# Assumption Type Handbook / 假设分类手册

A detailed reference for the 4-type assumption classification system used in Axiom Phase 3. This handbook provides identification methods, challenge strategies, real-world examples, and edge-case guidance in both Chinese and English.

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## Why Classification Matters / 为什么分类本身就是洞见

Most first-principles tools skip classification and jump straight to "question everything." But **different types of assumptions require fundamentally different challenge strategies**:

- Questioning a **physical fact** wastes time and credibility
- Questioning a **convention** requires checking if the environment has changed
- Questioning a **belief** requires finding whose experience shaped it
- Questioning an **interest-driven** assumption requires following the money

**The biggest "aha" moment** often comes when someone discovers that what they treated as an unchangeable fact is actually just a convention — or even an interest-driven narrative.

> 很多人第一次做分类时会震惊地发现：他们一直当成"事实"的东西，其实只是"惯例"，甚至是"利益驱动"。

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## The 4 Types in Detail / 四种假设类型详解

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### 🔵 Type 1: Physical Fact / 物理事实

**Definition / 定义:**
Laws of nature, mathematical truths, verified scientific constants, and logical tautologies. These cannot be changed by human will, policy, or belief.

自然规律、数学定理、已验证的科学常数、逻辑恒等式。不能被人类意志、政策或信念改变。

**Identification Questions / 识别问题:**
- Can you find a single genuine counterexample anywhere on Earth? / 你能在地球上找到一个真正的反例吗？
- Is this universally true regardless of culture, time, or context? / 这在所有文化、时间、语境下都成立吗？
- Would this still be true if every human disappeared? / 如果人类消失了，这还成立吗？
- Is this based on repeatable, measurable evidence? / 这是否基于可重复、可测量的证据？

**Challenge Strategy / 质疑策略:**
**Accept it. Do not waste energy.** If something is genuinely a physical fact, the correct response is to work within its constraints, not against them.

接受它。不要浪费精力质疑引力。如果确实是物理事实，正确的做法是在它的约束内工作。

**Examples / 示例:**

| ✅ Genuine Physical Facts | ❌ Often Misclassified As Facts |
|---------------------------|-------------------------------|
| Gravity exists (9.8 m/s²) | "Housing always appreciates" (convention) |
| Entropy increases over time | "You need 8 hours of sleep" (convention — varies by person) |
| Speed of light is constant | "People are rational economic actors" (belief) |
| Compound interest formula | "Innovation requires disruption" (interest-driven) |

**Common Misclassification Trap:**
People often classify **social patterns** or **statistical trends** as physical facts. "The economy always recovers" is a historical pattern, not a law of physics. "People resist change" is a tendency, not a constant.

> ⚠️ 常见误分类：把**社会规律**或**统计趋势**当成物理事实。"经济总会复苏"是历史规律，不是物理定律。

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### 🟡 Type 2: Historical Convention / 历史惯例

**Definition / 定义:**
Practices, rules, or beliefs that were once valid and widely adopted but originated in a specific context. The context may have changed, making the convention obsolete or optional.

曾经有效且被广泛采用的做法、规则或信念，但起源于特定语境。语境可能已经改变，使惯例过时或可选。

**Identification Questions / 识别问题:**
- When did this rule/practice originate? What was the world like then? / 这个规则/做法是什么时候起源的？那时的环境是什么样的？
- Has the underlying environment (technology, demographics, market, regulation) changed significantly since then? / 底层环境变了吗？
- Is this universal, or specific to a region/industry/era? / 这是普遍的，还是特定于某个地区/行业/时代？
- Who benefits from this convention continuing? / 谁因为这个惯例的延续而获益？
- What percentage of people who follow this convention actually get the promised result? / 遵循这个惯例的人中，多少比例真正得到了承诺的结果？

**Challenge Strategy / 质疑策略:**
**Check the timestamp.** Ask: "Was this true 20 years ago? Is it still true now? Will it be true in 10 years?" The key insight is that conventions carry enormous inertia — people follow them long after the original reason has disappeared.

检查时间戳。问："这在20年前成立吗？现在还成立吗？10年后呢？"关键洞见：惯例有巨大的惯性 — 人们在原始理由消失后很久仍然遵循它们。

**Examples / 示例:**

| Convention | Original Context | Changed Context |
|-----------|------------------|-----------------|
| 大学学历是好工作的门票 | 1990s: 大学生稀缺 | 2020s: 本科普及，技能导向增强 |
| "You must be in the office to be productive" | Pre-2020: Limited remote tools | Post-COVID: Remote infrastructure mature |
| 在一家公司待 5-10 年才算忠诚 | Lifetime employment era | Average tenure is now 2-3 years |
| "Real estate is the best investment for the middle class" | 1980-2010: Population growth + urbanization | 2020s+: Demographic decline in many countries |
| 创业要写完整的商业计划书 | Before Lean Startup methodology | Now: MVP → iterate → pivot is standard |
| "Get a STEM degree for job security" | Pre-AI era | AI is now disrupting STEM roles too |

**Cross-Cultural Note / 跨文化注意:**
Some conventions are deeply culture-specific:
- 🇨🇳 "35岁是职业分水岭" — This is a Chinese labor market convention, virtually unknown in the West
- 🇺🇸 "You should change jobs every 2-3 years" — This is an American tech industry convention, unusual in Japan or Germany
- 🇨🇳 "有房才能结婚" — Chinese marriage convention, not a global reality
- 🇺🇸 "Follow your passion" — American cultural narrative, less common in collectivist cultures

> 有些惯例是文化特有的。"35岁危机"几乎只存在于中国劳动力市场。"Follow your passion"主要是美国文化叙事。

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### 🔴 Type 3: Subjective Belief / 主观信念

**Definition / 定义:**
Conclusions drawn from personal experience, projected as general truths. The person genuinely believes them, but they are shaped by a narrow sample of experiences, cognitive biases, and emotional associations.

从个人经验中得出的结论，被投射为普遍真理。当事人真诚地相信它们，但它们是由有限的经验样本、认知偏差和情感联想塑造的。

**Identification Questions / 识别问题:**
- Who told you this? / 谁告诉你的？
- Have you personally verified this, or are you extrapolating from a small sample? / 你亲自验证过吗，还是从小样本推断？
- Could someone with different experiences reach the opposite conclusion? / 有不同经历的人能得出相反结论吗？
- Is this belief comfortable? Does it protect you from a harder truth? / 这个信念让你舒服吗？它是否保护你免受更难以面对的真相？
- If you discovered this belief was wrong, what would you have to do differently? / 如果发现这个信念是错的，你必须做出什么改变？

**Challenge Strategy / 质疑策略:**
**Seek counter-evidence.** Find people who did the opposite and succeeded, or people who followed this belief and failed. The goal isn't to disprove the belief, but to test its universality.

寻找反面证据。找到做了相反事情却成功的人，或遵循这个信念却失败的人。目标不是推翻信念，而是检验它的普遍性。

**Examples / 示例:**

| Subjective Belief | What It Actually Is |
|-------------------|---------------------|
| "我不适合做管理" | One bad management experience → generalized to identity |
| "I'm not a math person" | Early negative experience → self-limiting identity |
| "创业太冒险了" | Heard failure stories → availability bias |
| "My industry doesn't value X" | Based on one company's culture, not the industry |
| "我的性格不适合社交" | Introversion ≠ inability to build relationships |
| "Good developers don't need to be good at communication" | Belief that protects from discomfort |

**Red Flag — Belief Disguised As Fact:**
If someone says "That's just how it is" or "Everyone knows that" about something that isn't a physical law, it's almost certainly a belief or convention that has been promoted to "fact" status in their mind.

> 🚩 如果有人说"就是这样的"或"大家都知道"，但说的不是物理定律，那几乎肯定是信念或惯例被提升成了"事实"。

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### ⚫ Type 4: Interest-Driven / 利益驱动

**Definition / 定义:**
Assumptions that someone (an industry, company, influencer, or social group) actively propagates because they benefit from you believing them. This doesn't mean the claim is always false — but its truth is incidental to why it's being promoted.

某些人（行业、公司、意见领袖或社会群体）积极传播的假设，因为他们从你的相信中获益。这并不意味着这些说法总是假的 — 但它们被传播的原因不是因为真，而是因为有利可图。

**Identification Questions / 识别问题:**
- Who is promoting this idea? What do they sell? / 谁在推广这个观点？他们卖什么？
- Does the source of this information have a financial incentive for you to believe it? / 这个信息来源是否有经济动机让你相信？
- Would this idea still be popular if no one profited from it? / 如果没有人从中获利，这个观点还会流行吗？
- Is this framed as urgent? Urgency often serves the seller. / 这是否被包装成紧迫的？紧迫感通常服务于卖方。
- What's the null hypothesis — what happens if you do nothing? / 零假设是什么 — 如果你什么都不做会怎样？

**Challenge Strategy / 质疑策略:**
**Follow the money.** Trace the incentive chain from the idea back to whoever benefits. This doesn't automatically disprove the claim, but it changes how much weight you should give it.

追踪金钱链。从这个观点追溯到获益者。这并不自动推翻这个说法，但它改变了你应该给予它的权重。

**Examples / 示例:**

| Interest-Driven Assumption | Who Benefits |
|---------------------------|-------------|
| "你需要买保险来保护家人" | 保险公司和保险经纪人 |
| "AI will replace all jobs in 5 years" | AI companies raising funding |
| "创业是实现财务自由的唯一方式" | 创业培训课程、孵化器 |
| "You need to learn to code" (2015-2023) | Coding bootcamps, tech companies |
| "房价永远涨" | 房地产开发商、中介、银行 |
| "You need this certification to be competitive" | Certification providers |
| "知识付费是最好的自我投资" | 知识付费平台和课程制作者 |
| "Growth hacking is essential for startups" | Growth consultancies, SaaS tools |

**Cross-Cultural Note:**
- 🇨🇳 Chinese internet is saturated with interest-driven assumptions from: 知识付费 platforms, 房产中介, 保险销售, 创业导师, 消费主义 KOL
- 🇺🇸 American media is saturated with: VC-backed startup mythology, credentialism pushed by universities, lifestyle inflation pushed by advertising

> 中国互联网充满了知识付费、房产中介、保险销售的利益驱动假设。美国媒体充满了 VC 支持的创业神话和大学推动的学历主义。

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## Handling Mixed Types / 处理混合类型

Many real-world assumptions are **hybrids**. When you encounter one:

1. **Identify the primary type** — which type best describes the core mechanism?
2. **Note the secondary type** — what additional dynamics are at play?
3. **Apply the primary challenge strategy first**, then supplement with secondary

**Examples of Mixed Types / 混合类型示例:**

| Assumption | Primary | Secondary | Why |
|-----------|---------|-----------|-----|
| "现在是创业的好时机" | 🟡 Convention | ⚫ Interest-driven | The "good timing" narrative is a convention, but startup media amplifies it for clicks and funding |
| "A college degree pays for itself" | 🟡 Convention | ⚫ Interest-driven | Was true statistically, but universities have incentive to promote it regardless |
| "房价只涨不跌" | 🔴 Belief | 🟡 Convention | Personal experience from a specific era, reinforced by industry-wide convention |
| "Remote workers are less productive" | 🔴 Belief | 🟡 Convention | Manager's personal bias, reinforced by traditional management convention |

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## Edge Cases / 边界案例指南

### Statistical Trends vs Facts
"Men are taller than women on average" — This is a **statistical fact** (measurable, repeatable), but applying it to any individual is a **subjective belief**. Classify the assumption based on how the user is using it.

### Outdated Facts
"Pluto is a planet" — Was a physical fact, reclassified. If someone's assumption is based on an outdated fact, treat it as a **convention** that hasn't been updated.

### Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
"The stock market will crash" — If enough people believe this, they sell, and it crashes. Classify as **interest-driven** if the source benefits from the prediction, or **subjective belief** if it's the user's personal anxiety.

### Cultural Norms
"你应该30岁之前结婚" — This is a **convention** (culturally specific, has a historical basis), with potential **interest-driven** elements (family pressure, wedding industry).

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## Quick Reference Card / 快速参考卡

```
🔵 PHYSICAL FACT     → Can you find ANY counterexample? → No  → Accept it
🟡 HISTORICAL CONV.  → When did this rule form?         → Check if context changed
🔴 SUBJECTIVE BELIEF → Who told you this?               → Seek counter-evidence
⚫ INTEREST-DRIVEN   → Who profits from this?           → Follow the money
```

```
🔵 物理事实  → 能找到反例吗？       → 不能 → 接受
🟡 历史惯例  → 这个规则什么时候形成的？ → 检查环境是否已变
🔴 主观信念  → 谁告诉你的？          → 寻找反面证据
⚫ 利益驱动  → 谁因此获利？          → 追踪利益链
```
