{
  "source": "Curated from regulator advisories (NMDPRA, OGRA, EPRA, CAA), IEA monthly reports, operator press releases, and major-wire coverage",
  "methodologyUrl": "/docs/methodology/shortages",
  "version": "v1",
  "referenceYear": 2026,
  "classifierVersion": "v1",
  "shortages": {
    "pk-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "pk-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "PK",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2026-01-12T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["stations_closed", "rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["policy", "logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Retail petrol shortages across Punjab and Sindh from LC-approval delays for imports.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "OGRA", "title": "Retail supply advisory", "url": "https://www.ogra.org.pk/", "date": "2026-03-28", "sourceType": "regulator" },
          { "authority": "Reuters", "title": "Pakistan fuel queues return", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/", "date": "2026-03-10", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-03-28",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.88,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "lk-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "lk-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "LK",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-20T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "CPC ration quotas reduced across several districts; queues reported in Colombo suburbs.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Ceylon Petroleum Corporation", "title": "Quota revision notice", "url": "https://ceypetco.gov.lk/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "operator" },
          { "authority": "Daily Mirror", "title": "Fuel queues lengthen", "url": "https://www.dailymirror.lk/", "date": "2026-04-08", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null,
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.72,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ng-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ng-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "NG",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["stations_closed", "rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["upstream_refinery", "logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "NNPC supply gaps; PMS (petrol) queues in Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "NMDPRA", "title": "PMS supply monitoring bulletin", "url": "https://nmdpra.gov.ng/", "date": "2026-04-10", "sourceType": "regulator" },
          { "authority": "Premium Times", "title": "Petrol queues continue", "url": "https://www.premiumtimesng.com/", "date": "2026-04-12", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-10",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.9,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "cu-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "cu-diesel-2026-q1",
      "country": "CU",
      "product": "diesel",
      "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2025-11-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing", "import_cut"],
      "causeChain": ["import_cut", "policy"],
      "shortDescription": "Severe country-wide diesel shortfalls tied to reduced Venezuelan crude deliveries.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "MINCEX", "title": "Fuel import deliveries", "url": "https://www.mincex.gob.cu/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "regulator" },
          { "authority": "Reuters", "title": "Cuba tightens fuel rationing", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/", "date": "2026-03-15", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-01",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.92,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-20T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ve-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ve-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "VE",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2024-06-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["stations_closed", "rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["upstream_refinery", "sanction"],
      "shortDescription": "Chronic gasoline shortages outside Caracas tied to PDVSA refinery runs + OFAC constraints.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "PDVSA", "title": "Production bulletin", "url": "https://www.pdvsa.com/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "operator" },
          { "authority": "AP", "title": "Venezuelans queue hours for gas", "url": "https://apnews.com/", "date": "2026-03-28", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2024-06-15",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.94,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "lb-fuel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "lb-fuel-2026-q1",
      "country": "LB",
      "product": "diesel",
      "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["policy", "logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Persistent diesel shortages for private generator fleet keeping grid coverage.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Ministry of Energy and Water", "title": "Generator fuel allocation", "url": "https://www.energyandwater.gov.lb/", "date": "2026-03-20", "sourceType": "regulator" },
          { "authority": "L'Orient Today", "title": "Fuel crunch persists", "url": "https://today.lorientlejour.com/", "date": "2026-04-02", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2023-07-15",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.9,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "zw-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "zw-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "ZW",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "ZERA advisory on delivery delays; some stations intermittent.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "ZERA", "title": "Fuel availability bulletin", "url": "https://www.zera.co.zw/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-05",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.7,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ar-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ar-diesel-2026-q1",
      "country": "AR",
      "product": "diesel",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-10T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Harvest-season diesel demand outpacing supply in Pampa provinces.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "YPF", "title": "Agricultural diesel allocation", "url": "https://www.ypf.com/", "date": "2026-04-04", "sourceType": "operator" },
          { "authority": "La Nación", "title": "Escasez de gasoil en el campo", "url": "https://www.lanacion.com.ar/", "date": "2026-03-18", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null,
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.68,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ir-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ir-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "IR",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["upstream_refinery"],
      "shortDescription": "Reported quota reductions at card-activated pumps; refinery turnarounds.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "NIOPDC", "title": "Quota notice", "url": "https://www.niopdc.ir/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "operator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null,
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.65,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "bo-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "bo-diesel-2026-q1",
      "country": "BO",
      "product": "diesel",
      "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["stations_closed", "rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["import_cut", "policy"],
      "shortDescription": "YPFB diesel import shortfalls; country-wide trucker queues and freight disruption.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "YPFB", "title": "Comunicado sobre abastecimiento", "url": "https://www.ypfb.gob.bo/", "date": "2026-04-10", "sourceType": "operator" },
          { "authority": "Bloomberg", "title": "Bolivia fuel crisis deepens", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2025-10-15",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.93,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ng-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ng-diesel-2026-q1",
      "country": "NG",
      "product": "diesel",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["upstream_refinery"],
      "shortDescription": "AGO (diesel) pricing and availability pressure tracked alongside PMS supply bulletins.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "NMDPRA", "title": "AGO supply monitoring", "url": "https://nmdpra.gov.ng/", "date": "2026-04-12", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-12",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.7,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-16T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ke-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ke-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "KE",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Mombasa-Nairobi pipeline throughput advisory; select Nairobi stations limited.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "EPRA", "title": "Supply advisory", "url": "https://www.epra.go.ke/", "date": "2026-04-08", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-08",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.7,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-13T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "pa-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "pa-diesel-2026-q1",
      "country": "PA",
      "product": "jet",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["flights_cancelled"],
      "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Jet fuel delivery delays at Tocumen; intermittent airline tanker prioritization.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "AAC", "title": "Panama aviation fuel bulletin", "url": "https://www.aeronautica.gob.pa/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-05",
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.62,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-14T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "eg-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "eg-diesel-2026-q1",
      "country": "EG",
      "product": "diesel",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-15T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["policy"],
      "shortDescription": "Government-set pricing cap vs import cost; intermittent diesel availability at stations.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "EGPC", "title": "Supply update", "url": "https://www.egpc.com.eg/", "date": "2026-04-10", "sourceType": "operator" },
          { "authority": "Ahram Online", "title": "Diesel supply constrained", "url": "https://english.ahram.org.eg/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null,
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.68,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "by-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "by-petrol-2026-q1",
      "country": "BY",
      "product": "petrol",
      "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z",
      "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"],
      "causeChain": ["sanction"],
      "shortDescription": "Mozyr/Naftan refinery turnaround + export restrictions; consumer-facing pricing friction.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Belneftekhim", "title": "Refinery status", "url": "https://www.belneftekhim.by/", "date": "2026-04-02", "sourceType": "operator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null,
        "classifierVersion": "v1",
        "classifierConfidence": 0.6,
        "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "bd-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "bd-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "BD", "product": "diesel", "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2024-08-01T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["import_cut", "policy"],
      "shortDescription": "Recurring diesel import-LC delays; Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation rationing at depot level.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "BPC", "title": "Diesel supply bulletin", "url": "https://bpc.gov.bd/", "date": "2026-04-10", "sourceType": "regulator" },
          { "authority": "Daily Star", "title": "Diesel crunch returns", "url": "https://www.thedailystar.net/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-10", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.88, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "za-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "za-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "ZA", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-10T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["upstream_refinery", "logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Loadshedding-driven diesel demand for back-up generators; Sapref / Secunda refinery schedule impacts.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Department of Mineral Resources and Energy", "title": "Fuel supply status", "url": "https://www.dmre.gov.za/", "date": "2026-04-08", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-08", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.72, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-12T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ao-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ao-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "AO", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Luanda and Benguela diesel queues reported; Sonangol distribution delays.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Sonangol", "title": "Supply advisory", "url": "https://www.sonangol.co.ao/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "operator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null, "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.68, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-11T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "mz-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "mz-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "MZ", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-15T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["logistics", "policy"],
      "shortDescription": "FX-allocation delays for petroleum imports; depot availability inconsistent in Maputo + Beira.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "ARENE (Mozambique Energy Regulator)", "title": "Fuel supply update", "url": "https://arene.gov.mz/", "date": "2026-04-02", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-02", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.72, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "zm-fuel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "zm-fuel-2026-q1", "country": "ZM", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["import_cut", "policy"],
      "shortDescription": "Mining sector diesel demand amid FX constraints; TAZAMA pipeline product import sequencing tight.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Energy Regulation Board", "title": "Fuel availability bulletin", "url": "https://www.erb.org.zm/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-01", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.7, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "mw-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "mw-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "MW", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing", "stations_closed"], "causeChain": ["import_cut"],
      "shortDescription": "Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority rationing announcements during FX shortfalls.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "MERA (Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority)", "title": "Fuel status", "url": "https://www.mera.mw/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-01", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.75, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "gh-petrol-2026-q1": {
      "id": "gh-petrol-2026-q1", "country": "GH", "product": "petrol", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "NPA import sequencing tightness after Tema port congestion.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "National Petroleum Authority", "title": "Supply advisory", "url": "https://www.npa.gov.gh/", "date": "2026-04-03", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-03", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.7, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "mm-fuel-oil-2026-q1": {
      "id": "mm-fuel-oil-2026-q1", "country": "MM", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing", "stations_closed"], "causeChain": ["sanction", "import_cut"],
      "shortDescription": "Post-coup chronic diesel shortages + military-aligned distribution system; parallel market premiums 40-60%. Severity kept at 'watch' because regulator sources under the junta are not independently verifiable — press-only evidence.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Reuters", "title": "Myanmar fuel rationing", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/", "date": "2026-03-01", "sourceType": "press" },
          { "authority": "Frontier Myanmar", "title": "Parallel market fuel premiums", "url": "https://www.frontiermyanmar.net/", "date": "2026-02-15", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null, "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.82, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-17T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "mn-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "mn-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "MN", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2025-12-10T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Winter-season diesel shortages amid Russian import logistics + extreme cold.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "MRAM (Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority)", "title": "Winter fuel supply", "url": "https://mram.gov.mn/", "date": "2026-02-15", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-02-15", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.72, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "co-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "co-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "CO", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing"], "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Trucker strikes + price-adjustment protests intermittent; distribution disruptions at regional level.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Ministerio de Minas y Energía", "title": "Abastecimiento de combustibles", "url": "https://www.minenergia.gov.co/", "date": "2026-04-01", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2026-04-01", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.68, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "ua-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "ua-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "UA", "product": "diesel", "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2022-03-01T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing", "price_spike"], "causeChain": ["war", "upstream_refinery"],
      "shortDescription": "War-driven chronic diesel supply stress; refinery strikes + import corridor constraints.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Ministry of Energy of Ukraine", "title": "Fuel availability", "url": "https://www.mev.gov.ua/", "date": "2026-04-05", "sourceType": "regulator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2022-03-15", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.92, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-19T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "sy-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "sy-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "SY", "product": "diesel", "severity": "confirmed",
      "firstSeen": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing", "stations_closed"], "causeChain": ["sanction", "war"],
      "shortDescription": "Chronic diesel rationing under Caesar Act sanctions + disrupted Iranian credit-line imports.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Syrian Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources", "title": "Fuel allocation", "url": "https://sana.sy/en/", "date": "2026-04-10", "sourceType": "regulator" },
          { "authority": "AFP", "title": "Syria queues stretch", "url": "https://www.afp.com/", "date": "2026-03-20", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": "2020-06-17", "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.92, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "sd-diesel-2026-q1": {
      "id": "sd-diesel-2026-q1", "country": "SD", "product": "diesel", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2023-04-15T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["rationing", "stations_closed"], "causeChain": ["war", "import_cut"],
      "shortDescription": "Sudan civil war has disrupted Port Sudan imports + crude transit infrastructure; diesel rationing country-wide. Severity kept at 'watch' until regulator/operator evidence is available — press-only during active conflict.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Reuters", "title": "Sudan fuel shortages worsen", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/", "date": "2026-03-25", "sourceType": "press" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null, "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.88, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-18T00:00:00Z"
      }
    },
    "de-heating-oil-2026-q1": {
      "id": "de-heating-oil-2026-q1", "country": "DE", "product": "heating_oil", "severity": "watch",
      "firstSeen": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z", "lastConfirmed": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "resolvedAt": null,
      "impactTypes": ["price_spike"], "causeChain": ["logistics"],
      "shortDescription": "Heating-oil delivery slots tightening before winter refill season amid Rhine low-water logistic constraints.",
      "evidence": {
        "evidenceSources": [
          { "authority": "Mineralölwirtschaftsverband (MWV)", "title": "Heizöl supply outlook", "url": "https://www.en2x.de/", "date": "2026-03-30", "sourceType": "operator" }
        ],
        "firstRegulatorConfirmation": null, "classifierVersion": "v1", "classifierConfidence": 0.62, "lastEvidenceUpdate": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z"
      }
    }
  }
}
