fix(scoring): scope "critical" to geopolitical events, not domestic tragedies (#3221)

The weight rebalance (PR #3144) amplified a prompt gap: domestic mass
shootings (e.g. "8 children killed in Louisiana") scored 88 because the
LLM classified them as "critical" (mass-casualty 10+ killed) and the
55% severity weight pushed them into the critical gate. But WorldMonitor
is a geopolitical monitor — domestic tragedies are terrible but not
geopolitically destabilizing.

Prompt change (both ais-relay.cjs + classify-event.ts):
- "critical" now explicitly requires GEOPOLITICAL scope: "events that
  destabilize international order, threaten cross-border security, or
  disrupt global systems"
- Domestic mass-casualty events (mass shootings, industrial accidents)
  moved to "high" — still important, but not critical-sensitivity alerts
- Added counterexamples: "8 children killed in mass shooting in
  Louisiana → domestic mass-casualty → high" and "23 killed in fireworks
  factory explosion → industrial accident → high"
- Retained: "700 killed in Sudan drone strikes → geopolitical mass-
  casualty in active civil war → critical"

Classify cache: v2→v3 (bust stale entries that lack geopolitical scope).
Shadow-log: v4→v5 (clean dataset for recalibration under the scoped prompt).

🤖 Generated with Claude Opus 4.6 via Claude Code

Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

server/_shared/cache-keys.ts

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ export const STORY_TRACKING_TTL_S = 172800;
  * TTL for all: 172800s (48h), refreshed each digest cycle.
  * Shadow scoring key (written by notification-relay.cjs, which owns the live
  * value — the constant here is documentation only, not imported):
- *   shadow:score-log:v4            ZSet   score=epoch_ms, member=JSON{ts,importanceScore,severity,eventType,title,source,publishedAt,corroborationCount,variant}
+ *   shadow:score-log:v5            ZSet   score=epoch_ms, member=JSON{ts,importanceScore,severity,eventType,title,source,publishedAt,corroborationCount,variant}
  *   shadow:score-log:v3            ZSet   legacy (weight rebalance) — self-prunes via 7d ZREMRANGEBYSCORE
  *   shadow:score-log:v2            ZSet   legacy (stale-score fix) — self-prunes
  *   shadow:score-log:v1            ZSet   legacy (pre-PR #3069) — self-prunes
@@ -32,10 +32,10 @@ export const STORY_SOURCES_KEY = (titleHash: string) => `story:sources:v1:${titl
 export const STORY_PEAK_KEY = (titleHash: string) => `story:peak:v1:${titleHash}`;
 export const DIGEST_ACCUMULATOR_KEY = (variant: string, lang = 'en') => `digest:accumulator:v1:${variant}:${lang}`;
 export const DIGEST_LAST_SENT_KEY = (userId: string, variant: string) => `digest:last-sent:v1:${userId}:${variant}`;
-// NOTE: notification-relay.cjs owns the live value (shadow:score-log:v4 since prompt upgrade).
+// NOTE: notification-relay.cjs owns the live value (shadow:score-log:v5 since prompt upgrade).
 // This export is documentation/discoverability; changing it here does NOT affect the relay.
 // If you modify the key, also update scripts/notification-relay.cjs SHADOW_SCORE_LOG_KEY.
-export const SHADOW_SCORE_LOG_KEY = 'shadow:score-log:v4';
+export const SHADOW_SCORE_LOG_KEY = 'shadow:score-log:v5';
 export const STORY_TTL = 604800;           // 7 days — enough for sustained multi-day stories
 export const DIGEST_ACCUMULATOR_TTL = 172800; // 48h — lookback window for digest content
 

server/worldmonitor/intelligence/v1/_shared.ts

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import { hashString, sha256Hex } from '../../../_shared/hash';
 // ========================================================================
 
 export const UPSTREAM_TIMEOUT_MS = 25_000;
-const CLASSIFY_CACHE_PREFIX = 'classify:sebuf:v2:';
+const CLASSIFY_CACHE_PREFIX = 'classify:sebuf:v3:';
 
 // ========================================================================
 // Tier-1 country definitions (used by risk-scores + country-intel-brief)

server/worldmonitor/intelligence/v1/classify-event.ts

@@ -52,19 +52,20 @@ export async function classifyEvent(
 Levels: critical, high, medium, low, info
 Categories: conflict, protest, disaster, diplomatic, economic, terrorism, cyber, health, environmental, military, crime, infrastructure, tech, general
 
-Guidelines for LEVEL assignment:
-- critical: Active military strikes, mass-casualty events (10+ killed), ceasefire agreements/collapses, nuclear incidents, pandemic declarations, coups, strait/waterway closures
-- high: Armed conflict updates, major diplomatic actions, sanctions packages, significant natural disasters, blockades, terrorist attacks
+Guidelines for LEVEL assignment (geopolitical scope required for critical):
+- critical: Active military strikes with international implications, geopolitical mass-casualty events (10+ killed in conflict/terrorism/state action), ceasefire agreements/collapses, nuclear incidents, pandemic declarations, coups, strait/waterway closures
+- high: Armed conflict updates, major diplomatic actions, sanctions packages, significant natural disasters, blockades, terrorist attacks, domestic mass-casualty events (mass shootings, industrial disasters)
 - medium: Ongoing conflict analysis, economic impact reports, protest movements, regional policy changes, military exercises
 - low: Diplomatic meetings, trade discussions, humanitarian aid, election updates, peacekeeping deployments
 - info: Opinion/editorial pieces, analysis/explainer articles, historical retrospectives, lifestyle, entertainment, routine local news, tutorials
 
-Key distinction: classify by THE EVENT, not the headline's emotional tone.
-- "Guardian view on ceasefire: need real peace" → editorial, not a ceasefire → info
-- "Trump's obsession with energy" → opinion/analysis → info
-- "Man killed his estranged wife" → domestic crime, not geopolitical → info
+Key distinction: "critical" requires GEOPOLITICAL scope — events that destabilize international order, threaten cross-border security, or disrupt global systems. Domestic tragedies are "high" unless they trigger international diplomatic responses.
+- "8 children killed in mass shooting in Louisiana" → domestic mass-casualty → high
+- "23 killed in fireworks factory explosion" → industrial accident → high
+- "700 killed in Sudan drone strikes" → geopolitical mass-casualty → critical
+- "Iran closes Strait of Hormuz" → global trade disruption → critical
+- "Man killed his estranged wife" → domestic crime → info
 - "How to Crack the SAM Database" → tutorial → info
-- "700 killed in Sudan drone strikes" → mass-casualty → critical
 
 Focus: geopolitical events, conflicts, disasters, diplomacy.
 Classify by real-world event severity, not headline sentiment.

server/worldmonitor/news/v1/list-feed-digest.ts

@@ -275,7 +275,7 @@ async function enrichWithAiCache(items: ParsedItem[]): Promise<void> {
   const keyMap = new Map<string, ParsedItem[]>();
   for (const item of candidates) {
     const hash = (await sha256Hex(item.title.toLowerCase())).slice(0, 16);
-    const key = `classify:sebuf:v2:${hash}`;
+    const key = `classify:sebuf:v3:${hash}`;
     const existing = keyMap.get(key) ?? [];
     existing.push(item);
     keyMap.set(key, existing);