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* feat(intelligence): emit news:threat:summary:v1 from relay classify loop for CII
During seedClassifyForVariant(), attribute each title to ISO2 countries
while both title and classification result are in scope. At the end of
seedClassify(), merge per-country threat counts across all variants and
write news:threat:summary:v1 (20min TTL) with { byCountry: { [iso2]: {
critical, high, medium, low, info } }, generatedAt }.
get-risk-scores.ts reads the new key via fetchAuxiliarySources() and
applies weighted scores (critical→4, high→2, medium→1, low→0.5, info→0,
capped at 20) per country into the information component of CII eventScore.
Closes #2053
* fix(intelligence): register news:threat-summary in health.js and expand tests
- Add newsThreatSummary to BOOTSTRAP_KEYS (seed-meta:news:threat-summary,
maxStaleMin: 60) so relay classify outages surface in health dashboard
- Add 4 tests: boost verification, cap-at-20, unknown-country safety,
null-threatSummary zero baseline
* fix(classify): de-dup cross-variant titles and attribute to last-mentioned country
P1-A: seedClassify() was summing byCountry across all 5 variants (full/tech/
finance/happy/commodity) without de-duplicating. Shared feeds (CNBC, Yahoo
Finance, FT, HN, Ars) let a single headline count up to 4x before reaching
CII, saturating threatSummaryScore on one story.
Fix: pass seenTitles Set into seedClassifyForVariant; skip attribution for
titles already counted by an earlier variant.
P1-B: matchCountryNamesInText() was attributing every country mentioned in a
headline equally. "UK and US launch strikes on Yemen" raised GB, US, and YE
with identical weight, inflating actor-country CII.
Fix: return only the last country in document order — the grammatical object
of the headline, which is the primary affected country in SVO structure.
* fix(classify): replace last-position heuristic with preposition-pattern attribution
The previous "last-mentioned country" fix still failed for:
- "Yemen says UK and US strikes hit Hodeidah" → returned US (wrong)
- "US strikes on Yemen condemned by Iran" → returned IR (wrong)
Both failures stem from position not conveying grammatical role. Switch to a
preposition/verb-pattern approach: only attribute to a country that immediately
follows a locative preposition (in/on/against/at/into/targeting/toward) or an
attack verb (invades/attacks/bombs/hits/strikes). No pattern match → return []
(skip attribution rather than attribute to the wrong country).
* fix(classify): fix regex hitting, gaza/hamas geo mapping, seed-meta always written
- hitt?(?:ing|s)? instead of hit(?:s|ting)? so "hitting" is matched
- gaza → PS (Palestinian Territories), hamas → PS (was IL)
- seed-meta:news:threat-summary written unconditionally so health check
does not fire false alerts during no-attribution runs
This commit is contained in:
Elie Habib
@@ -208,6 +208,7 @@ const SEED_META = {
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euGasStorage: { key: 'seed-meta:economic:eu-gas-storage', maxStaleMin: 2880 }, // daily seed (T+1); 2880min = 48h = 2x interval
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euYieldCurve: { key: 'seed-meta:economic:yield-curve-eu', maxStaleMin: 2880 }, // daily seed (weekdays); 2880min = 48h = 2x interval
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euFsi: { key: 'seed-meta:economic:fsi-eu', maxStaleMin: 20160 }, // weekly seed (Saturday); 20160min = 14d = 2x interval
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newsThreatSummary: { key: 'seed-meta:news:threat-summary', maxStaleMin: 60 }, // relay classify every ~20min; 60min = 3x interval
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};
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// Standalone keys that are populated on-demand by RPC handlers (not seeds).
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@@ -2802,6 +2802,83 @@ Output: [{"i":0,"l":"high","c":"conflict"}, ...]
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Focus: geopolitical events, conflicts, disasters, diplomacy. Classify by real-world severity and impact.`;
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const NEWS_THREAT_SUMMARY_KEY = 'news:threat:summary:v1';
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const NEWS_THREAT_SUMMARY_TTL = 1200; // 20 min — aligns with relay cadence
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// Country name → ISO2 for threat summary geo-attribution (inline to avoid ESM import)
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const THREAT_COUNTRY_NAME_TO_ISO2 = {
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'afghanistan':'AF','albania':'AL','algeria':'DZ','angola':'AO','argentina':'AR',
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'armenia':'AM','australia':'AU','austria':'AT','azerbaijan':'AZ','bahrain':'BH',
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'bangladesh':'BD','belarus':'BY','belgium':'BE','bolivia':'BO','brazil':'BR',
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'burkina faso':'BF','burma':'MM','cambodia':'KH','cameroon':'CM','canada':'CA',
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'chad':'TD','chile':'CL','china':'CN','colombia':'CO','congo':'CG',
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'costa rica':'CR','croatia':'HR','cuba':'CU','cyprus':'CY',
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'czech republic':'CZ','czechia':'CZ',
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'democratic republic of the congo':'CD','dr congo':'CD','drc':'CD',
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'denmark':'DK','djibouti':'DJ','dominican republic':'DO',
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'ecuador':'EC','egypt':'EG','el salvador':'SV','eritrea':'ER',
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'estonia':'EE','ethiopia':'ET','finland':'FI','france':'FR',
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'georgia':'GE','germany':'DE','ghana':'GH','greece':'GR',
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'guatemala':'GT','guinea':'GN','haiti':'HT','honduras':'HN','hungary':'HU',
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'iceland':'IS','india':'IN','indonesia':'ID','iran':'IR','iraq':'IQ',
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'ireland':'IE','israel':'IL','italy':'IT','ivory coast':'CI',
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'jamaica':'JM','japan':'JP','jordan':'JO','kazakhstan':'KZ',
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'kenya':'KE','kosovo':'XK','kuwait':'KW','kyrgyzstan':'KG',
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'laos':'LA','latvia':'LV','lebanon':'LB','libya':'LY','lithuania':'LT',
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'mali':'ML','mauritania':'MR','mexico':'MX','moldova':'MD',
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'mongolia':'MN','montenegro':'ME','morocco':'MA','mozambique':'MZ',
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'myanmar':'MM','namibia':'NA','nepal':'NP','netherlands':'NL',
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'new zealand':'NZ','nicaragua':'NI','niger':'NE','nigeria':'NG',
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'north korea':'KP','north macedonia':'MK','norway':'NO',
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'oman':'OM','pakistan':'PK','palestine':'PS','panama':'PA',
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'paraguay':'PY','peru':'PE','philippines':'PH','poland':'PL',
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'portugal':'PT','qatar':'QA','romania':'RO','russia':'RU','rwanda':'RW',
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'saudi arabia':'SA','senegal':'SN','serbia':'RS','sierra leone':'SL',
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'singapore':'SG','slovakia':'SK','slovenia':'SI','somalia':'SO',
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'south africa':'ZA','south korea':'KR','south sudan':'SS','spain':'ES',
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'sri lanka':'LK','sudan':'SD','sweden':'SE','switzerland':'CH',
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'syria':'SY','taiwan':'TW','tajikistan':'TJ','tanzania':'TZ',
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'thailand':'TH','togo':'TG','tunisia':'TN','turkey':'TR',
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'turkmenistan':'TM','uganda':'UG','ukraine':'UA',
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'united arab emirates':'AE','uae':'AE',
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'united kingdom':'GB','uk':'GB','united states':'US','usa':'US',
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'uruguay':'UY','uzbekistan':'UZ','venezuela':'VE','vietnam':'VN',
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'yemen':'YE','zambia':'ZM','zimbabwe':'ZW',
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// Key aliases
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'tehran':'IR','moscow':'RU','beijing':'CN','kyiv':'UA','pyongyang':'KP',
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'tel aviv':'IL','gaza':'PS','damascus':'SY','sanaa':'YE','houthi':'YE',
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'kremlin':'RU','pentagon':'US','nato':'','irgc':'IR','hezbollah':'LB',
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'hamas':'PS','taliban':'AF','riyadh':'SA','ankara':'TR',
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};
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// Sort by name length desc so longer multi-word names match first (used for tie-breaking same position)
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const THREAT_COUNTRY_NAME_ENTRIES = Object.entries(THREAT_COUNTRY_NAME_TO_ISO2)
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.filter(([name, iso2]) => name.length >= 3 && iso2.length === 2)
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.sort((a, b) => b[0].length - a[0].length)
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.map(([name, iso2]) => ({ name, iso2, regex: new RegExp(`\\b${name.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\]\\]/g, '\\$&')}\\b`, 'i') }));
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// Returns the single primary affected country — the country appearing immediately after a
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// locative preposition or attack verb, which marks the grammatical object/affected entity.
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// Returns [] when no such pattern fires (no attribution is better than wrong attribution).
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// "UK and US launch strikes on Yemen" → ['YE']
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// "US strikes on Yemen condemned by Iran" → ['YE'] (Iran is a reactor, not affected)
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// "Yemen says UK and US strikes hit Hodeidah" → [] (Hodeidah is a city, skip)
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// "Russia invades Ukraine" → ['UA']
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const AFFECTED_PREFIX_RE = /\b(in|on|against|at|into|across|inside|targeting|toward[s]?|invad(?:es?|ed|ing)|attack(?:s|ed|ing)?|bomb(?:s|ed|ing)?|hitt?(?:ing|s)?|strik(?:es?|ing))\s+(?:the\s+)?/gi;
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function matchCountryNamesInText(text) {
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const lower = text.toLowerCase();
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let match;
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AFFECTED_PREFIX_RE.lastIndex = 0;
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while ((match = AFFECTED_PREFIX_RE.exec(lower)) !== null) {
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const afterPfx = lower.slice(match.index + match[0].length);
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for (const { name, iso2 } of THREAT_COUNTRY_NAME_ENTRIES) {
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if (afterPfx.startsWith(name) && (afterPfx.length === name.length || /\W/.test(afterPfx[name.length]))) {
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return [iso2];
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}
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}
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}
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return [];
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}
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function classifyCacheKey(title) {
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const hash = crypto.createHash('sha256').update(title.toLowerCase()).digest('hex').slice(0, 16);
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return `classify:sebuf:v1:${hash}`;
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@@ -2907,7 +2984,7 @@ async function classifyFetchLlm(titles) {
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let classifyInFlight = false;
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async function seedClassifyForVariant(variant) {
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async function seedClassifyForVariant(variant, seenTitles) {
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const digestUrl = `https://api.worldmonitor.app/api/news/v1/list-feed-digest?variant=${variant}&lang=en`;
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let digest;
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try {
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@@ -2945,11 +3022,30 @@ async function seedClassifyForVariant(variant) {
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const cached = await upstashMGet(cacheKeys);
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const misses = [];
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// byCountry accumulates threat counts while title+level are in scope
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const byCountry = {};
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const emptyLevel = () => ({ critical: 0, high: 0, medium: 0, low: 0, info: 0 });
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for (let i = 0; i < titleArr.length; i++) {
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if (!cached[i]) misses.push(titleArr[i]);
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const hit = cached[i];
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if (!hit) {
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misses.push(titleArr[i]);
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continue;
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}
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// Attribute cached hits while we still have the title
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let parsed = hit;
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if (typeof hit === 'string') { try { parsed = JSON.parse(hit); } catch { continue; } }
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const level = parsed?.level;
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if (!CLASSIFY_VALID_LEVELS.includes(level)) continue;
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if (seenTitles.has(titleArr[i])) continue;
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seenTitles.add(titleArr[i]);
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for (const code of matchCountryNamesInText(titleArr[i])) {
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if (!byCountry[code]) byCountry[code] = emptyLevel();
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byCountry[code][level]++;
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}
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}
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if (misses.length === 0) return { total: titleArr.length, classified: 0, skipped: 0 };
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if (misses.length === 0) return { total: titleArr.length, classified: 0, skipped: 0, byCountry };
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let classified = 0;
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let skipped = 0;
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@@ -2977,6 +3073,14 @@ async function seedClassifyForVariant(variant) {
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classifiedSet.add(idx);
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await upstashSet(classifyCacheKey(chunk[idx]), { level, category, timestamp: Date.now() }, CLASSIFY_CACHE_TTL);
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classified++;
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// Attribute newly classified title while it's still in scope
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if (!seenTitles.has(chunk[idx])) {
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seenTitles.add(chunk[idx]);
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for (const code of matchCountryNamesInText(chunk[idx])) {
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if (!byCountry[code]) byCountry[code] = emptyLevel();
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byCountry[code][level]++;
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}
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}
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}
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for (let i = 0; i < chunk.length; i++) {
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@@ -2987,7 +3091,7 @@ async function seedClassifyForVariant(variant) {
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}
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}
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return { total: titleArr.length, classified, skipped };
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return { total: titleArr.length, classified, skipped, byCountry };
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}
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async function seedClassify() {
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@@ -3003,18 +3107,32 @@ async function seedClassify() {
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let totalClassified = 0;
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let totalSkipped = 0;
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const mergedByCountry = {};
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const seenTitles = new Set();
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for (let v = 0; v < CLASSIFY_VARIANTS.length; v++) {
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if (v > 0) await new Promise((r) => setTimeout(r, CLASSIFY_VARIANT_STAGGER_MS));
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try {
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const stats = await seedClassifyForVariant(CLASSIFY_VARIANTS[v]);
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const stats = await seedClassifyForVariant(CLASSIFY_VARIANTS[v], seenTitles);
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totalClassified += stats.classified;
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totalSkipped += stats.skipped;
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console.log(`[Classify] ${CLASSIFY_VARIANTS[v]}: ${stats.total} titles, ${stats.classified} classified, ${stats.skipped} skipped`);
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for (const [code, counts] of Object.entries(stats.byCountry || {})) {
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if (!mergedByCountry[code]) mergedByCountry[code] = { critical: 0, high: 0, medium: 0, low: 0, info: 0 };
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for (const lvl of ['critical', 'high', 'medium', 'low', 'info']) {
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mergedByCountry[code][lvl] += counts[lvl] || 0;
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}
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}
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} catch (e) {
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console.warn(`[Classify] ${CLASSIFY_VARIANTS[v]} error:`, e?.message || e);
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}
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}
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await upstashSet('seed-meta:news:threat-summary', { fetchedAt: Date.now(), recordCount: Object.keys(mergedByCountry).length }, 604800);
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if (Object.keys(mergedByCountry).length > 0) {
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await upstashSet(NEWS_THREAT_SUMMARY_KEY, { byCountry: mergedByCountry, generatedAt: Date.now() }, NEWS_THREAT_SUMMARY_TTL);
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console.log(`[Classify] Threat summary written for ${Object.keys(mergedByCountry).length} countries`);
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}
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await upstashSet('seed-meta:classify', { fetchedAt: Date.now(), recordCount: totalClassified }, 604800);
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console.log(`[Classify] Done in ${((Date.now() - t0) / 1000).toFixed(1)}s — ${totalClassified} classified, ${totalSkipped} skipped`);
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} catch (e) {
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@@ -176,6 +176,7 @@ interface CountrySignals {
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advisoryLevel: 'do-not-travel' | 'reconsider' | 'caution' | null;
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totalDisplaced: number;
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newsScore: number;
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threatSummaryScore: number;
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}
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function emptySignals(): CountrySignals {
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@@ -191,6 +192,7 @@ function emptySignals(): CountrySignals {
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advisoryLevel: null,
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totalDisplaced: 0,
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newsScore: 0,
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threatSummaryScore: 0,
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};
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}
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@@ -236,11 +238,13 @@ interface AuxiliarySources {
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// Per-country displaced population by ISO3 code (UNHCR — persists after ceasefires)
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displacedByIso3: Record<string, number>;
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newsTopStories: Array<{ countryCode: string | null; threatLevel: string; primaryTitle: string }>;
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// Per-country classified headline counts from relay seedClassify() — written to news:threat:summary:v1
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threatSummaryByCountry: Record<string, { critical: number; high: number; medium: number; low: number; info: number }> | null;
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}
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async function fetchAuxiliarySources(): Promise<AuxiliarySources> {
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const currentYear = new Date().getFullYear();
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const [ucdpRaw, outagesRaw, climateRaw, cyberRaw, firesRaw, gpsRaw, iranRaw, orefRaw, advisoriesRaw, displacementRaw, insightsRaw] = await Promise.all([
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const [ucdpRaw, outagesRaw, climateRaw, cyberRaw, firesRaw, gpsRaw, iranRaw, orefRaw, advisoriesRaw, displacementRaw, insightsRaw, threatSummaryRaw] = await Promise.all([
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getCachedJson('conflict:ucdp-events:v1', true).catch(() => null),
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getCachedJson('infra:outages:v1', true).catch(() => null),
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getCachedJson('climate:anomalies:v1', true).catch(() => null),
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@@ -255,6 +259,7 @@ async function fetchAuxiliarySources(): Promise<AuxiliarySources> {
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.catch(() => null)
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.then(d => d ?? getCachedJson(`displacement:summary:v1:${currentYear - 1}`, true).catch(() => null)),
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getCachedJson('news:insights:v1', true).catch(() => null),
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getCachedJson('news:threat:summary:v1', true).catch(() => null),
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]);
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const arr = (v: any, field?: string, maxLen = 10000) => {
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let a: any[];
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@@ -294,6 +299,10 @@ async function fetchAuxiliarySources(): Promise<AuxiliarySources> {
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threatLevel: typeof s.threatLevel === 'string' ? s.threatLevel.toLowerCase() : 'low',
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primaryTitle: typeof s.primaryTitle === 'string' ? s.primaryTitle : '',
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}));
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const threatSummaryByCountry: AuxiliarySources['threatSummaryByCountry'] =
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threatSummaryRaw && typeof threatSummaryRaw === 'object' && (threatSummaryRaw as any).byCountry
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? (threatSummaryRaw as any).byCountry
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: null;
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return {
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ucdpEvents: arr(ucdpRaw, 'events'),
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@@ -309,6 +318,7 @@ async function fetchAuxiliarySources(): Promise<AuxiliarySources> {
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: null,
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displacedByIso3,
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newsTopStories,
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threatSummaryByCountry,
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};
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}
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@@ -444,6 +454,20 @@ export function computeCIIScores(
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if (signals) signals.newsScore += weight;
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}
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// --- News threat summary (from relay seedClassify — all classified headlines) ---
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if (aux.threatSummaryByCountry) {
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const SUMMARY_WEIGHT: Record<string, number> = { critical: 4, high: 2, medium: 1, low: 0.5, info: 0 };
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for (const [code, counts] of Object.entries(aux.threatSummaryByCountry)) {
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const signals = data[code];
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if (!signals) continue;
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let score = 0;
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for (const [lvl, w] of Object.entries(SUMMARY_WEIGHT)) {
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score += (counts[lvl as keyof typeof counts] || 0) * w;
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}
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signals.threatSummaryScore = Math.min(20, score);
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}
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}
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// --- Scoring ---
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const scores: CiiScore[] = [];
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for (const code of Object.keys(TIER1_COUNTRIES)) {
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@@ -475,7 +499,7 @@ export function computeCIIScores(
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const gpsJammingScore = Math.min(35, d.gpsHighCount * 5 + d.gpsMediumCount * 2);
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const security = Math.min(100, Math.round(gpsJammingScore));
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const information = Math.min(20, d.newsScore);
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const information = Math.min(20, d.newsScore + d.threatSummaryScore);
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const eventScore = unrest * 0.25 + conflict * 0.30 + security * 0.20 + information * 0.25;
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@@ -600,7 +624,7 @@ export async function getRiskScores(
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const stale = (await getCachedJson(RISK_STALE_CACHE_KEY)) as GetRiskScoresResponse | null;
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if (stale) return stale;
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const emptyAux: AuxiliarySources = { ucdpEvents: [], outages: [], climate: [], cyber: [], fires: [], gpsHexes: [], iranEvents: [], orefData: null, advisories: null, displacedByIso3: {}, newsTopStories: [] };
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const emptyAux: AuxiliarySources = { ucdpEvents: [], outages: [], climate: [], cyber: [], fires: [], gpsHexes: [], iranEvents: [], orefData: null, advisories: null, displacedByIso3: {}, newsTopStories: [], threatSummaryByCountry: null };
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const ciiScores = computeCIIScores([], emptyAux);
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return { ciiScores, strategicRisks: computeStrategicRisks(ciiScores) };
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}
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@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ function emptyAux() {
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advisories: null as { byCountry: Record<string, 'do-not-travel' | 'reconsider' | 'caution'> } | null,
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displacedByIso3: {} as Record<string, number>,
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newsTopStories: [] as Array<{ countryCode: string | null; threatLevel: string; primaryTitle: string }>,
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threatSummaryByCountry: null as Record<string, { critical: number; high: number; medium: number; low: number; info: number }> | null,
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};
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}
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@@ -191,6 +192,16 @@ describe('CII scoring', () => {
|
||||
`RU with critical news (${withNews.combinedScore}) should exceed baseline (${withoutNews.combinedScore})`);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('threatSummaryByCountry boosts newsActivity for target country', () => {
|
||||
const aux = emptyAux();
|
||||
aux.threatSummaryByCountry = { RU: { critical: 3, high: 2, medium: 1, low: 1, info: 0 } };
|
||||
const withThreat = scoreFor(computeCIIScores([], aux), 'RU')!;
|
||||
const withoutThreat = scoreFor(computeCIIScores([], emptyAux()), 'RU')!;
|
||||
assert.ok(withThreat.components!.newsActivity > 0, 'newsActivity should be > 0 with threat summary');
|
||||
assert.ok(withThreat.combinedScore > withoutThreat.combinedScore,
|
||||
`RU with threat summary (${withThreat.combinedScore}) should exceed baseline (${withoutThreat.combinedScore})`);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('newsTopStories newsActivity capped at 20', () => {
|
||||
const aux = emptyAux();
|
||||
aux.newsTopStories = Array.from({ length: 20 }, () => ({
|
||||
@@ -201,6 +212,14 @@ describe('CII scoring', () => {
|
||||
assert.ok(sy.components!.newsActivity <= 20, `newsActivity ${sy.components!.newsActivity} should be capped at 20`);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('threatSummaryByCountry newsActivity capped at 20', () => {
|
||||
const aux = emptyAux();
|
||||
aux.threatSummaryByCountry = { SY: { critical: 100, high: 100, medium: 100, low: 100, info: 100 } };
|
||||
const scores = computeCIIScores([], aux);
|
||||
const sy = scoreFor(scores, 'SY')!;
|
||||
assert.ok(sy.components!.newsActivity <= 20, `newsActivity ${sy.components!.newsActivity} should be capped at 20`);
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('newsTopStories moderate threat contributes (not silently dropped)', () => {
|
||||
const aux = emptyAux();
|
||||
aux.newsTopStories = [
|
||||
@@ -235,4 +254,17 @@ describe('CII scoring', () => {
|
||||
assert.equal(withInfo.components!.newsActivity, withoutNews.components!.newsActivity,
|
||||
'info threat level should not affect newsActivity');
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('threatSummaryByCountry unknown country code is safely ignored', () => {
|
||||
const aux = emptyAux();
|
||||
aux.threatSummaryByCountry = { XX: { critical: 10, high: 5, medium: 2, low: 1, info: 0 } };
|
||||
assert.doesNotThrow(() => computeCIIScores([], aux), 'unknown country code should not throw');
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('null threatSummaryByCountry produces zero newsActivity', () => {
|
||||
const scores = computeCIIScores([], emptyAux());
|
||||
for (const s of scores) {
|
||||
assert.equal(s.components!.newsActivity, 0, `${s.region} should have zero newsActivity with null threatSummary`);
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user