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feat(resilience): PR 3 — dead-signal cleanup (plan §3.5, §3.6) (#3297)
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 — retire fuelStockDays from core score permanently
First commit in PR 3 of the resilience repair plan. Retires
`fuelStockDays` from the core score with no replacement.
Why permanent, not replaced:
IEA emergency-stockholding rules are defined in days of NET IMPORTS
and do not bind net exporters by design. Norway/Canada/US measured
in days-of-imports are incomparable to Germany/Japan measured the
same way — the construct is fundamentally different across the two
country classes. No globally-comparable recovery-fuel signal can
be built from this source; the pre-repair probe showed 100% imputed
at 50 for every country in the April 2026 freeze.
scoreFuelStockDays:
- Rewritten to return coverage=0 + observedWeight=0 +
imputationClass='source-failure' for every country regardless
of seed content.
- Drops the dimension from the `recovery` domain's coverage-
weighted mean automatically; remaining recovery dimensions
pick up the share via re-normalisation in
`_shared.ts#coverageWeightedMean`.
- No explicit weight transfer needed — the coverage-weighted
blend handles redistribution.
Registry:
- recoveryFuelStockDays re-tagged from tier='enrichment' to
tier='experimental' so the Core coverage gate treats it as
out-of-score.
- Description updated to make the retirement explicit; entry
stays in the registry for structural continuity (the
dimension `fuelStockDays` remains in RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER
for the 19-dimension tests; removing the dimension entirely is
a PR 4 structural-audit concern).
Housekeeping:
- Removed `RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY` constant (no
longer read; noUnusedLocals would reject it).
- Removed `RecoveryFuelStocksCountry` interface for the same
reason. Comment at the removed declaration instructs future
maintainers not to re-add the type as a reservation; when a
new recovery-fuel concept lands, introduce a fresh interface.
Plan reference: §3.5 point 1 of
`docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-scorer-structural-bias-plan.md`.
51 resilience tests pass, typecheck + biome clean. The
`recovery` domain's published score will shift slightly for every
country because the 0.10 slot that fuelStockDays was imputing to
now redistributes; the compare-harness acceptance-gate rerun at
merge time will quantify the shift per plan §6 gates.
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 — retire BIS-backed currencyExternal; rebuild on IMF inflation + WB reserves
BIS REER/DSR feeds were load-bearing in currencyExternal (weights 0.35
fxVolatility + 0.35 fxDeviation, ~70% of dimension). They cover ~60
countries max — so every non-BIS country fell through to
curated_list_absent (coverage 0.3) or a thin IMF proxy (coverage 0.45).
Combined with reserveMarginPct already removed in PR 1, currencyExternal
was the clearest "construct absent for most of the world" carrier left
in the scorer.
Changes:
_dimension-scorers.ts
- scoreCurrencyExternal now reads IMF macro (inflationPct) + WB FX
reserves only. Coverage ladder:
inflation + reserves → 0.85 (observed primary + secondary)
inflation only → 0.55
reserves only → 0.40
neither → 0.30 (IMPUTE.bisEer retained for snapshot
continuity; semantics read as
"no IMF + no WB reserves" now)
- Removed dead symbols: RESILIENCE_BIS_EXCHANGE_KEY constant (reserved
via comment only, flagged by noUnusedLocals), stddev() helper,
getCountryBisExchangeRates() loader, BisExchangeRate interface,
dateToSortableNumber() — all were exclusive callers of the retired
BIS path.
_indicator-registry.ts
- New core entry inflationStability (weight 0.60, tier=core,
sourceKey=economic:imf:macro:v2).
- fxReservesAdequacy weight 0.15 → 0.40 (secondary reliability
anchor).
- fxVolatility + fxDeviation demoted tier=enrichment → tier=experimental
(BIS ~60-country coverage; off the core weight sum).
- Non-experimental weights now sum to 1.0 (0.60 + 0.40).
scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs
- EXTRACTION_RULES: added inflationStability →
imf-macro-country-field field=inflationPct so the registry-parity
test passes and the correlation harness sees the new construct.
tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts
- Dropped BIS-era wording ("non-BIS country") and test 266
(BIS-outage coverage 0.35 branch) which collapsed to the inflation-
only path post-retirement.
- Updated coverage assertions: inflation-only 0.45 → 0.55; inflation+
reserves 0.55 → 0.85.
tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts
- domainAverages.economic 68.33 → 66.33 (US currencyExternal score
shifts slightly under IMF+reserves vs old BIS composite).
- stressScore 67.85 → 67.21; stressFactor 0.3215 → 0.3279.
- overallScore 65.82 → 65.52.
- baselineScore unchanged (currencyExternal is stress-only).
All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean. No change to
seeders or Redis keys; this is a pure scorer + registry rebuild.
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 point 3 — re-goalpost externalDebtCoverage (0..5 → 0..2)
Plan §2.1 diagnosis table showed externalDebtCoverage saturating at
score=100 across all 9 probe countries — including stressed states.
Signal was collapsed. Root cause: (worst=5, best=0) gave every country
with ratio < 0.5 a score above 90, and mapped Greenspan-Guidotti's
reserve-adequacy threshold (ratio=1.0) to score 80 — well into "no
worry" territory instead of the "mild warning" it should be.
Re-anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti directly: ratio=1.0 now maps to score
50 (mild warning), ratio=2.0 to score 0 (acute rollover-shock exposure).
Ratios above 2.0 clamp to 0, consistent with "beyond this point the
country is already in crisis; exact value stops mattering."
Files changed:
- _indicator-registry.ts: recoveryDebtToReserves goalposts
{worst: 5, best: 0} → {worst: 2, best: 0}. Description updated to
cite Greenspan-Guidotti; inline comment documents anchor + rationale.
- _dimension-scorers.ts: scoreExternalDebtCoverage normalizer bound
changed from (0..5) to (0..2), with inline comment.
- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx: goalpost table row
5-0 → 2-0, description cites Greenspan-Guidotti.
- docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml:
* constructStatus: dead-signal → observed-mechanism (signal is now
discriminating).
* reviewNotes updated to describe the new anchor.
* mechanismTestRationale names the Greenspan-Guidotti rule.
- tests/resilience-dimension-monotonicity.test.mts: updated the
comment + picked values inside the (0..2) discriminating band (0.3
and 1.5). Old values (1 vs 4) had 4 clamping to 0.
- tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts: NO score threshold
relaxed >90 → >=85 (NO ratio=0.2 now scores 90, was 96).
- tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts: fixture drift:
* domainAverages.recovery 54.83 → 47.33 (US extDebt 70 → 25).
* baselineScore 63.63 → 60.12 (extDebt is baseline type).
* overallScore 65.52 → 63.27.
* stressScore / stressFactor unchanged (extDebt is baseline-only).
All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.6 — CI gate on indicator coverage and nominal weight
Plan §3.6 adds a new acceptance criterion (also §5 item 5):
> No indicator with observed coverage below 70% may exceed 5% nominal
> weight OR 5% effective influence in the post-change sensitivity run.
This commit enforces the NOMINAL-WEIGHT half as a unit test that runs
on every CI build. The EFFECTIVE-INFLUENCE half is produced by
scripts/validate-resilience-sensitivity.mjs as a committed artifact;
the gate file only asserts that script still exists so a refactor that
removes it breaks the build loudly.
Why the gate exists (plan §3.6):
"A dimension at 30% observed coverage carries the same effective
weight as one at 95%. This contradicts the OECD/JRC handbook on
uncertainty analysis."
Implementation:
tests/resilience-coverage-influence-gate.test.mts — three tests:
1. Nominal-weight gate: for every core indicator with coverage < 137
countries (70% of the ~195-country universe), computes its nominal
overall weight as
indicator.weight × (1/dimensions-in-domain) × domain-weight
and asserts it does not exceed 5%. Equal-share-per-dimension is
the *upper bound* on runtime weight (coverage-weighted mean gives
a lower share when a dimension drops out), so this is a strict
bound: if the nominal number passes, the runtime number also
passes for every country.
2. Effective-influence contract: asserts the sensitivity script
exists at its expected path. Removing it (intentionally or by
refactor) breaks the build.
3. Audit visibility: prints the top 10 core indicators by nominal
overall weight. No assertion beyond "ran" — the list lets
reviewers spot outliers that pass the gate but are near the cap.
Current state (observed from audit output):
recoveryReserveMonths: nominal=4.17% coverage=188
recoveryDebtToReserves: nominal=4.17% coverage=185
recoveryImportHhi: nominal=4.17% coverage=190
inflationStability: nominal=3.40% coverage=185
electricityConsumption: nominal=3.30% coverage=217
ucdpConflict: nominal=3.09% coverage=193
Every core indicator has coverage ≥ 180 (already enforced by the
pre-existing indicator-tiering test), so the nominal-weight gate has
no current violators — its purpose is catching future drift, not
flagging today's state.
All 6327 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
* docs(resilience): PR 3 methodology doc — document §3.5 dead-signal retirements + §3.6 coverage gate
Methodology-doc update capturing the three §3.5 landings and the §3.6 CI
gate. Five edits:
1. **Known construct limitations section (#5 and #6):** strikethrough the
original "dead signals" and "no coverage-based weight cap" items,
annotate them with "Landed in PR 3 §3.5"/"Landed in PR 3 §3.6" +
specifics of what shipped.
2. **Currency & External H4 section:** completely rewritten. Old table
(fxVolatility / fxDeviation / fxReservesAdequacy on BIS primary) is
replaced by the two-indicator post-PR-3 table (inflationStability at
0.60 + fxReservesAdequacy at 0.40). Coverage ladder spelled out
(0.85 / 0.55 / 0.40 / 0.30). Legacy BIS indicators named as
experimental-tier drill-downs only.
3. **Fuel Stock Days H4 section:** H4 heading text kept verbatim so the
methodology-lint H4-to-dimension mapping does not break; body
rewritten to explain that the dimension is retired from core but the
seeder still runs for IEA-member drill-downs.
4. **External Debt Coverage table row:** goalpost 5-0 → 2-0, description
cites Greenspan-Guidotti reserve-adequacy rule.
5. **New v2.2 changelog entry** — PR 3 dead-signal cleanup, covering
§3.5 points 1/2/3 + §3.6 + acceptance gates + construct-audit
updates.
No scoring or code changes in this commit. Methodology-lint test passes
(H4 mapping intact). All 6327 data-tier tests pass.
* fix(resilience): PR 3 §3.6 gate — correct share-denominator for coverage-weighted aggregation
Reviewer catch (thanks). The previous gate computed each indicator's
nominal overall weight as
indicator.weight × (1 / N_total_dimensions_in_domain) × domain_weight
and claimed this was an upper bound ("actual runtime weight is ≤ this
when some dimensions drop out on coverage"). That is BACKWARDS for
this scorer.
The domain aggregation is coverage-weighted
(server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts coverageWeightedMean),
so when a dimension pins at coverage=0 it is EXCLUDED from the
denominator and the surviving dimensions' shares go UP, not down.
PR 3 commit 1 retires fuelStockDays by hard-coding its scorer to
coverage=0 for every country — so in the current live state the
recovery domain has 5 contributing dimensions (not 6), and each core
recovery indicator's nominal share is
1.0 × 1/5 × 0.25 = 5.00% (was mis-reported as 4.17%)
The old gate therefore under-estimated nominal influence and could
silently pass exactly the kind of low-coverage overweight regression
it is meant to block.
Fix:
- Added `coreBearingDimensions(domainId)` helper that counts only
dimensions that have ≥1 core indicator in the registry. A dimension
with only experimental/enrichment entries (post-retirement
fuelStockDays) has no core contribution → does not dilute shares.
- Updated `nominalOverallWeight` to divide by the core-bearing count,
not the raw dimension count.
- Rewrote the helper's doc comment to stop claiming this is a strict
upper bound — explicitly calls out the dynamic case (source failure
raising surviving dim shares further) as the sensitivity script's
responsibility.
- Added a new regression test: asserts (a) at least one recovery
dimension is all-non-core (fuelStockDays post-retirement),
(b) fuelStockDays has zero core indicators, and (c) recoveryDebt
ToReserves nominal = 0.05 exactly (not 0.0417) — any reversion
of the retirement or regression to N_total-denominator will fail
loudly.
Top-10 audit output now correctly shows:
recoveryReserveMonths: nominal=5% coverage=188
recoveryDebtToReserves: nominal=5% coverage=185
recoveryImportHhi: nominal=5% coverage=190
(was 4.17% each under the old math)
All 486 resilience tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
Note: the 5% figure is exactly AT the cap, not over it. "exceed" means
strictly > 5%, so it still passes. But now the reviewer / audit log
reflects reality.
* fix(resilience): PR 3 review — retired-dim confidence drag + false source-failure label
Addresses the Codex review P1 + P2 on PR #3297.
P1 — retired-dim drag on confidence averages
--------------------------------------------
scoreFuelStockDays returns coverage=0 by design (retired construct),
but computeLowConfidence, computeOverallCoverage, and the widget's
formatResilienceConfidence averaged across all 19 dimensions. That
dragged every country's reported averageCoverage down — US went from
0.8556 (active dims only) to 0.8105 (all dims) — enough drift to
misclassify edge countries as lowConfidence and to shift the ranking
widget's overallCoverage pill for every country.
Fix: introduce an authoritative RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS set in
_dimension-scorers.ts and filter it out of all three averages. The
filter is keyed on the retired-dim REGISTRY, not on coverage === 0,
because a non-retired dim can legitimately emit coverage=0 on a
genuinely sparse-data country via weightedBlend fall-through — those
entries MUST keep dragging confidence down (that is the sparse-data
signal lowConfidence exists to surface). Verified: sparse-country
release-gate test (marks sparse WHO/FAO countries as low confidence)
still passes with the registry-keyed filter; would have failed with
a naive coverage=0 filter.
Server-client parity: widget-utils cannot import server code, so
RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSION_IDS is a hand-mirrored constant, kept
in lockstep by tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts
(parses the widget file as text, same pattern as existing widget-util
tests that can't import the widget module directly).
P2 — false "Source down" label on retired dim
---------------------------------------------
scoreFuelStockDays hard-coded imputationClass: 'source-failure',
which the widget maps to "Source down: upstream seeder failed" with
a `!` icon for every country. That is semantically wrong for an
intentional retirement. Flipped to null so the widget's absent-path
renders a neutral cell without a false outage label. null is already
a legal value of ResilienceDimensionScore.imputationClass; no type
change needed.
Tests
-----
- tests/resilience-confidence-averaging.test.mts (new): pins the
registry-keyed filter semantic for computeOverallCoverage +
computeLowConfidence. Includes a negative-control test proving
non-retired coverage=0 dims still flip lowConfidence.
- tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts (new):
lockstep gate between server and client retired-dim lists.
- Widget test adds a registry-keyed exclusion test with a non-retired
coverage=0 dim in the fixture to lock in the correct semantic.
- Existing tests asserting imputationClass: 'source-failure' for
fuelStockDays flipped to null.
All 494 resilience tests + full 6336/6336 data-tier suite pass.
Typecheck clean for both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
* docs(resilience): align methodology + registry metadata with shipped imputationClass=null
Follow-up to the previous PR 3 review commit that flipped
scoreFuelStockDays's imputationClass from 'source-failure' to null to
avoid a false "Source down" widget label on every country. The code
changed; the doc and registry metadata did not, leaving three sites
in the methodology mdx and two comment/description sites in the
registry still claiming imputationClass='source-failure'. Any future
reviewer (or tooling that treats the registry description as
authoritative) would be misled.
This commit rewrites those sites to describe the shipped behavior:
- imputationClass=null (not 'source-failure'), with the rationale
- exclusion from confidence/coverage averages via the
RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS registry filter
- the distinction between structural retirement (filtered) and
runtime coverage=0 (kept so sparse-data countries still flag
lowConfidence)
Touched:
- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx (lines ~33, ~268, ~590)
- server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_indicator-registry.ts
(recoveryFuelStockDays comment block + description field)
No code-behavior change. Docs-only.
Tests: 157 targeted resilience tests pass (incl. methodology-lint +
widget + release-gate + confidence-averaging). Typecheck clean on
both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
This commit is contained in:
Elie Habib
@@ -167,12 +167,9 @@ interface ImfMacroEntry {
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year?: number | null;
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}
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interface BisExchangeRate {
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countryCode?: string;
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realEer?: number;
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realChange?: number;
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date?: string;
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}
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// BisExchangeRate interface removed in PR 3 §3.5: only the
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// now-removed getCountryBisExchangeRates() + scoreCurrencyExternal's
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// BIS path used it.
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interface NationalDebtEntry {
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iso3?: string;
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@@ -235,7 +232,10 @@ interface SocialVelocityPost {
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const RESILIENCE_STATIC_PREFIX = 'resilience:static:';
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const RESILIENCE_SHIPPING_STRESS_KEY = 'supply_chain:shipping_stress:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_TRANSIT_SUMMARIES_KEY = 'supply_chain:transit-summaries:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_BIS_EXCHANGE_KEY = 'economic:bis:eer:v1';
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// RESILIENCE_BIS_EXCHANGE_KEY removed in PR 3 §3.5: scoreCurrencyExternal
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// no longer reads BIS EER. fxVolatility / fxDeviation indicators remain
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// registered as tier='experimental' for drill-down panels; those panels
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// read BIS directly via their own handlers, not via this scorer.
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const RESILIENCE_BIS_DSR_KEY = 'economic:bis:dsr:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_NATIONAL_DEBT_KEY = 'economic:national-debt:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_IMF_MACRO_KEY = 'economic:imf:macro:v2';
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@@ -258,7 +258,11 @@ const RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FISCAL_SPACE_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:fiscal-space:v
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const RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_RESERVE_ADEQUACY_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:reserve-adequacy:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_EXTERNAL_DEBT_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:external-debt:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_IMPORT_HHI_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:import-hhi:v1';
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const RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:fuel-stocks:v1';
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// RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY removed in PR 3: scoreFuelStockDays
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// no longer reads any source key. If a new globally-comparable
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// recovery-fuel concept lands in a future PR, add a new key with an
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// explicit semantic (e.g. resilience:fuel-import-volatility:v1) rather
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// than resurrecting this one.
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// PR 1 energy-construct v2 seed keys (plan §3.1–§3.3). Written by
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// scripts/seed-low-carbon-generation.mjs, scripts/seed-fossil-
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@@ -448,13 +452,9 @@ function mean(values: number[]): number | null {
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return values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / values.length;
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}
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function stddev(values: number[]): number | null {
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if (values.length < 2) return null;
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const avg = mean(values);
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if (avg == null) return null;
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const variance = values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + (value - avg) ** 2, 0) / values.length;
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return Math.sqrt(variance);
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}
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// stddev() removed in PR 3 §3.5: its only caller was scoreCurrencyExternal's
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// BIS-volatility path which is now retired. Re-introduce if a future
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// scorer genuinely needs a series-volatility computation.
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// T1.7 schema pass: tie-break order when multiple imputed metrics share
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// weight. Earlier classes in this list win on ties. stable-absence expresses
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@@ -565,15 +565,8 @@ function matchesCountryText(value: unknown, countryCode: string): boolean {
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return false;
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}
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function dateToSortableNumber(value: unknown): number {
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if (typeof value === 'string') {
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const compact = value.replace(/[^0-9]/g, '');
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const numeric = Number(compact);
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if (Number.isFinite(numeric) && numeric > 0) return numeric;
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}
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const numeric = Number(value);
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return Number.isFinite(numeric) ? numeric : 0;
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}
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// dateToSortableNumber() removed in PR 3 §3.5: only the now-removed
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// getCountryBisExchangeRates() used it.
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async function defaultSeedReader(key: string): Promise<unknown | null> {
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return getCachedJson(key, true);
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@@ -631,14 +624,9 @@ function getImfLaborEntry(raw: unknown, countryCode: string): ImfLaborEntry | nu
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return (countries[countryCode] as ImfLaborEntry | undefined) ?? null;
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}
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function getCountryBisExchangeRates(raw: unknown, countryCode: string): BisExchangeRate[] {
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const rates: BisExchangeRate[] = Array.isArray((raw as { rates?: unknown[] } | null)?.rates)
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? ((raw as { rates?: BisExchangeRate[] }).rates ?? [])
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: [];
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return rates
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.filter((entry) => matchesCountryIdentifier(entry.countryCode, countryCode))
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.sort((left, right) => dateToSortableNumber(left.date) - dateToSortableNumber(right.date));
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}
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// getCountryBisExchangeRates() removed in PR 3 §3.5: only scoreCurrencyExternal
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// called it, and that scorer no longer reads BIS EER. Drill-down panels
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// that want BIS series read it via their own dedicated handler.
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function getLatestDebtEntry(raw: unknown, countryCode: string): NationalDebtEntry | null {
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const iso3 = ISO2_TO_ISO3[countryCode.toUpperCase()];
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@@ -890,76 +878,87 @@ function scoreFxReserves(months: number): number {
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return normalizeHigherBetter(Math.min(months, 12), 1, 12);
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}
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// PR 3 §3.5 point 3: retire the BIS-dependent primary path. BIS EER
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// covers ~64 economies — a core signal that's null for ~150 countries
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// is structurally wrong for a world-ranking score. The scorer now
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// uses only global-coverage inputs:
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// - inflationStability: IMF `inflationPct` (CPI, ~185 countries)
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// - fxReservesAdequacy: WB `FI.RES.TOTL.MO` (~160 countries)
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// BIS `realChange` / `realEer` are still read for drill-down panels
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// via the fxVolatility / fxDeviation registry entries (now re-tagged
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// `tier='experimental'` so they're excluded from the Core coverage
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// gate), but the SCORER path ignores them entirely. A country that
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// used to take the "BIS primary" branch now takes the same path as
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// a non-BIS country, producing consistent per-country-reproducibility
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// regardless of whether BIS tracks them.
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//
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// Weight split in the core blend:
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// inflationStability 0.6 | fxReservesAdequacy 0.4
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// Mirrors the pre-existing "fallback when no BIS" blend weights.
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export async function scoreCurrencyExternal(
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countryCode: string,
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reader: ResilienceSeedReader = defaultSeedReader,
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): Promise<ResilienceDimensionScore> {
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const [bisExchangeRaw, imfMacroRaw, staticRecord] = await Promise.all([
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reader(RESILIENCE_BIS_EXCHANGE_KEY),
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const [imfMacroRaw, staticRecord] = await Promise.all([
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reader(RESILIENCE_IMF_MACRO_KEY),
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readStaticCountry(countryCode, reader),
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]);
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const countryRates = getCountryBisExchangeRates(bisExchangeRaw, countryCode);
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const latest = countryRates[countryRates.length - 1] ?? null;
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const volSource = countryRates
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.map((entry) => safeNum(entry.realChange))
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.filter((value): value is number => value != null)
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.slice(-12);
|
||||
const vol = volSource.length >= 2
|
||||
? (stddev(volSource) ?? 0) * Math.sqrt(12)
|
||||
: volSource.length === 1
|
||||
? Math.abs(volSource[0]!) * Math.sqrt(12)
|
||||
: null;
|
||||
|
||||
const imfEntry = getImfMacroEntry(imfMacroRaw, countryCode);
|
||||
const hasInflation = imfMacroRaw != null && imfEntry?.inflationPct != null;
|
||||
const inflationScore = hasInflation
|
||||
? normalizeLowerBetter(Math.min(imfEntry!.inflationPct!, 50), 0, 50)
|
||||
: null;
|
||||
|
||||
const reservesMonths = getFxReservesMonths(staticRecord);
|
||||
const reservesScore = reservesMonths != null ? scoreFxReserves(reservesMonths) : null;
|
||||
|
||||
// Country not in BIS EER (curated ~40 economies), or BIS seed is down entirely.
|
||||
// Use IMF CPI inflation + WB FX reserves as currency stability proxies.
|
||||
// Inflation covers ~185 countries, reserves ~160 countries via World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.MO.
|
||||
if (countryRates.length === 0) {
|
||||
const imfEntry = getImfMacroEntry(imfMacroRaw, countryCode);
|
||||
const hasInflation = imfMacroRaw != null && imfEntry?.inflationPct != null;
|
||||
const hasReserves = reservesScore != null;
|
||||
|
||||
if (hasInflation && hasReserves) {
|
||||
const inflScore = normalizeLowerBetter(Math.min(imfEntry!.inflationPct!, 50), 0, 50);
|
||||
const blended = inflScore * 0.6 + reservesScore * 0.4;
|
||||
const coverage = bisExchangeRaw != null ? 0.55 : 0.45;
|
||||
return { score: roundScore(blended), coverage, observedWeight: 1, imputedWeight: 0, imputationClass: null, freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' } };
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (hasInflation) {
|
||||
const coverage = bisExchangeRaw != null ? 0.45 : 0.35;
|
||||
return { score: normalizeLowerBetter(Math.min(imfEntry!.inflationPct!, 50), 0, 50), coverage, observedWeight: 1, imputedWeight: 0, imputationClass: null, freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' } };
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (hasReserves) {
|
||||
const coverage = bisExchangeRaw != null ? 0.4 : 0.3;
|
||||
return { score: reservesScore, coverage, observedWeight: 1, imputedWeight: 0, imputationClass: null, freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' } };
|
||||
}
|
||||
// No BIS EER, no IMF inflation fallback, no WB reserves fallback.
|
||||
// This is true structural absence: the country isn't covered by any
|
||||
// currency-stability source we track. Tag with curated_list_absent
|
||||
// (= 'unmonitored') so the taxonomy is the single source of truth
|
||||
// and the aggregation pass can still re-tag it as 'source-failure'
|
||||
// when the underlying adapter fails. The prior absence-based branch
|
||||
// returned { score: 50, imputationClass: null } which silently
|
||||
// bypassed the taxonomy; replaced in T1.7 source-failure wiring.
|
||||
if (hasInflation && reservesScore != null) {
|
||||
const blended = inflationScore! * 0.6 + reservesScore * 0.4;
|
||||
return {
|
||||
score: IMPUTE.bisEer.score,
|
||||
coverage: IMPUTE.bisEer.certaintyCoverage,
|
||||
observedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 1,
|
||||
imputationClass: IMPUTE.bisEer.imputationClass,
|
||||
score: roundScore(blended),
|
||||
coverage: 0.85,
|
||||
observedWeight: 1,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputationClass: null,
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (hasInflation) {
|
||||
return {
|
||||
score: inflationScore!,
|
||||
coverage: 0.55,
|
||||
observedWeight: 1,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputationClass: null,
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
if (reservesScore != null) {
|
||||
return {
|
||||
score: reservesScore,
|
||||
coverage: 0.4,
|
||||
observedWeight: 1,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputationClass: null,
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// BIS EER data present: volatility + deviation are primary, reserves supplementary.
|
||||
return weightedBlend([
|
||||
{ score: vol == null ? null : normalizeLowerBetter(vol, 0, 50), weight: 0.6 },
|
||||
{ score: latest == null ? null : normalizeLowerBetter(Math.abs((safeNum(latest.realEer) ?? 100) - 100), 0, 35), weight: 0.25 },
|
||||
{ score: reservesScore, weight: 0.15 },
|
||||
]);
|
||||
// Neither global-coverage source present. True structural absence;
|
||||
// keep the curated_list_absent → unmonitored taxonomy so the
|
||||
// aggregation pass can still re-tag as source-failure on adapter
|
||||
// outage. (IMPUTE.bisEer is the existing entry; we keep its
|
||||
// identity/name for snapshot continuity but the semantics now read
|
||||
// as "no IMF + no WB reserves" rather than "no BIS".)
|
||||
return {
|
||||
score: IMPUTE.bisEer.score,
|
||||
coverage: IMPUTE.bisEer.certaintyCoverage,
|
||||
observedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 1,
|
||||
imputationClass: IMPUTE.bisEer.imputationClass,
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export async function scoreTradeSanctions(
|
||||
@@ -1407,11 +1406,11 @@ interface RecoveryImportHhiCountry {
|
||||
year?: number | null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
interface RecoveryFuelStocksCountry {
|
||||
fuelStockDays?: number | null;
|
||||
meetsObligation?: boolean | null;
|
||||
belowObligation?: boolean | null;
|
||||
}
|
||||
// RecoveryFuelStocksCountry interface removed in PR 3 — scoreFuelStockDays
|
||||
// no longer reads any payload. Do NOT re-add the type as a reservation;
|
||||
// the tsc noUnusedLocals rule rejects unused locals. When a new
|
||||
// recovery-fuel concept lands, introduce a fresh interface with a
|
||||
// different name + the actual shape it needs.
|
||||
|
||||
function getRecoveryCountryEntry<T>(raw: unknown, countryCode: string): T | null {
|
||||
const countries = (raw as { countries?: Record<string, T> } | null)?.countries;
|
||||
@@ -1480,8 +1479,12 @@ export async function scoreExternalDebtCoverage(
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
// PR 3 §3.5 point 3: goalpost re-anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti.
|
||||
// Ratio 1.0 (short-term debt matches reserves) = score 50; ratio 2.0
|
||||
// = score 0 (acute rollover-shock exposure). See registry entry
|
||||
// recoveryDebtToReserves for the construct rationale.
|
||||
return weightedBlend([
|
||||
{ score: normalizeLowerBetter(entry.debtToReservesRatio, 0, 5), weight: 1.0 },
|
||||
{ score: normalizeLowerBetter(entry.debtToReservesRatio, 0, 2), weight: 1.0 },
|
||||
]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -1551,26 +1554,75 @@ export async function scoreStateContinuity(
|
||||
]);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
// PR 3 §3.5 point 1: retired permanently from the core score. IEA
|
||||
// emergency-stockholding rules are defined in days of NET IMPORTS
|
||||
// and do not bind net exporters by design; the net-importer vs net-
|
||||
// exporter framings are incomparable, so no global resilience signal
|
||||
// can be built from this data. Published coverage for the IEA/EIA
|
||||
// connector sat at 100% imputed at 50 for every country in the
|
||||
// pre-repair probe (`fuelStockDays` was `source-failure` for every
|
||||
// ISO in the April 2026 freeze snapshot).
|
||||
//
|
||||
// Returning `coverage: 0` + `observedWeight: 0` drops the dimension
|
||||
// from the `recovery` domain's coverage-weighted mean entirely; the
|
||||
// remaining recovery dimensions pick up its share of the domain
|
||||
// weight via auto-redistribution (no explicit weight transfer needed
|
||||
// — `coverageWeightedMean` in `_shared.ts` already does this).
|
||||
//
|
||||
// Does NOT return in PR 4. A new globally-comparable recovery-fuel
|
||||
// concept (e.g. fuel-import-volatility or strategic-buffer-ratio
|
||||
// with a unified net-importer/net-exporter definition) could replace
|
||||
// this scorer in a future PR, but that is out of scope for the
|
||||
// first-publication repair.
|
||||
//
|
||||
// The dimension `fuelStockDays` remains in `RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER`
|
||||
// for structural continuity (tests, pillar membership, registry
|
||||
// shape); retiring the dimension entirely is a PR 4 structural-audit
|
||||
// concern. The `recoveryFuelStockDays` indicator is re-tagged as
|
||||
// `tier: 'experimental'` in the registry so the Core coverage gate
|
||||
// does not consider it active.
|
||||
// Authoritative registry of dimensions retired from the core score.
|
||||
// Retired dimensions still appear in `RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER` for
|
||||
// structural continuity (tests, pillar membership, registry shape) and
|
||||
// their scorers still run (returning coverage=0). This set exists so
|
||||
// downstream confidence/coverage averages (`computeLowConfidence`,
|
||||
// `computeOverallCoverage`, the widget's `formatResilienceConfidence`)
|
||||
// can explicitly exclude retired dims — distinct from coverage=0
|
||||
// dimensions that reflect genuine data sparsity, which must still drag
|
||||
// the confidence reading down so sparse-data countries stay flagged as
|
||||
// low-confidence. See `tests/resilience-confidence-averaging.test.mts`
|
||||
// for the exact semantic this set enables.
|
||||
//
|
||||
// Client-side mirror: `RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSION_IDS` in
|
||||
// `src/components/resilience-widget-utils.ts`. Kept in lockstep via
|
||||
// `tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts`.
|
||||
export const RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS: ReadonlySet<ResilienceDimensionId> = new Set([
|
||||
'fuelStockDays',
|
||||
]);
|
||||
|
||||
export async function scoreFuelStockDays(
|
||||
countryCode: string,
|
||||
reader: ResilienceSeedReader = defaultSeedReader,
|
||||
_countryCode: string,
|
||||
_reader: ResilienceSeedReader = defaultSeedReader,
|
||||
): Promise<ResilienceDimensionScore> {
|
||||
const raw = await reader(RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY);
|
||||
const entry = getRecoveryCountryEntry<RecoveryFuelStocksCountry>(raw, countryCode);
|
||||
// The seeder writes `fuelStockDays`, not `stockDays`.
|
||||
if (!entry || entry.fuelStockDays == null) {
|
||||
return {
|
||||
score: IMPUTE.recoveryFuelStocks.score,
|
||||
coverage: IMPUTE.recoveryFuelStocks.certaintyCoverage,
|
||||
observedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 1,
|
||||
imputationClass: IMPUTE.recoveryFuelStocks.imputationClass,
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
return weightedBlend([
|
||||
{ score: normalizeHigherBetter(Math.min(entry.fuelStockDays, 120), 0, 120), weight: 1.0 },
|
||||
]);
|
||||
// imputationClass is `null` (not 'source-failure') because the dimension
|
||||
// is retired by design, not failing at runtime. 'source-failure' renders
|
||||
// as "Source down: upstream seeder failed" with a `!` icon in the widget
|
||||
// (see IMPUTATION_CLASS_LABELS in src/components/resilience-widget-utils.ts);
|
||||
// surfacing that label for every country would manufacture a false outage
|
||||
// signal for a deliberate construct retirement. The dimension is excluded
|
||||
// from confidence/coverage averages via the `RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS`
|
||||
// registry filter in `computeLowConfidence`, `computeOverallCoverage`, and
|
||||
// the widget's `formatResilienceConfidence`. The filter is registry-keyed
|
||||
// (not `coverage === 0`) so genuinely sparse-data countries still surface
|
||||
// as low-confidence from non-retired coverage=0 dims.
|
||||
return {
|
||||
score: 50,
|
||||
coverage: 0,
|
||||
observedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputedWeight: 0,
|
||||
imputationClass: null,
|
||||
freshness: { lastObservedAtMs: 0, staleness: '' },
|
||||
};
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export const RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_SCORERS: Record<
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -108,11 +108,49 @@ export const INDICATOR_REGISTRY: IndicatorSpec[] = [
|
||||
license: 'non-commercial',
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── currencyExternal (3 sub-metrics, plus IMF inflation fallback for non-BIS) ─
|
||||
// ── currencyExternal ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
// PR 3 §3.5 point 3 rebalanced the dimension's core scoring:
|
||||
// - BIS-dependent signals (fxVolatility, fxDeviation) moved to
|
||||
// tier='experimental'. BIS EER covers ~64 economies, which is too
|
||||
// narrow for a world-ranking Core signal. They remain in the registry
|
||||
// for drill-down / enrichment panels but scoreCurrencyExternal no
|
||||
// longer reads them.
|
||||
// - Core scoring is now: inflationStability (IMF CPI, ~185 countries)
|
||||
// at weight 0.6, fxReservesAdequacy (WB FI.RES.TOTL.MO, ~188 countries)
|
||||
// at weight 0.4. Both are global-coverage, so every country gets the
|
||||
// same construct regardless of BIS membership.
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'inflationStability',
|
||||
dimension: 'currencyExternal',
|
||||
description: 'IMF CPI inflation (lower is better). Global-coverage primary signal for currency stability. Core input to scoreCurrencyExternal under PR 3 §3.5. A future PR may upgrade this to a 5-year inflation-volatility computation once the seeder tracks the series; headline inflation is a reasonable first-cut for stability ranking.',
|
||||
direction: 'lowerBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 50, best: 0 },
|
||||
weight: 0.6,
|
||||
sourceKey: 'economic:imf:macro:v2',
|
||||
scope: 'global',
|
||||
cadence: 'annual',
|
||||
tier: 'core',
|
||||
coverage: 185,
|
||||
license: 'open-data',
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'fxReservesAdequacy',
|
||||
dimension: 'currencyExternal',
|
||||
description: 'Total reserves in months of imports (World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.MO). Global-coverage core signal for currency stability; paired with inflationStability in scoreCurrencyExternal after PR 3 §3.5 rebalancing.',
|
||||
direction: 'higherBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 1, best: 12 },
|
||||
weight: 0.4,
|
||||
sourceKey: 'resilience:static:*',
|
||||
scope: 'global',
|
||||
cadence: 'annual',
|
||||
tier: 'core',
|
||||
coverage: 188,
|
||||
license: 'open-data',
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'fxVolatility',
|
||||
dimension: 'currencyExternal',
|
||||
description: 'Annualized BIS real effective exchange rate volatility (std-dev of monthly changes * sqrt(12)). Fallback chain when BIS absent: (1) IMF inflation + WB reserves proxy, (2) IMF inflation alone, (3) reserves alone, (4) conservative imputation.',
|
||||
description: 'Annualized BIS real effective exchange rate volatility (std-dev of monthly changes * sqrt(12)). Enrichment-only for the ~64 BIS-tracked economies after PR 3 §3.5 — NOT read by scoreCurrencyExternal. Available via drill-down panels only.',
|
||||
direction: 'lowerBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 50, best: 0 },
|
||||
weight: 0.6,
|
||||
@@ -120,17 +158,14 @@ export const INDICATOR_REGISTRY: IndicatorSpec[] = [
|
||||
scope: 'curated',
|
||||
cadence: 'monthly',
|
||||
imputation: { type: 'conservative', score: 50, certainty: 0.3 },
|
||||
// BIS REER is curated (~60 countries). Demoted to Enrichment by the
|
||||
// Phase 2 A4 coverage gate; the IMF inflation + WB reserves fallback
|
||||
// chain still feeds the Core fxReservesAdequacy signal globally.
|
||||
tier: 'enrichment',
|
||||
tier: 'experimental',
|
||||
coverage: 60,
|
||||
license: 'non-commercial',
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'fxDeviation',
|
||||
dimension: 'currencyExternal',
|
||||
description: 'Absolute deviation of latest BIS real EER from 100 (equilibrium index). Fallback chain when BIS absent: (1) IMF inflation + WB reserves proxy, (2) IMF inflation alone, (3) reserves alone, (4) conservative imputation.',
|
||||
description: 'Absolute deviation of latest BIS real EER from 100 (equilibrium index). Enrichment-only for the ~64 BIS-tracked economies after PR 3 §3.5 — NOT read by scoreCurrencyExternal. Available via drill-down panels only.',
|
||||
direction: 'lowerBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 35, best: 0 },
|
||||
weight: 0.25,
|
||||
@@ -138,25 +173,10 @@ export const INDICATOR_REGISTRY: IndicatorSpec[] = [
|
||||
scope: 'curated',
|
||||
cadence: 'monthly',
|
||||
imputation: { type: 'conservative', score: 50, certainty: 0.3 },
|
||||
// BIS REER curated source, same coverage limitation as fxVolatility.
|
||||
tier: 'enrichment',
|
||||
tier: 'experimental',
|
||||
coverage: 60,
|
||||
license: 'non-commercial',
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'fxReservesAdequacy',
|
||||
dimension: 'currencyExternal',
|
||||
description: 'Total reserves in months of imports (World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.MO). Supplementary metric for BIS countries (weight 0.15), primary metric alongside IMF inflation for non-BIS countries (~160 countries).',
|
||||
direction: 'higherBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 1, best: 12 },
|
||||
weight: 0.15,
|
||||
sourceKey: 'resilience:static:*',
|
||||
scope: 'global',
|
||||
cadence: 'annual',
|
||||
tier: 'core',
|
||||
coverage: 188,
|
||||
license: 'open-data',
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── tradeSanctions (4 sub-metrics) ────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
{
|
||||
@@ -905,9 +925,16 @@ export const INDICATOR_REGISTRY: IndicatorSpec[] = [
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'recoveryDebtToReserves',
|
||||
dimension: 'externalDebtCoverage',
|
||||
description: 'Short-term external debt to reserves ratio (World Bank DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD); values above 1 signal reserve inadequacy for debt service',
|
||||
description: 'Short-term external debt to reserves ratio (World Bank DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD); Greenspan-Guidotti rule treats ratio≥1 as reserve inadequacy, ratio≥2 as acute rollover-shock exposure',
|
||||
direction: 'lowerBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 5, best: 0 },
|
||||
// PR 3 §3.5 point 3: re-goalposted from (0..5) to (0..2). Old goalpost
|
||||
// saturated at 100 across the full 9-country probe including stressed
|
||||
// states. New anchor: ratio=1.0 (Greenspan-Guidotti reserve-adequacy
|
||||
// threshold) maps to score 50; ratio=2.0 (double the threshold, acute
|
||||
// distress) maps to 0. Ratios above 2.0 clamp to 0 — consistent with
|
||||
// "beyond this point the precise value stops mattering, the country
|
||||
// is already in a rollover-crisis regime."
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 2, best: 0 },
|
||||
weight: 1.0,
|
||||
sourceKey: 'resilience:recovery:external-debt:v1',
|
||||
scope: 'global',
|
||||
@@ -978,17 +1005,31 @@ export const INDICATOR_REGISTRY: IndicatorSpec[] = [
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
// ── fuelStockDays (1 sub-metric) ─────────────────────────────────────────
|
||||
// PR 3 §3.5 point 1: RETIRED from the core score. IEA emergency-
|
||||
// stockholding is defined in days of NET IMPORTS; the net-importer
|
||||
// vs net-exporter framings are incomparable, so no global resilience
|
||||
// signal can be built from this data. scoreFuelStockDays now returns
|
||||
// coverage=0 + imputationClass=null for every country (filtered out
|
||||
// of confidence/coverage averages via the RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS
|
||||
// registry in _dimension-scorers.ts). imputationClass is deliberately
|
||||
// `null` rather than 'source-failure' — a retirement is structural,
|
||||
// not a runtime outage, and surfacing 'source-failure' would manufacture
|
||||
// a false "Source down" label in the widget for every country. The
|
||||
// registry entry stays at tier='experimental' so the Core coverage
|
||||
// gate treats it as out-of-score; the dimension itself remains
|
||||
// registered for structural continuity (PR 4 structural-audit may
|
||||
// remove it entirely).
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'recoveryFuelStockDays',
|
||||
dimension: 'fuelStockDays',
|
||||
description: 'Days of fuel stock cover (IEA Oil Stocks / EIA Weekly Petroleum Status); strategic buffer for energy-dependent recovery',
|
||||
description: 'RETIRED in PR 3. Legacy days-of-fuel-stock-cover (IEA Oil Stocks / EIA Weekly Petroleum Status). Does not contribute to the score — scoreFuelStockDays returns coverage=0 + imputationClass=null, and the dimension is excluded from confidence/coverage averages via the RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS registry. Kept in the registry as tier=experimental for structural continuity; a globally-comparable recovery-fuel concept could replace this in a future PR.',
|
||||
direction: 'higherBetter',
|
||||
goalposts: { worst: 0, best: 120 },
|
||||
weight: 1.0,
|
||||
sourceKey: 'resilience:recovery:fuel-stocks:v1',
|
||||
scope: 'global',
|
||||
cadence: 'monthly',
|
||||
tier: 'enrichment',
|
||||
tier: 'experimental',
|
||||
coverage: 45,
|
||||
license: 'open-data',
|
||||
},
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import {
|
||||
RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER,
|
||||
RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES,
|
||||
RESILIENCE_DOMAIN_ORDER,
|
||||
RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS,
|
||||
createMemoizedSeedReader,
|
||||
getResilienceDomainWeight,
|
||||
scoreAllDimensions,
|
||||
@@ -338,8 +339,22 @@ function parseHistoryPoints(raw: unknown): ResilienceHistoryPoint[] {
|
||||
return history.sort((left, right) => left.date.localeCompare(right.date));
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
function computeLowConfidence(dimensions: ResilienceDimension[], imputationShare: number): boolean {
|
||||
const averageCoverage = mean(dimensions.map((dimension) => dimension.coverage)) ?? 0;
|
||||
export function computeLowConfidence(dimensions: ResilienceDimension[], imputationShare: number): boolean {
|
||||
// Exclude RETIRED dimensions (fuelStockDays, post-PR-3) from the
|
||||
// confidence reading. They contribute zero weight to domain scoring
|
||||
// via coverageWeightedMean, so including them in a flat coverage mean
|
||||
// would drag the user-facing confidence signal down for every country
|
||||
// purely because of a deliberate construct retirement.
|
||||
//
|
||||
// IMPORTANT: we do NOT filter by `coverage === 0` because a genuinely
|
||||
// sparse-data country can legitimately produce coverage=0 on non-
|
||||
// retired dims via weightedBlend fall-through, and those coverage=0
|
||||
// entries SHOULD drag the confidence down — that is precisely the
|
||||
// sparse-data signal lowConfidence exists to surface.
|
||||
const scoring = dimensions.filter(
|
||||
(dimension) => !RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS.has(dimension.id as ResilienceDimensionId),
|
||||
);
|
||||
const averageCoverage = mean(scoring.map((dimension) => dimension.coverage)) ?? 0;
|
||||
return averageCoverage < LOW_CONFIDENCE_COVERAGE_THRESHOLD || imputationShare > LOW_CONFIDENCE_IMPUTATION_SHARE_THRESHOLD;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -634,8 +649,18 @@ export async function getCachedResilienceScores(countryCodes: string[]): Promise
|
||||
|
||||
export const GREY_OUT_COVERAGE_THRESHOLD = 0.40;
|
||||
|
||||
function computeOverallCoverage(response: GetResilienceScoreResponse): number {
|
||||
const coverages = response.domains.flatMap((domain) => domain.dimensions.map((dimension) => dimension.coverage));
|
||||
export function computeOverallCoverage(response: GetResilienceScoreResponse): number {
|
||||
// Exclude RETIRED dimensions (fuelStockDays, post-PR-3) — their
|
||||
// coverage=0 is structural, not a sparsity signal, and should not
|
||||
// drag down the ranking widget's overallCoverage pill. Non-retired
|
||||
// coverage=0 dims (genuine weightedBlend fall-through) stay in the
|
||||
// average because they reflect real data sparsity for that country.
|
||||
// See `computeLowConfidence` for the matching rationale.
|
||||
const coverages = response.domains.flatMap((domain) =>
|
||||
domain.dimensions
|
||||
.filter((dimension) => !RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS.has(dimension.id as ResilienceDimensionId))
|
||||
.map((dimension) => dimension.coverage),
|
||||
);
|
||||
if (coverages.length === 0) return 0;
|
||||
return coverages.reduce((sum, coverage) => sum + coverage, 0) / coverages.length;
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user