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feat(forecast): enrich energy transmission signals (#2021)

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Elie Habib
2026-03-21 23:05:20 +04:00
committed by GitHub
parent 7008cd5959
commit 7eef3fd9ca
2 changed files with 185 additions and 12 deletions
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37
tests/forecast-trace-export.test.mjs
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@@ -370,7 +370,7 @@ describe('forecast trace artifact builder', () => {
});
describe('market transmission macro state', () => {
it('uses FRED macro series to form world signals, rebalance market buckets, and keep market consequences selective', () => {
it('uses live-shaped macro and market payloads to form energy-aware world signals and keep market consequences selective', () => {
const fredSeries = (seriesId, observations) => ({
seriesId,
title: seriesId,
@@ -407,6 +407,36 @@ describe('market transmission macro state', () => {
commodityQuotes: {
quotes: [
{ symbol: 'CL=F', name: 'WTI Crude Oil', price: 87.4, change: 3.1 },
{ symbol: 'BZ=F', name: 'Brent Crude Oil', price: 92.8, change: 3.4 },
{ symbol: 'NG=F', name: 'Natural Gas', price: 3.9, change: 4.6 },
{ symbol: 'GC=F', name: 'Gold', price: 2450, change: 1.5 },
],
},
bisExchangeRates: {
exchange: {
rates: [
{ countryCode: 'TRY', countryName: 'Turkey', realChange: 3.2 },
],
},
},
bisPolicyRates: {
policy: {
rates: [
{ countryCode: 'BR', countryName: 'Brazil', rate: 11.25, previousRate: 10.75 },
],
},
exchange: {
rates: [
{ countryCode: 'MX', countryName: 'Mexico', realChange: 2.7 },
],
},
},
correlationCards: {
military: [
{ domain: 'military', title: 'Carrier posture and sanctions correlation' },
],
markets: [
{ domain: 'market', title: 'Economic sanctions and commodity correlation' },
],
},
fredSeries: {
@@ -443,12 +473,17 @@ describe('market transmission macro state', () => {
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('yield_curve_stress'));
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('inflation_impulse'));
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('oil_macro_shock'));
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('global_crude_spread_stress'));
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('gas_supply_stress'));
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('safe_haven_bid'));
assert.ok(signalTypes.has('fx_stress'));
const buckets = new Map((worldState.marketState?.buckets || []).map((bucket) => [bucket.id, bucket]));
assert.ok((buckets.get('energy')?.pressureScore || 0) > 0.4);
assert.ok((buckets.get('freight')?.pressureScore || 0) > 0.35);
assert.ok((buckets.get('sovereign_risk')?.pressureScore || 0) > 0.25);
assert.ok((buckets.get('rates_inflation')?.macroConfirmation || 0) > 0);
assert.ok((buckets.get('fx_stress')?.macroConfirmation || 0) > 0);
assert.ok((buckets.get('energy')?.pressureScore || 0) >= (buckets.get('defense')?.pressureScore || 0));
const marketConsequences = worldState.simulationState?.marketConsequences;