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fix(simulation): actor overlap bonus finally fires -- source from stateSummary.actors not affectedAssets (#2477)
* fix(simulation): source actor overlap from candidatePacket.stateSummary.actors (#2459) The +0.04 actor overlap bonus in computeSimulationAdjustment has never fired in production because extractPathActors read hop.affectedAssets (financial instruments: "TTF gas futures", "European utility stocks") while sim keyActors are geo/political actors ("Houthi", "Iran", "Saudi Arabia") -- disjoint namespaces, actorOverlapCount=0 on every run. Fix: source actors from candidatePacket.stateSummary.actors (grounded stateUnit.actors, same domain as simulation keyActors). Strict precedence with no union: if stateSummary.actors raw list is non-empty, use only that; else fall back to affectedAssets for backward compat. Precedence is on raw list presence, not post-normalization length, so entries like ['---'] use stateSummary path without falling through. Also fixes normalizeActorName to handle underscore-separated LLM output ("Saudi_Arabia") and entity ID prefix stripping ("state-abc:iran"). Pattern /^[a-z][a-z0-9_-]*$/ strips lowercase ID prefixes but rejects uppercase ("US", "EU") and natural language ("New York") to prevent false strips. Both sides of the comparison go through the same function. Guards Array.isArray on both stateSummary.actors and keyActors to prevent crashes on non-array truthy values from malformed LLM snapshots. Retires extractPathActors (single call site, now inlined). Adds candidateActorCount and actorSource to SimulationAdjustmentDetail for observability. Exports normalizeActorName for test coverage. Tests: N-1/2/3/4 (normalizeActorName), T-F/G/H/I/K/L/L-pre/M (computeSimulationAdjustment), T-J (applySimulationMerge end-to-end). * fix(types): narrow channelSource to 'direct' | 'market' | 'none' union
This commit is contained in:
Elie Habib
@@ -73,6 +73,7 @@ import {
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matchesChannel,
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contradictsPremise,
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negatesDisruption,
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normalizeActorName,
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} from '../scripts/seed-forecasts.mjs';
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import {
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@@ -6298,6 +6299,7 @@ describe('phase 3 simulation re-ingestion — computeSimulationAdjustment', () =
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routeFacilityKey,
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commodityKey,
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marketContext: { topBucketId: 'energy', topChannel: 'energy_supply_shock' },
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stateSummary: { actors: ['Iran', 'Houthi movement', 'US Navy'] },
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});
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it('T1: bucket+channel match gives +0.08', () => {
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@@ -6481,6 +6483,163 @@ describe('phase 3 simulation re-ingestion — computeSimulationAdjustment', () =
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assert.equal(details.bucketChannelMatch, true);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.08);
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});
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it('T-F: stateSummary.actors overlap with underscore-formatted sim keyActors gives +0.04 bonus', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', []); // empty affectedAssets (production-realistic)
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const candidatePacket = {
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...makeCandidatePacket(),
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stateSummary: { actors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia', 'Houthi movement'] },
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};
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Oil supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption from Red Sea', keyActors: ['Iran', 'Saudi_Arabia', 'US'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.12); // +0.08 + +0.04
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assert.ok(details.actorOverlapCount >= 2); // "iran" + "saudi arabia" ✓
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assert.ok(details.bucketChannelMatch);
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assert.equal(details.actorSource, 'stateSummary');
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});
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it('T-G: entity ID format keyActors resolve to names via normalization', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', []);
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const candidatePacket = {
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...makeCandidatePacket(),
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stateSummary: { actors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia'] },
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};
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Oil supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: ['state-aa3f41bf4f:iran', 'state-aa3f41bf4f:saudi_arabia'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.12);
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assert.ok(details.actorOverlapCount >= 2);
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});
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it('T-H: without stateSummary.actors, affectedAssets still provides overlap', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', ['Iran', 'Houthi']);
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const candidatePacket = { ...makeCandidatePacket(), stateSummary: { actors: [] } };
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Oil supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: ['Iran', 'Houthi'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.12);
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assert.ok(details.actorOverlapCount >= 2);
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assert.equal(details.actorSource, 'affectedAssets');
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});
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it('T-I: no actors on either side gives actorOverlapCount=0', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', []);
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const candidatePacket = { ...makeCandidatePacket(), stateSummary: { actors: [] } };
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Oil supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: [] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.08); // bucket+channel only
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assert.equal(details.actorOverlapCount, 0);
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assert.equal(details.actorSource, 'none');
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});
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it('T-K: two paths for same candidate get identical actor result even when affectedAssets differ (strict precedence)', () => {
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const candidatePacket = {
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...makeCandidatePacket(),
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stateSummary: { actors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia'] },
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};
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const path1 = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', []); // affectedAssets empty
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const path2 = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', ['TTF gas futures', 'European utility stocks']); // different affectedAssets — irrelevant
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: ['Iran', 'Saudi_Arabia'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment: adj1, details: d1 } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path1, simResult, candidatePacket);
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const { adjustment: adj2, details: d2 } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path2, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adj1, 0.12);
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assert.equal(adj2, 0.12); // same — affectedAssets on path2 ignored due to strict precedence
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assert.equal(d1.actorSource, 'stateSummary');
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assert.equal(d2.actorSource, 'stateSummary');
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assert.equal(d1.candidateActorCount, d2.candidateActorCount); // identical — candidate-scoped
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});
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it('T-L: stateSummary.actors with only malformed entries triggers stateSummary path but no overlap (raw-presence check)', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia']); // affectedAssets present
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const candidatePacket = {
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...makeCandidatePacket(),
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stateSummary: { actors: ['---', ' '] }, // raw list non-empty → stateSummary wins, but normalizes to []
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};
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.08); // bucket/channel only — no actor overlap
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assert.equal(details.actorOverlapCount, 0);
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assert.equal(details.actorSource, 'stateSummary'); // raw list was present — no fallthrough to affectedAssets
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assert.equal(details.candidateActorCount, 0);
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});
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it('T-L-pre: non-array stateSummary.actors does not crash — treated as absent, falls back to affectedAssets', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia']);
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const candidatePacket = {
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...makeCandidatePacket(),
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stateSummary: { actors: 'Iran' }, // string, not array — common malformed snapshot shape
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};
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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// Should not throw; falls back to affectedAssets since actors is not an array
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(details.actorSource, 'affectedAssets');
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assert.ok(details.actorOverlapCount >= 2); // affectedAssets overlap works
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.12);
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});
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it('T-M: non-array keyActors in sim topPath does not crash — treated as empty, no overlap bonus', () => {
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const path = makePath('energy', 'energy_supply_shock', []);
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const candidatePacket = { ...makeCandidatePacket(), stateSummary: { actors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia'] } };
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const simResult = {
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption', keyActors: 'Iran' }], // string, not array
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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};
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const { adjustment, details } = computeSimulationAdjustment(path, simResult, candidatePacket);
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assert.equal(adjustment, 0.08); // bucket/channel only — keyActors is non-array, treated as []
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assert.equal(details.actorOverlapCount, 0);
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assert.equal(details.bucketChannelMatch, true);
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});
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});
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describe('normalizeActorName', () => {
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it('N-1: underscore-separated name normalizes to spaces', () => {
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('Saudi_Arabia'), 'saudi arabia');
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});
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it('N-2: entity ID prefix stripped before normalization', () => {
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// hex candidateStateId
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('state-aa3f41bf4f:saudi_arabia'), 'saudi arabia');
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// slug candidateStateId (alphanumeric + hyphens)
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('state-hormuz-1:houthi'), 'houthi');
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// fallback entity ID prefixes
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('logistics:red_sea'), 'red sea');
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('market:energy'), 'energy');
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// uppercase prefixes are NOT stripped — regression guard against "US:Navy"-style false strips
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('US: Navy'), 'us navy');
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('EU: Commission'), 'eu commission');
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// natural-language text with colon is NOT stripped (space in prefix)
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('New York: City'), 'new york city');
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});
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it('N-3: plain name unchanged except case', () => {
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('Saudi Arabia'), 'saudi arabia');
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('Iran'), 'iran');
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});
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it('N-4: malformed entry normalizes to empty string (no bonus credit)', () => {
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName('---'), '');
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName(''), '');
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assert.strictEqual(normalizeActorName(' '), '');
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});
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});
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describe('phase 3 simulation re-ingestion — applySimulationMerge', () => {
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@@ -6584,6 +6743,41 @@ describe('phase 3 simulation re-ingestion — applySimulationMerge', () => {
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assert.equal(simulationEvidence.pathsDemoted, 1, 'path should be demoted via candidateStateId lookup');
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assert.equal(simulationEvidence.adjustments.length, 1);
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});
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it('T-J: applySimulationMerge promotes 0.39 path to 0.51 via stateSummary.actors alone (empty affectedAssets)', () => {
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const stateA = 'state-actor-j';
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const candidateA = {
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candidateStateId: stateA, candidateIndex: 0,
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stateKind: 'maritime_disruption', routeFacilityKey: 'Red Sea', commodityKey: 'crude_oil',
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marketContext: { topBucketId: 'energy', topChannel: 'energy_supply_shock' },
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stateSummary: { actors: ['Iran', 'Saudi Arabia'] },
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};
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const pathA = {
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...makeExpandedPath(stateA, 0.39),
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candidate: candidateA,
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direct: { variableKey: 'route_disruption', targetBucket: '', channel: 'supply_disruption', affectedAssets: [] },
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};
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const evaluation = makeEval('completed_no_material_change', [], [pathA]);
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const simOutcome = {
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runId: 'sim-tj', isCurrentRun: true,
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theaterResults: [{
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theaterId: 'theater-1', candidateStateId: stateA,
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topPaths: [{ label: 'Oil supply shock', summary: 'energy supply disruption from Red Sea', keyActors: ['Iran', 'Saudi_Arabia'] }],
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invalidators: [], stabilizers: [],
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}],
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};
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const snapshot = {
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runId: '1774800000000-test01',
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generatedAt: 1774800000000,
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impactExpansionCandidates: [candidateA],
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deepForecast: { status: 'queued', selectedStateIds: [] },
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};
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const { evaluation: result } = applySimulationMerge(evaluation, simOutcome, snapshot.impactExpansionCandidates, snapshot, null);
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const promoted = (result.selectedPaths || []).find(p => p.candidateStateId === stateA && p.type === 'expanded');
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assert.ok(promoted, 'path should be promoted to selected');
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assert.ok(promoted.mergedAcceptanceScore >= 0.50, `score should be >= 0.50, got ${promoted.mergedAcceptanceScore}`);
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assert.ok(promoted.simulationAdjustment >= 0.12, 'should have +0.12 (bucket+channel + actor overlap)');
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});
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});
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describe('phase 3 simulation re-ingestion — matching helpers', () => {
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@@ -6763,6 +6957,9 @@ describe('phase 3 simulation re-ingestion — applyPostSimulationRescore', () =>
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topBucketId: 'energy',
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topChannel: 'energy_supply_shock',
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},
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// Empty stateSummary.actors — rescore integration tests use affectedAssets for actor overlap.
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// Actor-overlap-specific tests create their own inline candidatePackets with stateSummary.actors.
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stateSummary: { actors: [] },
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});
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const makeRescoreSimOutcome = (stateId) => ({
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