fix(forecast): bundle military surge inputs (#1706)

2026-04-25 17:14:57 +02:00 · 2026-03-16 08:40:14 +04:00
parent d101c03009
commit a4914607bb
7 changed files with 360 additions and 59 deletions
--- a/api/health.js
+++ b/api/health.js
@@ -105,6 +105,7 @@ const SEED_META = {
  iranEvents:       { key: 'seed-meta:conflict:iran-events',      maxStaleMin: 10080 },
  ucdpEvents:       { key: 'seed-meta:conflict:ucdp-events',      maxStaleMin: 420 },
  militaryFlights:  { key: 'seed-meta:military:flights',           maxStaleMin: 15 },
+  militaryForecastInputs: { key: 'seed-meta:military-forecast-inputs', maxStaleMin: 15 },
  satellites:       { key: 'seed-meta:intelligence:satellites',    maxStaleMin: 180 },
  weatherAlerts:    { key: 'seed-meta:weather:alerts',             maxStaleMin: 30 },
  spending:         { key: 'seed-meta:economic:spending',          maxStaleMin: 120 },
--- a/api/seed-health.js
+++ b/api/seed-health.js
@@ -34,6 +34,7 @@ const SEED_DOMAINS = {
  'intelligence:gpsjam':      { key: 'seed-meta:intelligence:gpsjam',      intervalMin: 360 },
  'intelligence:satellites':  { key: 'seed-meta:intelligence:satellites',  intervalMin: 90 },
  'military:flights':         { key: 'seed-meta:military:flights',         intervalMin: 8 },
+  'military-forecast-inputs': { key: 'seed-meta:military-forecast-inputs', intervalMin: 8 },
  'infra:service-statuses':   { key: 'seed-meta:infra:service-statuses',   intervalMin: 60 },
  'supply_chain:shipping':    { key: 'seed-meta:supply_chain:shipping',    intervalMin: 120 },
  'supply_chain:chokepoints': { key: 'seed-meta:supply_chain:chokepoints', intervalMin: 30 },
--- a/scripts/_military-surges.mjs
+++ b/scripts/_military-surges.mjs
@@ -36,6 +36,12 @@ function getComparableTheaterSnapshots(history, theaterId, sourceVersion = '') {
    .slice(-BASELINE_WINDOW);
 }

+function countPersistentSnapshots(snapshots, field, baseline, minCount, thresholdFactor = 1) {
+  const recent = snapshots.slice(-3);
+  const threshold = Math.max(minCount, baseline * thresholdFactor);
+  return recent.filter((snapshot) => (snapshot?.[field] || 0) >= threshold).length;
+}
+
 export function summarizeMilitaryTheaters(flights, theaters, assessedAt = Date.now()) {
  return theaters.map((theater) => {
    const theaterFlights = flights.filter(
@@ -112,6 +118,8 @@ export function buildMilitarySurges(theaterSummaries, history, opts = {}) {
      const effectiveBaseline = Math.max(1, baselineCount);
      if (currentCount < minCount) return;
      if (currentCount < effectiveBaseline * surgeThreshold) return;
+      const field = surgeType === 'fighter' ? 'fighters' : 'transport';
+      const persistenceCount = countPersistentSnapshots(priorSnapshots, field, effectiveBaseline, minCount, surgeThreshold);

      surges.push({
        id: `${surgeType}-${summary.theaterId}`,
@@ -132,6 +140,8 @@ export function buildMilitarySurges(theaterSummaries, history, opts = {}) {
        dominantOperator: dominantOperator?.[0] || '',
        dominantOperatorCount: dominantOperator?.[1] || 0,
        historyPoints: priorSnapshots.length,
+        persistenceCount,
+        persistent: persistenceCount >= 1,
        assessedAt: summary.assessedAt,
      });
    };
@@ -145,6 +155,7 @@ export function buildMilitarySurges(theaterSummaries, history, opts = {}) {
      summary.totalFlights >= Math.max(6, Math.ceil(effectiveTotalBaseline * totalSurgeThreshold)) &&
      totalChangePct >= 40
    ) {
+      const persistenceCount = countPersistentSnapshots(priorSnapshots, 'totalFlights', effectiveTotalBaseline, 6, totalSurgeThreshold);
      surges.push({
        id: `air-activity-${summary.theaterId}`,
        theaterId: summary.theaterId,
@@ -164,6 +175,8 @@ export function buildMilitarySurges(theaterSummaries, history, opts = {}) {
        dominantOperator: dominantOperator?.[0] || '',
        dominantOperatorCount: dominantOperator?.[1] || 0,
        historyPoints: priorSnapshots.length,
+        persistenceCount,
+        persistent: persistenceCount >= 1,
        assessedAt: summary.assessedAt,
      });
    }
--- a/scripts/seed-forecasts.mjs
+++ b/scripts/seed-forecasts.mjs
@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ const TRACE_RUNS_MAX = 50;
 const TRACE_REDIS_TTL_SECONDS = 60 * 24 * 60 * 60;
 const PUBLISH_MIN_PROBABILITY = 0;
 const MAX_MILITARY_SURGE_AGE_MS = 3 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
+const MAX_MILITARY_BUNDLE_DRIFT_MS = 5 * 60 * 1000;

 const THEATER_IDS = [
  'iran-theater', 'taiwan-theater', 'baltic-theater',
@@ -53,6 +54,15 @@ const THEATER_LABELS = {
  'yemen-redsea-theater': 'Yemen/Red Sea',
 };

+const THEATER_EXPECTED_ACTORS = {
+  'taiwan-theater': { countries: ['China'], operators: ['plaaf', 'plan'] },
+  'south-china-sea': { countries: ['China', 'USA', 'Japan', 'Philippines'], operators: ['plaaf', 'plan', 'usaf', 'usn'] },
+  'korea-theater': { countries: ['USA', 'South Korea', 'China', 'Japan'], operators: ['usaf', 'usn', 'plaaf'] },
+  'baltic-theater': { countries: ['NATO', 'USA', 'UK', 'Germany'], operators: ['nato', 'usaf', 'raf', 'gaf'] },
+  'blacksea-theater': { countries: ['Russia', 'NATO', 'Turkey'], operators: ['vks', 'nato'] },
+  'iran-theater': { countries: ['Iran', 'USA', 'Israel', 'UK'], operators: ['usaf', 'raf', 'iaf'] },
+};
+
 const CHOKEPOINT_COMMODITIES = {
  'Middle East': { commodity: 'Oil', sensitivity: 0.8 },
  'Red Sea': { commodity: 'Shipping/Oil', sensitivity: 0.7 },
@@ -169,8 +179,8 @@ async function readInputKeys() {
  const keys = [
    'risk:scores:sebuf:stale:v1',
    'temporal:anomalies:v1',
-    'theater-posture:sebuf:stale:v1',
-    'military:surges:stale:v1',
+    'theater_posture:sebuf:stale:v1',
+    'military:forecast-inputs:stale:v1',
    'prediction:markets-bootstrap:v1',
    'supply_chain:chokepoints:v4',
    'conflict:iran-events:v1',
@@ -200,7 +210,7 @@ async function readInputKeys() {
    ciiScores: parse(0),
    temporalAnomalies: parse(1),
    theaterPosture: parse(2),
-    militarySurges: parse(3),
+    militaryForecastInputs: parse(3),
    predictionMarkets: parse(4),
    chokepoints: normalizeChokepoints(parse(5)),
    iranEvents: parse(6),
@@ -226,6 +236,81 @@ function normalize(value, min, max) {
  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, (value - min) / (max - min)));
 }

+function getFreshMilitaryForecastInputs(inputs, now = Date.now()) {
+  const bundle = inputs?.militaryForecastInputs;
+  if (!bundle || typeof bundle !== 'object') return null;
+
+  const fetchedAt = Number(bundle.fetchedAt || 0);
+  if (!fetchedAt || now - fetchedAt > MAX_MILITARY_SURGE_AGE_MS) return null;
+
+  const theaters = Array.isArray(bundle.theaters) ? bundle.theaters : [];
+  const surges = Array.isArray(bundle.surges) ? bundle.surges : [];
+
+  const isAligned = (value) => {
+    const ts = Number(value || 0);
+    if (!ts) return true;
+    return Math.abs(ts - fetchedAt) <= MAX_MILITARY_BUNDLE_DRIFT_MS;
+  };
+
+  if (!theaters.every((theater) => isAligned(theater?.assessedAt))) return null;
+  if (!surges.every((surge) => isAligned(surge?.assessedAt))) return null;
+
+  return bundle;
+}
+
+function selectPrimaryMilitarySurge(theaterId, surges) {
+  const typePriority = { fighter: 3, airlift: 2, air_activity: 1 };
+  return surges
+    .slice()
+    .sort((a, b) => {
+      const aScore = (typePriority[a.surgeType] || 0) * 10
+        + (a.persistent ? 5 : 0)
+        + (a.persistenceCount || 0) * 2
+        + (a.strikeCapable ? 2 : 0)
+        + (a.awacs > 0 || a.tankers > 0 ? 1 : 0)
+        + (a.surgeMultiple || 0);
+      const bScore = (typePriority[b.surgeType] || 0) * 10
+        + (b.persistent ? 5 : 0)
+        + (b.persistenceCount || 0) * 2
+        + (b.strikeCapable ? 2 : 0)
+        + (b.awacs > 0 || b.tankers > 0 ? 1 : 0)
+        + (b.surgeMultiple || 0);
+      return bScore - aScore;
+    })[0] || null;
+}
+
+function computeTheaterActorScore(theaterId, surge) {
+  if (!surge) return 0;
+  const expected = THEATER_EXPECTED_ACTORS[theaterId];
+  if (!expected) return 0;
+
+  const dominantCountry = surge.dominantCountry || '';
+  const dominantOperator = surge.dominantOperator || '';
+  const countryMatch = dominantCountry && expected.countries.includes(dominantCountry);
+  const operatorMatch = dominantOperator && expected.operators.includes(dominantOperator);
+
+  if (countryMatch || operatorMatch) return 0.12;
+  if (dominantCountry || dominantOperator) return -0.12;
+  return 0;
+}
+
+function canPromoteMilitarySurge(posture, surge) {
+  if (!surge) return false;
+  if (surge.surgeType !== 'air_activity') return true;
+  if (posture === 'critical' || posture === 'elevated') return true;
+  if (surge.persistent || surge.surgeMultiple >= 3.5) return true;
+  if (surge.strikeCapable || surge.fighters >= 4 || surge.awacs > 0 || surge.tankers > 0) return true;
+  return false;
+}
+
+function buildMilitaryForecastTitle(theaterId, theaterLabel, surge) {
+  if (!surge) return `Military posture escalation: ${theaterLabel}`;
+  const countryPrefix = surge.dominantCountry ? `${surge.dominantCountry}-linked ` : '';
+  if (surge.surgeType === 'fighter') return `${countryPrefix}fighter surge near ${theaterLabel}`;
+  if (surge.surgeType === 'airlift') return `${countryPrefix}airlift surge near ${theaterLabel}`;
+  return `Elevated military air activity near ${theaterLabel}`;
+}
+
 function resolveCountryName(raw) {
  if (!raw || raw.length > 3) return raw; // already a full name or long-form
  const codes = loadCountryCodes();
@@ -348,15 +433,16 @@ function detectConflictScenarios(inputs) {
  }

  for (const t of theaters) {
-    if (!t?.id) continue;
+    const theaterId = t?.id || t?.theater;
+    if (!theaterId) continue;
    const posture = t.postureLevel || t.posture || '';
    if (posture !== 'critical' && posture !== 'elevated') continue;
-    const region = THEATER_REGIONS[t.id] || t.name || t.id;
+    const region = THEATER_REGIONS[theaterId] || t.name || theaterId;
    const alreadyCovered = predictions.some(p => p.region === region);
    if (alreadyCovered) continue;

    const signals = [
-      { type: 'theater', value: `${t.name || t.id} posture: ${posture}`, weight: 0.5 },
+      { type: 'theater', value: `${t.name || theaterId} posture: ${posture}`, weight: 0.5 },
    ];
    const prob = posture === 'critical' ? 0.65 : 0.4;

@@ -557,13 +643,10 @@ function detectPoliticalScenarios(inputs) {

 function detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs) {
  const predictions = [];
-  const theaters = inputs.theaterPosture?.theaters || [];
+  const militaryInputs = getFreshMilitaryForecastInputs(inputs);
+  const theaters = militaryInputs?.theaters || [];
  const anomalies = Array.isArray(inputs.temporalAnomalies) ? inputs.temporalAnomalies : inputs.temporalAnomalies?.anomalies || [];
-  const surgeFetchedAt = Number(inputs.militarySurges?.fetchedAt || 0);
-  const surgeIsFresh = surgeFetchedAt > 0 && (Date.now() - surgeFetchedAt) <= MAX_MILITARY_SURGE_AGE_MS;
-  const surgeItems = surgeIsFresh
-    ? (Array.isArray(inputs.militarySurges) ? inputs.militarySurges : inputs.militarySurges?.surges || [])
-    : [];
+  const surgeItems = Array.isArray(militaryInputs) ? militaryInputs : militaryInputs?.surges || [];
  const theatersById = new Map(theaters.map((theater) => [(theater?.id || theater?.theater), theater]).filter(([theaterId]) => !!theaterId));
  const surgesByTheater = new Map();

@@ -584,15 +667,16 @@ function detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs) {
    const theaterSurges = surgesByTheater.get(theaterId) || [];
    if (!theaterId) continue;
    const posture = t?.postureLevel || t?.posture || '';
-    const highestSurge = theaterSurges
-      .slice()
-      .sort((a, b) => (b.surgeMultiple || 0) - (a.surgeMultiple || 0))[0];
-    if (posture !== 'elevated' && posture !== 'critical' && !highestSurge) continue;
+    const highestSurge = selectPrimaryMilitarySurge(theaterId, theaterSurges);
+    const surgeIsUsable = canPromoteMilitarySurge(posture, highestSurge);
+    if (posture !== 'elevated' && posture !== 'critical' && !surgeIsUsable) continue;

    const region = THEATER_REGIONS[theaterId] || t?.name || theaterId;
    const theaterLabel = THEATER_LABELS[theaterId] || t?.name || theaterId;
    const signals = [];
    let sourceCount = 0;
+    const actorScore = computeTheaterActorScore(theaterId, highestSurge);
+    const persistent = !!highestSurge?.persistent || (highestSurge?.surgeMultiple || 0) >= 3.5;

    if (posture === 'elevated' || posture === 'critical') {
      signals.push({ type: 'theater', value: `${theaterLabel} posture: ${posture}`, weight: 0.45 });
@@ -632,6 +716,22 @@ function detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs) {
        });
        sourceCount++;
      }
+      if (highestSurge.persistenceCount > 0) {
+        signals.push({
+          type: 'persistence',
+          value: `${highestSurge.persistenceCount} prior run(s) in ${theaterLabel} were already above baseline`,
+          weight: 0.18,
+        });
+        sourceCount++;
+      }
+      if (actorScore > 0) {
+        signals.push({
+          type: 'theater_actor_fit',
+          value: `${highestSurge.dominantCountry || highestSurge.dominantOperator} aligns with expected actors in ${theaterLabel}`,
+          weight: 0.16,
+        });
+        sourceCount++;
+      }
    }

    if (t?.indicators && Array.isArray(t.indicators)) {
@@ -643,16 +743,22 @@ function detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs) {
    }

    const baseLine = highestSurge
-      ? Math.min(0.7, 0.35 + Math.max(0, ((highestSurge.surgeMultiple || 1) - 1) * 0.12))
+      ? highestSurge.surgeType === 'fighter'
+        ? Math.min(0.72, 0.42 + Math.max(0, ((highestSurge.surgeMultiple || 1) - 1) * 0.1))
+        : highestSurge.surgeType === 'airlift'
+          ? Math.min(0.58, 0.32 + Math.max(0, ((highestSurge.surgeMultiple || 1) - 1) * 0.08))
+          : Math.min(0.42, 0.2 + Math.max(0, ((highestSurge.surgeMultiple || 1) - 1) * 0.05))
      : posture === 'critical' ? 0.6 : 0.35;
    const flightBoost = milFlights.length > 0 ? 0.1 : 0;
    const postureBoost = posture === 'critical' ? 0.12 : posture === 'elevated' ? 0.06 : 0;
    const supportBoost = highestSurge && (highestSurge.awacs > 0 || highestSurge.tankers > 0) ? 0.05 : 0;
    const strikeBoost = (t?.activeOperations?.includes?.('strike_capable') || highestSurge?.strikeCapable) ? 0.06 : 0;
-    const prob = Math.min(0.9, baseLine + flightBoost + postureBoost + supportBoost + strikeBoost);
+    const persistenceBoost = persistent ? 0.08 : 0;
+    const genericPenalty = highestSurge?.surgeType === 'air_activity' && !persistent ? 0.12 : 0;
+    const prob = Math.min(0.9, Math.max(0.05, baseLine + flightBoost + postureBoost + supportBoost + strikeBoost + persistenceBoost + actorScore - genericPenalty));
    const confidence = Math.max(0.3, normalize(sourceCount, 0, 4));
    const title = highestSurge
-      ? `Military air surge: ${theaterLabel}`
+      ? buildMilitaryForecastTitle(theaterId, theaterLabel, highestSurge)
      : `Military posture escalation: ${region}`;

    predictions.push(makePrediction(
@@ -2773,6 +2879,7 @@ export {
  detectCyberScenarios,
  detectGpsJammingScenarios,
  detectFromPredictionMarkets,
+  getFreshMilitaryForecastInputs,
  loadEntityGraph,
  discoverGraphCascades,
  MARITIME_REGIONS,
--- a/scripts/seed-military-flights.mjs
+++ b/scripts/seed-military-flights.mjs
@@ -2,9 +2,11 @@

 import { loadEnvFile, CHROME_UA, getRedisCredentials, acquireLock, releaseLock, withRetry, writeFreshnessMetadata, logSeedResult, verifySeedKey, extendExistingTtl } from './_seed-utils.mjs';
 import { summarizeMilitaryTheaters, buildMilitarySurges, appendMilitaryHistory } from './_military-surges.mjs';
+import { spawn } from 'node:child_process';
 import http from 'node:http';
 import https from 'node:https';
 import tls from 'node:tls';
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';

 loadEnvFile(import.meta.url);

@@ -19,6 +21,10 @@ const THEATER_POSTURE_BACKUP_KEY = 'theater-posture:sebuf:backup:v1';
 const THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_TTL = 900;
 const THEATER_POSTURE_STALE_TTL = 86400;
 const THEATER_POSTURE_BACKUP_TTL = 604800;
+const MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_LIVE_KEY = 'military:forecast-inputs:v1';
+const MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_STALE_KEY = 'military:forecast-inputs:stale:v1';
+const MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_LIVE_TTL = 900;
+const MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_STALE_TTL = 86400;
 const MILITARY_SURGES_LIVE_KEY = 'military:surges:v1';
 const MILITARY_SURGES_STALE_KEY = 'military:surges:stale:v1';
 const MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_KEY = 'military:surges:history:v1';
@@ -26,6 +32,7 @@ const MILITARY_SURGES_LIVE_TTL = 900;
 const MILITARY_SURGES_STALE_TTL = 86400;
 const MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_TTL = 604800;
 const MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_MAX = 72;
+const CHAIN_FORECAST_SEED = process.env.CHAIN_FORECAST_SEED_ON_MILITARY === '1';

 // ── Proxy Config ─────────────────────────────────────────
 const OPENSKY_PROXY_AUTH = process.env.OPENSKY_PROXY_AUTH || process.env.OREF_PROXY_AUTH || '';
@@ -636,11 +643,32 @@ async function redisGet(url, token, key) {
  try { return JSON.parse(data.result); } catch { return null; }
 }

+async function triggerForecastSeedIfEnabled() {
+  if (!CHAIN_FORECAST_SEED) return;
+
+  const scriptPath = fileURLToPath(new URL('./seed-forecasts.mjs', import.meta.url));
+  console.log('  Triggering forecast reseed after military publish...');
+
+  await new Promise((resolve, reject) => {
+    const child = spawn(process.execPath, [scriptPath], {
+      stdio: 'inherit',
+      env: process.env,
+    });
+
+    child.once('error', reject);
+    child.once('exit', (code) => {
+      if (code === 0) resolve();
+      else reject(new Error(`forecast reseed exited with code ${code}`));
+    });
+  });
+}
+
 // ── Main ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
 async function main() {
  const startMs = Date.now();
  const runId = `${Date.now()}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 8)}`;
  const { url, token } = getRedisCredentials();
+  let lockReleased = false;

  console.log(`=== military:flights Seed (proxy: ${PROXY_ENABLED ? 'enabled' : 'direct'}) ===`);

@@ -662,8 +690,8 @@ async function main() {
    await releaseLock('military:flights', runId);
    console.error(`  FETCH FAILED: ${err.message || err}`);
    await extendExistingTtl([LIVE_KEY], LIVE_TTL);
-    await extendExistingTtl([STALE_KEY, THEATER_POSTURE_STALE_KEY, MILITARY_SURGES_STALE_KEY], STALE_TTL);
-    await extendExistingTtl([THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_KEY], THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_TTL);
+    await extendExistingTtl([STALE_KEY, THEATER_POSTURE_STALE_KEY, MILITARY_SURGES_STALE_KEY, MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_STALE_KEY], STALE_TTL);
+    await extendExistingTtl([THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_KEY, MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_LIVE_KEY], THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_TTL);
    await extendExistingTtl([THEATER_POSTURE_BACKUP_KEY], THEATER_POSTURE_BACKUP_TTL);
    await extendExistingTtl([MILITARY_SURGES_LIVE_KEY], MILITARY_SURGES_LIVE_TTL);
    console.log(`\n=== Failed gracefully (${Math.round(Date.now() - startMs)}ms) ===`);
@@ -673,11 +701,13 @@ async function main() {
  if (flights.length === 0) {
    console.log('  SKIPPED: 0 military flights — preserving stale data');
    await releaseLock('military:flights', runId);
+    lockReleased = true;
    process.exit(0);
  }

  try {
-    const payload = { flights, fetchedAt: Date.now(), stats: { total: flights.length, byType } };
+    const assessedAt = Date.now();
+    const payload = { flights, fetchedAt: assessedAt, stats: { total: flights.length, byType } };

    await redisSet(url, token, LIVE_KEY, payload, LIVE_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, STALE_KEY, payload, STALE_TTL);
@@ -696,44 +726,72 @@ async function main() {
      altitude: f.altitude || 0, heading: f.heading || 0, speed: f.speed || 0,
      aircraftType: f.aircraftType || detectAircraftType(f.callsign),
    }));
-    const theaters = calculateTheaterPostures(theaterFlights);
+    const theaters = calculateTheaterPostures(theaterFlights).map((theater) => ({
+      ...theater,
+      assessedAt,
+    }));
    const posturePayload = { theaters };
    await redisSet(url, token, THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_KEY, posturePayload, THEATER_POSTURE_LIVE_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, THEATER_POSTURE_STALE_KEY, posturePayload, THEATER_POSTURE_STALE_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, THEATER_POSTURE_BACKUP_KEY, posturePayload, THEATER_POSTURE_BACKUP_TTL);
-    await redisSet(url, token, 'seed-meta:theater-posture', { fetchedAt: Date.now(), recordCount: theaterFlights.length, sourceVersion: source || '' }, 604800);
+    await redisSet(url, token, 'seed-meta:theater-posture', { fetchedAt: assessedAt, recordCount: theaterFlights.length, sourceVersion: source || '' }, 604800);
    const elevated = theaters.filter((t) => t.postureLevel !== 'normal').length;
    console.log(`  Theater posture: ${theaters.length} theaters (${elevated} elevated)`);

    const priorSurgeHistory = ((await redisGet(url, token, MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_KEY))?.history || []);
-    const theaterActivity = summarizeMilitaryTheaters(flights, POSTURE_THEATERS);
+    const theaterActivity = summarizeMilitaryTheaters(flights, POSTURE_THEATERS, assessedAt);
    const surges = buildMilitarySurges(theaterActivity, priorSurgeHistory, { sourceVersion: source || '' });
    const surgePayload = {
      surges,
      theaters: theaterActivity,
-      fetchedAt: Date.now(),
+      fetchedAt: assessedAt,
      sourceVersion: source || '',
    };
+    const forecastInputsPayload = {
+      fetchedAt: assessedAt,
+      sourceVersion: source || '',
+      theaters,
+      theaterActivity,
+      surges,
+      stats: {
+        totalFlights: flights.length,
+        elevatedTheaters: elevated,
+      },
+    };
    const surgeHistory = appendMilitaryHistory(priorSurgeHistory, {
-      assessedAt: Date.now(),
+      assessedAt,
      sourceVersion: source || '',
      theaters: theaterActivity,
    }, MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_MAX);
+    await redisSet(url, token, MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_LIVE_KEY, forecastInputsPayload, MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_LIVE_TTL);
+    await redisSet(url, token, MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_STALE_KEY, forecastInputsPayload, MILITARY_FORECAST_INPUTS_STALE_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, MILITARY_SURGES_LIVE_KEY, surgePayload, MILITARY_SURGES_LIVE_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, MILITARY_SURGES_STALE_KEY, surgePayload, MILITARY_SURGES_STALE_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_KEY, { history: surgeHistory }, MILITARY_SURGES_HISTORY_TTL);
    await redisSet(url, token, 'seed-meta:military-surges', {
-      fetchedAt: Date.now(),
+      fetchedAt: assessedAt,
      recordCount: surges.length,
      sourceVersion: source || '',
    }, 604800);
+    await redisSet(url, token, 'seed-meta:military-forecast-inputs', {
+      fetchedAt: assessedAt,
+      recordCount: theaters.length,
+      sourceVersion: source || '',
+    }, 604800);
    console.log(`  Military surges: ${surges.length} detected (history: ${surgeHistory.length} runs)`);
+    await releaseLock('military:flights', runId);
+    lockReleased = true;
+    try {
+      await triggerForecastSeedIfEnabled();
+    } catch (err) {
+      console.warn(`  Forecast reseed failed after military publish: ${err.message || err}`);
+    }

    const durationMs = Date.now() - startMs;
    logSeedResult('military', flights.length, durationMs);
    console.log(`\n=== Done (${Math.round(durationMs)}ms) ===`);
  } finally {
-    await releaseLock('military:flights', runId);
+    if (!lockReleased) await releaseLock('military:flights', runId);
  }
 }

--- a/tests/forecast-detectors.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/forecast-detectors.test.mjs
@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ import {
  detectCyberScenarios,
  detectGpsJammingScenarios,
  detectFromPredictionMarkets,
+  getFreshMilitaryForecastInputs,
  normalizeChokepoints,
  normalizeGpsJamming,
  loadEntityGraph,
@@ -421,6 +422,18 @@ describe('detectConflictScenarios', () => {
    assert.ok(result.length >= 1);
    assert.equal(result[0].region, 'Middle East');
  });
+
+  it('accepts theater posture entries that use theater instead of id', () => {
+    const inputs = {
+      ciiScores: [],
+      theaterPosture: { theaters: [{ theater: 'taiwan-theater', name: 'Taiwan Theater', postureLevel: 'elevated' }] },
+      iranEvents: [],
+      ucdpEvents: [],
+    };
+    const result = detectConflictScenarios(inputs);
+    assert.ok(result.length >= 1);
+    assert.equal(result[0].region, 'Western Pacific');
+  });
 });

 describe('detectMarketScenarios', () => {
@@ -539,7 +552,7 @@ describe('detectPoliticalScenarios', () => {
 describe('detectMilitaryScenarios', () => {
  it('accepts live theater entries that use theater instead of id', () => {
    const inputs = {
-      theaterPosture: { theaters: [{ theater: 'baltic-theater', postureLevel: 'critical', activeFlights: 12 }] },
+      militaryForecastInputs: { fetchedAt: Date.now(), theaters: [{ theater: 'baltic-theater', postureLevel: 'critical', activeFlights: 12 }] },
      temporalAnomalies: { anomalies: [] },
    };
    const result = detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs);
@@ -550,10 +563,45 @@ describe('detectMilitaryScenarios', () => {

  it('creates a military forecast from theater surge data even before posture turns elevated', () => {
    const inputs = {
-      theaterPosture: { theaters: [{ theater: 'taiwan-theater', postureLevel: 'normal', activeFlights: 5 }] },
      temporalAnomalies: { anomalies: [] },
-      militarySurges: {
+      militaryForecastInputs: {
        fetchedAt: Date.now(),
+        theaters: [{ theater: 'taiwan-theater', postureLevel: 'normal', activeFlights: 5 }],
+        surges: [{
+          theaterId: 'taiwan-theater',
+          surgeType: 'fighter',
+          currentCount: 8,
+          baselineCount: 2,
+          surgeMultiple: 4,
+          persistent: true,
+          persistenceCount: 2,
+          postureLevel: 'normal',
+          strikeCapable: true,
+          fighters: 8,
+          tankers: 1,
+          awacs: 1,
+          dominantCountry: 'China',
+          dominantCountryCount: 6,
+          dominantOperator: 'plaaf',
+        }],
+      },
+    };
+    const result = detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs);
+    assert.equal(result.length, 1);
+    assert.equal(result[0].title, 'China-linked fighter surge near Taiwan Strait');
+    assert.ok(result[0].probability >= 0.7);
+    assert.ok(result[0].signals.some((signal) => signal.type === 'mil_surge'));
+    assert.ok(result[0].signals.some((signal) => signal.type === 'operator'));
+    assert.ok(result[0].signals.some((signal) => signal.type === 'persistence'));
+    assert.ok(result[0].signals.some((signal) => signal.type === 'theater_actor_fit'));
+  });
+
+  it('ignores stale military surge payloads', () => {
+    const inputs = {
+      temporalAnomalies: { anomalies: [] },
+      militaryForecastInputs: {
+        fetchedAt: Date.now() - (4 * 60 * 60 * 1000),
+        theaters: [{ theater: 'taiwan-theater', postureLevel: 'normal', activeFlights: 5 }],
        surges: [{
          theaterId: 'taiwan-theater',
          surgeType: 'fighter',
@@ -571,32 +619,42 @@ describe('detectMilitaryScenarios', () => {
      },
    };
    const result = detectMilitaryScenarios(inputs);
-    assert.equal(result.length, 1);
-    assert.equal(result[0].title, 'Military air surge: Taiwan Strait');
-    assert.ok(result[0].probability >= 0.7);
-    assert.ok(result[0].signals.some((signal) => signal.type === 'mil_surge'));
-    assert.ok(result[0].signals.some((signal) => signal.type === 'operator'));
+    assert.equal(result.length, 0);
  });

-  it('ignores stale military surge payloads', () => {
+  it('rejects military bundles whose theater timestamps drift from fetchedAt', () => {
+    const bundle = getFreshMilitaryForecastInputs({
+      militaryForecastInputs: {
+        fetchedAt: Date.now(),
+        theaters: [{ theater: 'taiwan-theater', postureLevel: 'elevated', assessedAt: Date.now() - (6 * 60 * 1000) }],
+        surges: [],
+      },
+    });
+    assert.equal(bundle, null);
+  });
+
+  it('suppresses one-off generic air activity when it lacks persistence and theater-relevant actors', () => {
    const inputs = {
-      theaterPosture: { theaters: [{ theater: 'taiwan-theater', postureLevel: 'normal', activeFlights: 5 }] },
      temporalAnomalies: { anomalies: [] },
-      militarySurges: {
-        fetchedAt: Date.now() - (4 * 60 * 60 * 1000),
+      militaryForecastInputs: {
+        fetchedAt: Date.now(),
+        theaters: [{ theater: 'iran-theater', postureLevel: 'normal', activeFlights: 6 }],
        surges: [{
-          theaterId: 'taiwan-theater',
-          surgeType: 'fighter',
-          currentCount: 8,
-          baselineCount: 2,
-          surgeMultiple: 4,
+          theaterId: 'iran-theater',
+          surgeType: 'air_activity',
+          currentCount: 6,
+          baselineCount: 2.7,
+          surgeMultiple: 2.22,
+          persistent: false,
+          persistenceCount: 0,
          postureLevel: 'normal',
-          strikeCapable: true,
-          fighters: 8,
-          tankers: 1,
-          awacs: 1,
-          dominantCountry: 'China',
-          dominantCountryCount: 6,
+          strikeCapable: false,
+          fighters: 0,
+          tankers: 0,
+          awacs: 0,
+          dominantCountry: 'Qatar',
+          dominantCountryCount: 4,
+          dominantOperator: 'other',
        }],
      },
    };
--- a/tests/military-surges.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/military-surges.test.mjs
@@ -33,15 +33,79 @@ describe('military surge signals', () => {
  it('detects fighter surges against prior baseline history', () => {
    const history = appendMilitaryHistory([], {
      assessedAt: 1,
-      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 2, transport: 1, totalFlights: 4 }],
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 1, transport: 1, totalFlights: 3 }],
    });
    const history2 = appendMilitaryHistory(history, {
      assessedAt: 2,
-      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 2, transport: 1, totalFlights: 5 }],
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 1, transport: 1, totalFlights: 3 }],
    });
    const history3 = appendMilitaryHistory(history2, {
      assessedAt: 3,
-      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 2, transport: 1, totalFlights: 4 }],
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 1, transport: 1, totalFlights: 3 }],
+    });
+    const history4 = appendMilitaryHistory(history3, {
+      assessedAt: 4,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 1, transport: 1, totalFlights: 3 }],
+    });
+    const history5 = appendMilitaryHistory(history4, {
+      assessedAt: 5,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 1, transport: 1, totalFlights: 3 }],
+    });
+    const history6 = appendMilitaryHistory(history5, {
+      assessedAt: 6,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 1, transport: 1, totalFlights: 3 }],
+    });
+    const history7 = appendMilitaryHistory(history6, {
+      assessedAt: 7,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 6, transport: 1, totalFlights: 8 }],
+    });
+    const history8 = appendMilitaryHistory(history7, {
+      assessedAt: 8,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 6, transport: 1, totalFlights: 8 }],
+    });
+    const history9 = appendMilitaryHistory(history8, {
+      assessedAt: 9,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 6, transport: 1, totalFlights: 8 }],
+    });
+
+    const surges = buildMilitarySurges([{
+      theaterId: 'taiwan-theater',
+      assessedAt: 10,
+      totalFlights: 10,
+      postureLevel: 'elevated',
+      strikeCapable: true,
+      fighters: 8,
+      tankers: 1,
+      awacs: 1,
+      transport: 1,
+      reconnaissance: 0,
+      bombers: 0,
+      drones: 0,
+      byOperator: { plaaf: 8 },
+      byCountry: { China: 8 },
+    }], history9);
+
+    assert.ok(surges.some((surge) => surge.surgeType === 'fighter'));
+    const fighter = surges.find((surge) => surge.surgeType === 'fighter');
+    assert.equal(fighter.theaterId, 'taiwan-theater');
+    assert.equal(fighter.dominantCountry, 'China');
+    assert.ok(fighter.surgeMultiple >= 2);
+    assert.ok(fighter.persistent);
+    assert.ok(fighter.persistenceCount >= 1);
+  });
+
+  it('requires recent snapshots to clear the same surge thresholds before marking persistence', () => {
+    const history = appendMilitaryHistory([], {
+      assessedAt: 1,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 3, transport: 1, totalFlights: 5 }],
+    });
+    const history2 = appendMilitaryHistory(history, {
+      assessedAt: 2,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 3, transport: 1, totalFlights: 5 }],
+    });
+    const history3 = appendMilitaryHistory(history2, {
+      assessedAt: 3,
+      theaters: [{ theaterId: 'taiwan-theater', fighters: 3, transport: 1, totalFlights: 5 }],
    });

    const surges = buildMilitarySurges([{
@@ -61,11 +125,10 @@ describe('military surge signals', () => {
      byCountry: { China: 8 },
    }], history3);

-    assert.ok(surges.some((surge) => surge.surgeType === 'fighter'));
    const fighter = surges.find((surge) => surge.surgeType === 'fighter');
-    assert.equal(fighter.theaterId, 'taiwan-theater');
-    assert.equal(fighter.dominantCountry, 'China');
-    assert.ok(fighter.surgeMultiple >= 3.5);
+    assert.ok(fighter);
+    assert.equal(fighter.persistent, false);
+    assert.equal(fighter.persistenceCount, 0);
  });

  it('does not build a baseline from a different source family', () => {