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https://github.com/koala73/worldmonitor.git
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feat(forecast): add queued deep forecast search (#2155)
* feat(forecast): add queued deep forecast search * test(forecast): cover deep path scoring
This commit is contained in:
Elie Habib
@@ -24,7 +24,14 @@ import {
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mapCriticalSignalFrameToSignals,
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extractCriticalNewsSignals,
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buildImpactExpansionCandidateHash,
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buildImpactPathsForCandidate,
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buildImpactExpansionBundleFromPaths,
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computeDeepReportableQualityScore,
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computeDeepMarketCoherenceScore,
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computeDeepPathAcceptanceScore,
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selectDeepForecastCandidates,
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validateImpactHypotheses,
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evaluateDeepForecastPaths,
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} from '../scripts/seed-forecasts.mjs';
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import {
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@@ -2238,6 +2245,59 @@ describe('forecast run world state', () => {
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assert.equal(worldState.report.interactionWatchlist.length, 0);
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});
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it('keeps only the strongest reportable interaction per source target and channel in strict mode', () => {
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const simulations = [
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{
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situationId: 'sit-a',
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label: 'Hormuz maritime disruption state',
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dominantDomain: 'supply_chain',
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regions: ['Strait of Hormuz'],
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actorIds: ['shared-actor'],
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marketContext: { linkedBucketIds: ['freight', 'energy'], confirmationScore: 0.66 },
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},
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{
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situationId: 'sit-b',
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label: 'Persian Gulf market repricing state',
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dominantDomain: 'market',
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regions: ['Persian Gulf'],
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actorIds: ['shared-actor'],
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marketContext: { linkedBucketIds: ['energy'], confirmationScore: 0.69 },
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},
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];
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const ledger = buildReportableInteractionLedger([
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{
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sourceSituationId: 'sit-a',
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targetSituationId: 'sit-b',
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sourceLabel: 'Hormuz maritime disruption state',
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targetLabel: 'Persian Gulf market repricing state',
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strongestChannel: 'market_repricing',
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interactionType: 'regional_spillover',
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confidence: 0.8,
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score: 6.1,
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actorSpecificity: 0.9,
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sharedActor: true,
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regionLink: false,
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},
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{
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sourceSituationId: 'sit-a',
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targetSituationId: 'sit-b',
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sourceLabel: 'Hormuz maritime disruption state',
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targetLabel: 'Persian Gulf market repricing state',
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strongestChannel: 'market_repricing',
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interactionType: 'regional_spillover',
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confidence: 0.79,
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score: 5.9,
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actorSpecificity: 0.9,
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sharedActor: true,
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regionLink: false,
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},
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], simulations, { strictMode: true });
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assert.equal(ledger.length, 1);
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assert.equal(ledger[0].score, 6.1);
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});
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it('does not emit reportable effects when no interactions promote into the reportable ledger', () => {
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const effects = buildCrossSituationEffects({
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situationSimulations: [
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@@ -3556,6 +3616,289 @@ describe('impact expansion layer', () => {
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assert.equal(secondOrder.validationStatus, 'rejected');
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});
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it('only builds expanded paths from chains that include a second-order hypothesis', () => {
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const directOnlyBundle = makeImpactExpansionBundle();
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directOnlyBundle.extractedCandidates = [{
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candidateIndex: 0,
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candidateStateId: directOnlyBundle.candidatePackets[0].candidateStateId,
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directHypotheses: [
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{
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variableKey: 'route_disruption',
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channel: 'shipping_cost_shock',
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targetBucket: 'freight',
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region: 'Middle East',
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macroRegion: 'EMEA',
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countries: ['Qatar'],
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assetsOrSectors: ['Shipping'],
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commodity: 'lng',
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dependsOnKey: '',
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strength: 0.95,
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confidence: 0.92,
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analogTag: 'energy_corridor_blockage',
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summary: 'Direct route disruption persists.',
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evidenceRefs: ['E1', 'E2'],
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},
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],
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secondOrderHypotheses: [],
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thirdOrderHypotheses: [],
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}];
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directOnlyBundle.extractedHypothesisCount = 1;
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const directOnlyValidation = validateImpactHypotheses(directOnlyBundle);
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const directOnlyPaths = buildImpactPathsForCandidate(directOnlyBundle.candidatePackets[0], directOnlyValidation);
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assert.equal(directOnlyPaths.length, 1);
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assert.equal(directOnlyPaths[0].type, 'base');
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const chainedValidation = validateImpactHypotheses(makeImpactExpansionBundle());
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const chainedPaths = buildImpactPathsForCandidate(makeImpactExpansionBundle().candidatePackets[0], chainedValidation);
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assert.ok(chainedPaths.some((path) => path.type === 'expanded'));
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assert.ok(chainedPaths.every((path) => path.type === 'base' || path.second));
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});
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it('selects only high-salience deep candidates from the ranked impact-expansion packets', () => {
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const eligible = makeImpactCandidatePacket('state-eligible', 'Strait of Hormuz maritime disruption state', {
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rankingScore: 0.71,
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marketContext: {
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...makeImpactCandidatePacket().marketContext,
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criticalSignalLift: 0.22,
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topBucketPressure: 0.61,
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},
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});
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const ineligible = makeImpactCandidatePacket('state-ineligible', 'Low-salience market repricing state', {
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rankingScore: 0.59,
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routeFacilityKey: '',
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commodityKey: '',
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marketContext: {
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...makeImpactCandidatePacket().marketContext,
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criticalSignalLift: 0.12,
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topBucketPressure: 0.44,
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transmissionEdgeCount: 1,
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},
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});
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const selected = selectDeepForecastCandidates([eligible, ineligible]);
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assert.equal(selected.length, 1);
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assert.equal(selected[0].candidateStateId, 'state-eligible');
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});
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it('preserves deep forecast metadata when trace artifacts are rebuilt from a deep world-state override', () => {
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const prediction = makePrediction('market', 'Strait of Hormuz', 'Oil price impact from Strait of Hormuz disruption', 0.66, 0.58, '14d', [
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{ type: 'energy_supply_shock', value: 'Transit stress is building across the Strait of Hormuz.', weight: 0.4 },
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]);
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buildForecastCase(prediction);
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populateFallbackNarratives([prediction]);
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const baseState = buildForecastRunWorldState({
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generatedAt: Date.parse('2026-03-23T12:00:00Z'),
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predictions: [prediction],
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});
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const bundle = makeImpactExpansionBundle(baseState.stateUnits[0].id, baseState.stateUnits[0].label);
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const validation = validateImpactHypotheses(bundle);
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const paths = buildImpactPathsForCandidate(bundle.candidatePackets[0], validation).filter((path) => path.type === 'expanded');
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const deepBundle = buildImpactExpansionBundleFromPaths(paths.slice(0, 1), bundle.candidatePackets);
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const deepWorldState = buildForecastRunWorldState({
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generatedAt: Date.parse('2026-03-23T12:00:00Z'),
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predictions: [prediction],
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inputs: { impactExpansionBundle: deepBundle },
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forecastDepth: 'deep',
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deepForecast: {
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status: 'completed',
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selectedStateIds: [bundle.candidatePackets[0].candidateStateId],
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selectedPathCount: 1,
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},
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});
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const artifacts = buildForecastTraceArtifacts({
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generatedAt: Date.parse('2026-03-23T12:00:00Z'),
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predictions: [prediction],
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fullRunPredictions: [prediction],
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forecastDepth: 'deep',
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deepForecast: {
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status: 'completed',
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selectedStateIds: [bundle.candidatePackets[0].candidateStateId],
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selectedPathCount: 1,
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},
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worldStateOverride: deepWorldState,
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candidateWorldStateOverride: deepWorldState,
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}, { runId: 'deep-run-1' });
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assert.equal(artifacts.summary.forecastDepth, 'deep');
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assert.equal(artifacts.summary.deepForecast.status, 'completed');
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assert.equal(artifacts.summary.worldStateSummary.forecastDepth, 'deep');
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assert.equal(artifacts.summary.worldStateSummary.deepForecastStatus, 'completed');
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});
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it('computes deep reportable quality score from candidate-touching interactions and effects', () => {
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const candidateStateId = 'state-1';
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const reportableLedger = [
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{ sourceSituationId: candidateStateId, targetSituationId: 'state-2', confidence: 0.78, score: 5.6 },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-3', targetSituationId: candidateStateId, confidence: 0.82, score: 5.9 },
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];
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reportableLedger.blocked = [
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{ sourceSituationId: candidateStateId, targetSituationId: 'state-4', confidence: 0.59, score: 4.8 },
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];
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const pathWorldState = {
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simulationState: {
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interactionLedger: [
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{ sourceSituationId: candidateStateId, targetSituationId: 'state-2' },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-3', targetSituationId: candidateStateId },
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{ sourceSituationId: candidateStateId, targetSituationId: 'state-5' },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-6', targetSituationId: candidateStateId },
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],
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reportableInteractionLedger: reportableLedger,
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},
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report: {
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crossSituationEffects: [
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{ sourceSituationId: candidateStateId, targetSituationId: 'state-2', channel: 'shipping_cost_shock' },
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],
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},
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};
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const score = computeDeepReportableQualityScore(pathWorldState, candidateStateId);
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assert.equal(score, 0.651);
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});
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it('computes deep market coherence score from mapped hypotheses and admissibility', () => {
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const candidatePacket = makeImpactCandidatePacket('state-1', 'Strait of Hormuz maritime disruption state');
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const path = {
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direct: {
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validationScore: 0.9,
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targetBucket: 'freight',
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channel: 'shipping_cost_shock',
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},
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second: {
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validationScore: 0.8,
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targetBucket: 'energy',
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channel: 'gas_supply_stress',
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},
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third: null,
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};
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const pathWorldState = {
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simulationState: {
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marketConsequences: {
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items: [
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{ situationId: 'state-1', bucketId: 'freight', channel: 'shipping_cost_shock' },
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{ situationId: 'state-1', bucketId: 'energy', channel: 'gas_supply_stress' },
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],
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blocked: [
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{ situationId: 'state-1', bucketId: 'rates_inflation', channel: 'inflation_impulse', reason: 'inadmissible_bucket_channel' },
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],
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},
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},
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};
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const score = computeDeepMarketCoherenceScore(pathWorldState, candidatePacket, path);
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assert.equal(score, 0.823);
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});
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it('computes deep path acceptance score from path quality, market coherence, and contradiction', () => {
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const candidatePacket = makeImpactCandidatePacket('state-1', 'Strait of Hormuz maritime disruption state', {
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marketContext: {
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...makeImpactCandidatePacket().marketContext,
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contradictionScore: 0.08,
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},
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});
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const path = {
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pathScore: 0.71,
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direct: {
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validationScore: 0.9,
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targetBucket: 'freight',
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channel: 'shipping_cost_shock',
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},
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second: {
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validationScore: 0.8,
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targetBucket: 'energy',
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channel: 'gas_supply_stress',
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},
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third: null,
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};
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const reportableLedger = [
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-1', targetSituationId: 'state-2', confidence: 0.78, score: 5.6 },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-3', targetSituationId: 'state-1', confidence: 0.82, score: 5.9 },
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];
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reportableLedger.blocked = [
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-1', targetSituationId: 'state-4', confidence: 0.59, score: 4.8 },
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];
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const pathWorldState = {
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simulationState: {
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interactionLedger: [
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-1', targetSituationId: 'state-2' },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-3', targetSituationId: 'state-1' },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-1', targetSituationId: 'state-5' },
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-6', targetSituationId: 'state-1' },
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],
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reportableInteractionLedger: reportableLedger,
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marketConsequences: {
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items: [
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{ situationId: 'state-1', bucketId: 'freight', channel: 'shipping_cost_shock' },
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{ situationId: 'state-1', bucketId: 'energy', channel: 'gas_supply_stress' },
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],
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blocked: [
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{ situationId: 'state-1', bucketId: 'rates_inflation', channel: 'inflation_impulse', reason: 'inadmissible_bucket_channel' },
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],
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},
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},
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report: {
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crossSituationEffects: [
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{ sourceSituationId: 'state-1', targetSituationId: 'state-2', channel: 'shipping_cost_shock' },
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],
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},
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};
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const scoring = computeDeepPathAcceptanceScore(candidatePacket, path, pathWorldState);
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assert.equal(scoring.reportableQualityScore, 0.651);
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assert.equal(scoring.marketCoherenceScore, 0.823);
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assert.equal(scoring.contradictionPenalty, 0.08);
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assert.equal(scoring.acceptanceScore, 0.636);
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});
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it('keeps the base path when deep path evaluation cannot clear the acceptance floor', async () => {
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const prediction = makePrediction('supply_chain', 'Red Sea', 'Shipping disruption: Strait of Hormuz', 0.68, 0.6, '7d', [
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{ type: 'shipping_cost_shock', value: 'Shipping costs are rising around Strait of Hormuz rerouting.', weight: 0.5 },
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{ type: 'energy_supply_shock', value: 'Energy transit pressure is building around Qatar LNG flows.', weight: 0.32 },
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]);
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prediction.newsContext = ['Tanker rerouting is amplifying LNG and freight pressure around the Gulf.'];
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buildForecastCase(prediction);
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populateFallbackNarratives([prediction]);
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const baseState = buildForecastRunWorldState({
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generatedAt: Date.parse('2026-03-23T12:00:00Z'),
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predictions: [prediction],
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});
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const stateUnit = baseState.stateUnits[0];
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const bundle = makeImpactExpansionBundle(stateUnit.id, stateUnit.label, {
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dominantRegion: stateUnit.dominantRegion || stateUnit.regions?.[0] || 'Red Sea',
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macroRegions: stateUnit.macroRegions || ['EMEA'],
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countries: stateUnit.regions || ['Red Sea'],
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marketBucketIds: stateUnit.marketBucketIds || ['energy', 'freight', 'rates_inflation'],
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transmissionChannels: stateUnit.transmissionChannels || ['shipping_cost_shock', 'gas_supply_stress'],
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topSignalTypes: stateUnit.signalTypes || ['shipping_cost_shock'],
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});
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const evaluation = await evaluateDeepForecastPaths({
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generatedAt: Date.parse('2026-03-23T12:00:00Z'),
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predictions: [prediction],
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fullRunPredictions: [prediction],
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fullRunSituationClusters: baseState.situationClusters,
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fullRunSituationFamilies: baseState.situationFamilies,
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fullRunStateUnits: baseState.stateUnits,
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inputs: {},
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}, null, bundle.candidatePackets, bundle);
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assert.equal(evaluation.status, 'completed_no_material_change');
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assert.equal(evaluation.selectedPaths.length, 1);
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assert.equal(evaluation.selectedPaths[0].type, 'base');
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assert.equal(evaluation.rejectedPaths.length, 1);
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assert.equal(evaluation.rejectedPaths[0].type, 'expanded');
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assert.ok(evaluation.rejectedPaths[0].acceptanceScore < 0.6);
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assert.equal(evaluation.deepWorldState, null);
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});
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it('threads mapped expansion signals into simulation rounds without mutating observed world signals', () => {
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const prediction = makePrediction('supply_chain', 'Red Sea', 'Shipping disruption: Strait of Hormuz', 0.68, 0.6, '7d', [
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{ type: 'shipping_cost_shock', value: 'Shipping costs are rising around Strait of Hormuz rerouting.', weight: 0.5 },
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