diff --git a/src/services/polymarket.ts b/src/services/polymarket.ts
index 9cc2e9cbd..f209c157c 100644
--- a/src/services/polymarket.ts
+++ b/src/services/polymarket.ts
@@ -4,164 +4,161 @@ import { SITE_VARIANT } from '@/config';
interface PolymarketMarket {
question: string;
- outcomes?: string[];
+ outcomes?: string;
outcomePrices?: string;
volume?: string;
volumeNum?: number;
closed?: boolean;
+ slug?: string;
+}
+
+interface PolymarketEvent {
+ id: string;
+ title: string;
+ slug: string;
+ volume?: number;
+ liquidity?: number;
+ markets?: PolymarketMarket[];
tags?: Array<{ slug: string }>;
+ closed?: boolean;
}
const breaker = createCircuitBreaker
({ name: 'Polymarket' });
-// Tech/AI/Startup keywords for tech variant
-const TECH_KEYWORDS = [
- // AI & ML
- 'ai', 'artificial intelligence', 'openai', 'chatgpt', 'gpt', 'claude', 'anthropic', 'google ai', 'gemini',
- 'machine learning', 'neural', 'llm', 'agi', 'deepmind', 'midjourney', 'stable diffusion', 'copilot',
- // Tech Companies
- 'apple', 'google', 'microsoft', 'amazon', 'meta', 'facebook', 'nvidia', 'tesla', 'spacex',
- 'twitter', 'x.com', 'tiktok', 'bytedance', 'alibaba', 'tencent', 'samsung', 'intel', 'amd', 'tsmc',
- // Startups & VC
- 'startup', 'ipo', 'unicorn', 'valuation', 'funding', 'series a', 'series b', 'y combinator', 'vc',
- 'venture capital', 'acquisition', 'merger', 'layoff', 'layoffs',
- // Tech Topics
- 'crypto', 'bitcoin', 'ethereum', 'blockchain', 'web3', 'nft',
- 'autonomous', 'self-driving', 'robotics', 'drone', 'ev', 'electric vehicle',
- 'quantum', 'chip', 'semiconductor', 'gpu', 'processor',
- 'cybersecurity', 'hack', 'breach', 'ransomware',
- 'social media', 'app store', 'cloud', 'saas', 'software',
- // Tech Regulation
- 'antitrust', 'ftc', 'eu commission', 'tech regulation', 'data privacy', 'gdpr',
- // Tech Leaders
- 'elon musk', 'sam altman', 'mark zuckerberg', 'sundar pichai', 'satya nadella', 'tim cook', 'jensen huang',
+const GEOPOLITICAL_TAGS = [
+ 'politics', 'geopolitics', 'elections', 'world',
+ 'ukraine', 'china', 'middle-east', 'europe',
+ 'economy', 'fed', 'inflation',
];
-// Geopolitical keywords for filtering relevant markets
-const GEOPOLITICAL_KEYWORDS = [
- // Conflicts & Military
- 'war', 'military', 'invasion', 'attack', 'strike', 'troops', 'nato', 'nuclear',
- 'missile', 'drone', 'ceasefire', 'peace', 'conflict', 'terrorist', 'hamas', 'hezbollah',
- // Countries & Leaders
- 'russia', 'ukraine', 'china', 'taiwan', 'iran', 'israel', 'gaza', 'palestine',
- 'north korea', 'syria', 'putin', 'zelensky', 'xi jinping', 'netanyahu', 'kim jong',
- // Politics & Elections
- 'president', 'election', 'elections', 'congress', 'senate', 'parliament', 'government', 'minister',
- 'trump', 'biden', 'administration', 'democrat', 'republican', 'vote', 'impeach',
- // Economics & Trade
- 'fed', 'interest rate', 'interest rates', 'inflation', 'recession', 'gdp', 'tariff', 'tariffs', 'sanction', 'sanctions',
- 'oil', 'opec', 'economy', 'trade war', 'currency', 'debt', 'default',
- // Global Issues
- 'climate', 'pandemic', 'who', 'un ', 'united nations', 'eu ', 'european union',
- 'summit', 'treaty', 'alliance', 'coup', 'protest', 'protests', 'uprising', 'refugee', 'refugees',
+const TECH_TAGS = [
+ 'ai', 'tech', 'crypto', 'science',
+ 'elon-musk', 'business', 'economy',
];
-// Sports/Entertainment to exclude
const EXCLUDE_KEYWORDS = [
'nba', 'nfl', 'mlb', 'nhl', 'fifa', 'world cup', 'super bowl', 'championship',
'playoffs', 'oscar', 'grammy', 'emmy', 'box office', 'movie', 'album', 'song',
- 'tiktok', 'youtube', 'streamer', 'influencer', 'celebrity', 'kardashian',
+ 'streamer', 'influencer', 'celebrity', 'kardashian',
'bachelor', 'reality tv', 'mvp', 'touchdown', 'home run', 'goal scorer',
- // Awards / film / music / TV
- 'academy award', 'academy awards', 'oscars', 'bafta', 'golden globe', 'cannes', 'sundance', 'tony',
- 'documentary', 'feature film', 'film', 'filmmaker', 'tv', 'series', 'season', 'episode',
- 'actor', 'actress', 'director', 'album', 'song', 'soundtrack',
+ 'academy award', 'bafta', 'golden globe', 'cannes', 'sundance',
+ 'documentary', 'feature film', 'tv series', 'season finale',
];
-// Tag slugs from Polymarket that clearly indicate non-geopolitical categories
-const EXCLUDE_TAGS = [
- 'entertainment', 'sports', 'culture', 'film', 'movie', 'music', 'awards', 'tv', 'celebrity'
-];
-
-function normalizeText(input: string): string {
- return input.toLowerCase().replace(/[^a-z0-9]+/g, ' ').trim();
+function isExcluded(title: string): boolean {
+ const lower = title.toLowerCase();
+ return EXCLUDE_KEYWORDS.some(kw => lower.includes(kw));
}
-function escapeRegExp(input: string): string {
- return input.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\]\\]/g, '\\$&');
+function parseMarketPrice(market: PolymarketMarket): number {
+ try {
+ const pricesStr = market.outcomePrices;
+ if (pricesStr) {
+ const prices: string[] = JSON.parse(pricesStr);
+ if (prices.length >= 1) {
+ const parsed = parseFloat(prices[0]!);
+ if (!isNaN(parsed)) return parsed * 100;
+ }
+ }
+ } catch { /* keep default */ }
+ return 50;
}
-function containsKeyword(normalized: string, keyword: string): boolean {
- const kw = normalizeText(keyword);
- if (!kw) return false;
- if (kw.includes(' ')) {
- const padded = ` ${normalized} `;
- const phrase = ` ${kw} `;
- return padded.includes(phrase);
- }
- const re = new RegExp(`\\b${escapeRegExp(kw)}(s|es)?\\b`, 'i');
- return re.test(normalized);
+function buildMarketUrl(eventSlug?: string, marketSlug?: string): string | undefined {
+ if (eventSlug) return `https://polymarket.com/event/${eventSlug}`;
+ if (marketSlug) return `https://polymarket.com/market/${marketSlug}`;
+ return undefined;
}
-function tagsAreExcluded(tags: Array<{ slug: string }> | undefined): boolean {
- if (!tags || tags.length === 0) return false;
- return tags.some(tag => {
- const tagNorm = normalizeText(tag.slug.replace(/-/g, ' '));
- return EXCLUDE_TAGS.some(ex => containsKeyword(tagNorm, ex) || tagNorm.includes(normalizeText(ex)));
- });
+async function fetchEventsByTag(tag: string, limit = 30): Promise {
+ const response = await fetch(
+ `/api/polymarket?endpoint=events&tag=${tag}&closed=false&order=volume&ascending=false&limit=${limit}`
+ );
+ if (!response.ok) return [];
+ return response.json();
}
-function isRelevant(title: string, tags?: Array<{ slug: string }>): boolean {
- const normalized = normalizeText(title);
- if (!normalized) return false;
+async function fetchTopMarkets(): Promise {
+ const response = await fetch('/api/polymarket?closed=false&order=volume&ascending=false&limit=100');
+ if (!response.ok) return [];
+ const data: PolymarketMarket[] = await response.json();
- if (tagsAreExcluded(tags)) return false;
-
- // Exclude sports/entertainment
- if (EXCLUDE_KEYWORDS.some(kw => containsKeyword(normalized, kw))) {
- return false;
- }
-
- // Use variant-specific keywords
- const keywords = SITE_VARIANT === 'tech' ? TECH_KEYWORDS : GEOPOLITICAL_KEYWORDS;
- return keywords.some(kw => containsKeyword(normalized, kw));
+ return data
+ .filter(m => m.question && !isExcluded(m.question))
+ .map(m => {
+ const yesPrice = parseMarketPrice(m);
+ const volume = m.volumeNum ?? (m.volume ? parseFloat(m.volume) : 0);
+ return {
+ title: m.question,
+ yesPrice,
+ volume,
+ url: buildMarketUrl(undefined, m.slug),
+ };
+ });
}
export async function fetchPredictions(): Promise {
return breaker.execute(async () => {
- const response = await fetch('/api/polymarket?closed=false&order=volume&ascending=false&limit=100');
- if (!response.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${response.status}`);
- const data: PolymarketMarket[] = await response.json();
+ const tags = SITE_VARIANT === 'tech' ? TECH_TAGS : GEOPOLITICAL_TAGS;
- const parsed = data
- .map((market) => {
- let yesPrice = 50;
- try {
- const pricesStr = market.outcomePrices;
- if (pricesStr) {
- const prices: string[] = JSON.parse(pricesStr);
- if (Array.isArray(prices) && prices.length >= 1 && prices[0]) {
- const parsed = parseFloat(prices[0]);
- if (!isNaN(parsed)) yesPrice = parsed * 100;
- }
- }
- } catch { /* Keep default */ }
+ const eventResults = await Promise.all(tags.map(tag => fetchEventsByTag(tag, 20)));
- const volume = market.volumeNum ?? (market.volume ? parseFloat(market.volume) : 0);
- return {
- title: market.question || '',
- yesPrice,
- volume,
- tags: market.tags || [],
- };
- });
+ const seen = new Set();
+ const markets: PredictionMarket[] = [];
- return parsed
- .filter((p) => {
- if (!p.title || isNaN(p.yesPrice)) return false;
+ for (const events of eventResults) {
+ for (const event of events) {
+ if (event.closed || seen.has(event.id)) continue;
+ seen.add(event.id);
- // Must be relevant to variant (tech or geopolitical)
- if (!isRelevant(p.title, p.tags)) return false;
+ if (isExcluded(event.title)) continue;
- // Must have meaningful signal (not 50/50) or high volume
- const discrepancy = Math.abs(p.yesPrice - 50);
- return discrepancy > 5 || (p.volume && p.volume > 50000);
+ const eventVolume = event.volume ?? 0;
+ if (eventVolume < 1000) continue;
+
+ if (event.markets && event.markets.length > 0) {
+ const topMarket = event.markets.reduce((best, m) => {
+ const vol = m.volumeNum ?? (m.volume ? parseFloat(m.volume) : 0);
+ const bestVol = best.volumeNum ?? (best.volume ? parseFloat(best.volume) : 0);
+ return vol > bestVol ? m : best;
+ });
+
+ const yesPrice = parseMarketPrice(topMarket);
+ markets.push({
+ title: topMarket.question || event.title,
+ yesPrice,
+ volume: eventVolume,
+ url: buildMarketUrl(event.slug),
+ });
+ } else {
+ markets.push({
+ title: event.title,
+ yesPrice: 50,
+ volume: eventVolume,
+ url: buildMarketUrl(event.slug),
+ });
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+ // Fallback: only fetch top markets if tag queries didn't yield enough
+ if (markets.length < 15) {
+ const fallbackMarkets = await fetchTopMarkets();
+ for (const m of fallbackMarkets) {
+ if (markets.length >= 20) break;
+ if (!markets.some(existing => existing.title === m.title)) {
+ markets.push(m);
+ }
+ }
+ }
+
+ // Sort by volume descending, then filter for meaningful signal
+ return markets
+ .filter(m => {
+ const discrepancy = Math.abs(m.yesPrice - 50);
+ return discrepancy > 5 || (m.volume && m.volume > 50000);
})
- .map((p) => ({
- title: p.title,
- yesPrice: p.yesPrice,
- volume: p.volume,
- }))
+ .sort((a, b) => (b.volume ?? 0) - (a.volume ?? 0))
.slice(0, 15);
}, []);
}
diff --git a/src/styles/main.css b/src/styles/main.css
index 7ff6439a3..53ba3ce53 100644
--- a/src/styles/main.css
+++ b/src/styles/main.css
@@ -3173,6 +3173,17 @@ body.playback-mode .status-dot {
line-height: 1.4;
}
+a.prediction-link {
+ text-decoration: none;
+ color: var(--text);
+ display: block;
+}
+
+a.prediction-link:hover {
+ color: var(--accent, #60a5fa);
+ text-decoration: underline;
+}
+
.prediction-volume {
font-size: 9px;
color: var(--muted);
diff --git a/src/types/index.ts b/src/types/index.ts
index c4952ffe3..e5749bd75 100644
--- a/src/types/index.ts
+++ b/src/types/index.ts
@@ -491,6 +491,7 @@ export interface PredictionMarket {
title: string;
yesPrice: number;
volume?: number;
+ url?: string;
}
export interface AppState {