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| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Elie Habib
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52659ce192 |
feat(resilience): PR 1 — energy construct repair (flag-gated) (#3289)
* docs(resilience): PR 1 foundation — Option B framing + v2 energy construct spec
First commit in PR 1 of the resilience repair plan. Zero scoring-behaviour
change; sets up the construct contract that the code changes will implement.
Declares the framing decision required by plan section 3.2 before any
scorer code lands: Option B (power-system security) is adopted. Electricity
grids are the dominant short-horizon shock-transmission channel, and the
choice lets the v2 energy indicator set share one denominator (percent of
electricity generation) instead of mixing primary-energy and power-system
measures in a composite.
Methodology doc changes:
- Energy Domain section now documents both the legacy indicator set
(still the default) and the v2 indicator set (flag-gated), under a
single #### Energy H4 heading so the methodology-doc linter still
asserts dimension-id parity with the registry.
- v2 indicators: importedFossilDependence (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS x
max(EG.IMP.CONS.ZS, 0)), lowCarbonGenerationShare (EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS +
EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), powerLossesPct (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), reserveMarginPct
(IEA), euGasStorageStress (renamed + scoped to EU), energyPriceStress
(retained at 0.15 weight).
- Retired under v2: electricityConsumption, gasShare, coalShare,
dependency (all into importedFossilDependence), renewShare.
- electricityAccess moves from energy to infrastructure under v2.
- Added a v2.1 changelog section documenting the flag-gated rollout,
acceptance gates (per plan section 6), and snapshot filenames for
the post-flag-flip captures.
- Known-limitations items 1-3 updated to note PR 1 lands the v2
construct behind RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED (default off).
Methodology-doc linter + mdx-lint + typecheck all clean. Indicator
registry, seeders, and scorer rewrite land in subsequent commits on
this same branch.
* feat(resilience): PR 1 — RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED flag + scoreEnergy v2 + registry entries
Second commit in PR 1 of the resilience repair plan. Lands the flag,
the v2 scorer code path, and the registry entries the methodology
doc referenced. Default is flag off; published rankings are unchanged
until the flag flips in a later commit (after seeders land and the
acceptance-gate rerun produces a fresh post-flip snapshot).
Changes:
- _shared.ts: isEnergyV2Enabled() function reader on the canonical
RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED env var. Dynamic read (like
isPillarCombineEnabled) so tests can flip per-case.
- _dimension-scorers.ts:
- New Redis key constants for the three v2 seed keys plus the
reserved reserveMargin key (seeder deferred per plan §3.1
open-question).
- EU_GAS_STORAGE_COUNTRIES set (EU + EFTA + UK) for the renamed
euGasStorageStress signal per plan §3.5 point 2.
- isEnergyV2EnabledLocal() — private duplicate of the flag reader
to avoid a circular import (_shared.ts already imports from
this module). Same env-var contract.
- scoreEnergy split into scoreEnergyLegacy() + scoreEnergyV2().
Public scoreEnergy() branches on the flag. Legacy path is
byte-identical to the pre-commit behaviour.
- scoreEnergyV2() reads four new bulk payloads, composes
importedFossilDependence = fossilElectricityShare × max(netImports, 0)/100
per plan §3.2, collapses net exporters to 0, and gates
euGasStorageStress on EU membership so non-EU countries
re-normalise rather than getting penalised for a regional
signal.
- _indicator-registry.ts: four new entries under `dimension: 'energy'`
with `tier: 'experimental'` — importedFossilDependence (0.35),
lowCarbonGenerationShare (0.20), powerLossesPct (0.10),
reserveMarginPct (0.10). Experimental tier keeps them out of the
Core coverage gate until seed coverage is confirmed.
- compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs: new
'bulk-v1-country-value' shape family in the extraction dispatcher.
EXTRACTION_RULES now covers the four v2 registry indicators so
the per-indicator influence harness tracks them from day one.
When the seeders are absent, pairedSampleSize = 0 and Pearson = 0
— the harness output surfaces the "no influence yet" state rather
than silently dropping the indicators.
- tests/resilience-energy-v2.test.mts: 11 new tests pinning:
- flag-off = legacy behaviour preserved (v2 seed keys have no
effect when flag is off — catches accidental cross-path reads)
- flag-on = v2 composite behaves correctly:
- lower fossilElectricityShare raises score
- net exporter with 90% fossil > net importer with 90% fossil
(max(·, 0) collapse verified)
- higher lowCarbonGenerationShare raises score (nuclear credit)
- higher powerLossesPct lowers score
- euGasStorageStress is invariant for non-EU, responds for DE
- all v2 inputs absent = graceful degradation, coverage < 1.0
106 resilience tests pass (existing + 11 new). Typecheck clean. Biome
clean. No production behaviour change with flag off (default).
Next commits on this branch: three World Bank seeders for the v2 keys,
health.js + SEED_META registration (gated ON_DEMAND_KEYS until Railway
cron provisions), acceptance-gate rerun at flag-flip time.
* feat(resilience): PR 1 — three WB seeders + health registration for v2 energy construct
Third commit in PR 1. Lands the seed scripts for the three v2 energy
indicator source keys, registered in api/health.js with ON_DEMAND_KEYS
gating until Railway cron provisions.
New seeders (weekly cron cadence, 8d maxStaleMin = 2x interval):
- scripts/seed-low-carbon-generation.mjs
Pulls EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS + EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS from World Bank, sums per
country into `resilience:low-carbon-generation:v1`. Partial
coverage (one series missing) still emits a value using the
observed half — the scorer's 0-80 saturating goalpost tolerates
it and the underlying construct is "firm low-carbon share".
- scripts/seed-fossil-electricity-share.mjs
Pulls EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS into `resilience:fossil-electricity-share:v1`.
Feeds the importedFossilDependence composite at score time
(composite = fossilShare × max(netImports, 0) / 100 per plan §3.2).
- scripts/seed-power-reliability.mjs
Pulls EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS into `resilience:power-losses:v1`. Direct
grid-integrity signal replacing the retired electricityConsumption
wealth proxy.
All three follow the existing seed-recovery-*.mjs template:
- Shape: { countries: { [ISO2]: { value, year } }, seededAt }
- runSeed() from _seed-utils.mjs with schemaVersion=1, ttl=35d
- validateFn floor of 150 countries (WB coverage is 150-180 for
the three indicators; below 150 = transient fetch failure)
- ISO3 → ISO2 mapping via scripts/shared/iso3-to-iso2.json
No reserveMargin seeder is shipped in this commit per plan §3.1 open
question: IEA electricity-balance coverage is sparse outside OECD+G20,
and the indicator will likely ship as 'unmonitored' with weight 0.05
if it lands at all. The Redis key (`resilience:reserve-margin:v1`) is
reserved in _dimension-scorers.ts so the v2 scorer shape is stable.
api/health.js:
- SEED_DOMAINS: add `lowCarbonGeneration`, `fossilElectricityShare`,
`powerLosses` → their Redis keys.
- SEED_META: same three, pointing at `seed-meta:resilience:*` meta
keys with maxStaleMin=11520 (8d, per the worldmonitor
health-maxstalemin-write-cadence pattern: 2x weekly cron).
- ON_DEMAND_KEYS: three new entries gated as TRANSITIONAL until
Railway cron provisions and the first clean run completes. Remove
from this set after ~7 days of green production runs.
Typecheck clean; existing 106 resilience tests pass (seeders have no
in-repo callers yet, so nothing depends on them executing). Real-API
integration tests land when Railway cron is provisioned.
Next commit: Railway cron configuration + bundle-runner wiring.
* feat(resilience): PR 1 — bundle-runner + acceptance-gate verdict + flag-flip runbook
Final commit in the PR 1 tranche. Lands the three remaining pieces so
the flag-flip is fully operable once Railway cron provisions.
- scripts/seed-bundle-resilience-energy-v2.mjs
Railway cron bundle wrapping the three v2 energy seeders
(low-carbon-generation, fossil-electricity-share, power-losses).
Weekly cadence (7-day intervalMs); the underlying data is annual
at source so polling more frequently just hammers the World Bank
API. 5-minute per-script timeout. Mirrors the existing
seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs pattern.
- scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs: acceptanceGates
block. Programmatic evaluation of plan §6 gates using the inputs
the harness already computes:
gate-1-spearman Spearman vs baseline >= 0.85
gate-2-country-drift Max country drift vs baseline <= 15
gate-6-cohort-median Cohort median shift vs baseline <= 10
gate-7-matched-pair Every pair holds expected direction
gate-9-effective-influence >= 80% Core indicators measurable
gate-universe-integrity No cohort/pair endpoint missing from scorable
Thresholds are encoded in a const so they can't silently soften.
Output verdict is PASS / CONDITIONAL / BLOCK. Emitted in
summary.acceptanceVerdict for at-a-glance PR comment pasting, with
full per-gate detail in acceptanceGates.results.
- docs/methodology/energy-v2-flag-flip-runbook.md
Operator runbook for the flag flip. Pre-flip checklist (seeders
green, health endpoint green, ON_DEMAND_KEYS graduation, Spearman
verification), flip procedure (pre-flip snapshot, dry-run, cache
prefix bump, Vercel env flip, post-flip snapshot, methodology
doc reclassification), rollback procedure, and a reference table
for the three possible verdict states.
PR 1 is now code-complete pending:
1. Railway cron provisioning (ops, not code)
2. Flag flip + acceptance-gate rerun (follows runbook, not code)
3. Reserve-margin seeder (deferred per plan §3.1 open-question)
Zero scoring-behaviour change in this commit. 121 resilience tests
pass, typecheck clean.
* fix(resilience): PR 1 — drop unseeded reserveMargin from scorer + fix composite extractor
Addresses two P1 review findings on PR #3289.
Finding 1: scoreEnergyV2 read resilience:reserve-margin:v1 at weight
0.10 but no seeder ships in this PR (indicator deferred per plan
§3.1 open-question). On flag flip that slot would be permanently
null, silently renormalizing the remaining 90% of weight and
producing a construct different from what the methodology doc
describes. Fix: remove reserve-margin from the v2 reader +
blend entirely. Redistribute its 0.10 weight to powerLossesPct
(now 0.20); both are grid-integrity signals per plan §3.1, and
the original plan split electricityConsumption's 0.30 weight
across powerLossesPct + reserveMarginPct + importedFossilDependence
— without reserveMarginPct, powerLossesPct carries the shared
grid-integrity load until the IEA seeder ships.
v2 weights now: 0.35 + 0.20 + 0.20 + 0.10 + 0.15 = 1.00
(importedFossilDependence + lowCarbonGenerationShare +
powerLossesPct + euGasStorageStress + energyPriceStress)
Reserve-margin Redis key constant stays reserved so the v2
scorer shape is stable when a future commit lands the seeder;
split 0.10 back out of powerLossesPct at that point.
Methodology doc, _shared.ts flag comment, and v2 test suite all
updated to the 5-indicator shape. New regression test asserts
that changing reserve-margin Redis content has zero effect on
the v2 score — guards against a future commit accidentally
wiring the reader back in without its seeder.
Finding 2: scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs
measured importedFossilDependence by reading fossilElectricityShare
alone. The scorer defines it as fossilShare × max(netImports, 0)
/ 100, so the extractor zeroed out net exporters and
under-reported net importers — making gate-9 effective-influence
wrong for the centrepiece construct change of PR 1.
Fix: new 'imported-fossil-dependence-composite' extractor type
in applyExtractionRule that recomputes the same composite from
both inputs (fossilShare bulk payload + staticRecord.iea.
energyImportDependency.value). Stays in lockstep with the
scorer — drift between the two would break gate-9's
interpretation.
New unit tests pin:
- net importer: 80% × max(60, 0) / 100 = 48 ✓
- net exporter: 80% × max(-40, 0) / 100 = 0 ✓
- missing either input → null
64 resilience tests pass; typecheck clean. Flag-off path is
still byte-identical to pre-PR behaviour.
* docs(resilience): PR 1 — align methodology doc with actual shipped indicators and seeders
Addresses P1 review on docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx
lines 29 and 574-575. The doc still described reserveMarginPct as a
shipped v2 indicator and listed seed-net-energy-imports.mjs in the
new-seeders list, neither of which the branch actually ships.
Doc changes to match the code in this branch:
Known-limitations item 1: restated to describe the actual v2
replacement footprint — powerLossesPct at 0.20 (temporarily
absorbing reserveMarginPct's 0.10) plus accessToElectricityPct
moved to infrastructure. reserveMarginPct is named as a deferred
companion with the split-out instructions for when its seeder
lands.
v2.1 changelog (Indicators added): split into "live in PR 1" and
"deferred in PR 1" so the reader can distinguish which entries
match real code. importedFossilDependence's composite formula
now written out and the net-imports source attributed to the
existing resilience:static.iea path (not a new seeder).
v2.1 changelog (New seeders): lists the three actual files that
ship in this branch (seed-low-carbon-generation, seed-fossil-
electricity-share, seed-power-reliability) and explicitly notes
seed-net-energy-imports.mjs is NOT a new seeder — the
EG.IMP.CONS.ZS series is already fetched by seed-resilience-
static.mjs. Adds the bundle-runner reference.
Methodology-doc linter + mdx-lint both pass (125/125). Typecheck
clean. Doc is now the source of truth for what PR 1 actually ships.
* fix(resilience): PR 1 — sync powerLossesPct registry weight with scorer (0.10 → 0.20)
Reviewer-caught mismatch between INDICATOR_REGISTRY and scoreEnergyV2.
The previous commit redistributed the deferred reserveMarginPct's 0.10
weight into powerLossesPct in the SCORER but left the REGISTRY entry
unchanged at 0.10. Two downstream effects:
1. scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs copies
`spec.weight` into `nominalWeight` for gate-9 reporting, so
powerLossesPct's nominal influence would be under-reported by
half in every post-flip acceptance run — exactly the harness PR 1
relies on for merge evidence.
2. Methodology doc vs registry vs scorer drift is the pattern the
methodology-doc linter is supposed to catch; it passes here
because the linter only checks dimension-id parity, not weights.
Registry is now the only remaining source of truth to keep in
lockstep with the scorer.
Change:
- `_indicator-registry.ts` powerLossesPct.weight: 0.1 → 0.2
- Inline comment names the deferral and instructs: "when the IEA
electricity-balance seeder lands, split 0.10 back out and restore
reserveMarginPct at 0.10. Keep this field in lockstep with
scoreEnergyV2 ... because the PR 0 compare harness copies
spec.weight into nominalWeight for gate-9 reporting."
Experimental weights per dimension invariant still holds (0.35 + 0.20
+ 0.20 = 0.75 for energy, well under the 1.0 ceiling). 64 resilience
tests pass, typecheck clean.
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Elie Habib
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da0f26a3cf |
feat(resilience): PR 0 diagnostic freeze + fairness-audit harness (no scoring changes) (#3284)
* feat(resilience): PR 0 diagnostic freeze + fairness-audit harness
Lands the before-state and measurement apparatus every subsequent
resilience-scorer PR validates against. Zero scoring changes. Per the
v3 plan at docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-scorer-structural-
bias-plan.md this is tranche 0 of five.
What lands:
- Construct contract published in the methodology doc: absolute
resilience not development-adjusted, mechanism test for every
indicator, peer-relative views published separately from the core.
- Known construct limitations section: six construct errors scheduled
for PR 1-3 repair with explicit mapping to plan tranches.
- Indicator-source manifest at docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml
with source, seriesId, seriesUrl, coveragePct, lastObservedYear,
license, mechanismTestRationale, and a constructStatus classification.
- Pre-repair ranking snapshot at
docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-live-pre-repair-2026-04-22.json
(217 items + 5 greyedOut, captured 2026-04-22 08:38 UTC at commit
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