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13 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Elie Habib
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a742537ae5 |
feat(supply-chain): Sprint D — GetSectorDependency RPC + vendor route-intelligence API + webhooks (#2905)
* feat(supply-chain): Sprint D — GetSectorDependency RPC + vendor route-intelligence API + webhooks * fix(supply-chain): move bypass-corridors + chokepoint-registry to server/_shared to fix api/ boundary violations * fix(supply-chain): webhooks — persist secret, fix sub-resource routing, add ownership check * fix(supply-chain): address PR #2905 review findings - Use SHA-256(apiKey) for ownerTag instead of last-12-chars (unambiguous ownership) - Implement GET /api/v2/shipping/webhooks list route via per-owner Redis Set index - Tighten SSRF: https-only, expanded metadata hostname blocklist, document DNS rebinding edge-runtime limitation - Fix get-sector-dependency.ts stale src/config/ imports → server/_shared/ (Greptile P1) * fix(supply-chain): getSectorDependency returns blank primaryChokepointId for landlocked countries computeExposures() previously mapped over all of CHOKEPOINT_REGISTRY even when nearestRouteIds was empty, producing a full array of score-0 entries in registry insertion order. The caller's exposures[0] then picked the first registry entry (Suez) as the "primary" chokepoint despite primaryChokepointExposure = 0. LI, AD, SM, BT and other landlocked countries were all silently assigned a fake chokepoint. Fix: guard at the top of computeExposures() -- return [] when input is empty so primaryChokepointId stays '' and primaryChokepointExposure stays 0. |
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Elie Habib
|
23ed4eba44 |
fix(supply-chain): address all code review findings from PR #2873 (#2878)
* fix(supply-chain): address all code review findings from PR #2873 - Rename costIncreasePct → supplyDeficitPct (semantic correction) - Add primaryChokepointWarRiskTier to GetBypassOptionsResponse - Consolidate ThreatLevel/threatLevelToWarRiskTier into _insurance-tier.ts - Replace inline CpEntry/ChokepointStatusCacheEntry with ChokepointInfo - Add outer cachedFetchJson wrapper (3 serial Redis reads → 1 on warm path) - Add hs2 validation guard matching sibling handler pattern - Extract CHOKEPOINT_STATUS_KEY constant; eliminate string literal duplication - Add SCORE_RISK_WEIGHT/SCORE_COST_WEIGHT named constants; clamp liveScore ≥ 0 - Add Math.max(0,...) to liveScore for sub-1.0 cost multiplier corridors - Fix closurePct: req.closurePct ?? 100 (was || which falsy-coalesced zero) - Type fetchBypassOptions cargoType as CargoType (was implicit string) - Add exhaustiveness check to threatLevelToInsurancePremiumBps switch - Move TIER_RANK to module level in _insurance-tier.ts - Update WIDGET_PRO_SYSTEM_PROMPT with both new PRO RPCs * fix(supply-chain): fix supplyDeficitPct averaging and coverageDays sentinel - Remove .filter(d > 0) from productDeficits: zero-deficit products have demand and must stay in the denominator to avoid overstating the average - Clamp coverageDays = Math.max(0, effectiveCoverDays): prevents -1 net-exporter sentinel from leaking into the public API response - Update proto comment: document 0 for net exporters - Add test assertions for both contracts * chore(api-docs): regenerate OpenAPI docs for coverage_days comment update * refactor(supply-chain): use CHOKEPOINT_STATUS_KEY in chokepoint-status writer The key was extracted to cache-keys.ts in the previous commit but the primary writer (getChokepointStatus) and BOOTSTRAP_CACHE_KEYS still embedded the raw string literal. Import the constant at both sites to complete the refactor. * test: update supply-chain-v2 assertions for CHOKEPOINT_STATUS_KEY refactor Handler now imports CHOKEPOINT_STATUS_KEY as REDIS_CACHE_KEY from cache-keys.ts rather than defining a local constant. BOOTSTRAP_CACHE_KEYS also references the constant. Update source-string assertions to match the new patterns. * fix: keep BOOTSTRAP_CACHE_KEYS.chokepoints as string literal bootstrap.test.mjs enforces string-literal values in BOOTSTRAP_CACHE_KEYS via regex. CHOKEPOINT_STATUS_KEY is used in handler imports and is the primary dedup win; the static registry entry stays as-is per test contract. |
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Elie Habib
|
bd07829518 |
feat(supply-chain): Sprint 2 — bypass corridor intelligence + cost shock engine (#2873)
* feat(supply-chain): Sprint 2 — bypass corridor intelligence + cost shock engine - src/config/bypass-corridors.ts: ~40 bypass corridors for all 13 chokepoints - server/supply-chain/v1/get-bypass-options.ts: PRO-gated RPC, live bypass scoring from chokepoint status cache - server/supply-chain/v1/get-country-cost-shock.ts: PRO-gated RPC, war risk premium BPS + energy coverage days (HS 27) - server/supply-chain/v1/_insurance-tier.ts: pure function, Lloyd's JWC threat → premium BPS - gateway.ts + premium-paths.ts: registered both RPCs as slow-browser + PRO-gated - src/services/supply-chain/index.ts: fetchBypassOptions + fetchCountryCostShock client methods - proto: GetBypassOptions + GetCountryCostShock messages + service registrations - tests/supply-chain-sprint2.test.mjs: 61 tests covering all new components Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (200K context) <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(cost-shock): call computeEnergyShockScenario directly instead of reading wrong cache key The old code read from `energy:shock:${iso2}:${chokepointId}:v1` which never matches the actual v2 cache key written by compute-energy-shock.ts. Fix by calling computeEnergyShockScenario() directly (it handles v2 caching internally) and mapping effectiveCoverDays + crude product deficitPct to the response fields. * fix(cost-shock): average refined product deficitPct instead of looking for non-existent 'crude' product --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (200K context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Elie Habib
|
6e401ad02f |
feat(supply-chain): Global Shipping Intelligence — Sprint 0 + Sprint 1 (#2870)
* feat(supply-chain): Sprint 0 — chokepoint registry, HS2 sectors, war_risk_tier
- src/config/chokepoint-registry.ts: single source of truth for all 13
canonical chokepoints with displayName, relayName, portwatchName,
corridorRiskName, baselineId, shockModelSupported, routeIds, lat/lon
- src/config/hs2-sectors.ts: static dictionary for all 99 HS2 chapters
with category, shockModelSupported (true only for HS27), cargoType
- server/worldmonitor/supply-chain/v1/_chokepoint-ids.ts: migrated to
derive CANONICAL_CHOKEPOINTS from chokepoint-registry; no data duplication
- src/config/geo.ts + src/types/index.ts: added chokepointId field to
StrategicWaterway interface and all 13 STRATEGIC_WATERWAYS entries
- src/components/MapPopup.ts: switched chokepoint matching from fragile
name.toLowerCase() to direct chokepointId === id comparison
- server/worldmonitor/intelligence/v1/_shock-compute.ts: migrated from old
IDs (hormuz/malacca/babelm) to canonical IDs (hormuz_strait/malacca_strait/
bab_el_mandeb); same for CHOKEPOINT_LNG_EXPOSURE
- proto/worldmonitor/supply_chain/v1/supply_chain_data.proto: added
WarRiskTier enum + war_risk_tier field (field 16) on ChokepointInfo
- get-chokepoint-status.ts: populates warRiskTier from ChokepointConfig.threatLevel
via new threatLevelToWarRiskTier() helper (FREE field, no PRO gate)
* feat(supply-chain): Sprint 1 — country chokepoint exposure index + sector ring
S1.1: scripts/shared/country-port-clusters.json
~130 country → {nearestRouteIds, coastSide} mappings derived from trade route
waypoints; covers all 6 seeded Comtrade reporters plus major trading nations.
S1.2: scripts/seed-hs2-chokepoint-exposure.mjs
Daily cron seeder. Pure computation — reads country-port-clusters.json,
scores each country against CHOKEPOINT_REGISTRY route overlap, writes
supply-chain:exposure:{iso2}:{hs2}:v1 keys + seed-meta (24h TTL).
S1.3: RPC get-country-chokepoint-index (PRO-gated, request-varying)
- proto: GetCountryChokepointIndexRequest/Response + ChokepointExposureEntry
- handler: isCallerPremium gate; cachedFetchJson 24h; on-demand for any iso2
- cache-keys.ts: CHOKEPOINT_EXPOSURE_KEY(iso2, hs2) constant
- health.js: chokepointExposure SEED_META entry (48h threshold)
- gateway.ts: slow-browser cache tier
- service client: fetchCountryChokepointIndex() exported
S1.4: Chokepoint popup HS2 sector ring chart (PRO-gated)
Static trade-sector breakdown (IEA/UNCTAD estimates) per 9 major chokepoints.
SVG donut ring + legend shown for PRO users; blurred lockout + gate-hit
analytics for free users. Wired into renderWaterwayPopup().
🤖 Generated with Claude Sonnet 4.6 via Claude Code (https://claude.com/claude-code) + Compound Engineering v2.49.0
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (200K context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
* fix(tests): update energy-shock-v2 tests to use canonical chokepoint IDs
CHOKEPOINT_EXPOSURE and CHOKEPOINT_LNG_EXPOSURE keys were migrated from
short IDs (hormuz, malacca, babelm) to canonical registry IDs
(hormuz_strait, malacca_strait, bab_el_mandeb) in Sprint 0.
Test fixtures were not updated at the time; fix them now.
* fix(tests): update energy-shock-seed chokepoint ID to canonical form
VALID_CHOKEPOINTS changed to canonical IDs in Sprint 0; the seed test
that checks valid IDs was not updated alongside it.
* fix(cache-keys): reword JSDoc comment to avoid confusing bootstrap test regex
The comment "NOT in BOOTSTRAP_CACHE_KEYS" caused the bootstrap.test.mjs
regex to match the comment rather than the actual export declaration,
resulting in 0 entries found. Rephrase to "excluded from bootstrap".
* fix(supply-chain): address P1 review findings for chokepoint exposure index
- Add get-country-chokepoint-index to PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS (CDN bypass)
- Validate iso2/hs2 params before Redis key construction (cache injection)
- Fix seeder TTL to 172800s (2× interval) and extend TTL on skipped lock
- Fix CHOKEPOINT_EXPOSURE_SEED_META_KEY to match seeder write key
- Render placeholder sectors behind blur gate (DOM data leakage)
- Document get-country-chokepoint-index in widget agent system prompts
* fix(lint): resolve Biome CI failures
- Add biome.json overrides to silence noVar in HTML inline scripts,
disable linting for public/ vendor/build artifacts and pro-test/
- Remove duplicate NG and MW keys from country-port-clusters.json
- Use import attributes (with) instead of deprecated assert syntax
* fix(build): drop JSON import attribute — esbuild rejects `with` syntax
---------
Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (200K context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Elie Habib
|
a09f49ff9c |
feat(supply-chain): energy flow estimates per chokepoint (mb/d card row) (#2780)
* feat(supply-chain): energy flow estimates per chokepoint (mb/d card row) - Add FlowEstimate proto message + ChokepointInfo field 15; regenerate stubs - Add baselineId mapping to _chokepoint-ids.ts (7 of 13 chokepoints) - Add relayId to seed-chokepoint-baselines.mjs CHOKEPOINTS entries - New seed-chokepoint-flows.mjs: reads portwatch + baselines, computes 7d tanker avg vs 90d baseline, outputs flow_ratio and current_mbd; prefers DWT (capTanker) when available; flags disruption if last 3 days each below 0.85 threshold; writes energy:chokepoint-flows:v1 (TTL 3d) - get-chokepoint-status.ts: parallel-reads flows key, attaches flowEstimate - SupplyChainPanel: compact card gains mb/d row (red <85%, amber <95%) - 19 new unit tests for flow computation and seeder contract * fix(chokepoint-flows): base useDwt on 90d baseline window, not recent 7 days Zero recent capTanker is the disruption signal, not a reason to fall back to vessel counts. Switching metrics during peak disruption caused the seeder to report a higher (less accurate) flow estimate exactly when oil-flow collapse is most acute. useDwt is now locked to whether the baseline window has DWT data -- stable across disruption events. Adds regression test covering DWT-collapse scenario. * fix(chokepoint-flows): require majority DWT coverage in baseline before activating DWT mode capBaselineSum > 0 would activate DWT on a single non-zero day during partial data roll-out, pulling down the baseline average via zero-filled gaps. Now requires >= ceil(prev90.length / 2) days with DWT data. ArcGIS data is all-or-nothing per chokepoint in practice, so this guard catches edge cases without affecting normal operation. |
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Elie Habib
|
190095ca89 |
feat(supply-chain): stacked vessel-type transit chart with 7d MA, DWT tab, zoom (#2777)
* feat(supply-chain): stacked vessel-type transit chart with 7d MA, DWT tab, zoom - Update TransitDayCount proto (fields 6-14): container, dry_bulk, general_cargo, roro, cap_* DWT capacity fields; regenerate TS types - Rewrite transit-chart.ts: 5-type stacked bar (container/dryBulk/ generalCargo/roro/tanker), 7d MA dashed overlay, Transit Calls / Trade Volume tab toggle, 1m/3m/6m zoom buttons, richer tooltip - SupplyChainPanel: enlarge chart placeholder min-height 120->200px * fix(transit-chart): stop control clicks bubbling + track source div in destroy - stopPropagation on controls container prevents tab/zoom button clicks from collapsing the chokepoint card - source div now tracked as this.source and cleaned up in destroy(), preventing duplicate attribution lines on repeated remounts * fix(transit-chart): import from generated client, reuse data in onMouseMove - Import TransitDayCount from generated client stub instead of server layer; keeps src/ imports within src/ - onMouseMove: reuse already-bound data array for MA computation instead of calling visibleData() again on every mouse event |
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Elie Habib
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1f56afeb82 |
feat(panels): disease outbreaks panel/layer, social velocity panel, shipping stress tab (#2383)
* feat(panels): disease outbreaks panel/layer, social velocity panel, shipping stress tab - DiseaseOutbreaksPanel: feed-style panel with alert/warning/watch filter pills, source links, relative timestamps (WHO/ProMED/HealthMap) - SocialVelocityPanel: ranked Reddit trending posts by velocity score with subreddit badge, vote/comment counts, velocity bar - SupplyChainPanel: Stress tab with composite stress gauge and carrier table with sparklines (GetShippingStressResponse) - diseaseOutbreaks map layer: ScatterplotLayer via country centroids, color/radius by alert level, tooltip - MapContainer.setDiseaseOutbreaks(): cached setter with DeckGLMap delegation - data-loader: loadDiseaseOutbreaks/loadSocialVelocity/loadSupplyChain with stress wired into tasks - MapLayers.diseaseOutbreaks added to types, layer registry (globe icon), full variant order, all default objects 🤖 Generated with Claude Sonnet 4.6 via Claude Code (https://claude.com/claude-code) + Compound Engineering v2.49.0 Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix(supply-chain): add upstreamUnavailable to ShippingStressResponse, restore test-compatible banner guard * fix(panels): filter pills use alertLevel equality, sanitizeUrl on hrefs, globe TODO, E2E layer enabled --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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Elie Habib
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1e1f377078 |
feat(panels): Disease Outbreaks, Shipping Stress, Social Velocity, nuclear test site enrichment (#2375)
* feat(panels): Disease Outbreaks, Shipping Stress, Social Velocity, nuclear test site monitoring - Add HealthService proto with ListDiseaseOutbreaks RPC (WHO + ProMED RSS) - Add GetShippingStress RPC to SupplyChainService (Yahoo Finance carrier ETFs) - Add GetSocialVelocity RPC to IntelligenceService (Reddit r/worldnews + r/geopolitics) - Enrich earthquake seed with Haversine nuclear test-site proximity scoring - Add 5 nuclear test sites to NUCLEAR_FACILITIES (Punggye-ri, Lop Nur, Novaya Zemlya, Nevada NTS, Semipalatinsk) - Add shipping stress + social velocity seed loops to ais-relay.cjs - Add seed-disease-outbreaks.mjs Railway cron script - Wire all new RPCs: edge functions, handlers, gateway cache tiers, health.js STANDALONE_KEYS/SEED_META * fix(relay): apply gold standard retry/TTL-extend pattern to shipping-stress and social-velocity seeders * fix(review): address all PR #2375 review findings - health.js: shippingStress maxStaleMin 30→45 (3x interval), socialVelocity 20→30 (3x interval) - health.js: remove shippingStress/diseaseOutbreaks/socialVelocity from ON_DEMAND_KEYS (relay/cron seeds, not on-demand) - cache-keys.ts: add shippingStress, diseaseOutbreaks, socialVelocity to BOOTSTRAP_CACHE_KEYS - ais-relay.cjs: stressScore formula 50→40 (neutral market = moderate, not elevated) - ais-relay.cjs: fetchedAt Date.now() (consistent with other seeders) - ais-relay.cjs: deduplicate cross-subreddit article URLs in social velocity loop - seed-disease-outbreaks.mjs: WHO URL → specific DON RSS endpoint (not dead general news feed) - seed-disease-outbreaks.mjs: validate() requires outbreaks.length >= 1 (reject empty array) - seed-disease-outbreaks.mjs: stable id using hash(link) not array index - seed-disease-outbreaks.mjs: RSS regexes use [\s\S]*? for CDATA multiline content - seed-earthquakes.mjs: Lop Nur coordinates corrected (41.39,89.03 not 41.75,88.35) - seed-earthquakes.mjs: sourceVersion bumped to usgs-4.5-day-nuclear-v1 - earthquake.proto: fields 8-11 marked optional (distinguish not-enriched from enriched=false/0) - buf generate: regenerate seismology service stubs * revert(cache-keys): don't add new keys to bootstrap without frontend consumers * fix(panels): address all P1/P2/P3 review findings for PR #2375 - proto: add INT64_ENCODING_NUMBER annotation + sebuf import to get_shipping_stress.proto (run make generate) - bootstrap: register shippingStress (fast), socialVelocity (fast), diseaseOutbreaks (slow) in api/bootstrap.js + cache-keys.ts - relay: update WIDGET_SYSTEM_PROMPT with new bootstrap keys and live RPCs for health/supply-chain/intelligence - seeder: remove broken ProMED feed URL (promedmail.org/feed/ returns HTML 404); add 500K size guard to fetchRssItems; replace private COUNTRY_CODE_MAP with shared geo-extract.mjs; remove permanently-empty location field; bump sourceVersion to who-don-rss-v2 - handlers: remove dead .catch from all 3 new RPC handlers; fix stressLevel fallback to low; fix fetchedAt fallback to 0 - services: add fetchShippingStress, disease-outbreaks.ts, social-velocity.ts with getHydratedData consumers |
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Elie Habib
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f336418c17 |
feat(advisories): gold standard migration for security advisories (#1637)
* feat(advisories): gold standard migration for security advisories Move security advisories from client-side RSS fetching (24 feeds per page load) to Railway cron seed with Redis-read-only Vercel handler. - Add seed script fetching via relay RSS proxy with domain allowlist - Add ListSecurityAdvisories proto, handler, and RPC cache tier - Add bootstrap hydration key for instant page load - Rewrite client service: bootstrap -> RPC fallback, no browser RSS - Wire health.js, seed-health.js, and dataSize tracking * fix(advisories): empty RPC returns ok:true, use full country map P1 fixes from Codex review: - Return ok:true for empty-but-successful RPC responses so the panel clears to empty instead of stuck loading on cold environments - Replace 50-entry hardcoded country map with 251-entry shared config generated from the project GeoJSON + aliases, matching coverage of the old client-side nameToCountryCode matcher * fix(advisories): add Cote d'Ivoire and other missing country aliases Adds 14 missing aliases including "cote d ivoire" (US State Dept title format), common article-prefixed names (the Bahamas, the Gambia), and alternative official names (Czechia, Eswatini, Cabo Verde, Timor-Leste). * fix(proto): inject @ts-nocheck via Makefile generate target buf generate does not emit @ts-nocheck, but tsc strict mode rejects the generated code. Adding a post-generation sed step in the Makefile ensures both CI proto-freshness (make generate + diff) and CI typecheck (tsc --noEmit) pass consistently. |
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Elie Habib
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45f5e5a457 |
feat(forecast): AI Forecasts prediction module (#1579)
* feat(forecast): add AI Forecasts prediction module (Pro-tier)
MiroFish-inspired prediction engine that generates structured forecasts
across 6 domains (conflict, market, supply chain, political, military,
infrastructure) using existing WorldMonitor data streams.
- Proto definitions for ForecastService with GetForecasts RPC
- Dedicated seed script (seed-forecasts.mjs) with 6 domain detectors,
cross-domain cascade resolver, prediction market calibration, and
trend detection via prior snapshot comparison
- Premium-gated RPC handler (PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS enforcement)
- Lazy-loaded ForecastPanel with domain filters, probability bars,
trend arrows, signal evidence, and cascade links
- Health monitoring integration (seed-meta freshness tracking)
- Refresh scheduler with API key guard
* test(forecast): add 47 unit tests for forecast detectors and utilities
Covers forecastId, normalize, resolveCascades, calibrateWithMarkets,
computeTrends, and smoke tests for all 6 domain detectors. Exports
testable functions from seed script with direct-run guard.
* fix(forecast): domain mismatch 'infra' vs 'infrastructure', add panel category
- Seed script used 'infra' but ForecastPanel filtered on 'infrastructure',
causing Infra tab to show zero results
- Added 'forecast' to intelligence category in PANEL_CATEGORY_MAP
* fix(forecast): move CSS to one-time injection, improve type safety
- P2: Move style block from setContent to one-time document.head injection
to prevent CSS accumulation on repeated renders
- P3: Replace +toFixed(3) with Math.round for readability in seed script
- P3: Use Forecast type instead of any[] in RPC handler filter
* fix(forecast): handle sebuf proto data shapes from Redis
Detectors now normalize CII scores from server-side proto format
(combinedScore, TREND_DIRECTION_RISING, region) to uniform shape.
Outage severity handles proto enum format (SEVERITY_LEVEL_HIGH).
Added confidence floor of 0.3 for single-source predictions.
Verified against live Redis: 2 predictions generated (Iran infra
shutdown, IL political instability).
* feat(forecast): unlock AI Forecasts on web, lock desktop only (trial)
- Remove forecast RPC from PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS (web access is free)
- Panel locked on desktop only (same as oref-sirens/telegram-intel)
- Remove API key guards from data-loader and refresh scheduler
- Web users get full access during trial period
* chore: regenerate proto types with make generate
Re-ran make generate after rebasing on main. Plugin v0.7.0 dropped
@ts-nocheck from output, added it back to all 50 generated files.
Fixed 4 type errors from proto codegen changes:
- MarketSource enum -> string union type
- TemporalAnomalyProto -> TemporalAnomaly rename
- webcam lastUpdated number -> string
* fix(forecast): use chokepoints v4 key, include ciiContribution in unrest
- P1: Switch chokepoints input from stale v2 to active v4 Redis key,
matching bootstrap.js and cache-keys.ts
- P2: Add ciiContribution to unrest component fallback chain in
normalizeCiiEntry so political detector reads the correct sebuf field
* feat(forecast): Phase 2 LLM scenario enrichment + confidence model
MiroFish-inspired enhancements:
- LLM scenario narratives via Groq/OpenRouter (narrative-only, no numeric
adjustment). Evidence-grounded prompts with mandatory signal citation
and few-shot examples from MiroFish's SECTION_SYSTEM_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.
- Top-4 predictions batched into single LLM call for cost efficiency.
- News context from newsInsights attached to all predictions for LLM
prompt grounding (NOT in signals, cannot affect confidence).
- Deterministic confidence model: source diversity via SIGNAL_TO_SOURCE
mapping (deduplicates cii+cii_delta, theater+indicators) + calibration
agreement from prediction market drift. Floor 0.2, ceiling 1.0.
- Output validation: rejects scenarios without signal references.
- Truncated JSON repair for small model output.
- Structured JSON logging for LLM calls.
- Redis cache for LLM scenarios (1h TTL).
- 23 new tests (70 total), all passing.
- Live-tested: OpenRouter gemini-2.5-flash produces evidence-grounded
scenario narratives from real WorldMonitor data.
* feat(forecast): Phase 3 multi-perspective scenarios, projections, data-driven cascades
MiroFish-inspired enhancements:
- Multi-perspective LLM analysis: top-2 predictions get strategic,
regional, and contrarian viewpoints via combined LLM call
- Probability projections: domain-specific decay curves (h24/d7/d30)
anchored to timeHorizon so probability equals projections[timeHorizon]
- Data-driven cascade rules: moved from hardcoded array to JSON config
(scripts/data/cascade-rules.json) with schema validation, named
predicate evaluators, unknown key rejection, and fallback to defaults
- 4 new cascade paths: infrastructure->supply_chain, infrastructure->market
(both requiresSeverity:total), conflict->political, political->market
- Proto: added Perspectives and Projections messages to Forecast
- ForecastPanel: renders projections row and conditional perspectives toggle
- 89 tests (19 new), all passing
- Live-tested: OpenRouter produces perspectives from real data
* feat(forecast): Phase 4 data utilization + entity graph
Fixes data gaps that prevented 4 of 6 detectors from firing:
- Input normalizers: chokepoint v4 shape + GPS hexes-to-zones mapping
- Chokepoint warm-ping (production-only, requires WM_API_BASE_URL)
- Lowered CII conflict threshold from 70 to 60, gated on level=high|critical
4 new standalone detectors:
- UCDP conflict zones (10+ events per country)
- Cyber threat concentration (5+ threats per country)
- GPS jamming in maritime shipping zones (5 regions)
- Prediction markets as signals (60-90% probability markets)
Entity-relationship graph (file-based, 38 nodes):
- Countries, theaters, commodities, chokepoints, alliances
- Alias table resolves both ISO codes and display names
- Graph cascade discovery links predictions across entities
Result: 51 predictions (up from 1-2), spanning conflict, infrastructure,
and supply chain domains. 112 tests, all passing.
* fix(forecast): redis cache format, signal source mapping, type safety
Fresh-eyes audit fixes:
- BUG: redisSet used wrong Upstash API format (POST body with {value,ex}
instead of command array ['SET',key,value,'EX',ttl]). LLM cache writes
were silently failing, causing fresh LLM calls every run.
- BUG: prediction_market signal type missing from SIGNAL_TO_SOURCE,
inflating confidence for market-derived predictions.
- CLEANUP: Remove unnecessary (f as any) casts in ForecastPanel since
generated Forecast type already has projections/perspectives fields.
- CLEANUP: Bump health maxStaleMin from 60 to 90 to avoid false STALE
alerts when LLM calls add latency to seed runs.
* feat(forecast): headline-entity matching with news corroboration signals
Uses entity graph aliases to match headlines to predictions by
country/theater (excludes commodity/infrastructure nodes to prevent
false positives). Predictions with matching headlines get a
news_corroboration signal visible in the panel.
Also fixes buildUserPrompt to merge unique headlines from ALL
predictions in the LLM batch (was only reading preds[0].newsContext).
Live-tested: 13 of 51 predictions now have corroborating headlines
(Iran, Israel, Syria, Ukraine, etc). 116 tests, all passing.
* feat(forecast): add country-codes.json for headline-entity matching
56 countries with ISO codes, full names, and scoring keywords (extracted
from src/config/countries.ts + UCDP-relevant additions). Used by
attachNewsContext for richer headline matching via getSearchTermsForRegion
which combines country-codes + entity graph + keyword aliases.
14/57 predictions now have news corroboration (limited by headline
coverage, not matching quality: only 8 headlines currently available).
* feat(forecast): read 300 headlines from news digest instead of 8
Read news:digest:v1:full:en (300 headlines across 16 categories) instead
of just news:insights:v1 topStories (8 headlines). Fallback to topStories
if digest is unavailable.
Result: news corroboration jumped from 25% to 64% (38/59 predictions).
* fix(forecast): handle parenthetical country names in headline matching
Strip suffixes like '(Zaire)', '(Burma)', '(Soviet Union)' from UCDP
region names before matching against country-codes.json. Also use
includes() for reverse name lookup to catch partial matches.
Corroboration: 64% -> 69% (41/59). Remaining 18 unmatched are countries
with no current English-language news coverage.
* fix(forecast): cache validated LLM output, add digest test, log cache errors
Fresh-eyes audit fixes:
- Combined LLM cache now stores only validated items (was caching raw
unvalidated output, serving potentially invalid scenarios on cache hit)
- redisSet logs warnings on failure (was silently swallowing all errors)
- Added digest-based test for attachNewsContext (primary path was untested)
- Fixed test arity: attachNewsContext(preds, news, digest) with 3 params
* fix(forecast): remove dead confidenceFromSources, reduce warm-ping timeout
- P2: Remove confidenceFromSources (dead code, computeConfidence overwrites
all initial confidence values). Inline the formula in original detectors.
- P3: Reduce warm-ping timeout from 30s to 15s (non-critical step)
- P3: Add trial status comment on forecast panel config
* fix(forecast): resolve ISO codes to country names, fix market detector, safe pre-push
P1 fixes from code review:
- CII ISO codes (IL, IR) now resolved to full country names (Israel, Iran)
via country-codes.json. Prevents substring false positives (IL matching
Chile) in event correlation. Uses word-boundary regex for matching.
- Market detector CII-to-theater mapping now uses entity graph traversal
instead of broken theater-name substring matching. Iran correctly maps
to Middle East theater via graph links.
- Pre-push hook no longer runs destructive git checkout on proto freshness
failure. Reports mismatch and exits without modifying worktree.
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Elie Habib
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0383253a59 |
feat(supply-chain): chokepoint transit intelligence with 3 data sources (#1560)
* feat(supply-chain): replace S&P Global with 3 free maritime data sources Replace expensive S&P Global Maritime API with IMF PortWatch (vessel transit counts), CorridorRisk (risk intelligence), and AISStream chokepoint crossing counter. All external API calls run on Railway relay, Vercel reads Redis only. - Add 4 new chokepoints (10 total): Cape of Good Hope, Gibraltar, Bosphorus, Dardanelles - Add TransitSummary proto (field 14) with today counts, WoW%, 180d history, risk context - Add D3 multi-line chart (tanker vs cargo) with expandable chokepoint cards - Add crossing detection with enter+dwell+exit semantics, 30min cooldown, 5min min dwell - Add PortWatch seed loop (6h), CorridorRisk seed loop (1h), transit seed loop (10min) - Add canonical chokepoint ID map for cross-source name resolution - 177 tests passing across 6 test files * fix(supply-chain): address P2 review findings - Discard partial PortWatch pagination results on mid-page failure (prevents truncated history with wrong WoW numbers cached for 6h) - Rename "Transit today" to "24h" label (rolling 24h window, not calendar day) - Fix chart label from "30d" to "180d" (matches actual PortWatch query range) - Add 30s initial seed for chokepoint transits on relay cold start (prevents 10min gap of zero transit data) * feat(supply-chain): swap D3 chart for TradingView lightweight-charts Replace hand-rolled D3 SVG transit chart with lightweight-charts v5 canvas rendering for Bloomberg-quality time-series visualization. - Add TransitChart helper class with mount/destroy lifecycle, theme listener, and autoSize support - Use MutationObserver (not rAF) to mount chart after setContent debounce - Clean up chart on tab switch, collapse, and re-render (no orphaned canvases) - Respond to theme-changed events via chart.applyOptions() - D3 stays for other 5 components (ProgressCharts, RenewableEnergy, etc.) * feat(supply-chain): add geo coords and trade routes for 4 new chokepoints Cherry-pick from PR #1511: Cape of Good Hope, Gibraltar, Bosphorus, and Dardanelles map-layer coordinates and trade route definitions. * fix(supply-chain): health.js v2->v4 key + double cache TTLs for missed seeds - health.js chokepoints key was still v2, now v4 (matches handler + bootstrap) - PortWatch TTL: 21600s (6h) -> 43200s (12h), seed interval stays 6h - CorridorRisk TTL: 3600s (1h) -> 7200s (2h), seed interval stays 1h - Ensures one missed seed run doesn't expire the key and cause empty data |
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Elie Habib
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c2f17dec45 |
fix(supply-chain): resolve P1 threat zeroing and P2 geo-first misclassification (#964)
* enhance supply chain panel * fix(supply-chain): resolve P1 threat zeroing and P2 geo-first misclassification P1: threat baseline is now always applied regardless of config staleness — stale config only adds a review-recommended note, never zeros the score. P2: resolveChokepointId now checks text evidence first and only falls back to proximity when text has no confident match. Adds regression test: text "Bab el-Mandeb" with location near Suez correctly resolves to bab_el_mandeb. --------- Co-authored-by: fayez bast <fayezbast15@gmail.com> |
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Sebastien Melki
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6669d373cf |
feat: convert 52 API endpoints from POST to GET for edge caching (#468)
* feat: convert 52 API endpoints from POST to GET for edge caching Convert all cacheable sebuf RPC endpoints to HTTP GET with query/path parameters, enabling CDN edge caching to reduce costs. Flatten nested request types (TimeRange, PaginationRequest, BoundingBox) into scalar query params. Add path params for resource lookups (GetFredSeries, GetHumanitarianSummary, GetCountryStockIndex, GetCountryIntelBrief, GetAircraftDetails). Rewrite router with hybrid static/dynamic matching for path param support. Kept as POST: SummarizeArticle, ClassifyEvent, RecordBaselineSnapshot, GetAircraftDetailsBatch, RegisterInterest. Generated with sebuf v0.9.0 (protoc-gen-ts-client, protoc-gen-ts-server). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * fix: add rate_limited field to market response protos The rateLimited field was hand-patched into generated files on main but never declared in the proto definitions. Regenerating wiped it out, breaking the build. Now properly defined in both ListEtfFlowsResponse and ListMarketQuotesResponse protos. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> * chore: remove accidentally committed .planning files Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |