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worldmonitor/docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml
Elie Habib 7cf37c604c feat(resilience): PR 3 — dead-signal cleanup (plan §3.5, §3.6) (#3297) 
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 — retire fuelStockDays from core score permanently

First commit in PR 3 of the resilience repair plan. Retires
`fuelStockDays` from the core score with no replacement.

Why permanent, not replaced:
IEA emergency-stockholding rules are defined in days of NET IMPORTS
and do not bind net exporters by design. Norway/Canada/US measured
in days-of-imports are incomparable to Germany/Japan measured the
same way — the construct is fundamentally different across the two
country classes. No globally-comparable recovery-fuel signal can
be built from this source; the pre-repair probe showed 100% imputed
at 50 for every country in the April 2026 freeze.

  scoreFuelStockDays:
    - Rewritten to return coverage=0 + observedWeight=0 +
      imputationClass='source-failure' for every country regardless
      of seed content.
    - Drops the dimension from the `recovery` domain's coverage-
      weighted mean automatically; remaining recovery dimensions
      pick up the share via re-normalisation in
      `_shared.ts#coverageWeightedMean`.
    - No explicit weight transfer needed — the coverage-weighted
      blend handles redistribution.

  Registry:
    - recoveryFuelStockDays re-tagged from tier='enrichment' to
      tier='experimental' so the Core coverage gate treats it as
      out-of-score.
    - Description updated to make the retirement explicit; entry
      stays in the registry for structural continuity (the
      dimension `fuelStockDays` remains in RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER
      for the 19-dimension tests; removing the dimension entirely is
      a PR 4 structural-audit concern).

  Housekeeping:
    - Removed `RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY` constant (no
      longer read; noUnusedLocals would reject it).
    - Removed `RecoveryFuelStocksCountry` interface for the same
      reason. Comment at the removed declaration instructs future
      maintainers not to re-add the type as a reservation; when a
      new recovery-fuel concept lands, introduce a fresh interface.

Plan reference: §3.5 point 1 of
`docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-scorer-structural-bias-plan.md`.

51 resilience tests pass, typecheck + biome clean. The
`recovery` domain's published score will shift slightly for every
country because the 0.10 slot that fuelStockDays was imputing to
now redistributes; the compare-harness acceptance-gate rerun at
merge time will quantify the shift per plan §6 gates.

* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 — retire BIS-backed currencyExternal; rebuild on IMF inflation + WB reserves

BIS REER/DSR feeds were load-bearing in currencyExternal (weights 0.35
fxVolatility + 0.35 fxDeviation, ~70% of dimension). They cover ~60
countries max — so every non-BIS country fell through to
curated_list_absent (coverage 0.3) or a thin IMF proxy (coverage 0.45).
Combined with reserveMarginPct already removed in PR 1, currencyExternal
was the clearest "construct absent for most of the world" carrier left
in the scorer.

Changes:

_dimension-scorers.ts
- scoreCurrencyExternal now reads IMF macro (inflationPct) + WB FX
  reserves only. Coverage ladder:
    inflation + reserves → 0.85 (observed primary + secondary)
    inflation only       → 0.55
    reserves only        → 0.40
    neither              → 0.30 (IMPUTE.bisEer retained for snapshot
                                 continuity; semantics read as
                                 "no IMF + no WB reserves" now)
- Removed dead symbols: RESILIENCE_BIS_EXCHANGE_KEY constant (reserved
  via comment only, flagged by noUnusedLocals), stddev() helper,
  getCountryBisExchangeRates() loader, BisExchangeRate interface,
  dateToSortableNumber() — all were exclusive callers of the retired
  BIS path.

_indicator-registry.ts
- New core entry inflationStability (weight 0.60, tier=core,
  sourceKey=economic:imf:macro:v2).
- fxReservesAdequacy weight 0.15 → 0.40 (secondary reliability
  anchor).
- fxVolatility + fxDeviation demoted tier=enrichment → tier=experimental
  (BIS ~60-country coverage; off the core weight sum).
- Non-experimental weights now sum to 1.0 (0.60 + 0.40).

scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs
- EXTRACTION_RULES: added inflationStability →
  imf-macro-country-field field=inflationPct so the registry-parity
  test passes and the correlation harness sees the new construct.

tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts
- Dropped BIS-era wording ("non-BIS country") and test 266
  (BIS-outage coverage 0.35 branch) which collapsed to the inflation-
  only path post-retirement.
- Updated coverage assertions: inflation-only 0.45 → 0.55; inflation+
  reserves 0.55 → 0.85.

tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts
- domainAverages.economic 68.33 → 66.33 (US currencyExternal score
  shifts slightly under IMF+reserves vs old BIS composite).
- stressScore 67.85 → 67.21; stressFactor 0.3215 → 0.3279.
- overallScore 65.82 → 65.52.
- baselineScore unchanged (currencyExternal is stress-only).

All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean. No change to
seeders or Redis keys; this is a pure scorer + registry rebuild.

* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 point 3 — re-goalpost externalDebtCoverage (0..5 → 0..2)

Plan §2.1 diagnosis table showed externalDebtCoverage saturating at
score=100 across all 9 probe countries — including stressed states.
Signal was collapsed. Root cause: (worst=5, best=0) gave every country
with ratio < 0.5 a score above 90, and mapped Greenspan-Guidotti's
reserve-adequacy threshold (ratio=1.0) to score 80 — well into "no
worry" territory instead of the "mild warning" it should be.

Re-anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti directly: ratio=1.0 now maps to score
50 (mild warning), ratio=2.0 to score 0 (acute rollover-shock exposure).
Ratios above 2.0 clamp to 0, consistent with "beyond this point the
country is already in crisis; exact value stops mattering."

Files changed:

- _indicator-registry.ts: recoveryDebtToReserves goalposts
  {worst: 5, best: 0} → {worst: 2, best: 0}. Description updated to
  cite Greenspan-Guidotti; inline comment documents anchor + rationale.

- _dimension-scorers.ts: scoreExternalDebtCoverage normalizer bound
  changed from (0..5) to (0..2), with inline comment.

- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx: goalpost table row
  5-0 → 2-0, description cites Greenspan-Guidotti.

- docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml:
  * constructStatus: dead-signal → observed-mechanism (signal is now
    discriminating).
  * reviewNotes updated to describe the new anchor.
  * mechanismTestRationale names the Greenspan-Guidotti rule.

- tests/resilience-dimension-monotonicity.test.mts: updated the
  comment + picked values inside the (0..2) discriminating band (0.3
  and 1.5). Old values (1 vs 4) had 4 clamping to 0.

- tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts: NO score threshold
  relaxed >90 → >=85 (NO ratio=0.2 now scores 90, was 96).

- tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts: fixture drift:
  * domainAverages.recovery 54.83 → 47.33 (US extDebt 70 → 25).
  * baselineScore 63.63 → 60.12 (extDebt is baseline type).
  * overallScore 65.52 → 63.27.
  * stressScore / stressFactor unchanged (extDebt is baseline-only).

All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.

* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.6 — CI gate on indicator coverage and nominal weight

Plan §3.6 adds a new acceptance criterion (also §5 item 5):

> No indicator with observed coverage below 70% may exceed 5% nominal
> weight OR 5% effective influence in the post-change sensitivity run.

This commit enforces the NOMINAL-WEIGHT half as a unit test that runs
on every CI build. The EFFECTIVE-INFLUENCE half is produced by
scripts/validate-resilience-sensitivity.mjs as a committed artifact;
the gate file only asserts that script still exists so a refactor that
removes it breaks the build loudly.

Why the gate exists (plan §3.6):

  "A dimension at 30% observed coverage carries the same effective
   weight as one at 95%. This contradicts the OECD/JRC handbook on
   uncertainty analysis."

Implementation:

tests/resilience-coverage-influence-gate.test.mts — three tests:
  1. Nominal-weight gate: for every core indicator with coverage < 137
     countries (70% of the ~195-country universe), computes its nominal
     overall weight as
       indicator.weight × (1/dimensions-in-domain) × domain-weight
     and asserts it does not exceed 5%. Equal-share-per-dimension is
     the *upper bound* on runtime weight (coverage-weighted mean gives
     a lower share when a dimension drops out), so this is a strict
     bound: if the nominal number passes, the runtime number also
     passes for every country.
  2. Effective-influence contract: asserts the sensitivity script
     exists at its expected path. Removing it (intentionally or by
     refactor) breaks the build.
  3. Audit visibility: prints the top 10 core indicators by nominal
     overall weight. No assertion beyond "ran" — the list lets
     reviewers spot outliers that pass the gate but are near the cap.

Current state (observed from audit output):

  recoveryReserveMonths:   nominal=4.17%  coverage=188
  recoveryDebtToReserves:  nominal=4.17%  coverage=185
  recoveryImportHhi:       nominal=4.17%  coverage=190
  inflationStability:      nominal=3.40%  coverage=185
  electricityConsumption:  nominal=3.30%  coverage=217
  ucdpConflict:            nominal=3.09%  coverage=193

Every core indicator has coverage ≥ 180 (already enforced by the
pre-existing indicator-tiering test), so the nominal-weight gate has
no current violators — its purpose is catching future drift, not
flagging today's state.

All 6327 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.

* docs(resilience): PR 3 methodology doc — document §3.5 dead-signal retirements + §3.6 coverage gate

Methodology-doc update capturing the three §3.5 landings and the §3.6 CI
gate. Five edits:

1. **Known construct limitations section (#5 and #6):** strikethrough the
   original "dead signals" and "no coverage-based weight cap" items,
   annotate them with "Landed in PR 3 §3.5"/"Landed in PR 3 §3.6" +
   specifics of what shipped.

2. **Currency & External H4 section:** completely rewritten. Old table
   (fxVolatility / fxDeviation / fxReservesAdequacy on BIS primary) is
   replaced by the two-indicator post-PR-3 table (inflationStability at
   0.60 + fxReservesAdequacy at 0.40). Coverage ladder spelled out
   (0.85 / 0.55 / 0.40 / 0.30). Legacy BIS indicators named as
   experimental-tier drill-downs only.

3. **Fuel Stock Days H4 section:** H4 heading text kept verbatim so the
   methodology-lint H4-to-dimension mapping does not break; body
   rewritten to explain that the dimension is retired from core but the
   seeder still runs for IEA-member drill-downs.

4. **External Debt Coverage table row:** goalpost 5-0 → 2-0, description
   cites Greenspan-Guidotti reserve-adequacy rule.

5. **New v2.2 changelog entry** — PR 3 dead-signal cleanup, covering
   §3.5 points 1/2/3 + §3.6 + acceptance gates + construct-audit
   updates.

No scoring or code changes in this commit. Methodology-lint test passes
(H4 mapping intact). All 6327 data-tier tests pass.

* fix(resilience): PR 3 §3.6 gate — correct share-denominator for coverage-weighted aggregation

Reviewer catch (thanks). The previous gate computed each indicator's
nominal overall weight as

  indicator.weight × (1 / N_total_dimensions_in_domain) × domain_weight

and claimed this was an upper bound ("actual runtime weight is ≤ this
when some dimensions drop out on coverage"). That is BACKWARDS for
this scorer.

The domain aggregation is coverage-weighted
(server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts coverageWeightedMean),
so when a dimension pins at coverage=0 it is EXCLUDED from the
denominator and the surviving dimensions' shares go UP, not down.

PR 3 commit 1 retires fuelStockDays by hard-coding its scorer to
coverage=0 for every country — so in the current live state the
recovery domain has 5 contributing dimensions (not 6), and each core
recovery indicator's nominal share is

  1.0 × 1/5 × 0.25 = 5.00% (was mis-reported as 4.17%)

The old gate therefore under-estimated nominal influence and could
silently pass exactly the kind of low-coverage overweight regression
it is meant to block.

Fix:

- Added `coreBearingDimensions(domainId)` helper that counts only
  dimensions that have ≥1 core indicator in the registry. A dimension
  with only experimental/enrichment entries (post-retirement
  fuelStockDays) has no core contribution → does not dilute shares.
- Updated `nominalOverallWeight` to divide by the core-bearing count,
  not the raw dimension count.
- Rewrote the helper's doc comment to stop claiming this is a strict
  upper bound — explicitly calls out the dynamic case (source failure
  raising surviving dim shares further) as the sensitivity script's
  responsibility.
- Added a new regression test: asserts (a) at least one recovery
  dimension is all-non-core (fuelStockDays post-retirement),
  (b) fuelStockDays has zero core indicators, and (c) recoveryDebt
  ToReserves nominal = 0.05 exactly (not 0.0417) — any reversion
  of the retirement or regression to N_total-denominator will fail
  loudly.

Top-10 audit output now correctly shows:

  recoveryReserveMonths:   nominal=5%     coverage=188
  recoveryDebtToReserves:  nominal=5%     coverage=185
  recoveryImportHhi:       nominal=5%     coverage=190
  (was 4.17% each under the old math)

All 486 resilience tests pass. typecheck:api clean.

Note: the 5% figure is exactly AT the cap, not over it. "exceed" means
strictly > 5%, so it still passes. But now the reviewer / audit log
reflects reality.

* fix(resilience): PR 3 review — retired-dim confidence drag + false source-failure label

Addresses the Codex review P1 + P2 on PR #3297.

P1 — retired-dim drag on confidence averages
--------------------------------------------
scoreFuelStockDays returns coverage=0 by design (retired construct),
but computeLowConfidence, computeOverallCoverage, and the widget's
formatResilienceConfidence averaged across all 19 dimensions. That
dragged every country's reported averageCoverage down — US went from
0.8556 (active dims only) to 0.8105 (all dims) — enough drift to
misclassify edge countries as lowConfidence and to shift the ranking
widget's overallCoverage pill for every country.

Fix: introduce an authoritative RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS set in
_dimension-scorers.ts and filter it out of all three averages. The
filter is keyed on the retired-dim REGISTRY, not on coverage === 0,
because a non-retired dim can legitimately emit coverage=0 on a
genuinely sparse-data country via weightedBlend fall-through — those
entries MUST keep dragging confidence down (that is the sparse-data
signal lowConfidence exists to surface). Verified: sparse-country
release-gate test (marks sparse WHO/FAO countries as low confidence)
still passes with the registry-keyed filter; would have failed with
a naive coverage=0 filter.

Server-client parity: widget-utils cannot import server code, so
RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSION_IDS is a hand-mirrored constant, kept
in lockstep by tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts
(parses the widget file as text, same pattern as existing widget-util
tests that can't import the widget module directly).

P2 — false "Source down" label on retired dim
---------------------------------------------
scoreFuelStockDays hard-coded imputationClass: 'source-failure',
which the widget maps to "Source down: upstream seeder failed" with
a `!` icon for every country. That is semantically wrong for an
intentional retirement. Flipped to null so the widget's absent-path
renders a neutral cell without a false outage label. null is already
a legal value of ResilienceDimensionScore.imputationClass; no type
change needed.

Tests
-----
- tests/resilience-confidence-averaging.test.mts (new): pins the
  registry-keyed filter semantic for computeOverallCoverage +
  computeLowConfidence. Includes a negative-control test proving
  non-retired coverage=0 dims still flip lowConfidence.
- tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts (new):
  lockstep gate between server and client retired-dim lists.
- Widget test adds a registry-keyed exclusion test with a non-retired
  coverage=0 dim in the fixture to lock in the correct semantic.
- Existing tests asserting imputationClass: 'source-failure' for
  fuelStockDays flipped to null.

All 494 resilience tests + full 6336/6336 data-tier suite pass.
Typecheck clean for both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.

* docs(resilience): align methodology + registry metadata with shipped imputationClass=null

Follow-up to the previous PR 3 review commit that flipped
scoreFuelStockDays's imputationClass from 'source-failure' to null to
avoid a false "Source down" widget label on every country. The code
changed; the doc and registry metadata did not, leaving three sites
in the methodology mdx and two comment/description sites in the
registry still claiming imputationClass='source-failure'. Any future
reviewer (or tooling that treats the registry description as
authoritative) would be misled.

This commit rewrites those sites to describe the shipped behavior:
 - imputationClass=null (not 'source-failure'), with the rationale
 - exclusion from confidence/coverage averages via the
   RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS registry filter
 - the distinction between structural retirement (filtered) and
   runtime coverage=0 (kept so sparse-data countries still flag
   lowConfidence)

Touched:
 - docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx (lines ~33, ~268, ~590)
 - server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_indicator-registry.ts
   (recoveryFuelStockDays comment block + description field)

No code-behavior change. Docs-only.

Tests: 157 targeted resilience tests pass (incl. methodology-lint +
widget + release-gate + confidence-averaging). Typecheck clean on
both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
2026-04-22 23:57:28 +04:00

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# Resilience scorer indicator-source manifest (PR 0 scaffold, 2026-04-22).
#
# One entry per sub-indicator used inside a dimension scorer. Each entry
# answers the mechanism test from docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-
# scorer-structural-bias-plan.md §1.1: what direct shock channel does this
# measure?
#
# Fields:
# indicator — scorer variable name (matches the weighted-blend entry)
# dimension — parent dimension id (matches RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER)
# domain — parent domain id
# weight — current nominal weight inside the dimension blend
# direction — higher-better | lower-better | composite
# source — authority that publishes the series
# seriesId — canonical series id where applicable (e.g. EG.IMP.CONS.ZS)
# seriesUrl — direct link to source documentation
# coveragePct — observed-data coverage across the 222-country static index (first-pass estimate; authoritative value lives in the matching seeder's seed-meta.coverage field)
# lastObservedYear — most-recent year with global data in the source
# license — reuse license (CC-BY, CC0, OGL, Proprietary-with-fair-use, etc.)
# mechanismTestRationale — one-sentence answer to "what direct shock channel does this measure?"
# constructStatus — observed-mechanism | wealth-proxy | imputed-floor | regional-only | dead-signal
#
# constructStatus is the v3-plan classification:
# observed-mechanism — passes the mechanism test; kept as-is pending goalpost review
# wealth-proxy — fails the mechanism test; slated for removal or threshold-transform
# imputed-floor — data source not wired; producing only the imputed midpoint
# regional-only — data source covers <50% of scorable countries
# dead-signal — saturated or compressed; signal collapsed across the ranking
# ECONOMIC DOMAIN (weight 0.17) -------------------------------------------
- indicator: govRevenuePct
dimension: macroFiscal
domain: economic
weight: 0.50
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGR_G01_GDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGR_G01_GDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Government revenue % GDP is the policy-response headroom a state can deploy during a fiscal shock; higher = more ability to absorb.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Goalpost 5-45 is probably too wide at the top; Nordic revenue/GDP ≥ 50% saturates. Review in PR 4 goalpost pass.
- indicator: debtGrowthRate
dimension: macroFiscal
domain: economic
weight: 0.20
direction: lower-better
source: National debt databases (IMF + WB cross-source)
seriesId: TBD
seriesUrl: TBD
coveragePct: 0.80
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Mixed (per-source)
mechanismTestRationale: Rising debt growth indicates deteriorating fiscal trajectory and reduced capacity to finance a shock response.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: currentAccountPct
dimension: macroFiscal
domain: economic
weight: 0.30
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: BCA_NGDPD
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Current account surplus indicates external-payments resilience; deficit indicates vulnerability to external-finance shocks.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: fxVolatility
dimension: currencyExternal
domain: economic
weight: 0.60
direction: lower-better
source: BIS Data Portal
seriesId: Broad Effective Exchange Rate
seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
coveragePct: 0.30 # BIS covers 64 economies
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: CC-BY
mechanismTestRationale: FX volatility measures monetary-shock transmission risk.
constructStatus: regional-only
reviewNotes: BIS EER covers only 64 economies. Replace with FR.INR.RINR (real interest rate) or IMF inflation volatility in PR 3.
- indicator: fxDeviation
dimension: currencyExternal
domain: economic
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: BIS Data Portal
seriesId: EER deviation from equilibrium
seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
coveragePct: 0.30
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: CC-BY
mechanismTestRationale: EER deviation from equilibrium proxies mis-aligned exchange rates that create abrupt-correction risk.
constructStatus: regional-only
reviewNotes: Same 64-economy limitation. Retire in PR 3.
- indicator: fxReservesAdequacy
dimension: currencyExternal
domain: economic
weight: 0.15
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Reserves in months of imports directly measures immediate external-finance cushion.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Also enters reserveAdequacy at 1.0 weight. Double-counting risk across dimensions; review in PR 2.
- indicator: sanctionCount
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.45
direction: lower-better
source: OFAC
seriesId: Consolidated Sanctions List (count per country)
seriesUrl: https://sanctionslist.ofac.treas.gov/
coveragePct: 1.00
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: US Government public domain
mechanismTestRationale: Active sanctions restrict trade/finance channels; higher count = more channels restricted.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: OFAC-only. PR 4 adds EU/UK/CN sanctions for directional completeness.
- indicator: tradeRestrictions
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.15
direction: lower-better
source: WTO
seriesId: Trade Monitoring Database
seriesUrl: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/trade_monitoring_e.htm
coveragePct: 0.75
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Active trade restrictions (in-force, weighted 3×) directly measure market-access loss.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: tradeBarriers
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.15
direction: lower-better
source: WTO
seriesId: Trade Barriers Notifications
seriesUrl: https://tradebarriers.wto.org/
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Notified trade barriers (not yet in force) indicate near-term market-access risk.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: appliedTariffRate
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: World Bank / WITS
seriesId: TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Applied tariff rates measure cost of trade restriction on imports.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# INFRASTRUCTURE DOMAIN (weight 0.15) -------------------------------------
- indicator: cyberThreats
dimension: cyberDigital
domain: infrastructure
weight: 0.45
direction: lower-better
source: Cyber threat feeds (mixed Western-origin)
seriesId: severity-weighted count (critical 3×, high 2×, medium 1×, low 0.5×)
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Proprietary feeds (aggregated)
mechanismTestRationale: Severity-weighted cyber threat count directly measures ongoing cyber-attack pressure on national digital infrastructure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Western-feed bias; non-English cyber activity under-represented. PR 4 §4.8 tracks this.
- indicator: internetOutages
dimension: cyberDigital
domain: infrastructure
weight: 0.35
direction: lower-better
source: Cloudflare Radar + internal monitoring
seriesId: Outage penalty (total 4×, major 2×, partial 1×)
seriesUrl: https://radar.cloudflare.com/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Internet outages directly measure digital-infrastructure availability under current stress.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: gpsJamming
dimension: cyberDigital
domain: infrastructure
weight: 0.20
direction: lower-better
source: GPSJam
seriesId: Hex penalty (high 3×, medium 1×)
seriesUrl: https://gpsjam.org/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Open data
mechanismTestRationale: GPS jamming intensity measures electronic-warfare / navigation-disruption exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: logisticsPerformanceIndex
dimension: logisticsSupply
domain: infrastructure
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank LPI
seriesId: LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
seriesUrl: https://lpi.worldbank.org/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Logistics Performance Index measures functional capacity to move goods; directly shocks during supply-chain disruptions.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Goalpost anchors OECD-centric; PR 4 review.
- indicator: infrastructureSubcomponents
dimension: infrastructure
domain: infrastructure
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank + WEF Global Competitiveness
seriesId: Composite
seriesUrl: TBD
coveragePct: 0.80
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Physical infrastructure quality is the baseline capacity for delivering services during normal and crisis periods.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# ENERGY DOMAIN (weight 0.11) --------------------------------------------
- indicator: dependency
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: IEA (via static seed)
seriesId: Energy import dependency (%)
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser
coveragePct: 0.50 # IEA detail covers OECD + major non-OECD
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Share of energy consumption that is imported; direct supply-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 replaces with World Bank EG.IMP.CONS.ZS (better coverage) as part of importedFossilDependence composite.
- indicator: gasShare
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.12
direction: lower-better
source: IEA World Energy Balances via static seed
seriesId: Natural gas share of primary energy
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: CURRENT SCORER applies this as a vulnerability (lower-better) but it CONFLATES fossil-dominance with fossil-import-dependence. Domestic gas is a resilience asset, not a vulnerability.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 removes as standalone input; folds into importedFossilDependence under power-system framing.
- indicator: coalShare
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.08
direction: lower-better
source: IEA World Energy Balances via static seed
seriesId: Coal share of primary energy
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Same concern as gasShare — penalty is climate-frame, not resilience-frame. Fails mechanism test under absolute-resilience contract.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 removes.
- indicator: renewShare
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.05
direction: higher-better
source: IEA / World Bank
seriesId: EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Share of electricity from renewables, proxies low-carbon-firm-generation capacity (for hydro/geothermal) and diversity-of-supply (for wind/solar).
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.3 collapses with nuclearShare (currently missing) into one lowCarbonGenerationShare indicator.
- indicator: storageStress
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.10
direction: lower-better
source: GIE AGSI+
seriesId: EU gas storage fill % (per country)
seriesUrl: https://agsi.gie.eu/
coveragePct: 0.15 # EU + UK + a handful
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: EU gas storage fill directly measures winter-heating-shock buffer. European-only platform.
constructStatus: regional-only
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.5 renames to euGasStorageStress and scopes to EU-only (weight 0 for non-EU).
- indicator: exposedEnergyStress
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.10
direction: composite
source: Internal composite (energy-price-stress × import-exposure)
seriesId: Derived
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Internal
mechanismTestRationale: Combines energy-price shocks with import-exposure to measure price-shock transmission.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 1 may simplify given importedFossilDependence covers import-exposure directly.
- indicator: electricityConsumption
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.30
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2022
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: FAILS the mechanism test. Per-capita electricity consumption tracks GDP per capita; it is a level-of-load measure not a resilience mechanism. IEA energy-security framing treats EFFICIENCY (lower load for same output) as resilience, which this indicator inversely rewards.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.1 removes. Replaced with powerLossesPct (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), reserveMarginPct (IEA), and accessToElectricityPct (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) moved to infrastructure domain.
# SOCIAL-GOVERNANCE DOMAIN (weight 0.19) ---------------------------------
- indicator: wgiComposite
dimension: governanceInstitutional
domain: social-governance
weight: 1.0
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank WGI
seriesId: Voice/Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption
seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/
coveragePct: 0.98
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: WGI subscores measure state capacity to design and enforce policy response to shocks. Passes the mechanism test conditionally — the composite is a direct policy-response-capacity signal.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Weights review in PR 4. Individual WGI subscores may need separate weighting vs equal-blend.
- indicator: gpiScore
dimension: socialCohesion
domain: social-governance
weight: 0.40 # approximate
direction: lower-better
source: Institute for Economics and Peace
seriesId: Global Peace Index
seriesUrl: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/
coveragePct: 0.75
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: GPI measures internal conflict, militarization, and external conflict intensity — direct social-cohesion-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Known Western-democracy bias in GPI methodology; PR 4 review.
- indicator: displacementMetric
dimension: socialCohesion
domain: social-governance
weight: 0.30 # approximate
direction: lower-better
source: UNHCR
seriesId: totalDisplaced
seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Total displaced persons directly measures ongoing forced-migration pressure. BIAS: currently blends origin + host; penalizes Jordan/Turkey/Germany for HOSTING.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy # classified as biased — bias label
reviewNotes: PR 4 §4.2 splits origin (negative signal) from host (mixed signal).
- indicator: unrestMetric
dimension: socialCohesion
domain: social-governance
weight: 0.30 # approximate
direction: lower-better
source: Internal unrest seed (cross-source signals + UCDP)
seriesId: unrestCount + sqrt(fatalities)
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Active unrest events measure current social-cohesion stress.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: borderSecuritySubs
dimension: borderSecurity
domain: social-governance
weight: TBD
direction: composite
source: Composite (UNHCR displacement + UCDP conflict + governance)
seriesId: Derived
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.80
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Border-security composite captures cross-border shock transmission exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Inherits displacement host-vs-sending bias from socialCohesion. PR 4 fix.
- indicator: rsfPressFreedom
dimension: informationCognitive
domain: social-governance
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: Reporters Sans Frontieres
seriesId: Press Freedom Index
seriesUrl: https://rsf.org/en/index
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Press freedom proxies quality of information-shock response and independent verification capacity.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: languageNormalizedSocialVelocity
dimension: informationCognitive
domain: social-governance
weight: TBD
direction: composite
source: Reddit + cross-source + internal language-coverage-weighting
seriesId: Internal
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Language-normalized social-information velocity measures information-shock propagation speed adjusted for source-density bias.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# HEALTH-FOOD DOMAIN (weight 0.13) ---------------------------------------
- indicator: whoHealthExpenditure
dimension: healthPublicService
domain: health-food
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: WHO Global Health Observatory
seriesId: Current health expenditure per capita, PPP
seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2022
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Health expenditure per capita proxies health-system capacity. FAILS the strict mechanism test — it measures SPEND, not CAPACITY. Should be replaced with surge-capacity / bed-density / ICU-density threshold signal.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 4 §4.9 replacement.
- indicator: ipcPhase
dimension: foodWater
domain: health-food
weight: 0.15
direction: lower-better
source: FAO IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification)
seriesId: IPC Phase (1-5)
seriesUrl: https://www.ipcinfo.org/
coveragePct: 0.40 # IPC covers acutely-affected countries
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: IPC phase directly measures current food-security-crisis severity.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Coverage is inherently partial — IPC only tracks countries with current/imminent food crises. Imputed to a resilient-default for non-tracked countries.
- indicator: aquastatWaterStress
dimension: foodWater
domain: health-food
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: FAO AQUASTAT
seriesId: Water stress (withdrawal / renewable resources)
seriesUrl: https://www.fao.org/aquastat/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2020
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Water stress directly measures water-supply-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: aquastatWaterAvailability
dimension: foodWater
domain: health-food
weight: 0.15
direction: higher-better
source: FAO AQUASTAT
seriesId: Water availability (m³/capita)
seriesUrl: https://www.fao.org/aquastat/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2020
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Water availability per capita proxies baseline water-security-shock buffer.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# RECOVERY DOMAIN (weight 0.25) ------------------------------------------
- indicator: recoveryGovRevenue
dimension: fiscalSpace
domain: recovery
weight: 0.40
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGR_G01_GDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGR_G01_GDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Government revenue % GDP for recovery scenarios — policy-response fiscal headroom.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Duplicate with macroFiscal.govRevenuePct. PR 4 may de-duplicate.
- indicator: recoveryFiscalBalance
dimension: fiscalSpace
domain: recovery
weight: 0.30
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: General government net lending/borrowing as % of GDP — direct fiscal-response-capacity signal.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: recoveryDebtToGdp
dimension: fiscalSpace
domain: recovery
weight: 0.30
direction: lower-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGXWDG_NGDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: General government gross debt to GDP — fiscal-stress cushion.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Goalpost 0-150 is too linear; Japan at 260% (mostly domestic, yen-denominated) scores 0 despite weak real fiscal-stress risk. PR 4 §4.4 adds holder-composition modifier.
- indicator: recoveryReserveMonths
dimension: reserveAdequacy
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Central-bank reserves in months of imports — immediate external-liquidity cushion.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 2 §3.4 renames to liquidReserveAdequacy; new dimension sovereignFiscalBuffer added.
- indicator: recoveryDebtToReserves
dimension: externalDebtCoverage
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: lower-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.DOD.DSTC.CD
coveragePct: 0.75
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Short-term external debt to reserves ratio — rollover-shock exposure. Goalpost anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti (ratio≥1 = reserve inadequacy).
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 3 §3.5 point 3 re-goalposted from (0..5) to (0..2). Old goalpost saturated at 100 across the 9-country probe including stressed states; new anchor maps ratio=1.0 to score 50 and ratio=2.0 to score 0.
- indicator: recoveryImportHhi
dimension: importConcentration
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: lower-better
source: UN Comtrade
seriesId: HS2 bilateral Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
seriesUrl: https://comtrade.un.org/
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Import-partner concentration (HHI) — supplier-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Coverage gap for UAE and small-island states; PR 1+ audit.
- indicator: recoveryWgiContinuity
dimension: stateContinuity
domain: recovery
weight: 0.50
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank WGI
seriesId: Mean of WGI subscores
seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/
coveragePct: 0.98
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: WGI composite as state-continuity proxy — institutional durability through shocks.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Duplicate with governanceInstitutional.wgiComposite. PR 4 de-duplicate.
- indicator: recoveryConflictPressure
dimension: stateContinuity
domain: recovery
weight: 0.30
direction: lower-better
source: UCDP
seriesId: Armed conflict events / fatalities
seriesUrl: https://ucdp.uu.se/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: UCDP conflict intensity — direct state-continuity-shock metric.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: recoveryDisplacementVelocity
dimension: stateContinuity
domain: recovery
weight: 0.20
direction: lower-better
source: UNHCR
seriesId: Displacement as share of population
seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Displacement velocity — population-scale state-continuity stress.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Inherits host-vs-sending bias. PR 4 §4.2 fix.
- indicator: recoveryFuelStockDays
dimension: fuelStockDays
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: higher-better
source: IEA / EIA
seriesId: Days of fuel stock cover
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/oil-stocks-of-iea-countries
coveragePct: 0.30 # imputed for every country
lastObservedYear: null
license: Proprietary
mechanismTestRationale: Days of fuel stock for import-shock coverage. IEA rules bind only net importers; net exporters get no observed value.
constructStatus: imputed-floor
reviewNotes: PR 3 §3.5 retires from core score (permanent). Enrichment-only if IEA/EIA connector ever wires.
# PENDING ADDITIONS FOR PR 1+ --------------------------------------------
# PR 1 additions (not yet in the scorer):
# - powerLossesPct → EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS (transmission+distribution losses, lower-better)
# - reserveMarginPct → IEA electricity balance (generation reserve margin, higher-better)
# - accessToElectricityPct → EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS (threshold/saturating, moved to infrastructure domain)
# - importedFossilDependence → EG.IMP.CONS.ZS × fossil-generation-share (Option B power-system framing)
# - lowCarbonGenerationShare → EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS + EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS (higher-better)
# PR 2 additions (not yet in the scorer):
# - liquidReserveAdequacy → FI.RES.TOTL.MO (rename of current reserveMonths)
# - sovereignFiscalBuffer → IFSWF + official disclosures × access × liquidity × transparency
# PR 3 replacements (not yet in the scorer):
# - realInterestRate → FR.INR.RINR (replaces currencyExternal for non-BIS countries)
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