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worldmonitor/docs/api/InfrastructureService.openapi.yaml
Elie Habib 45f5e5a457 feat(forecast): AI Forecasts prediction module (#1579) 
* feat(forecast): add AI Forecasts prediction module (Pro-tier)

MiroFish-inspired prediction engine that generates structured forecasts
across 6 domains (conflict, market, supply chain, political, military,
infrastructure) using existing WorldMonitor data streams.

- Proto definitions for ForecastService with GetForecasts RPC
- Dedicated seed script (seed-forecasts.mjs) with 6 domain detectors,
  cross-domain cascade resolver, prediction market calibration, and
  trend detection via prior snapshot comparison
- Premium-gated RPC handler (PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS enforcement)
- Lazy-loaded ForecastPanel with domain filters, probability bars,
  trend arrows, signal evidence, and cascade links
- Health monitoring integration (seed-meta freshness tracking)
- Refresh scheduler with API key guard

* test(forecast): add 47 unit tests for forecast detectors and utilities

Covers forecastId, normalize, resolveCascades, calibrateWithMarkets,
computeTrends, and smoke tests for all 6 domain detectors. Exports
testable functions from seed script with direct-run guard.

* fix(forecast): domain mismatch 'infra' vs 'infrastructure', add panel category

- Seed script used 'infra' but ForecastPanel filtered on 'infrastructure',
  causing Infra tab to show zero results
- Added 'forecast' to intelligence category in PANEL_CATEGORY_MAP

* fix(forecast): move CSS to one-time injection, improve type safety

- P2: Move style block from setContent to one-time document.head injection
  to prevent CSS accumulation on repeated renders
- P3: Replace +toFixed(3) with Math.round for readability in seed script
- P3: Use Forecast type instead of any[] in RPC handler filter

* fix(forecast): handle sebuf proto data shapes from Redis

Detectors now normalize CII scores from server-side proto format
(combinedScore, TREND_DIRECTION_RISING, region) to uniform shape.
Outage severity handles proto enum format (SEVERITY_LEVEL_HIGH).
Added confidence floor of 0.3 for single-source predictions.

Verified against live Redis: 2 predictions generated (Iran infra
shutdown, IL political instability).

* feat(forecast): unlock AI Forecasts on web, lock desktop only (trial)

- Remove forecast RPC from PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS (web access is free)
- Panel locked on desktop only (same as oref-sirens/telegram-intel)
- Remove API key guards from data-loader and refresh scheduler
- Web users get full access during trial period

* chore: regenerate proto types with make generate

Re-ran make generate after rebasing on main. Plugin v0.7.0 dropped
@ts-nocheck from output, added it back to all 50 generated files.
Fixed 4 type errors from proto codegen changes:
- MarketSource enum -> string union type
- TemporalAnomalyProto -> TemporalAnomaly rename
- webcam lastUpdated number -> string

* fix(forecast): use chokepoints v4 key, include ciiContribution in unrest

- P1: Switch chokepoints input from stale v2 to active v4 Redis key,
  matching bootstrap.js and cache-keys.ts
- P2: Add ciiContribution to unrest component fallback chain in
  normalizeCiiEntry so political detector reads the correct sebuf field

* feat(forecast): Phase 2 LLM scenario enrichment + confidence model

MiroFish-inspired enhancements:
- LLM scenario narratives via Groq/OpenRouter (narrative-only, no numeric
  adjustment). Evidence-grounded prompts with mandatory signal citation
  and few-shot examples from MiroFish's SECTION_SYSTEM_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.
- Top-4 predictions batched into single LLM call for cost efficiency.
- News context from newsInsights attached to all predictions for LLM
  prompt grounding (NOT in signals, cannot affect confidence).
- Deterministic confidence model: source diversity via SIGNAL_TO_SOURCE
  mapping (deduplicates cii+cii_delta, theater+indicators) + calibration
  agreement from prediction market drift. Floor 0.2, ceiling 1.0.
- Output validation: rejects scenarios without signal references.
- Truncated JSON repair for small model output.
- Structured JSON logging for LLM calls.
- Redis cache for LLM scenarios (1h TTL).
- 23 new tests (70 total), all passing.
- Live-tested: OpenRouter gemini-2.5-flash produces evidence-grounded
  scenario narratives from real WorldMonitor data.

* feat(forecast): Phase 3 multi-perspective scenarios, projections, data-driven cascades

MiroFish-inspired enhancements:
- Multi-perspective LLM analysis: top-2 predictions get strategic,
  regional, and contrarian viewpoints via combined LLM call
- Probability projections: domain-specific decay curves (h24/d7/d30)
  anchored to timeHorizon so probability equals projections[timeHorizon]
- Data-driven cascade rules: moved from hardcoded array to JSON config
  (scripts/data/cascade-rules.json) with schema validation, named
  predicate evaluators, unknown key rejection, and fallback to defaults
- 4 new cascade paths: infrastructure->supply_chain, infrastructure->market
  (both requiresSeverity:total), conflict->political, political->market
- Proto: added Perspectives and Projections messages to Forecast
- ForecastPanel: renders projections row and conditional perspectives toggle
- 89 tests (19 new), all passing
- Live-tested: OpenRouter produces perspectives from real data

* feat(forecast): Phase 4 data utilization + entity graph

Fixes data gaps that prevented 4 of 6 detectors from firing:
- Input normalizers: chokepoint v4 shape + GPS hexes-to-zones mapping
- Chokepoint warm-ping (production-only, requires WM_API_BASE_URL)
- Lowered CII conflict threshold from 70 to 60, gated on level=high|critical

4 new standalone detectors:
- UCDP conflict zones (10+ events per country)
- Cyber threat concentration (5+ threats per country)
- GPS jamming in maritime shipping zones (5 regions)
- Prediction markets as signals (60-90% probability markets)

Entity-relationship graph (file-based, 38 nodes):
- Countries, theaters, commodities, chokepoints, alliances
- Alias table resolves both ISO codes and display names
- Graph cascade discovery links predictions across entities

Result: 51 predictions (up from 1-2), spanning conflict, infrastructure,
and supply chain domains. 112 tests, all passing.

* fix(forecast): redis cache format, signal source mapping, type safety

Fresh-eyes audit fixes:
- BUG: redisSet used wrong Upstash API format (POST body with {value,ex}
  instead of command array ['SET',key,value,'EX',ttl]). LLM cache writes
  were silently failing, causing fresh LLM calls every run.
- BUG: prediction_market signal type missing from SIGNAL_TO_SOURCE,
  inflating confidence for market-derived predictions.
- CLEANUP: Remove unnecessary (f as any) casts in ForecastPanel since
  generated Forecast type already has projections/perspectives fields.
- CLEANUP: Bump health maxStaleMin from 60 to 90 to avoid false STALE
  alerts when LLM calls add latency to seed runs.

* feat(forecast): headline-entity matching with news corroboration signals

Uses entity graph aliases to match headlines to predictions by
country/theater (excludes commodity/infrastructure nodes to prevent
false positives). Predictions with matching headlines get a
news_corroboration signal visible in the panel.

Also fixes buildUserPrompt to merge unique headlines from ALL
predictions in the LLM batch (was only reading preds[0].newsContext).

Live-tested: 13 of 51 predictions now have corroborating headlines
(Iran, Israel, Syria, Ukraine, etc). 116 tests, all passing.

* feat(forecast): add country-codes.json for headline-entity matching

56 countries with ISO codes, full names, and scoring keywords (extracted
from src/config/countries.ts + UCDP-relevant additions). Used by
attachNewsContext for richer headline matching via getSearchTermsForRegion
which combines country-codes + entity graph + keyword aliases.

14/57 predictions now have news corroboration (limited by headline
coverage, not matching quality: only 8 headlines currently available).

* feat(forecast): read 300 headlines from news digest instead of 8

Read news:digest:v1:full:en (300 headlines across 16 categories) instead
of just news:insights:v1 topStories (8 headlines). Fallback to topStories
if digest is unavailable.

Result: news corroboration jumped from 25% to 64% (38/59 predictions).

* fix(forecast): handle parenthetical country names in headline matching

Strip suffixes like '(Zaire)', '(Burma)', '(Soviet Union)' from UCDP
region names before matching against country-codes.json. Also use
includes() for reverse name lookup to catch partial matches.

Corroboration: 64% -> 69% (41/59). Remaining 18 unmatched are countries
with no current English-language news coverage.

* fix(forecast): cache validated LLM output, add digest test, log cache errors

Fresh-eyes audit fixes:
- Combined LLM cache now stores only validated items (was caching raw
  unvalidated output, serving potentially invalid scenarios on cache hit)
- redisSet logs warnings on failure (was silently swallowing all errors)
- Added digest-based test for attachNewsContext (primary path was untested)
- Fixed test arity: attachNewsContext(preds, news, digest) with 3 params

* fix(forecast): remove dead confidenceFromSources, reduce warm-ping timeout

- P2: Remove confidenceFromSources (dead code, computeConfidence overwrites
  all initial confidence values). Inline the formula in original detectors.
- P3: Reduce warm-ping timeout from 30s to 15s (non-critical step)
- P3: Add trial status comment on forecast panel config

* fix(forecast): resolve ISO codes to country names, fix market detector, safe pre-push

P1 fixes from code review:
- CII ISO codes (IL, IR) now resolved to full country names (Israel, Iran)
  via country-codes.json. Prevents substring false positives (IL matching
  Chile) in event correlation. Uses word-boundary regex for matching.
- Market detector CII-to-theater mapping now uses entity graph traversal
  instead of broken theater-name substring matching. Iran correctly maps
  to Middle East theater via graph links.
- Pre-push hook no longer runs destructive git checkout on proto freshness
  failure. Reports mismatch and exits without modifying worktree.
2026-03-15 01:42:04 +04:00

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openapi: 3.1.0
info:
title: InfrastructureService API
version: 1.0.0
paths:
/api/infrastructure/v1/list-internet-outages:
get:
tags:
- InfrastructureService
summary: ListInternetOutages
description: ListInternetOutages retrieves detected internet outages from Cloudflare Radar.
operationId: ListInternetOutages
parameters:
- name: start
in: query
description: Start of time range (inclusive), Unix epoch milliseconds.
required: false
schema:
type: string
format: int64
- name: end
in: query
description: End of time range (inclusive), Unix epoch milliseconds.
required: false
schema:
type: string
format: int64
- name: page_size
in: query
description: Maximum items per page.
required: false
schema:
type: integer
format: int32
- name: cursor
in: query
description: Cursor for next page.
required: false
schema:
type: string
- name: country
in: query
description: Optional country filter (ISO 3166-1 alpha-2).
required: false
schema:
type: string
responses:
"200":
description: Successful response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ListInternetOutagesResponse'
"400":
description: Validation error
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ValidationError'
default:
description: Error response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/Error'
/api/infrastructure/v1/list-service-statuses:
get:
tags:
- InfrastructureService
summary: ListServiceStatuses
description: ListServiceStatuses retrieves operational status of monitored external services.
operationId: ListServiceStatuses
parameters:
- name: status
in: query
description: Optional status filter. Returns only services in this state.
required: false
schema:
type: string
responses:
"200":
description: Successful response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ListServiceStatusesResponse'
"400":
description: Validation error
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ValidationError'
default:
description: Error response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/Error'
/api/infrastructure/v1/get-temporal-baseline:
get:
tags:
- InfrastructureService
summary: GetTemporalBaseline
description: GetTemporalBaseline checks current activity count against stored baseline for anomaly detection.
operationId: GetTemporalBaseline
parameters:
- name: type
in: query
description: 'Activity type: "military_flights", "vessels", "protests", "news", "ais_gaps", "satellite_fires".'
required: false
schema:
type: string
- name: region
in: query
description: Geographic region key, defaults to "global".
required: false
schema:
type: string
- name: count
in: query
description: Current observed count to compare against baseline.
required: false
schema:
type: number
format: double
responses:
"200":
description: Successful response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/GetTemporalBaselineResponse'
"400":
description: Validation error
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ValidationError'
default:
description: Error response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/Error'
/api/infrastructure/v1/record-baseline-snapshot:
post:
tags:
- InfrastructureService
summary: RecordBaselineSnapshot
description: RecordBaselineSnapshot batch-updates baseline statistics using Welford's online algorithm.
operationId: RecordBaselineSnapshot
requestBody:
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/RecordBaselineSnapshotRequest'
required: true
responses:
"200":
description: Successful response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/RecordBaselineSnapshotResponse'
"400":
description: Validation error
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ValidationError'
default:
description: Error response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/Error'
/api/infrastructure/v1/get-cable-health:
get:
tags:
- InfrastructureService
summary: GetCableHealth
description: GetCableHealth computes health status for submarine cables from NGA maritime warning signals.
operationId: GetCableHealth
responses:
"200":
description: Successful response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/GetCableHealthResponse'
"400":
description: Validation error
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ValidationError'
default:
description: Error response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/Error'
/api/infrastructure/v1/list-temporal-anomalies:
get:
tags:
- InfrastructureService
summary: ListTemporalAnomalies
description: ListTemporalAnomalies returns server-computed temporal anomalies for news and satellite_fires.
operationId: ListTemporalAnomalies
responses:
"200":
description: Successful response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ListTemporalAnomaliesResponse'
"400":
description: Validation error
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ValidationError'
default:
description: Error response
content:
application/json:
schema:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/Error'
components:
schemas:
Error:
type: object
properties:
message:
type: string
description: Error message (e.g., 'user not found', 'database connection failed')
description: Error is returned when a handler encounters an error. It contains a simple error message that the developer can customize.
FieldViolation:
type: object
properties:
field:
type: string
description: The field path that failed validation (e.g., 'user.email' for nested fields). For header validation, this will be the header name (e.g., 'X-API-Key')
description:
type: string
description: Human-readable description of the validation violation (e.g., 'must be a valid email address', 'required field missing')
required:
- field
- description
description: FieldViolation describes a single validation error for a specific field.
ValidationError:
type: object
properties:
violations:
type: array
items:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/FieldViolation'
description: List of validation violations
required:
- violations
description: ValidationError is returned when request validation fails. It contains a list of field violations describing what went wrong.
ListInternetOutagesRequest:
type: object
properties:
start:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'Start of time range (inclusive), Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
end:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'End of time range (inclusive), Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
pageSize:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Maximum items per page.
cursor:
type: string
description: Cursor for next page.
country:
type: string
description: Optional country filter (ISO 3166-1 alpha-2).
description: ListInternetOutagesRequest specifies filters for retrieving internet outages.
ListInternetOutagesResponse:
type: object
properties:
outages:
type: array
items:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/InternetOutage'
pagination:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/PaginationResponse'
description: ListInternetOutagesResponse contains internet outages matching the request.
InternetOutage:
type: object
properties:
id:
type: string
minLength: 1
description: Unique outage identifier.
title:
type: string
description: Outage title.
link:
type: string
description: URL to the outage report.
description:
type: string
description: Outage description.
detectedAt:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'Detection time, as Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
country:
type: string
description: Affected country (ISO 3166-1 alpha-2).
region:
type: string
description: Affected region within the country.
location:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/GeoCoordinates'
severity:
type: string
enum:
- OUTAGE_SEVERITY_UNSPECIFIED
- OUTAGE_SEVERITY_PARTIAL
- OUTAGE_SEVERITY_MAJOR
- OUTAGE_SEVERITY_TOTAL
description: |-
OutageSeverity represents the severity of an internet outage.
Maps to TS union: 'partial' | 'major' | 'total'.
categories:
type: array
items:
type: string
description: Affected infrastructure categories.
cause:
type: string
description: Root cause, if determined.
outageType:
type: string
description: Outage type classification.
endedAt:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'End time of the outage, as Unix epoch milliseconds. Zero if ongoing.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
required:
- id
description: InternetOutage represents a detected internet outage event from Cloudflare Radar.
GeoCoordinates:
type: object
properties:
latitude:
type: number
maximum: 90
minimum: -90
format: double
description: Latitude in decimal degrees (-90 to 90).
longitude:
type: number
maximum: 180
minimum: -180
format: double
description: Longitude in decimal degrees (-180 to 180).
description: GeoCoordinates represents a geographic location using WGS84 coordinates.
PaginationResponse:
type: object
properties:
nextCursor:
type: string
description: Cursor for fetching the next page. Empty string indicates no more pages.
totalCount:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Total count of items matching the query, if known. Zero if the total is unknown.
description: PaginationResponse contains pagination metadata returned alongside list results.
ListServiceStatusesRequest:
type: object
properties:
status:
type: string
enum:
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_UNSPECIFIED
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_OPERATIONAL
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_DEGRADED
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_PARTIAL_OUTAGE
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_MAJOR_OUTAGE
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_MAINTENANCE
description: ServiceOperationalStatus represents the current status of a service.
description: ListServiceStatusesRequest specifies filters for retrieving service statuses.
ListServiceStatusesResponse:
type: object
properties:
statuses:
type: array
items:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/ServiceStatus'
description: ListServiceStatusesResponse contains service operational statuses.
ServiceStatus:
type: object
properties:
id:
type: string
description: Service identifier.
name:
type: string
description: Service display name.
status:
type: string
enum:
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_UNSPECIFIED
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_OPERATIONAL
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_DEGRADED
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_PARTIAL_OUTAGE
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_MAJOR_OUTAGE
- SERVICE_OPERATIONAL_STATUS_MAINTENANCE
description: ServiceOperationalStatus represents the current status of a service.
description:
type: string
description: Status description.
url:
type: string
description: Service URL or homepage.
checkedAt:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'Last status check time, as Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
latencyMs:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Response latency in milliseconds.
description: ServiceStatus represents the operational status of a monitored external service.
GetTemporalBaselineRequest:
type: object
properties:
type:
type: string
minLength: 1
description: 'Activity type: "military_flights", "vessels", "protests", "news", "ais_gaps", "satellite_fires".'
region:
type: string
description: Geographic region key, defaults to "global".
count:
type: number
format: double
description: Current observed count to compare against baseline.
required:
- type
description: GetTemporalBaselineRequest checks current activity count against stored baseline.
GetTemporalBaselineResponse:
type: object
properties:
anomaly:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/BaselineAnomaly'
baseline:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/BaselineStats'
learning:
type: boolean
description: True if insufficient samples have been collected.
sampleCount:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Current number of samples stored.
samplesNeeded:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Minimum samples required before anomaly detection activates.
error:
type: string
description: Error message if request was invalid.
description: GetTemporalBaselineResponse returns anomaly info or learning status.
BaselineAnomaly:
type: object
properties:
zScore:
type: number
format: double
description: Number of standard deviations from the mean.
severity:
type: string
description: 'Severity label: "critical", "high", "medium", "normal".'
multiplier:
type: number
format: double
description: Ratio of current count to baseline mean.
description: BaselineAnomaly describes a detected deviation from historical baseline.
BaselineStats:
type: object
properties:
mean:
type: number
format: double
description: Running mean of observed counts.
stdDev:
type: number
format: double
description: Standard deviation derived from Welford's M2.
sampleCount:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Number of samples incorporated so far.
description: BaselineStats contains the running statistics for a baseline key.
RecordBaselineSnapshotRequest:
type: object
properties:
updates:
type: array
items:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/BaselineUpdate'
description: RecordBaselineSnapshotRequest batch-updates baselines using Welford's online algorithm.
BaselineUpdate:
type: object
properties:
type:
type: string
minLength: 1
description: Activity type key.
region:
type: string
description: Geographic region key, defaults to "global".
count:
type: number
format: double
description: Observed count value.
required:
- type
description: BaselineUpdate is a single metric observation to incorporate into the running baseline.
RecordBaselineSnapshotResponse:
type: object
properties:
updated:
type: integer
format: int32
description: Number of baselines that were written.
error:
type: string
description: Error message if the request was invalid.
description: RecordBaselineSnapshotResponse reports how many baselines were successfully updated.
GetCableHealthRequest:
type: object
description: GetCableHealthRequest requests the current health status of all monitored submarine cables.
GetCableHealthResponse:
type: object
properties:
generatedAt:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'Generation timestamp, as Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
cables:
type: object
additionalProperties:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/CableHealthRecord'
description: Health records keyed by cable identifier.
description: GetCableHealthResponse contains health status for submarine cables with active signals.
CablesEntry:
type: object
properties:
key:
type: string
value:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/CableHealthRecord'
CableHealthRecord:
type: object
properties:
status:
type: string
enum:
- CABLE_HEALTH_STATUS_UNSPECIFIED
- CABLE_HEALTH_STATUS_OK
- CABLE_HEALTH_STATUS_DEGRADED
- CABLE_HEALTH_STATUS_FAULT
description: CableHealthStatus represents the computed health status of a submarine cable.
score:
type: number
format: double
description: Composite health score (0.0 = healthy, 1.0 = confirmed fault).
confidence:
type: number
format: double
description: Confidence in the health assessment (0.0–1.0).
lastUpdated:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'Last signal update time, as Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
evidence:
type: array
items:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/CableHealthEvidence'
description: CableHealthRecord contains the computed health status and supporting evidence for a cable.
CableHealthEvidence:
type: object
properties:
source:
type: string
description: Evidence source (e.g. "NGA").
summary:
type: string
description: Human-readable summary of the evidence.
ts:
type: integer
format: int64
description: 'Evidence timestamp, as Unix epoch milliseconds.. Warning: Values > 2^53 may lose precision in JavaScript'
description: CableHealthEvidence represents a single piece of evidence supporting a health assessment.
ListTemporalAnomaliesRequest:
type: object
ListTemporalAnomaliesResponse:
type: object
properties:
anomalies:
type: array
items:
$ref: '#/components/schemas/TemporalAnomaly'
trackedTypes:
type: array
items:
type: string
computedAt:
type: string
TemporalAnomaly:
type: object
properties:
type:
type: string
region:
type: string
currentCount:
type: integer
format: int32
expectedCount:
type: integer
format: int32
zScore:
type: number
format: double
severity:
type: string
multiplier:
type: number
format: double
message:
type: string
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