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* feat(resilience): PR 2 §3.4 recovery-domain weight rebalance
Dials the two PR 2 §3.4 recovery dims (liquidReserveAdequacy,
sovereignFiscalBuffer) to ~10% share each of the recovery-domain
score via a new per-dimension weight channel in the coverage-weighted
mean. Matches the plan's direction that the sovereign-wealth signal
complement — rather than dominate — the classical liquid-reserves
and fiscal-space signals.
Implementation
- RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS: new Record<ResilienceDimensionId, number>
alongside RESILIENCE_DOMAIN_WEIGHTS. Every dim has an explicit entry
(default 1.0) so rebalance decisions stay auditable; the two new
recovery dims carry 0.5 each.
Share math at full coverage (6 active recovery dims):
weight sum = 4 × 1.0 + 2 × 0.5 = 5.0
each new-dim share = 0.5 / 5.0 = 0.10 ✓
each core-dim share = 1.0 / 5.0 = 0.20
Retired dims (reserveAdequacy, fuelStockDays) keep weight 1.0 in
the map; their coverage=0 neutralizes them at the coverage channel
regardless. Explicit entries guard against a future scorer bug
accidentally returning coverage>0 for a retired dim and falling
through the `?? 1.0` default — every retirement decision is now
tied to a single explicit source of truth.
- coverageWeightedMean (_shared.ts): refactored to apply
`coverage × dimWeight` per dim instead of `coverage` alone. Backward-
compatible when all weights default to 1.0 (reduces to the original
mean). All three aggregation callers — buildDomainList, baseline-
Score, stressScore — pick up the weighting transparently.
Test coverage
1. New `tests/resilience-recovery-weight-rebalance.test.mts`:
pins the per-dim weight values, asserts the share math
(0.10 new / 0.20 core), verifies completeness of the weight map,
and documents why retired dims stay in the map at 1.0.
2. New `tests/resilience-recovery-ordering.test.mts`: fixture-based
Spearman-proxy sensitivity check. Asserts NO > US > YE ordering
preserved on both the overall score and the recovery-domain
subscore after the rebalance. (Live post-merge Spearman rerun
against the PR 0 snapshot is tracked as a follow-up commit.)
3. resilience-scorers.test.mts fixture anchors updated in lockstep:
baselineScore: 60.35 → 62.17 (low-scoring liquidReserveAdequacy
+ partial-coverage SWF now contribute ~half the weight)
overallScore: 63.60 → 64.39 (recovery subscore lifts by ~3 pts
from the rebalance, overall by ~0.79)
recovery flat mean: 48.75 (unchanged — flat mean doesn't apply
weights by design; documents the coverage-weighted diff)
Local coverageWeightedMean helper in the test mirrors the
production implementation (weights applied per dim).
Methodology doc
- New "Per-dimension weights in the recovery domain" subsection with
the weight table and a sentence explaining the cap. Cross-references
the source of truth (RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS).
Deliberate non-goals
- Live post-merge Spearman ≥0.85 check against the PR 0 baseline
snapshot. Fixture ordering is preserved (new ordering test); the
live-data check runs after Railway cron refreshes the rankings on
the new weights and commits docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-live-
post-pr2-<date>.json. Tracked as the final piece of PR 2 §3.4
alongside the health.js / bootstrap graduation (waiting on the
7-day Railway cron bake-in window).
Tests: 6588/6588 data-tier tests pass. Typecheck clean on both
tsconfig configs. Biome clean on touched files. NO > US > YE
fixture ordering preserved.
* fix(resilience): PR 2 review — thread RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS through the comparison harness
Greptile P2: the operator comparison harness
(scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs) claims its domain
scores "mirror the production scorer's coverage-weighted mean" and is
the artifact generator for Spearman / rank-delta acceptance decisions.
After PR 2 §3.4's weight rebalance, the production mirror diverged —
production now applies RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS (liquidReserveAdequacy
= 0.5, sovereignFiscalBuffer = 0.5) inside coverageWeightedMean, but
the harness still used equal-weight aggregation.
Left unfixed, post-merge Spearman / rank-delta diagnostics would
compare live API scores (with the 0.5 recovery weights) against
harness predictions that assume equal-share dims — silently biasing
every acceptance decision until someone noticed a country's rank-
delta didn't track.
Fix
- Mirrored coverageWeightedMean now accepts dimensionWeights and
applies `coverage × weight` per dim, matching _shared.ts exactly.
- Mirrored buildDomainList accepts + forwards dimensionWeights.
- main() imports RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS from the scorer module
and passes it through to buildDomainList at the single call site.
- Missing-entry default = 1.0 (same contract as production) — makes
the harness forward-compatible with any future weight refactor
(adds a new dim without an explicit entry, old production fallback
path still produces the correct number).
Verification
- Harness syntax-check clean (node -c).
- RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS import resolves correctly from the
harness's import path.
- 509/509 resilience tests still pass (harness isn't in the test
suite; the invariant is that production ↔ harness use the same
math, and the production side is covered by tests/resilience-
recovery-weight-rebalance.test.mts).
* fix(resilience): PR 2 review — bump cache prefixes v10→v11 + document coverage-vs-weight asymmetry
Greptile P1 + P2 on PR #3328.
P1 — cache prefix not bumped after formula change
--------------------------------------------------
The per-dim weight rebalance changes the score formula, but the
`_formula` tag only distinguishes 'd6' vs 'pc' (pillar-combined vs
legacy 6-domain) — it does NOT detect intra-'d6' weight changes. Left
unfixed, scores cached before deploy would be served with the old
equal-weight math for up to the full 6h TTL, and the ranking key for
up to its 12h TTL. Matches the established v9→v10 pattern for every
prior formula-changing deploy.
Bumped in lockstep:
- RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX: v10 → v11
- RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY: v10 → v11
- RESILIENCE_HISTORY_KEY_PREFIX: v5 → v6
- scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs local mirrors
- api/health.js resilienceRanking literal
- 4 analysis/backtest scripts that read the cached keys directly
- Test fixtures in resilience-{ranking, handlers, scores-seed,
pillar-aggregation}.test.* that assert on literal key values
The v5→v6 history bump is the critical one: without it, pre-rebalance
history points would mix with post-rebalance points inside the 30-day
window, and change30d / trend math would diff values from different
formulas against each other, producing false-negative "falling" trends
for every country across the deploy window.
P2 — coverage-vs-weight asymmetry in computeLowConfidence / computeOverallCoverage
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reviewer flagged that these two functions still average coverage
equally across all non-retired dims, even after the scoring aggregation
started applying RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS. The asymmetry is
INTENTIONAL — these signals answer a different question from scoring:
scoring aggregation: "how much does each dim matter to the score?"
coverage signal: "how much real data do we have on this country?"
A dim at weight 0.5 still has the same data-availability footprint as
a weight=1.0 dim: its coverage value reflects whether we successfully
fetched the upstream source, not whether the scorer cares about it.
Applying scoring weights to the coverage signal would let a
half-weight dim hide half its sparsity from the overallCoverage pill,
misleading users reading coverage as a data-quality indicator.
Added explicit comments to both functions noting the asymmetry is
deliberate and pointing at the other site for matching rationale.
No code change — just documentation.
Tests: 6588/6588 data-tier tests pass (+511 resilience-specific
including the prefix-literal assertions). Typecheck clean on both
tsconfig configs. Biome clean on touched files.
* docs(resilience): bump methodology doc cache-prefix references to v11/v6
Greptile P2 on PR #3328: Redis keys table in the reproducibility
appendix still published `score:v10` / `ranking:v10` / `history:v5`,
and the rollback instructions told operators to flush those keys.
After the recovery-domain weight rebalance, live cache runs at
`score:v11` / `ranking:v11` / `history:v6`.
- Updated the Redis keys table (line 490-492) to match `_shared.ts`.
- Updated the rollback block to name the current keys.
- Left the historical "Activation sequence" narrative intact (it
accurately describes the pillar-combine PR's v9→v10 / v4→v5 bump)
but added a parenthetical pointing at the current v11/v6 values.
No code change — doc-only correction for operator accuracy.
* fix(docs): escape MDX-unsafe `<137` pattern to unblock Mintlify deploy
Line 643 had `(<137 countries)` — MDX parses `<137` as a JSX tag
starting with digit `1`, which is illegal and breaks the deploy with
"Unexpected character \`1\` (U+0031) before name". Surfaced after the
prior cache-prefix commit forced Mintlify to re-parse this file.
Replaced with "fewer than 137 countries" for unambiguous rendering.
Other `<` occurrences in this doc (lines 34, 642) are followed by
whitespace and don't trip MDX's tag parser.