Files
worldmonitor/docs/snapshots
Elie Habib fbaf07e106 feat(resilience): flag-gated pillar-combined score activation (default off) (#3267)
Wires the non-compensatory 3-pillar combined overall_score behind a
RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED env flag. Default is false so this PR
ships zero behavior change in production. When flipped true the
top-level overall_score switches from the 6-domain weighted aggregate
to penalizedPillarScore(pillars) with alpha 0.5 and pillar weights
0.40 / 0.35 / 0.25.

Evidence from docs/snapshots/resilience-pillar-sensitivity-2026-04-21:
- Spearman rank correlation current vs proposed 0.9935
- Mean score delta -13.44 points (every country drops, penalty is
  always at most 1)
- Max top-50 rank swing 6 positions (Russia)
- No ceiling or floor effects under plus/minus 20pct perturbation
- Release gate PASS 0/19

Code change in server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts:
- New isPillarCombineEnabled() reads env dynamically so tests can flip
  state without reloading the module
- overallScore branches on (isPillarCombineEnabled() AND
  RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED AND pillars.length > 0); otherwise falls
  through to the 6-domain aggregate (unchanged default path)
- RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX bumped v9 to v10
- RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY bumped v9 to v10

Cache invalidation: the version bump forces both per-country score
cache and ranking cache to recompute from the current code path on
first read after a flag flip. Without the bump, 6-domain values cached
under the flag-off path would continue to serve for up to 6-12 hours
after the flip, producing a ragged mix of formulas.

Ripple of v9 to v10:
- api/health.js registry entry
- scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs (both keys)
- scripts/validate-resilience-correlation.mjs,
  scripts/backtest-resilience-outcomes.mjs,
  scripts/validate-resilience-backtest.mjs,
  scripts/benchmark-resilience-external.mjs
- tests/resilience-ranking.test.mts 24 fixture usages
- tests/resilience-handlers.test.mts
- tests/resilience-scores-seed.test.mjs explicit pin
- tests/resilience-pillar-aggregation.test.mts explicit pin
- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx

New tests/resilience-pillar-combine-activation.test.mts:
7 assertions exercising the flag-on path against the release fixtures
with re-anchored bands (NO at least 60, YE/SO at most 40, NO greater
than US preserved, elite greater than fragile). Regression guard
verifies flipping the flag back off restores the 6-domain aggregate.

tests/resilience-ranking-snapshot.test.mts: band thresholds now
resolve from a METHODOLOGY_BANDS table keyed on
snapshot.methodologyFormula. Backward compatible (missing formula
defaults to domain-weighted-6d bands).

Snapshots:
- docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-2026-04-21.json tagged
  methodologyFormula domain-weighted-6d
- docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-pillar-combined-projected-2026-04-21.json
  new: top/bottom/major-economies tables projected from the
  52-country sensitivity sample. Explicitly tagged projected (NOT a
  full-universe live capture). When the flag is flipped in production,
  run scripts/freeze-resilience-ranking.mjs to capture the
  authoritative full-universe snapshot.

Methodology doc: Pillar-combined score activation section rewritten to
describe the flag-gated mechanism (activation is an env-var flip, no
code deploy) and the rollback path.

Verification: npm run typecheck:all clean, 397/397 resilience tests
pass (up from 390, +7 activation tests).

Activation plan:
1. Merge this PR with flag default false (zero behavior change)
2. Set RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED=true in Vercel and Railway env
3. Redeploy or wait for next cold start; v9 to v10 bump forces every
   country to be rescored on first read
4. Run scripts/freeze-resilience-ranking.mjs against the flag-on
   deployment and commit the resulting snapshot
5. Ship a v2.0 methodology-change note explaining the re-anchored
   scale so analysts understand the universal ~13 point score drop is
   a scale rebase, not a country-level regression

Rollback: set RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED=false, flush
resilience:score:v10:* and resilience:ranking:v10 keys (or wait for
TTLs). The 6-domain formula stays alongside the pillar combine in
_shared.ts and needs no code change to come back.
2026-04-22 06:52:07 +04:00
..