mirror of
https://github.com/koala73/worldmonitor.git
synced 2026-04-25 17:14:57 +02:00
6807a9c7b9
* docs(resilience): PR 5.2 — displacement field-mapping audit + known-limitations
PR 5.2 of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. Read-only static audit of
the UNHCR displacement field mapping consumed by scoreSocialCohesion,
scoreBorderSecurity, and scoreStateContinuity.
Findings
1. Field mapping is CODE-CORRECT. The plan's concern — that
`totalDisplaced` might inadvertently include labor migrants — is
negative at the source. The UNHCR Population API does not publish
labor migrant data at all; it covers only four categories
(refugees, asylum seekers, IDPs, stateless), all of which the
seeder sums correctly. Labor-migrant-dominated cohorts (GCC, SG)
legitimately register as "no UNHCR footprint" — that's UNHCR
semantics, not a bug.
2. NEW finding during audit — `scoreBorderSecurity` fallback at
_dimension-scorers.ts:1412 is effectively dead code. The
`hostTotal ?? totalDisplaced` fallback never fires in production
for two compounding reasons:
(a) `safeNum(null)` returns 0 (JS `Number(null) === 0`), so the
`??` short-circuits on 0 — the nullish-coalescing only falls
back on null/undefined.
(b) `scripts/seed-displacement-summary.mjs` ALWAYS writes
`hostTotal: 0` explicitly for origin-only countries (lines
141-144). There's no production shape where `hostTotal` is
undefined, so the `??` can never select the fallback path.
Observable consequence: origin-only high-outflow countries
(Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Afghanistan) score 100 on
borderSecurity's displacement sub-component (35% of the dim
blend). The outflow signal is effectively silenced.
3. NOT fixing this in this PR. A one-line change (`||` or an
explicit `> 0` check) would flip the borderSecurity score for
~6 high-outflow origin countries by a material amount — a
methodology change, not a pure bug-fix. Belongs in a construct-
decision PR with before/after cohort snapshots. Opening this as
a follow-up discussion instead of bundling into an audit-doc PR.
Shipped
- `docs/methodology/known-limitations.md` — new file. Sections:
"Displacement field-mapping" covering source semantics (what
UNHCR provides vs does not), the GCC labor-migrant-cohort
implication, the `??` short-circuit finding, and the decision
to not fix in this PR. Includes a follow-up audit list of 11
countries (high host-pressure + high origin-outflow + labor-
migrant cohorts) for a live-data spot-check against UNHCR
Refugee Data Finder — gated on API-key access.
- `tests/resilience-displacement-field-mapping.test.mts` —
9-test regression guard. Pins:
(1) `totalDisplaced` = sum of all four UNHCR categories;
(2) `hostTotal` = asylum-side sum (no IDPs/stateless);
(3) stateless population flows into totalDisplaced (guards
against a future seeder refactor that drops the term);
(4) labor-migrant-cohort (UNHCR-empty) entry scores 100 on
the displacement sub-component — the correct-per-UNHCR-
semantics outcome, intentionally preserved;
(5) CURRENT scoreBorderSecurity behaviour: hostTotal=0
short-circuits `??` (Syria-pattern scores 100);
(6) `??` fallback ONLY fires when hostTotal is undefined
(academic; seeder never emits this shape today);
(7) `safeNum(null)` returns 0 quirk pinned as a numeric-
coercion contract;
(8) absent-from-UNHCR country imputes `stable-absence`;
(9) scoreStateContinuity reads `totalDisplaced` origin-side.
Verified
- `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-displacement-field-mapping.test.mts` — 9 pass / 0 fail
- `npm run test:data` — 6703 pass / 0 fail
- `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green
- `npm run lint` / `lint:md` — no warnings on new files
* fix(resilience): PR 5.2 review — escape backticks in assertion message
Addresses Greptile P2 on #3373. The unescaped backticks around the
nullish-coalescing operator in a template literal caused JavaScript to
parse the string as 'prefix' ?? 'suffix' — truncating the assertion
message to the prefix alone on failure. Escaping the backticks preserves
the full diagnostic so a future regression shows the complete context.
Semantics unchanged; test still passes.