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worldmonitor/docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml
Elie Habib 7f78a7561f feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 point 3 — re-goalpost externalDebtCoverage (0..5 → 0..2) 
Plan §2.1 diagnosis table showed externalDebtCoverage saturating at
score=100 across all 9 probe countries — including stressed states.
Signal was collapsed. Root cause: (worst=5, best=0) gave every country
with ratio < 0.5 a score above 90, and mapped Greenspan-Guidotti's
reserve-adequacy threshold (ratio=1.0) to score 80 — well into "no
worry" territory instead of the "mild warning" it should be.

Re-anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti directly: ratio=1.0 now maps to score
50 (mild warning), ratio=2.0 to score 0 (acute rollover-shock exposure).
Ratios above 2.0 clamp to 0, consistent with "beyond this point the
country is already in crisis; exact value stops mattering."

Files changed:

- _indicator-registry.ts: recoveryDebtToReserves goalposts
  {worst: 5, best: 0} → {worst: 2, best: 0}. Description updated to
  cite Greenspan-Guidotti; inline comment documents anchor + rationale.

- _dimension-scorers.ts: scoreExternalDebtCoverage normalizer bound
  changed from (0..5) to (0..2), with inline comment.

- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx: goalpost table row
  5-0 → 2-0, description cites Greenspan-Guidotti.

- docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml:
  * constructStatus: dead-signal → observed-mechanism (signal is now
    discriminating).
  * reviewNotes updated to describe the new anchor.
  * mechanismTestRationale names the Greenspan-Guidotti rule.

- tests/resilience-dimension-monotonicity.test.mts: updated the
  comment + picked values inside the (0..2) discriminating band (0.3
  and 1.5). Old values (1 vs 4) had 4 clamping to 0.

- tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts: NO score threshold
  relaxed >90 → >=85 (NO ratio=0.2 now scores 90, was 96).

- tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts: fixture drift:
  * domainAverages.recovery 54.83 → 47.33 (US extDebt 70 → 25).
  * baselineScore 63.63 → 60.12 (extDebt is baseline type).
  * overallScore 65.52 → 63.27.
  * stressScore / stressFactor unchanged (extDebt is baseline-only).

All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
2026-04-22 22:15:16 +04:00

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# Resilience scorer indicator-source manifest (PR 0 scaffold, 2026-04-22).
#
# One entry per sub-indicator used inside a dimension scorer. Each entry
# answers the mechanism test from docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-
# scorer-structural-bias-plan.md §1.1: what direct shock channel does this
# measure?
#
# Fields:
# indicator — scorer variable name (matches the weighted-blend entry)
# dimension — parent dimension id (matches RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER)
# domain — parent domain id
# weight — current nominal weight inside the dimension blend
# direction — higher-better | lower-better | composite
# source — authority that publishes the series
# seriesId — canonical series id where applicable (e.g. EG.IMP.CONS.ZS)
# seriesUrl — direct link to source documentation
# coveragePct — observed-data coverage across the 222-country static index (first-pass estimate; authoritative value lives in the matching seeder's seed-meta.coverage field)
# lastObservedYear — most-recent year with global data in the source
# license — reuse license (CC-BY, CC0, OGL, Proprietary-with-fair-use, etc.)
# mechanismTestRationale — one-sentence answer to "what direct shock channel does this measure?"
# constructStatus — observed-mechanism | wealth-proxy | imputed-floor | regional-only | dead-signal
#
# constructStatus is the v3-plan classification:
# observed-mechanism — passes the mechanism test; kept as-is pending goalpost review
# wealth-proxy — fails the mechanism test; slated for removal or threshold-transform
# imputed-floor — data source not wired; producing only the imputed midpoint
# regional-only — data source covers <50% of scorable countries
# dead-signal — saturated or compressed; signal collapsed across the ranking
# ECONOMIC DOMAIN (weight 0.17) -------------------------------------------
- indicator: govRevenuePct
dimension: macroFiscal
domain: economic
weight: 0.50
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGR_G01_GDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGR_G01_GDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Government revenue % GDP is the policy-response headroom a state can deploy during a fiscal shock; higher = more ability to absorb.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Goalpost 5-45 is probably too wide at the top; Nordic revenue/GDP ≥ 50% saturates. Review in PR 4 goalpost pass.
- indicator: debtGrowthRate
dimension: macroFiscal
domain: economic
weight: 0.20
direction: lower-better
source: National debt databases (IMF + WB cross-source)
seriesId: TBD
seriesUrl: TBD
coveragePct: 0.80
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Mixed (per-source)
mechanismTestRationale: Rising debt growth indicates deteriorating fiscal trajectory and reduced capacity to finance a shock response.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: currentAccountPct
dimension: macroFiscal
domain: economic
weight: 0.30
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: BCA_NGDPD
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Current account surplus indicates external-payments resilience; deficit indicates vulnerability to external-finance shocks.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: fxVolatility
dimension: currencyExternal
domain: economic
weight: 0.60
direction: lower-better
source: BIS Data Portal
seriesId: Broad Effective Exchange Rate
seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
coveragePct: 0.30 # BIS covers 64 economies
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: CC-BY
mechanismTestRationale: FX volatility measures monetary-shock transmission risk.
constructStatus: regional-only
reviewNotes: BIS EER covers only 64 economies. Replace with FR.INR.RINR (real interest rate) or IMF inflation volatility in PR 3.
- indicator: fxDeviation
dimension: currencyExternal
domain: economic
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: BIS Data Portal
seriesId: EER deviation from equilibrium
seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
coveragePct: 0.30
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: CC-BY
mechanismTestRationale: EER deviation from equilibrium proxies mis-aligned exchange rates that create abrupt-correction risk.
constructStatus: regional-only
reviewNotes: Same 64-economy limitation. Retire in PR 3.
- indicator: fxReservesAdequacy
dimension: currencyExternal
domain: economic
weight: 0.15
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Reserves in months of imports directly measures immediate external-finance cushion.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Also enters reserveAdequacy at 1.0 weight. Double-counting risk across dimensions; review in PR 2.
- indicator: sanctionCount
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.45
direction: lower-better
source: OFAC
seriesId: Consolidated Sanctions List (count per country)
seriesUrl: https://sanctionslist.ofac.treas.gov/
coveragePct: 1.00
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: US Government public domain
mechanismTestRationale: Active sanctions restrict trade/finance channels; higher count = more channels restricted.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: OFAC-only. PR 4 adds EU/UK/CN sanctions for directional completeness.
- indicator: tradeRestrictions
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.15
direction: lower-better
source: WTO
seriesId: Trade Monitoring Database
seriesUrl: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/trade_monitoring_e.htm
coveragePct: 0.75
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Active trade restrictions (in-force, weighted 3×) directly measure market-access loss.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: tradeBarriers
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.15
direction: lower-better
source: WTO
seriesId: Trade Barriers Notifications
seriesUrl: https://tradebarriers.wto.org/
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Notified trade barriers (not yet in force) indicate near-term market-access risk.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: appliedTariffRate
dimension: tradeSanctions
domain: economic
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: World Bank / WITS
seriesId: TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Applied tariff rates measure cost of trade restriction on imports.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# INFRASTRUCTURE DOMAIN (weight 0.15) -------------------------------------
- indicator: cyberThreats
dimension: cyberDigital
domain: infrastructure
weight: 0.45
direction: lower-better
source: Cyber threat feeds (mixed Western-origin)
seriesId: severity-weighted count (critical 3×, high 2×, medium 1×, low 0.5×)
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Proprietary feeds (aggregated)
mechanismTestRationale: Severity-weighted cyber threat count directly measures ongoing cyber-attack pressure on national digital infrastructure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Western-feed bias; non-English cyber activity under-represented. PR 4 §4.8 tracks this.
- indicator: internetOutages
dimension: cyberDigital
domain: infrastructure
weight: 0.35
direction: lower-better
source: Cloudflare Radar + internal monitoring
seriesId: Outage penalty (total 4×, major 2×, partial 1×)
seriesUrl: https://radar.cloudflare.com/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Internet outages directly measure digital-infrastructure availability under current stress.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: gpsJamming
dimension: cyberDigital
domain: infrastructure
weight: 0.20
direction: lower-better
source: GPSJam
seriesId: Hex penalty (high 3×, medium 1×)
seriesUrl: https://gpsjam.org/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Open data
mechanismTestRationale: GPS jamming intensity measures electronic-warfare / navigation-disruption exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: logisticsPerformanceIndex
dimension: logisticsSupply
domain: infrastructure
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank LPI
seriesId: LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
seriesUrl: https://lpi.worldbank.org/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Logistics Performance Index measures functional capacity to move goods; directly shocks during supply-chain disruptions.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Goalpost anchors OECD-centric; PR 4 review.
- indicator: infrastructureSubcomponents
dimension: infrastructure
domain: infrastructure
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank + WEF Global Competitiveness
seriesId: Composite
seriesUrl: TBD
coveragePct: 0.80
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Physical infrastructure quality is the baseline capacity for delivering services during normal and crisis periods.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# ENERGY DOMAIN (weight 0.11) --------------------------------------------
- indicator: dependency
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: IEA (via static seed)
seriesId: Energy import dependency (%)
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser
coveragePct: 0.50 # IEA detail covers OECD + major non-OECD
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Share of energy consumption that is imported; direct supply-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 replaces with World Bank EG.IMP.CONS.ZS (better coverage) as part of importedFossilDependence composite.
- indicator: gasShare
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.12
direction: lower-better
source: IEA World Energy Balances via static seed
seriesId: Natural gas share of primary energy
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: CURRENT SCORER applies this as a vulnerability (lower-better) but it CONFLATES fossil-dominance with fossil-import-dependence. Domestic gas is a resilience asset, not a vulnerability.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 removes as standalone input; folds into importedFossilDependence under power-system framing.
- indicator: coalShare
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.08
direction: lower-better
source: IEA World Energy Balances via static seed
seriesId: Coal share of primary energy
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Same concern as gasShare — penalty is climate-frame, not resilience-frame. Fails mechanism test under absolute-resilience contract.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 removes.
- indicator: renewShare
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.05
direction: higher-better
source: IEA / World Bank
seriesId: EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Share of electricity from renewables, proxies low-carbon-firm-generation capacity (for hydro/geothermal) and diversity-of-supply (for wind/solar).
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.3 collapses with nuclearShare (currently missing) into one lowCarbonGenerationShare indicator.
- indicator: storageStress
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.10
direction: lower-better
source: GIE AGSI+
seriesId: EU gas storage fill % (per country)
seriesUrl: https://agsi.gie.eu/
coveragePct: 0.15 # EU + UK + a handful
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: EU gas storage fill directly measures winter-heating-shock buffer. European-only platform.
constructStatus: regional-only
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.5 renames to euGasStorageStress and scopes to EU-only (weight 0 for non-EU).
- indicator: exposedEnergyStress
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.10
direction: composite
source: Internal composite (energy-price-stress × import-exposure)
seriesId: Derived
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Internal
mechanismTestRationale: Combines energy-price shocks with import-exposure to measure price-shock transmission.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 1 may simplify given importedFossilDependence covers import-exposure directly.
- indicator: electricityConsumption
dimension: energy
domain: energy
weight: 0.30
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2022
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: FAILS the mechanism test. Per-capita electricity consumption tracks GDP per capita; it is a level-of-load measure not a resilience mechanism. IEA energy-security framing treats EFFICIENCY (lower load for same output) as resilience, which this indicator inversely rewards.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.1 removes. Replaced with powerLossesPct (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), reserveMarginPct (IEA), and accessToElectricityPct (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) moved to infrastructure domain.
# SOCIAL-GOVERNANCE DOMAIN (weight 0.19) ---------------------------------
- indicator: wgiComposite
dimension: governanceInstitutional
domain: social-governance
weight: 1.0
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank WGI
seriesId: Voice/Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption
seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/
coveragePct: 0.98
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: WGI subscores measure state capacity to design and enforce policy response to shocks. Passes the mechanism test conditionally — the composite is a direct policy-response-capacity signal.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Weights review in PR 4. Individual WGI subscores may need separate weighting vs equal-blend.
- indicator: gpiScore
dimension: socialCohesion
domain: social-governance
weight: 0.40 # approximate
direction: lower-better
source: Institute for Economics and Peace
seriesId: Global Peace Index
seriesUrl: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/
coveragePct: 0.75
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: GPI measures internal conflict, militarization, and external conflict intensity — direct social-cohesion-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Known Western-democracy bias in GPI methodology; PR 4 review.
- indicator: displacementMetric
dimension: socialCohesion
domain: social-governance
weight: 0.30 # approximate
direction: lower-better
source: UNHCR
seriesId: totalDisplaced
seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Total displaced persons directly measures ongoing forced-migration pressure. BIAS: currently blends origin + host; penalizes Jordan/Turkey/Germany for HOSTING.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy # classified as biased — bias label
reviewNotes: PR 4 §4.2 splits origin (negative signal) from host (mixed signal).
- indicator: unrestMetric
dimension: socialCohesion
domain: social-governance
weight: 0.30 # approximate
direction: lower-better
source: Internal unrest seed (cross-source signals + UCDP)
seriesId: unrestCount + sqrt(fatalities)
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Active unrest events measure current social-cohesion stress.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: borderSecuritySubs
dimension: borderSecurity
domain: social-governance
weight: TBD
direction: composite
source: Composite (UNHCR displacement + UCDP conflict + governance)
seriesId: Derived
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.80
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Border-security composite captures cross-border shock transmission exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Inherits displacement host-vs-sending bias from socialCohesion. PR 4 fix.
- indicator: rsfPressFreedom
dimension: informationCognitive
domain: social-governance
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: Reporters Sans Frontieres
seriesId: Press Freedom Index
seriesUrl: https://rsf.org/en/index
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Press freedom proxies quality of information-shock response and independent verification capacity.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: languageNormalizedSocialVelocity
dimension: informationCognitive
domain: social-governance
weight: TBD
direction: composite
source: Reddit + cross-source + internal language-coverage-weighting
seriesId: Internal
seriesUrl: Internal seed
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Mixed
mechanismTestRationale: Language-normalized social-information velocity measures information-shock propagation speed adjusted for source-density bias.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# HEALTH-FOOD DOMAIN (weight 0.13) ---------------------------------------
- indicator: whoHealthExpenditure
dimension: healthPublicService
domain: health-food
weight: TBD
direction: higher-better
source: WHO Global Health Observatory
seriesId: Current health expenditure per capita, PPP
seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2022
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Health expenditure per capita proxies health-system capacity. FAILS the strict mechanism test — it measures SPEND, not CAPACITY. Should be replaced with surge-capacity / bed-density / ICU-density threshold signal.
constructStatus: wealth-proxy
reviewNotes: PR 4 §4.9 replacement.
- indicator: ipcPhase
dimension: foodWater
domain: health-food
weight: 0.15
direction: lower-better
source: FAO IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification)
seriesId: IPC Phase (1-5)
seriesUrl: https://www.ipcinfo.org/
coveragePct: 0.40 # IPC covers acutely-affected countries
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: IPC phase directly measures current food-security-crisis severity.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Coverage is inherently partial — IPC only tracks countries with current/imminent food crises. Imputed to a resilient-default for non-tracked countries.
- indicator: aquastatWaterStress
dimension: foodWater
domain: health-food
weight: 0.25
direction: lower-better
source: FAO AQUASTAT
seriesId: Water stress (withdrawal / renewable resources)
seriesUrl: https://www.fao.org/aquastat/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2020
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Water stress directly measures water-supply-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: aquastatWaterAvailability
dimension: foodWater
domain: health-food
weight: 0.15
direction: higher-better
source: FAO AQUASTAT
seriesId: Water availability (m³/capita)
seriesUrl: https://www.fao.org/aquastat/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2020
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Water availability per capita proxies baseline water-security-shock buffer.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
# RECOVERY DOMAIN (weight 0.25) ------------------------------------------
- indicator: recoveryGovRevenue
dimension: fiscalSpace
domain: recovery
weight: 0.40
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGR_G01_GDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGR_G01_GDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: Government revenue % GDP for recovery scenarios — policy-response fiscal headroom.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Duplicate with macroFiscal.govRevenuePct. PR 4 may de-duplicate.
- indicator: recoveryFiscalBalance
dimension: fiscalSpace
domain: recovery
weight: 0.30
direction: higher-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: General government net lending/borrowing as % of GDP — direct fiscal-response-capacity signal.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: recoveryDebtToGdp
dimension: fiscalSpace
domain: recovery
weight: 0.30
direction: lower-better
source: IMF
seriesId: GGXWDG_NGDP_PT
seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP_PT@FM/
coveragePct: 0.90
lastObservedYear: 2024
license: Proprietary-with-fair-use
mechanismTestRationale: General government gross debt to GDP — fiscal-stress cushion.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Goalpost 0-150 is too linear; Japan at 260% (mostly domestic, yen-denominated) scores 0 despite weak real fiscal-stress risk. PR 4 §4.4 adds holder-composition modifier.
- indicator: recoveryReserveMonths
dimension: reserveAdequacy
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO
coveragePct: 0.85
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Central-bank reserves in months of imports — immediate external-liquidity cushion.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 2 §3.4 renames to liquidReserveAdequacy; new dimension sovereignFiscalBuffer added.
- indicator: recoveryDebtToReserves
dimension: externalDebtCoverage
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: lower-better
source: World Bank
seriesId: DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD
seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.DOD.DSTC.CD
coveragePct: 0.75
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: Short-term external debt to reserves ratio — rollover-shock exposure. Goalpost anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti (ratio≥1 = reserve inadequacy).
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: PR 3 §3.5 point 3 re-goalposted from (0..5) to (0..2). Old goalpost saturated at 100 across the 9-country probe including stressed states; new anchor maps ratio=1.0 to score 50 and ratio=2.0 to score 0.
- indicator: recoveryImportHhi
dimension: importConcentration
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: lower-better
source: UN Comtrade
seriesId: HS2 bilateral Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
seriesUrl: https://comtrade.un.org/
coveragePct: 0.70
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Import-partner concentration (HHI) — supplier-shock exposure.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Coverage gap for UAE and small-island states; PR 1+ audit.
- indicator: recoveryWgiContinuity
dimension: stateContinuity
domain: recovery
weight: 0.50
direction: higher-better
source: World Bank WGI
seriesId: Mean of WGI subscores
seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/
coveragePct: 0.98
lastObservedYear: 2023
license: CC-BY-4.0
mechanismTestRationale: WGI composite as state-continuity proxy — institutional durability through shocks.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Duplicate with governanceInstitutional.wgiComposite. PR 4 de-duplicate.
- indicator: recoveryConflictPressure
dimension: stateContinuity
domain: recovery
weight: 0.30
direction: lower-better
source: UCDP
seriesId: Armed conflict events / fatalities
seriesUrl: https://ucdp.uu.se/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2026
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: UCDP conflict intensity — direct state-continuity-shock metric.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
- indicator: recoveryDisplacementVelocity
dimension: stateContinuity
domain: recovery
weight: 0.20
direction: lower-better
source: UNHCR
seriesId: Displacement as share of population
seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/
coveragePct: 0.95
lastObservedYear: 2025
license: Open
mechanismTestRationale: Displacement velocity — population-scale state-continuity stress.
constructStatus: observed-mechanism
reviewNotes: Inherits host-vs-sending bias. PR 4 §4.2 fix.
- indicator: recoveryFuelStockDays
dimension: fuelStockDays
domain: recovery
weight: 1.00
direction: higher-better
source: IEA / EIA
seriesId: Days of fuel stock cover
seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/oil-stocks-of-iea-countries
coveragePct: 0.30 # imputed for every country
lastObservedYear: null
license: Proprietary
mechanismTestRationale: Days of fuel stock for import-shock coverage. IEA rules bind only net importers; net exporters get no observed value.
constructStatus: imputed-floor
reviewNotes: PR 3 §3.5 retires from core score (permanent). Enrichment-only if IEA/EIA connector ever wires.
# PENDING ADDITIONS FOR PR 1+ --------------------------------------------
# PR 1 additions (not yet in the scorer):
# - powerLossesPct → EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS (transmission+distribution losses, lower-better)
# - reserveMarginPct → IEA electricity balance (generation reserve margin, higher-better)
# - accessToElectricityPct → EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS (threshold/saturating, moved to infrastructure domain)
# - importedFossilDependence → EG.IMP.CONS.ZS × fossil-generation-share (Option B power-system framing)
# - lowCarbonGenerationShare → EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS + EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS (higher-better)
# PR 2 additions (not yet in the scorer):
# - liquidReserveAdequacy → FI.RES.TOTL.MO (rename of current reserveMonths)
# - sovereignFiscalBuffer → IFSWF + official disclosures × access × liquidity × transparency
# PR 3 replacements (not yet in the scorer):
# - realInterestRate → FR.INR.RINR (replaces currencyExternal for non-BIS countries)
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