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worldmonitor/scripts/shared
Elie Habib 08a5eb77a5 fix(intelligence): region-scope signals and chokepoint evidence (#2952)
* fix(intelligence): region-scope signals and chokepoint evidence

Two review findings on PR #2940 caused MENA/SSA snapshots to silently
drop broad cross-source signals and leak foreign chokepoint events into
every region's evidence chain.

P1 - theater label matching
  seed-cross-source-signals.mjs normalizes raw values to broad display
  labels like "Middle East" and "Sub-Saharan Africa". The consumer side
  compared these against region.theaters kebab IDs (levant, persian-gulf,
  horn-of-africa). "middle east" does not substring-match any of those,
  so every MENA signal emitted with the broad label was silently dropped
  from coercive_pressure and the evidence chain. Same for SSA.

  Added signalAliases per region and a shared isSignalInRegion helper in
  shared/geography.js. Both balance-vector.mjs and evidence-collector.mjs
  now route signals through the helper, which normalizes both sides and
  matches against theater IDs or region aliases.

P2 - chokepoint region leak
  evidence-collector.mjs:62 iterated every chokepoint in the payload
  without filtering by regionId, so Taiwan Strait, Baltic, and Panama
  threat events surfaced in MENA and SSA evidence chains. Now derives
  the allowed chokepoint ID set from getRegionCorridors(regionId) and
  skips anything not owned by the region.

Added 15 unit tests covering: broad-label matching, kebab/spaced input,
cross-region rejection, and the chokepoint filter for MENA/East Asia/
Europe/SSA.

* fix(intelligence): address Greptile P2 review findings on #2952

Two P2 findings from Greptile on the region-scoping PR.

1) Drop 'eu' short alias from europe.signalAliases
   `isSignalInRegion` uses substring matching, and bare 'eu' would match
   any theater label containing those two letters ('fuel', 'neutral zone',
   'feudal'). Replaced with 'european union' which is long enough to be
   unambiguous. No seed currently emits a bare 'eu' label, so this is
   pure hardening.

2) Make THEATERS.corridorIds live data via getRegionCorridors union
   horn-of-africa declared corridorIds: ['babelm'] and caribbean declared
   corridorIds: ['panama'], but `getRegionCorridors` only consulted
   CORRIDORS.theaterId — so those entries were dead data. After yesterday's
   region-scoped chokepoint filter, Bab el-Mandeb threat events landed
   ONLY in MENA evidence (via the primary red-sea theater), never in SSA,
   even though the corridor physically borders Djibouti/Eritrea. Same for
   Panama missing from LatAm.

   `getRegionCorridors` now unions direct theater membership (via
   CORRIDORS.theaterId) with indirect claims (via THEATERS.corridorIds),
   de-duplicated by corridor id. This reflects geopolitical reality:
     - MENA + SSA both see babelm threat events
     - NA + LatAm both see panama threat events
   Scoring impact: SSA maritime_access now weighs babelm (weight 0.9),
   LatAm maritime_access now weighs panama (weight 0.6). These were
   missing buffers under the pre-fix model.

   Added regression tests for both new paths. The existing
   "SSA evidence has no chokepoints" test was inverted to assert SSA now
   DOES include babelm (and excludes MENA/East Asia corridors).
2026-04-11 20:28:55 +04:00
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