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worldmonitor/scripts/shared/swf-classification-manifest.yaml
Elie Habib abdcdb581f feat(resilience): SWF manifest expansion + KIA split + new schema fields (#3391) 
* feat(resilience): SWF manifest expansion + KIA split + new schema fields

Phase 1 of plan 2026-04-25-001 (Codex-approved round 5). Manifest-only
data correction; no construct change, no cache prefix bump.

Schema additions (loader-validated, misplacement-rejected):
- top-level: aum_usd, aum_year, aum_verified (primary-source AUM)
- under classification: aum_pct_of_audited (fraction multiplier),
  excluded_overlaps_with_reserves (boolean; documentation-only)

Manifest expansion (13 → 21 funds, 6 → 13 countries):
- UAE: +ICD ($320B verified), +ADQ ($199B verified), +EIA (unverified —
  loaded for documentation, excluded from scoring per data-integrity rule)
- KW: kia split into kia-grf (5%, access=0.9) + kia-fgf (95%,
  access=0.20). Corrects ~18× over-statement of crisis-deployable
  Kuwait sovereign wealth (audit found combined-AUM × 0.7 access
  applied $750B as "deployable" against ~$15B actual GRF stabilization
  capacity).
- CN: +CIC ($1.35T), +NSSF ($400B, statutorily-gated 0.20 tier),
  +SAFE-IC ($417B, excluded — overlaps SAFE FX reserves)
- HK: +HKMA-EF ($498B, excluded — overlaps HKMA reserves)
- KR: +KIC ($182B, IFSWF full member)
- AU: +Future Fund ($192B, pension-locked)
- OM: +OIA ($50B, IFSWF member)
- BH: +Mumtalakat ($19B)
- TL: +Petroleum Fund ($22B, GPFG-style high-transparency)

Re-audits (Phase 1E):
- ADIA access 0.3 → 0.4 (rubric flagged; ruler-discretionary deployment
  empirically demonstrated)
- Mubadala access 0.4 → 0.5 (rubric flagged); transparency 0.6 → 0.7
  (LM=10 + IFSWF full member alignment)

Rubric (docs/methodology/swf-classification-rubric.md):
- New "Statutorily-gated long-horizon" 0.20 access tier added between
  0.1 (sanctions/frozen) and 0.3 (intergenerational/ruler-discretionary).
  Anchored by KIA-FGF (Decree 106 of 1976; Council-of-Ministers + Emir
  decree gate; crossed once in extremis during COVID).

Seeder:
- Two new pure helpers: shouldSkipFundForBuffer (excluded/unverified
  decision) and applyAumPctOfAudited (sleeve fraction multiplier)
- Manifest-AUM bypass: if aum_verified=true AND aum_usd present,
  use that value directly (skip Wikipedia)
- Skip funds with excluded_overlaps_with_reserves=true (no
  double-counting against reserveAdequacy / liquidReserveAdequacy)
- Skip funds with aum_verified=false (load for documentation only)

Tests (+25 net):
- 15 schema-extension tests (misplacement rejection, value-range gates,
  rationale-pairing coherence, backward-compat with pre-PR entries)
- 10 helper tests (shouldSkipFundForBuffer + applyAumPctOfAudited
  predicates and arithmetic; KIA-GRF + KIA-FGF sum equals combined AUM)
- Existing manifest test updated for the kia → kia-grf+kia-fgf split

Full suite: 6,940 tests pass (+50 net), typecheck clean, no new lint.

Predicted ranking deltas (informational, NOT acceptance criteria per
plan §"Hard non-goals"):
- AE sovFiscBuf likely 39 → 47-49 (Phase 1A + 1E)
- KW sovFiscBuf likely 98 → 53-57 (Phase 1B)
- CN, HK (excluded), KR, AU acquire newly-defined sovFiscBuf scores
- GCC ordering shifts toward QA > KW > AE; AE-KW gap likely 6 → ~3-4

Real outcome will be measured post-deploy via cohort audit per plan
§Phase 4.

* fix(resilience): completeness denominator excludes documentation-only funds

PR-3391 review (P1 catch): the per-country `expectedFunds` denominator
counted ALL manifest entries (`funds.length`) including those skipped
from buffer scoring by design — `excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: true`
(SAFE-IC, HKMA-EF) and `aum_verified: false` (EIA). Result: countries
with mixed scorable + non-scorable rosters showed `completeness < 1.0`
even when every scorable fund matched. UAE (4 scorable + EIA) would
show 0.8; CN (CIC + NSSF + SAFE-IC excluded) would show 0.67. The
downstream scorer then derated those countries' coverage based on a
fake-partial signal.

Three call sites all carried the same bug:
- per-country `expectedFunds` in fetchSovereignWealth main loop
- `expectedFundsTotal` + `expectedCountries` in buildCoverageSummary
- `countManifestFundsForCountry` (missing-country path)

All three now filter via `shouldSkipFundForBuffer` to count only
scorable manifest entries. Documentation-only funds neither expected
nor matched — they don't appear in the ratio at all.

Tests added (+4):
- AE complete with all 4 scorable matched (EIA documented but excluded)
- CN complete with CIC + NSSF matched (SAFE-IC documented but excluded)
- Missing-country path returns scorable count not raw manifest count
- Country with ONLY documentation-only entries excluded from expectedCountries

Full suite: 6,944 tests pass (+4 net), typecheck clean.

* fix(resilience): address Greptile P2s on PR #3391 manifest

Three review findings, all in the manifest YAML:

1. **KIA-GRF access 0.9 → 0.7** (rubric alignment): GRF deployment
   requires active Council-of-Ministers authorization (2020 COVID
   precedent demonstrates this), not rule-triggered automatic
   deployment. The rubric's 0.9 tier ("Pure automatic stabilization")
   reserved for funds where political authorization is post-hoc /
   symbolic (Chile ESSF candidate). KIA-GRF correctly fits 0.7
   ("Explicit stabilization with rule") — the same tier the
   pre-split combined-KIA was assigned. Updated rationale clarifies
   the tier choice. Rubric's 0.7 precedent column already lists
   "KIA General Reserve Fund" — now consistent with the manifest.

2. **Duplicate `# ── Australia ──` header before Oman** (copy-paste
   artifact): removed the orphaned header at the Oman section;
   added proper `# ── Australia ──` header above the Future Fund
   entry where it actually belongs (after Timor-Leste).

3. **NSSF `aum_pct_of_audited: 1.0` removed** (no-op): a multiplier
   of 1.0 is identity. The schema field is OPTIONAL and only meant
   for fund-of-funds split entries (e.g. KIA-GRF/FGF). Setting it
   to 1.0 forced the loader to require an `aum_pct_of_audited`
   rationale paragraph with no computational benefit. Both the
   field and the paragraph are now removed; NSSF remains a single-
   sleeve entry that scores its full audited AUM.

Full suite: 6,944 tests pass, typecheck clean.
2026-04-25 12:02:48 +04:00

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# Sovereign Wealth Fund Classification Manifest
# =============================================
#
# Authoritative list of sovereign wealth funds scored for the
# `sovereignFiscalBuffer` resilience dimension (PR 2 of the resilience
# repair plan, docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-scorer-
# structural-bias-plan.md §3.4).
#
# Methodology of the per-fund classification. Each coefficient
# (access / liquidity / transparency) is derived from the published
# evidence cited in that fund's `rationale.*` + `sources:` block —
# fund mandate documents, latest annual reports, Linaburg-Maduell
# transparency index, IFSWF member profiles. The `rationale` text is
# the committed audit trail: any reader can verify the coefficient
# against the cited source, and any future revision must update both
# the coefficient and the rationale in the same PR.
#
# Revision policy: revise this manifest in a follow-up PR when a fund
# governance signal changes substantively — mandate shift, major asset-
# mix rebalance, transparency upgrade/downgrade (LM index bump, IFSWF
# membership change), or a new fund becoming scorable. Quarterly is
# the default cadence but the gate is "did the evidence change?", not
# the calendar.
#
# Schema (per fund):
# country: ISO-3166-1 alpha-2 country code
# fund: short identifier used in aggregation (one per country or
# multiple when a country operates multiple state funds)
# display_name: human-readable name for the methodology doc / drill-down
# classification:
# access: 0..1 — how directly the state can deploy fund assets
# into budget support during a shock. Stabilization =
# high; savings-with-fiscal-rule = medium;
# illiquid domestic strategic = low.
# liquidity: 0..1 — share of fund AUM in liquid public markets.
# transparency: 0..1 — normalized Linaburg-Maduell / IFSWF compliance.
# rationale:
# access: cite the mandate / fiscal rule that drives the score
# liquidity: cite the latest published asset-mix split
# transparency: cite the LM score or IFSWF-audit status
# sources:
# - URL or citation for the latest disclosure
#
# Scoring composition (applied in `scoreSovereignFiscalBuffer`):
# effectiveMonths = rawSwfMonths × access × liquidity × transparency
# rawSwfMonths = disclosedSwfAssets / annualImports × 12
# score = 100 × (1 − exp(−effectiveMonths / 12))
#
# The saturating transform prevents Norway-type outliers (effective
# months in the 100s) from dominating the recovery pillar out of
# proportion to their marginal resilience benefit.
#
# Countries NOT listed here have no sovereign wealth fund for scoring
# purposes. Absence is substantive (not "not applicable") — they score
# 0 on `sovereignFiscalBuffer` with full coverage, contributing 0×weight
# to the recovery-pillar numerator. See plan §3.4 "What happens to no-
# SWF countries."
#
# Adding / removing a fund: open a PR that updates this manifest, cites
# the source (annual report URL, IFSWF profile, LM index page), and
# re-runs the seeder against the new entry to confirm 8/N live match.
manifest_version: 1
last_reviewed: 2026-04-25
# REVIEWED means: coefficients derive from the committed rationale +
# sources block and the seeder end-to-end matches the expected funds
# against the live Wikipedia / IFSWF / official-disclosure surfaces.
# PENDING is reserved for PRs that ship unresolved / TBD coefficients.
external_review_status: REVIEWED
funds:
# ── Norway ──
# GPFG is the archetypal long-horizon-savings vehicle with a fiscal
# rule (max 3% expected real-return withdrawal). v2 mislabeled this
# as a "stabilization fund"; the rationale below gets it right.
- country: NO
fund: gpfg
display_name: Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG)
wikipedia:
abbrev: GPF-G
fund_name: Government Pension Fund Global
classification:
access: 0.6
liquidity: 1.0
transparency: 1.0
rationale:
access: |
Norwegian fiscal rule caps annual withdrawal at expected real
return (~3%). Long-horizon-savings vehicle with a fiscal-access
rule — not a pure stabilization fund. Medium-high access score.
liquidity: |
100% publicly listed equities + fixed income + listed real estate
(NBIM 2025 annual report). No private markets. Full liquidity.
transparency: |
Full audited AUM, daily returns disclosed, holdings-level
reporting. IFSWF full-compliance. LM index = 10.
sources:
- https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/about-the-fund/
- https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/the-economy/the-government-pension-fund/id1441/
# ── United Arab Emirates ──
# Multiple federal + emirate-level vehicles. ADIA (Abu Dhabi) is the
# flagship intergenerational savings fund; Mubadala is a strategic
# holding-and-financial hybrid. ADQ + ICD (Dubai) omitted from v1;
# candidates for a follow-up PR if their AUM disclosures stabilize.
- country: AE
fund: adia
display_name: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA)
wikipedia:
abbrev: ADIA
fund_name: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
classification:
# Phase 1E re-audit (Plan 2026-04-25-001): bumped from 0.3 → 0.4.
# ADIA's official mandate is intergenerational, but its
# ruler-discretionary deployment pattern (2009 Mubadala bailout
# precedent, recurring budget-support contributions to Abu Dhabi
# treasury) reflects higher empirical access than the 0.3
# "intergenerational" tier suggests. The 0.4 mid-tier value sits
# between intergenerational (0.3) and hybrid-constrained (0.5).
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.7
transparency: 0.5
rationale:
access: |
Official mandate is long-horizon intergenerational savings,
but ruler-discretionary deployment has been demonstrated:
Mubadala 2009 bailout precedent, periodic budget-support
contributions to Abu Dhabi treasury, strategic infusions
during Dubai's 2009 GCC crisis. Empirical access falls
between the strict intergenerational tier (0.3) and the
hybrid-constrained tier (0.5). Phase 1E re-audit bumped
the score from 0.3 → 0.4 to reflect this.
liquidity: |
ADIA 2024 review discloses ~55-70% public-market (equities +
bonds) allocation, balance in alternatives and real assets.
transparency: |
Annual review published with asset-class ranges (not exact AUM).
Partial IFSWF engagement. LM index = 6.
sources:
- https://www.adia.ae/en/review
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/abu-dhabi-investment-authority
- country: AE
fund: mubadala
display_name: Mubadala Investment Company
wikipedia:
fund_name: Mubadala Investment Company
classification:
# Phase 1E re-audit (Plan 2026-04-25-001): rubric flagged
# Mubadala's pre-PR access=0.4 as below the 0.5 hybrid-tier
# midpoint and transparency=0.6 as under-rated for an LM=10
# IFSWF full member. Both bumped to align with the rubric.
access: 0.5
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.7
rationale:
access: |
Strategic + financial hybrid mandate — combines economic-
diversification assets with financial investments. The 2024
ADQ-related corporate restructuring (consolidation of Abu
Dhabi state investment vehicles) reinforces Mubadala's
treatment as a hybrid-constrained 0.5-tier vehicle: deployable
for fiscal support, constrained by strategic holdings.
Access bumped from 0.4 → 0.5 in Phase 1E re-audit.
liquidity: |
Mixed: ~50% public equities + credit, ~50% private equity,
real estate, infrastructure (Mubadala 2024 annual report).
transparency: |
Audited AUM published, asset-mix disclosed annually. IFSWF
full member. LM index = 10. Bumped from 0.6 → 0.7 in
Phase 1E re-audit to align with the rubric tier (0.7 = audited
AUM + asset-class mix + returns disclosed annually).
sources:
- https://www.mubadala.com/en/annual-review
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/mubadala-investment-company
# Investment Corporation of Dubai — Dubai-government holding
# company. Owns Emirates Airlines, ENBD, Dubai Holdings, and
# significant Emaar / DEWA stakes. Distinct from ADIA (Abu Dhabi
# emirate) and Mubadala (Abu Dhabi strategic). Phase 1A addition.
- country: AE
fund: icd
display_name: Investment Corporation of Dubai (ICD)
wikipedia:
abbrev: ICD
fund_name: Investment Corporation of Dubai
aum_usd: 320000000000
aum_year: 2023
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.5
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.4
rationale:
access: |
Dubai-government holding company; finances Dubai-emirate
budget directly during shocks. 2009 GCC bailout precedent
when ICD-affiliated entities (Dubai World, Nakheel) were
actively rolled into broader fiscal support. Hybrid-
constrained 0.5 tier — deployment is mechanically possible
but constrained by strategic holdings (Emirates Airlines,
ENBD).
liquidity: |
Mixed portfolio: Emaar + ENBD + DEWA + Borse Dubai listed
equity stakes (~50% public market) balanced against
Emirates Airlines + Dubai Holdings real estate (~50%
private). 0.5 mid-liquidity tier.
transparency: |
ICD publishes consolidated audited financial highlights but
does not disclose holdings-level detail. LM index ~4.
Annual review available via icd.gov.ae but constituent
AUM disclosure is partial.
sources:
- https://www.icd.gov.ae/en/about-icd/our-portfolio/
- https://www.icd.gov.ae/en/news-and-publications/
# ADQ (Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company) — strategic
# investment vehicle established 2018, distinct from ADIA and
# Mubadala. Phase 1A addition.
- country: AE
fund: adq
display_name: Abu Dhabi Developmental Holding Company (ADQ)
wikipedia:
abbrev: ADQ
fund_name: ADQ
aum_usd: 199000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.5
liquidity: 0.4
transparency: 0.4
rationale:
access: |
Hybrid strategic-investment vehicle under Abu Dhabi
government control. Mandate covers economic diversification
+ strategic asset stewardship. Medium access for fiscal
support; access discipline closer to Mubadala than to ADIA's
long-horizon savings tier.
liquidity: |
Heavy in private equity, food + agriculture (Agthia, Modern
Bakery), real estate, healthcare, and energy. Limited public-
market exposure relative to ADIA. ~0.4 mid-low liquidity.
transparency: |
ADQ publishes AUM and asset-class summaries via corporate
press releases and select press disclosures (Reuters, FT
primary reporting). IFSWF observer-only. LM index ~4.
sources:
- https://www.adq.ae/about-us/
- https://www.adq.ae/news-and-insights/
# Emirates Investment Authority (EIA) — federal-level UAE wealth
# vehicle distinct from emirate-level (ADIA, ICD, ADQ, Mubadala)
# funds. Limited public disclosure — primary-source AUM not
# verifiable as of 2026-04-25; entry loaded for documentation but
# excluded from buffer scoring per data-integrity rule
# (`aum_verified: false`). Phase 1A addition; revisit when EIA
# publishes audited consolidated statements.
- country: AE
fund: eia
display_name: Emirates Investment Authority (EIA)
aum_verified: false
classification:
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.2
rationale:
access: |
Federal-level UAE reserves vehicle (cf. emirate-level ADIA/
ICD). Mandate covers federal fiscal stabilization for
emirate-fiscal-shock smoothing. Access is constrained by
federal/emirate political coordination; rated mid-low.
liquidity: |
Limited public disclosure; mix presumed to mirror federal-
reserves convention (majority public-market) but not
verified.
transparency: |
Limited public disclosure. Reuters cites federal-level AUM
figures but EIA itself does not publish audited annual
statements at the level of ADIA / Mubadala / ICD. LM index
~2. Marked `aum_verified: false` until primary disclosure
materializes.
sources:
- https://www.eia.gov.ae/en/
# ── Saudi Arabia ──
# PIF combines stabilization, strategic-diversification, and domestic
# development mandates. Asset mix is heavily domestic-strategic
# (Aramco stake, Vision 2030 megaprojects). Limited IFSWF engagement.
- country: SA
fund: pif
display_name: Public Investment Fund (PIF)
wikipedia:
abbrev: PIF
fund_name: Public Investment Fund
classification:
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.4
transparency: 0.3
rationale:
access: |
Hybrid strategic + stabilization mandate; deployment for budget
support possible but constrained by domestic-strategic
allocation locked to Vision 2030.
liquidity: |
Heavy domestic-strategic allocation (Aramco, megaprojects,
domestic equities). Public-market share estimated ~40%.
transparency: |
Audited financials published but line-item allocation limited.
Joined IFSWF observer status; not full member. LM index ~ 4.
sources:
- https://www.pif.gov.sa/en/about-pif/annual-report/
- https://www.ifswf.org/members
# ── Kuwait ──
# KIA's audited $1.072T AUM is split here per Kuwaiti Public Funds
# Law and Decree 106 of 1976 (FGF) into two sleeves with materially
# different access profiles. Phase 1B addition (Plan 2026-04-25-001).
# Combined-AUM modeling overstated the crisis-deployable balance by
# ~18× (2026-04-24 audit) because GRF's `access=0.7` haircut was
# applied to the full $1.072T, when ~95% of that AUM is FGF and
# constitutionally gated. The split correctly attributes GRF's
# stabilization mandate to its own ~5% sleeve and FGF's
# statutorily-gated long-horizon profile to the remaining ~95%.
- country: KW
fund: kia-grf
display_name: Kuwait Investment Authority — General Reserve Fund (KIA-GRF)
wikipedia:
# Wikipedia/SWFI report the COMBINED audited KIA AUM; the loader
# multiplies by aum_pct_of_audited (5% for GRF, 95% for FGF) to
# recover per-sleeve effective balance. No Wikipedia abbrev
# specifically for GRF.
abbrev: KIA
fund_name: Kuwait Investment Authority
classification:
access: 0.7
liquidity: 0.8
transparency: 0.4
aum_pct_of_audited: 0.05
rationale:
access: |
Kuwaiti Public Finance Law explicitly directs GRF to absorb
oil-revenue shortfalls and finance budget deficits. Drained
to negative balance during 2020 COVID shock; refilled by
domestic + international borrowing. The 2020 deployment
required active Council-of-Ministers authorization (NOT
post-hoc/symbolic), which keeps GRF in the rubric's 0.7
"Explicit stabilization with rule" tier — a legislated
mechanism with deployment precedent — rather than the 0.9
"automatic stabilization" tier (which requires
rule-triggered automatic deployment, e.g. Chile ESSF).
The original combined-KIA `access=0.7` matched this tier;
kept here for the GRF sleeve.
liquidity: |
Predominantly public-market (~75-85% listed equities + fixed
income). Private-asset sleeve is a minority allocation.
Same portfolio profile as KIA-FGF — classification independent.
transparency: |
Financials reported to National Assembly but sealed from
public; partial IFSWF engagement. LM index = 6.
aum_pct_of_audited: |
GRF receives oil revenues and finances the budget; its
steady-state balance is roughly 5% of KIA's combined audited
AUM. The fraction varies year-to-year (negative in 2020-21
during COVID, refilled by 2022-23). Using a representative
steady-state share avoids dependency on year-specific
balances that aren't separately disclosed.
sources:
- https://www.kia.gov.kw/en/
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/kuwait-investment-authority
- country: KW
fund: kia-fgf
display_name: Kuwait Investment Authority — Future Generations Fund (KIA-FGF)
wikipedia:
abbrev: KIA
fund_name: Kuwait Investment Authority
classification:
access: 0.20
liquidity: 0.8
transparency: 0.4
aum_pct_of_audited: 0.95
rationale:
access: |
FGF withdrawals require Council-of-Ministers + Emir decree
(Decree 106 of 1976; 2020 amendment did NOT remove the gate,
only added an emergency-pathway provision used once during
COVID for a small, capped draw). Not legally accessible for
ordinary stabilization. Score 0.20 reflects: (a) below the
0.3 "intergenerational/ruler-discretionary" tier because
the gate is bicameral-equivalent + statutory, (b) above
the 0.1 "sanctions/frozen" tier because the gate has been
crossed in extremis. Anchors a NEW rubric tier between 0.1
and 0.3 (see swf-classification-rubric.md "Statutorily-gated
long-horizon" tier added in Phase 1B).
liquidity: |
Same portfolio profile as GRF; classification independent.
transparency: |
Same portfolio profile as GRF; reported to National Assembly
but sealed from public; partial IFSWF engagement. LM index = 6.
aum_pct_of_audited: |
FGF receives 10% of state revenue annually + accumulated
returns; in steady state holds ~95% of KIA's combined
audited AUM. The 5/95 split is per Kuwait's Public Funds
Law and is the canonical proportion published by KIA in
IFSWF disclosures.
sources:
- https://www.kia.gov.kw/en/
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/kuwait-investment-authority
# ── Qatar ──
- country: QA
fund: qia
display_name: Qatar Investment Authority (QIA)
wikipedia:
abbrev: QIA
fund_name: Qatar Investment Authority
classification:
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.6
transparency: 0.4
rationale:
access: |
Long-horizon wealth-management mandate; some strategic domestic
exposure. Deployment for budget support requires amiri decree.
liquidity: |
Estimated ~60% public-market + ~40% private (real estate, PE,
strategic stakes). Mid-liquid.
transparency: |
Limited public disclosure. IFSWF full member with audited
filings to the secretariat. LM index = 5.
sources:
- https://www.qia.qa/en/
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/qatar-investment-authority
# ── Singapore ──
# Two distinct vehicles with different mandates. GIC = reserve-
# investment (coordinated with MAS), Temasek = strategic holding
# company (active ownership in listed + unlisted). Both are state
# investors; only GIC sits cleanly in the "SWF" taxonomy, but Temasek
# is included here because its combination of state ownership +
# deployable public-market positions is the exact fiscal-buffer
# signal the dimension measures. Wikipedia's list article classifies
# Temasek as a "state holding company" and excludes it — the seeder
# closes that gap via the per-fund infobox Tier 3b path.
- country: SG
fund: gic
display_name: Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC)
wikipedia:
abbrev: GIC
fund_name: GIC Private Limited
classification:
access: 0.6
liquidity: 0.9
transparency: 0.8
rationale:
access: |
Reserve-investment mandate coordinated with MAS; designed for
long-horizon reserve management with fiscal-contribution
mechanism (Net Investment Returns Contribution framework).
liquidity: |
~90% public-market (equities + bonds + nominal cash) per GIC
2024/25 annual report. High liquidity.
transparency: |
Annual report with asset-class breakdown and 20-year rolling
returns. Does not disclose exact AUM. IFSWF full member.
LM index = 8.
sources:
- https://www.gic.com.sg/annual-report
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/gic-private-limited
- country: SG
fund: temasek
display_name: Temasek Holdings
wikipedia:
fund_name: Temasek Holdings
# Temasek is not listed on Wikipedia's /wiki/List_of_sovereign_wealth_funds
# (Wikipedia editorially classifies it as a state holding company, not an
# SWF — the practitioner classification is contested). Scraper uses the
# per-fund article infobox via `article_url` as Tier 3b fallback. Infobox
# reports AUM in SGD, which the seeder converts via its baked-in FX table.
article_url: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temasek_Holdings
classification:
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.9
rationale:
access: |
Strategic holding company with active ownership. Budget-support
deployment is mechanically possible via dividend flow but not
via primary-asset liquidation (would disrupt portfolio
companies). Medium-low access.
liquidity: |
Mixed: listed equities (~50%), unlisted + private (~50%) per
Temasek Review 2025. Mid-liquid.
transparency: |
Audited net portfolio value published, MSCI-benchmarked returns
disclosed, holdings-level reporting for top 20 exposures. LM
index = 10.
sources:
- https://www.temasekreview.com.sg/
- https://www.temasek.com.sg/en/our-financials
# ── China ──
# Phase 1C addition (Plan 2026-04-25-001). Three CN sovereign-wealth
# vehicles tracked by SWFI/IFSWF; SAFE Investment Co is excluded
# from the buffer dim because its AUM is part of the SAFE umbrella
# consolidated FX reserves (already counted in reserveAdequacy /
# liquidReserveAdequacy).
- country: CN
fund: cic
display_name: China Investment Corporation (CIC)
wikipedia:
abbrev: CIC
fund_name: China Investment Corporation
aum_usd: 1350000000000
aum_year: 2023
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.3
rationale:
access: |
Hybrid strategic-investment vehicle with PBOC + MOF
coordination required for major redeployment. Long-horizon
external mandate (CIC International) plus state-directed
domestic financial holdings (Central Huijin) — flexible in
principle but politically constrained. 0.4 mid-tier.
liquidity: |
~50% public-market (listed equities + bonds via CIC
International), ~50% private (Central Huijin domestic banking
stakes, alternative investments). Mid-liquidity.
transparency: |
Annual report publishes AUM and asset-class summary; holdings-
level disclosure limited to large public stakes (13F-equivalent
for U.S. holdings). LM index ~3-4.
sources:
- http://www.china-inv.cn/en/
- https://www.swfinstitute.org/profile/cic
- country: CN
fund: nssf
display_name: National Council for Social Security Fund (NSSF)
wikipedia:
fund_name: National Council for Social Security Fund
aum_usd: 400000000000
aum_year: 2023
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.20
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.4
rationale:
access: |
Pension-purpose: NSSF holdings are statutorily reserved for
social-security payment obligations. Withdrawals for
non-pension fiscal stabilization are not permitted under
current Chinese law. Maps to the 0.20 "statutorily-gated
long-horizon" tier added in Phase 1B (KIA-FGF analogue).
liquidity: |
Mix of listed equities, fixed income, and strategic
unlisted holdings (banking IPO seedings). Mid-liquidity.
transparency: |
Annual report publishes AUM totals + broad allocation; per-
holding disclosure limited.
sources:
- http://www.ssf.gov.cn/
- https://www.swfinstitute.org/profile/nssf
- country: CN
fund: safe-ic
display_name: SAFE Investment Company Limited
aum_usd: 417000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.5
liquidity: 0.7
transparency: 0.3
excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: true
rationale:
access: |
Subsidiary of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange
(SAFE); manages a portion of China's FX reserves abroad.
Documentation-only — see excluded rationale.
liquidity: |
Predominantly listed equities + sovereign bonds (FX-reserve-
like portfolio composition).
transparency: |
Limited public disclosure; AUM tracked via SWFI third-party
estimates. LM index ~2.
excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: |
SAFE Investment Co's AUM is part of China's State Administration
of Foreign Exchange consolidated reserves. Including it in the
SWF buffer would double-count against `reserveAdequacy` /
`liquidReserveAdequacy`, both of which already capture
SAFE-managed FX reserves. Documentation-only entry; excluded
from buffer scoring.
sources:
- https://www.swfinstitute.org/profile/safe-investment-company
# ── Hong Kong ──
# HKMA Exchange Fund. Backing Portfolio is reserves-equivalent
# (already in reserveAdequacy); Investment Portfolio + Future Fund
# branch could be SWF-relevant but the consolidated AUM is
# reported as one figure. Excluded from buffer to avoid double-
# counting against HK monetary-authority reserves.
- country: HK
fund: hkma-ef
display_name: HKMA Exchange Fund
aum_usd: 498000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.7
liquidity: 0.9
transparency: 0.7
excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: true
rationale:
access: |
Statutory mandate: maintain HKD peg + back banking system.
High access for monetary stabilization; stabilization is the
primary mandate. Documentation-only — see excluded rationale.
liquidity: |
Predominantly listed equities + sovereign bonds + USD cash.
Highly liquid by design (Backing Portfolio is reserves).
transparency: |
HKMA publishes monthly Exchange Fund balance sheet + annual
report. LM index ~8.
excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: |
HKMA Exchange Fund's Backing Portfolio is reserves-equivalent
and is captured under `reserveAdequacy` / `liquidReserveAdequacy`.
Investment Portfolio + Future Fund are not separately disclosed
at AUM level. To avoid double-counting, excluded from buffer.
Implementation-Time Unknown #2 in the parent plan flagged this
for follow-up: when HKMA discloses Investment Portfolio AUM
separately, the Investment Portfolio sleeve could be added as
a non-excluded entry.
sources:
- https://www.hkma.gov.hk/eng/data-publications-and-research/
# ── South Korea ──
- country: KR
fund: kic
display_name: Korea Investment Corporation (KIC)
wikipedia:
abbrev: KIC
fund_name: Korea Investment Corporation
aum_usd: 182000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.3
liquidity: 0.7
transparency: 0.7
rationale:
access: |
Long-horizon mandate; KIC manages assets under MOEF + Bank
of Korea entrustment but does not have an explicit
stabilization mandate. Withdrawals require entrustment
agreement modification. Intergenerational tier.
liquidity: |
~70% public-market (listed equities + sovereign + corporate
bonds), ~30% alternatives (private equity, real estate,
infrastructure, hedge funds).
transparency: |
IFSWF full member. Annual report published with detailed
asset allocation, returns, and partial holdings. LM index ~7.
sources:
- https://www.kic.kr/en/
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/korea-investment-corporation
# ── Oman ──
# OIA established 2020 by merging State General Reserve Fund (SGRF)
# + Oman Investment Fund (OIF). IFSWF member; rubric pre-flagged
# as "Shippable". Phase 1D addition.
- country: OM
fund: oia
display_name: Oman Investment Authority (OIA)
wikipedia:
abbrev: OIA
fund_name: Oman Investment Authority
aum_usd: 50000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.5
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.5
rationale:
access: |
Hybrid mandate: SGRF (now part of OIA) historically funded
budget shortfalls during oil downturns; OIF (now part of OIA)
was the strategic vehicle. Combined OIA inherits both;
deployment for fiscal support is mechanically possible but
coordinated through Ministry of Finance. Mid-tier hybrid.
liquidity: |
Mixed: external public-market (managed by external managers)
+ domestic strategic stakes + alternative investments. Mid.
transparency: |
OIA publishes annual review post-2020 merger; IFSWF full
member. LM index ~6.
sources:
- https://www.oia.gov.om/
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/oman-investment-authority
# ── Bahrain ──
- country: BH
fund: mumtalakat
display_name: Mumtalakat Holding Company
wikipedia:
fund_name: Mumtalakat Holding Company
aum_usd: 19000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.4
liquidity: 0.4
transparency: 0.6
rationale:
access: |
Bahraini state strategic-investment vehicle. Holdings
concentrated in domestic banking (BBK, NBB), aluminum
(ALBA), telecoms (Batelco). Deployable for fiscal support
via dividend flow but not via primary-asset liquidation
without disrupting strategic positions.
liquidity: |
Domestic strategic holdings + foreign-listed equity stakes.
Mid-low liquidity.
transparency: |
Audited annual report, asset-class disclosures. IFSWF
member. LM index ~7.
sources:
- https://www.mumtalakat.bh/en
- https://www.ifswf.org/member-profiles/mumtalakat-holding-company
# ── Timor-Leste ──
# Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste — rubric flagged as
# "high-transparency textbook fit". High-transparency fund
# benchmark; Banco Central de Timor-Leste publishes monthly
# statements + annual reports. Phase 1D addition.
- country: TL
fund: petroleum-fund
display_name: Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste
aum_usd: 22000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.7
liquidity: 0.9
transparency: 0.9
rationale:
access: |
Norwegian-model petroleum fund: fiscal-rule-based annual
Estimated Sustainable Income (ESI) drawdown for budget
support. Statutorily codified deployment trigger; closer
to GPFG's rule-based stabilization than to KIA-FGF's
long-horizon lock. 0.7 explicit-stabilization tier.
liquidity: |
~60% sovereign bonds, ~40% global equities. Highly liquid.
transparency: |
Monthly statements published by Banco Central de Timor-Leste;
annual report with full holdings disclosure. LM index ~9.
sources:
- https://www.bancocentral.tl/en/petroleum-fund
- https://www.swfinstitute.org/profile/petroleum-fund-of-timor-leste
# ── Australia ──
- country: AU
fund: future-fund
display_name: Australian Future Fund
wikipedia:
fund_name: Future Fund (Australia)
aum_usd: 192000000000
aum_year: 2024
aum_verified: true
classification:
access: 0.3
liquidity: 0.5
transparency: 0.8
rationale:
access: |
Established 2006 to fund Commonwealth of Australia
unfunded superannuation liabilities. Statutorily restricted
from drawdown until 2027 (originally — extended). Long-
horizon savings tier. Australian fiscal practice has used
Future Fund AUM as a buffer signal in budget discussions
but no operational drawdown has occurred for stabilization.
liquidity: |
Mixed: ~30% listed equities, ~25% alternatives, ~20% bonds,
~15% real estate + infrastructure, ~10% private equity.
Mid-liquidity.
transparency: |
Quarterly portfolio updates with asset-class breakdowns;
annual report with detailed performance + holdings discussion.
LM index ~9.
sources:
- https://www.futurefund.gov.au/
- https://www.swfinstitute.org/profile/australia-future-fund
# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# CANDIDATES DEFERRED FROM V1
# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
#
# Funds considered but not scored in v1. Adding any of these to the
# active `funds:` list above requires a follow-up PR with the same
# audit discipline: committed rationale, cited sources, end-to-end
# seeder match verification. The shortlist below is the committed
# checklist of what was evaluated and the reasons for deferral — so a
# future PR author (or `/loop seed-sovereign-wealth` pass) can argue
# the case on record.
#
# China: CIC (China Investment Corporation), SAFE Investment Co.
# — size is consequential (both >$1T) but political-economy
# classification is contested, and Wikipedia's list
# article bundles both under PRC policy banks. Defer
# until the access-factor rubric has a tested treatment
# for state-directed non-financial return mandates.
# Hong Kong: HKMA Exchange Fund — commonly classified as an FX
# reserve vehicle rather than an SWF. Out of scope for
# the fiscal-buffer dimension; revisit if the Exchange
# Fund's "Future Fund" branch expands materially.
# Russia: National Wealth Fund (NWF) — sanctions + asset-freeze
# make `access` effectively 0. Include only after a
# regime change that restores deployable liquidity.
# Azerbaijan: SOFAZ — well-documented, IFSWF member; shippable in
# the next manifest PR.
# Kazakhstan: Samruk-Kazyna (domestic strategic), NFRK (oil
# stabilization). Score separately; NFRK is the cleaner
# fit for the dimension.
# Libya: LIA — sanctions + asset-freeze; same exclusion as
# NWF. Revisit on sanctions change.
# Nigeria: NSIA (Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority) — IFSWF
# member, three-fund structure; shippable in a follow-up
# PR once the three sub-fund mandates are mapped.
# Angola: FSDEA — governance concerns historically. Defer until
# audited AUM disclosure stabilizes.
# Oman: OIA — merged SGRF + OIF 2020; IFSWF member. Shippable.
# Brunei: BIA — opaque, LM index ~2. Transparency coefficient
# would pin at ~0.1, heavily dampening any contribution;
# ship only if the rationale holds up to audit.
# Timor-Leste: Petroleum Fund — high transparency, textbook fit.
# Iran: NDFI (National Development Fund of Iran) — sanctions +
# access concerns; exclude from v1.
# Korea: KIC — FX reserve investor rather than stabilization
# fund; edge case on whether it belongs in this dim.
# Australia: Future Fund — well-documented, likely shippable.
# New Zealand: NZ Super Fund — well-documented, likely shippable.
# Ireland: ISIF — strategic-development mandate; low access,
# medium liquidity, high transparency — composite
# probably mid-low.
# Chile: ESSF (Economic and Social Stabilization Fund) —
# textbook stabilization fund; high priority for the
# next manifest PR.
# Panama, Trinidad & Tobago, Ghana, Senegal — smaller funds; include
# when the AUM / annual-imports ratio is non-negligible.
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