PR 3A of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. Construct correction for
re-export hubs: the SWF rawMonths denominator was gross imports, which
double-counted flow-through trade that never represents domestic
consumption. Net-imports fix:
rawMonths = aum / (grossImports × (1 − reexportShareOfImports)) × 12
applied to any country in the re-export share manifest. Countries NOT
in the manifest get gross imports unchanged (status-quo fallback).
Plan acceptance gates — verified synthetically in this PR:
Construct invariant. Two synthetic countries, same SWF, same gross
imports. A re-exports 60%; B re-exports 0%. Post-fix, A's rawMonths
is 2.5× B's (1/(1-0.6) = 2.5). Pinned in
tests/resilience-net-imports-denominator.test.mts.
SWF-heavy exporter invariant. Country with share ≤ 5%: rawMonths
lift < 5% vs baseline (negligible). Pinned.
What shipped
1. Re-export share manifest infrastructure.
- scripts/shared/reexport-share-manifest.yaml (new, empty) — schema
committed; entries populated in follow-up PRs with UNCTAD
Handbook citations.
- scripts/shared/reexport-share-loader.mjs (new) — loader + strict
validator, mirrors swf-manifest-loader.mjs.
- scripts/seed-recovery-reexport-share.mjs (new) — publishes
resilience:recovery:reexport-share:v1 from manifest. Empty
manifest = valid (no countries, no adjustment).
2. SWF seeder uses net-imports denominator.
- scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs exports computeNetImports(gross,
share) — pure helper, unit-tested.
- Per-country loop: reads manifest, computes denominatorImports,
applies to rawMonths math.
- Payload records annualImports (gross, audit), denominatorImports
(used in math), reexportShareOfImports (provenance).
- Summary log reports which countries had a net-imports adjustment
applied with source year.
3. Bundle wiring.
- Reexport-Share runs BEFORE Sovereign-Wealth in the recovery
bundle so the SWF seeder reads fresh re-export data in the same
cron tick.
- tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs expected-entries
updated (6 → 7) with ordering preservation.
4. Cache-prefix bump (per cache-prefix-bump-propagation-scope skill).
- RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX: v11 → v12
- RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY: v11 → v12
- RESILIENCE_HISTORY_KEY_PREFIX: v6 → v7 (history rotation prevents
30-day rolling window from mixing pre/post-fix scores and
manufacturing false "falling" trends on deploy day).
- Source of truth: server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts
- Mirrored in: scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs,
scripts/validate-resilience-correlation.mjs,
scripts/backtest-resilience-outcomes.mjs,
scripts/validate-resilience-backtest.mjs,
scripts/benchmark-resilience-external.mjs, api/health.js
- Test literals bumped in 4 test files (26 line edits).
- EXTENDED tests/resilience-cache-keys-health-sync.test.mts with
a parity pass that reads every known mirror file and asserts
both (a) canonical prefix present AND (b) no stale v<older>
literals in non-comment code. Found one legacy log-line that
still referenced v9 (scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs:342)
and refactored it to use the RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY
constant so future bumps self-update.
Explicitly NOT in this PR
- liquidReserveAdequacy denominator fix. The plan's PR 3A wording
mentions both dims, but the RESERVES ratio (WB FI.RES.TOTL.MO) is a
PRE-COMPUTED WB series; applying a post-hoc net-imports adjustment
mixes WB's denominator year with our manifest-year, and the math
change belongs in PR 3B (unified liquidity) where the α calibration
is explicit. This PR stays scoped to sovereignFiscalBuffer.
- Live re-export share entries. The manifest ships EMPTY in this PR;
entries with UNCTAD citations are one-per-PR follow-ups so each
figure is individually auditable.
Verified
- tests/resilience-net-imports-denominator.test.mts — 9 pass (construct
contract: 2.5× ratio gate, monotonicity, boundary rejections,
backward-compat on missing manifest entry, cohort-proportionality,
SWF-heavy-exporter-unchanged)
- tests/reexport-share-loader.test.mts — 7 pass (committed-manifest
shape + 6 schema-violation rejections)
- tests/resilience-cache-keys-health-sync.test.mts — 5 pass (existing 3
+ 2 new parity checks across all mirror files)
- tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs — 17 pass (expected
entries bumped to 7)
- npm run test:data — 6714 pass / 0 fail
- npm run typecheck / typecheck:api — green
- npm run lint / lint:md — clean
Deployment notes
Score + ranking + history cache prefixes all bump in the same deploy.
Per established v10→v11 precedent (and the cache-prefix-bump-
propagation-scope skill):
- Score / ranking: 6h TTL — the new prefix populates via the Railway
resilience-scores cron within one tick.
- History: 30d ring — the v7 ring starts empty; the first 30 days
post-deploy lack baseline points, so trend / change30d will read as
"no change" until v7 accumulates a window.
- Legacy v11 keys can be deleted from Redis at any time post-deploy
(no reader references them). Leaving them in place costs storage
but does no harm.
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