mirror of
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db6a4a2763
* feat(correlation): server-side correlation engine seed + bootstrap hydration Move correlation card computation from client-side (per-browser, 10-30s delay) to server-side (Railway cron, instant via bootstrap). Seed script reads 8 Redis keys, runs 4 adapter signal collectors (military, escalation, economic, disaster), clusters/scores/generates cards, writes to Redis with 10min TTL. - New: scripts/seed-correlation.mjs (pure JS port of correlation engine) - bootstrap.js: add correlationCards to FAST_KEYS tier - health.js + seed-health.js: register for monitoring (maxStaleMin: 15) - CorrelationPanel: consume bootstrap on construction, show "Analyzing..." only after live engine has run (not for bootstrap-only cards) - _seed-utils.mjs: support opts.recordCount override (function or number) * fix(correlation): stale timestamp fallback + coordinate-based country resolution P1: news stories lacked per-story pubDate, causing Date.now() fallback on every seed run. Now _clustering.mjs propagates pubDate through to enrichedStories, and seed-correlation reads s.pubDate then generatedAt. P2: normalizeToCode dropped signals with unparseable country names. Added centroid-based coordinate fallback (haversine nearest-match within 800km) matching the live engine's getCountryAtCoordinates behavior. * fix(correlation): add 11 missing country centroids to coordinate fallback CI, CR, CV, CY, GA, IS, LA, SZ, TL, TT, XK were in the normalization maps but missing from COUNTRY_CENTROIDS, causing coordinate-only signals in those countries to be misclassified or dropped during bootstrap. * fix(correlation): align protest/outage field names with actual Redis schema Codex review P1 findings: seed-correlation read wrong field names from Redis data. Protests (unrest:events:v1): p.time -> p.occurredAt, p.lat/lon -> p.location.latitude/longitude, severity enum SEVERITY_LEVEL_* mapping. Outages (infra:outages:v1): o.pubDate -> o.detectedAt, o.lat/lon -> o.location.latitude/longitude, severity enum OUTAGE_SEVERITY_* mapping. Both escalation and disaster adapters updated. Old field names kept as fallbacks for data shape compatibility.
794 lines
34 KiB
JavaScript
794 lines
34 KiB
JavaScript
#!/usr/bin/env node
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import { loadEnvFile, runSeed, getRedisCredentials } from './_seed-utils.mjs';
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loadEnvFile(import.meta.url);
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const CANONICAL_KEY = 'correlation:cards-bootstrap:v1';
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const CACHE_TTL = 600;
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const INPUT_KEYS = [
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'military:flights:v1',
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'military:flights:stale:v1',
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'unrest:events:v1',
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'infra:outages:v1',
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'seismology:earthquakes:v1',
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'market:stocks-bootstrap:v1',
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'market:commodities-bootstrap:v1',
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'market:crypto:v1',
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'news:insights:v1',
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];
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async function fetchInputData() {
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const { url, token } = getRedisCredentials();
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const pipeline = INPUT_KEYS.map(k => ['GET', k]);
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const resp = await fetch(`${url}/pipeline`, {
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method: 'POST',
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headers: { Authorization: `Bearer ${token}`, 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
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body: JSON.stringify(pipeline),
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signal: AbortSignal.timeout(10_000),
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});
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if (!resp.ok) throw new Error(`Redis pipeline: HTTP ${resp.status}`);
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const results = await resp.json();
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const data = {};
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for (let i = 0; i < INPUT_KEYS.length; i++) {
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const raw = results[i]?.result;
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if (raw) {
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try { data[INPUT_KEYS[i]] = JSON.parse(raw); } catch { /* skip */ }
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}
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}
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return data;
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}
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// ── Haversine ───────────────────────────────────────────────
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function haversineKm(lat1, lon1, lat2, lon2) {
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const R = 6371;
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const dLat = ((lat2 - lat1) * Math.PI) / 180;
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const dLon = ((lon2 - lon1) * Math.PI) / 180;
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const a =
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Math.sin(dLat / 2) ** 2 +
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Math.cos((lat1 * Math.PI) / 180) *
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Math.cos((lat2 * Math.PI) / 180) *
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Math.sin(dLon / 2) ** 2;
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return R * 2 * Math.atan2(Math.sqrt(a), Math.sqrt(1 - a));
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}
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// ── Country Name Resolution ─────────────────────────────────
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const COUNTRY_NAME_TO_ISO2 = {
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'afghanistan': 'AF', 'albania': 'AL', 'algeria': 'DZ', 'angola': 'AO',
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'argentina': 'AR', 'armenia': 'AM', 'australia': 'AU', 'austria': 'AT',
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'azerbaijan': 'AZ', 'bahrain': 'BH', 'bangladesh': 'BD', 'belarus': 'BY',
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'belgium': 'BE', 'bolivia': 'BO', 'bosnia and herzegovina': 'BA',
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'brazil': 'BR', 'bulgaria': 'BG', 'burkina faso': 'BF', 'burma': 'MM',
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'cambodia': 'KH', 'cameroon': 'CM', 'canada': 'CA', 'chad': 'TD',
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'chile': 'CL', 'china': 'CN', 'colombia': 'CO', 'congo': 'CG',
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'costa rica': 'CR', 'croatia': 'HR', 'cuba': 'CU', 'cyprus': 'CY',
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'czech republic': 'CZ', 'czechia': 'CZ',
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'democratic republic of the congo': 'CD', 'dr congo': 'CD', 'drc': 'CD',
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'denmark': 'DK', 'djibouti': 'DJ', 'dominican republic': 'DO',
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'ecuador': 'EC', 'egypt': 'EG', 'el salvador': 'SV', 'eritrea': 'ER',
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'estonia': 'EE', 'ethiopia': 'ET', 'finland': 'FI', 'france': 'FR',
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'gabon': 'GA', 'georgia': 'GE', 'germany': 'DE', 'ghana': 'GH',
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'greece': 'GR', 'guatemala': 'GT', 'guinea': 'GN', 'haiti': 'HT',
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'honduras': 'HN', 'hungary': 'HU', 'iceland': 'IS', 'india': 'IN',
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'indonesia': 'ID', 'iran': 'IR', 'iraq': 'IQ', 'ireland': 'IE',
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'israel': 'IL', 'italy': 'IT', 'ivory coast': 'CI', "cote d'ivoire": 'CI',
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'jamaica': 'JM', 'japan': 'JP', 'jordan': 'JO', 'kazakhstan': 'KZ',
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'kenya': 'KE', 'kosovo': 'XK', 'kuwait': 'KW', 'kyrgyzstan': 'KG',
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'laos': 'LA', 'latvia': 'LV', 'lebanon': 'LB', 'libya': 'LY',
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'lithuania': 'LT', 'madagascar': 'MG', 'malawi': 'MW', 'malaysia': 'MY',
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'mali': 'ML', 'mauritania': 'MR', 'mexico': 'MX', 'moldova': 'MD',
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'mongolia': 'MN', 'montenegro': 'ME', 'morocco': 'MA', 'mozambique': 'MZ',
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'myanmar': 'MM', 'namibia': 'NA', 'nepal': 'NP', 'netherlands': 'NL',
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'new zealand': 'NZ', 'nicaragua': 'NI', 'niger': 'NE', 'nigeria': 'NG',
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'north korea': 'KP', 'north macedonia': 'MK', 'norway': 'NO',
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'oman': 'OM', 'pakistan': 'PK', 'palestine': 'PS', 'panama': 'PA',
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'papua new guinea': 'PG', 'paraguay': 'PY', 'peru': 'PE',
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'philippines': 'PH', 'poland': 'PL', 'portugal': 'PT', 'qatar': 'QA',
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'romania': 'RO', 'russia': 'RU', 'rwanda': 'RW', 'saudi arabia': 'SA',
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'senegal': 'SN', 'serbia': 'RS', 'sierra leone': 'SL', 'singapore': 'SG',
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'slovakia': 'SK', 'slovenia': 'SI', 'somalia': 'SO', 'south africa': 'ZA',
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'south korea': 'KR', 'south sudan': 'SS', 'spain': 'ES',
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'sri lanka': 'LK', 'sudan': 'SD', 'sweden': 'SE', 'switzerland': 'CH',
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'syria': 'SY', 'taiwan': 'TW', 'tajikistan': 'TJ', 'tanzania': 'TZ',
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'thailand': 'TH', 'togo': 'TG', 'trinidad and tobago': 'TT',
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'tunisia': 'TN', 'turkey': 'TR', 'turkmenistan': 'TM', 'uganda': 'UG',
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'ukraine': 'UA', 'united arab emirates': 'AE', 'uae': 'AE',
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'united kingdom': 'GB', 'uk': 'GB', 'united states': 'US', 'usa': 'US',
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'uruguay': 'UY', 'uzbekistan': 'UZ', 'venezuela': 'VE', 'vietnam': 'VN',
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'yemen': 'YE', 'zambia': 'ZM', 'zimbabwe': 'ZW',
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'east timor': 'TL', 'cape verde': 'CV', 'swaziland': 'SZ',
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'republic of the congo': 'CG',
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};
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const ISO3_TO_ISO2 = {
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'AFG': 'AF', 'ALB': 'AL', 'DZA': 'DZ', 'AGO': 'AO', 'ARG': 'AR',
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'ARM': 'AM', 'AUS': 'AU', 'AUT': 'AT', 'AZE': 'AZ', 'BHR': 'BH',
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'BGD': 'BD', 'BLR': 'BY', 'BEL': 'BE', 'BOL': 'BO', 'BIH': 'BA',
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'BRA': 'BR', 'BGR': 'BG', 'BFA': 'BF', 'KHM': 'KH', 'CMR': 'CM',
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'CAN': 'CA', 'TCD': 'TD', 'CHL': 'CL', 'CHN': 'CN', 'COL': 'CO',
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'COG': 'CG', 'CRI': 'CR', 'HRV': 'HR', 'CUB': 'CU', 'CYP': 'CY',
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'CZE': 'CZ', 'COD': 'CD', 'DNK': 'DK', 'DJI': 'DJ', 'DOM': 'DO',
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'ECU': 'EC', 'EGY': 'EG', 'SLV': 'SV', 'ERI': 'ER', 'EST': 'EE',
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'ETH': 'ET', 'FIN': 'FI', 'FRA': 'FR', 'GAB': 'GA', 'GEO': 'GE',
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'DEU': 'DE', 'GHA': 'GH', 'GRC': 'GR', 'GTM': 'GT', 'GIN': 'GN',
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'HTI': 'HT', 'HND': 'HN', 'HUN': 'HU', 'ISL': 'IS', 'IND': 'IN',
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'IDN': 'ID', 'IRN': 'IR', 'IRQ': 'IQ', 'IRL': 'IE', 'ISR': 'IL',
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'ITA': 'IT', 'CIV': 'CI', 'JAM': 'JM', 'JPN': 'JP', 'JOR': 'JO',
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'KAZ': 'KZ', 'KEN': 'KE', 'XKX': 'XK', 'KWT': 'KW', 'KGZ': 'KG',
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'LAO': 'LA', 'LVA': 'LV', 'LBN': 'LB', 'LBY': 'LY', 'LTU': 'LT',
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'MDG': 'MG', 'MWI': 'MW', 'MYS': 'MY', 'MLI': 'ML', 'MRT': 'MR',
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'MEX': 'MX', 'MDA': 'MD', 'MNG': 'MN', 'MNE': 'ME', 'MAR': 'MA',
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'MOZ': 'MZ', 'MMR': 'MM', 'NAM': 'NA', 'NPL': 'NP', 'NLD': 'NL',
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'NZL': 'NZ', 'NIC': 'NI', 'NER': 'NE', 'NGA': 'NG', 'PRK': 'KP',
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'MKD': 'MK', 'NOR': 'NO', 'OMN': 'OM', 'PAK': 'PK', 'PSE': 'PS',
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'PAN': 'PA', 'PNG': 'PG', 'PRY': 'PY', 'PER': 'PE', 'PHL': 'PH',
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'POL': 'PL', 'PRT': 'PT', 'QAT': 'QA', 'ROU': 'RO', 'RUS': 'RU',
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'RWA': 'RW', 'SAU': 'SA', 'SEN': 'SN', 'SRB': 'RS', 'SLE': 'SL',
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'SGP': 'SG', 'SVK': 'SK', 'SVN': 'SI', 'SOM': 'SO', 'ZAF': 'ZA',
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'KOR': 'KR', 'SSD': 'SS', 'ESP': 'ES', 'LKA': 'LK', 'SDN': 'SD',
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'SWE': 'SE', 'CHE': 'CH', 'SYR': 'SY', 'TWN': 'TW', 'TJK': 'TJ',
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'TZA': 'TZ', 'THA': 'TH', 'TGO': 'TG', 'TTO': 'TT', 'TUN': 'TN',
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'TUR': 'TR', 'TKM': 'TM', 'UGA': 'UG', 'UKR': 'UA', 'ARE': 'AE',
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'GBR': 'GB', 'USA': 'US', 'URY': 'UY', 'UZB': 'UZ', 'VEN': 'VE',
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'VNM': 'VN', 'YEM': 'YE', 'ZMB': 'ZM', 'ZWE': 'ZW',
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};
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const COUNTRY_CENTROIDS = {
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'AF':[33.9,67.7],'AL':[41.2,20.2],'DZ':[28.0,1.7],'AO':[-11.2,17.9],'AR':[-38.4,-63.6],
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'AM':[40.1,45.0],'AU':[-25.3,133.8],'AT':[47.5,14.6],'AZ':[40.1,47.6],'BH':[26.0,50.6],
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'BD':[23.7,90.4],'BY':[53.7,28.0],'BE':[50.5,4.5],'BO':[-16.3,-63.6],'BA':[43.9,17.7],
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'BR':[-14.2,-51.9],'BG':[42.7,25.5],'BF':[12.2,-1.6],'KH':[12.6,105.0],'CM':[7.4,12.4],
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'CA':[56.1,-106.3],'CF':[6.6,20.9],'TD':[15.5,18.7],'CL':[-35.7,-71.5],'CN':[35.9,104.2],
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'CO':[4.6,-74.3],'CD':[-4.0,21.8],'CG':[-0.2,15.8],'HR':[45.1,15.2],'CU':[21.5,-78.0],
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'CZ':[49.8,15.5],'DK':[56.3,9.5],'DJ':[11.6,43.1],'DO':[18.7,-70.2],'EC':[-1.8,-78.2],
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'EG':[26.8,30.8],'SV':[13.8,-88.9],'ER':[15.2,39.8],'EE':[58.6,25.0],'ET':[9.1,40.5],
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'FI':[61.9,25.7],'FR':[46.2,2.2],'GE':[42.3,43.4],'DE':[51.2,10.5],'GH':[7.9,-1.0],
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'GR':[39.1,21.8],'GT':[15.8,-90.2],'GN':[9.9,-9.7],'HT':[19.0,-72.3],'HN':[15.2,-86.2],
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'HU':[47.2,19.5],'IN':[20.6,79.0],'ID':[-0.8,113.9],'IR':[32.4,53.7],'IQ':[33.2,43.7],
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'IE':[53.1,-7.7],'IL':[31.0,34.9],'IT':[41.9,12.6],'JM':[18.1,-77.3],'JP':[36.2,138.3],
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'JO':[30.6,36.2],'KZ':[48.0,68.0],'KE':[-0.0,37.9],'KW':[29.3,47.5],'KG':[41.2,74.8],
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'LV':[56.9,24.1],'LB':[33.9,35.9],'LY':[26.3,17.2],'LT':[55.2,23.9],'MG':[-18.8,46.9],
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'MW':[-13.3,34.3],'MY':[4.2,101.9],'ML':[17.6,-4.0],'MR':[21.0,-10.9],'MX':[23.6,-102.6],
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'MD':[47.4,28.4],'MN':[46.9,103.8],'ME':[42.7,19.4],'MA':[31.8,-7.1],'MZ':[-18.7,35.5],
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'MM':[21.9,95.9],'NA':[-22.6,17.1],'NP':[28.4,84.1],'NL':[52.1,5.3],'NZ':[-40.9,174.9],
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'NI':[12.9,-85.2],'NE':[17.6,8.1],'NG':[9.1,8.7],'KP':[40.3,127.5],'MK':[41.5,21.7],
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'NO':[60.5,8.5],'OM':[21.5,55.9],'PK':[30.4,69.3],'PS':[31.9,35.2],'PA':[9.0,-79.5],
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'PG':[-6.3,143.9],'PY':[-23.4,-58.4],'PE':[-9.2,-75.0],'PH':[12.9,121.8],'PL':[51.9,19.1],
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'PT':[39.4,-8.2],'QA':[25.4,51.2],'RO':[45.9,25.0],'RU':[61.5,105.3],'RW':[-1.9,29.9],
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'SA':[23.9,45.1],'SN':[14.5,-14.5],'RS':[44.0,21.0],'SL':[8.5,-11.8],'SG':[1.4,103.8],
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'SK':[48.7,19.7],'SI':[46.2,14.6],'SO':[5.2,46.2],'ZA':[-30.6,22.9],'KR':[35.9,127.8],
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'SS':[6.9,31.3],'ES':[40.5,-3.7],'LK':[7.9,80.8],'SD':[12.9,30.2],'SE':[60.1,18.6],
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'CH':[46.8,8.2],'SY':[35.0,38.5],'TW':[23.7,121.0],'TJ':[38.9,71.3],'TZ':[-6.4,34.9],
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'TH':[15.9,100.9],'TG':[8.6,1.2],'TN':[34.0,9.5],'TR':[39.0,35.2],'TM':[39.0,59.6],
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'UG':[1.4,32.3],'UA':[48.4,31.2],'AE':[23.4,53.8],'GB':[55.4,-3.4],'US':[37.1,-95.7],
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'UY':[-32.5,-55.8],'UZ':[41.4,64.6],'VE':[6.4,-66.6],'VN':[14.1,108.3],'YE':[15.6,48.5],
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'ZM':[-13.1,27.8],'ZW':[-19.0,29.2],
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'CI':[7.5,-5.5],'CR':[10.0,-84.0],'CV':[16.0,-24.0],'CY':[35.1,33.4],'GA':[-0.8,11.6],
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'IS':[64.9,-19.0],'LA':[19.9,102.5],'SZ':[-26.5,31.5],'TL':[-8.9,125.7],'TT':[10.4,-61.2],
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'XK':[42.6,20.9],
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};
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function nearestCountryByCoords(lat, lon) {
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if (lat == null || lon == null || (lat === 0 && lon === 0)) return undefined;
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let bestCode, bestDist = Infinity;
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for (const [code, [clat, clon]] of Object.entries(COUNTRY_CENTROIDS)) {
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const d = haversineKm(lat, lon, clat, clon);
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if (d < bestDist) { bestDist = d; bestCode = code; }
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}
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return bestDist < 800 ? bestCode : undefined;
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}
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function normalizeToCode(country, lat, lon) {
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if (country) {
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const t = country.trim();
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if (t.length === 2) return t.toUpperCase();
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if (t.length === 3) return ISO3_TO_ISO2[t.toUpperCase()] ?? undefined;
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const fromName = COUNTRY_NAME_TO_ISO2[t.toLowerCase()];
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if (fromName) return fromName;
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}
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return nearestCountryByCoords(lat, lon);
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}
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const COUNTRY_NAME_ENTRIES = Object.entries(COUNTRY_NAME_TO_ISO2)
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.filter(([name]) => name.length >= 4)
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.sort((a, b) => b[0].length - a[0].length)
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.map(([name, code]) => ({ name, code, regex: new RegExp(`\\b${name.replace(/[.*+?^${}()|[\]\\]/g, '\\$&')}\\b`, 'i') }));
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function matchCountryNamesInText(text) {
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const matched = [];
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let remaining = text.toLowerCase();
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for (const { code, regex } of COUNTRY_NAME_ENTRIES) {
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if (regex.test(remaining)) {
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matched.push(code);
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remaining = remaining.replace(regex, '');
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}
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}
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return matched;
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}
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// ── Adapter: Military ───────────────────────────────────────
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const STRIKE_TYPES = new Set(['fighter', 'bomber', 'attack']);
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const SUPPORT_TYPES = new Set(['tanker', 'awacs', 'surveillance', 'electronic_warfare']);
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function collectMilitarySignals(flights) {
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const signals = [];
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const now = Date.now();
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const windowMs = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
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for (const f of flights) {
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const ts = typeof f.lastSeen === 'number' ? f.lastSeen : (f.lastSeen ? new Date(f.lastSeen).getTime() : now);
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if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
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const isStrike = STRIKE_TYPES.has(f.aircraftType);
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const isSupport = SUPPORT_TYPES.has(f.aircraftType);
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const severity = isStrike ? 80 : isSupport ? 60 : 55;
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signals.push({
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type: 'military_flight',
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source: 'signal-aggregator',
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severity,
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lat: f.lat,
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lon: f.lon,
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country: f.operatorCountry,
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timestamp: ts,
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label: `${f.operator || ''} ${f.aircraftType || ''} ${f.callsign || ''}`.trim(),
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aircraftType: f.aircraftType,
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});
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}
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return signals;
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}
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function generateMilitaryTitle(cluster) {
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const types = new Set(cluster.map(s => s.type));
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const countries = [...new Set(cluster.map(s => s.country).filter(Boolean))];
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const countryLabel = countries.slice(0, 2).join('/') || 'Unknown region';
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const flightTypes = new Set(
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cluster.filter(s => s.type === 'military_flight').map(s => s.aircraftType).filter(Boolean),
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);
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const hasStrikePackage = [...STRIKE_TYPES].some(t => flightTypes.has(t)) &&
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[...SUPPORT_TYPES].some(t => flightTypes.has(t));
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if (hasStrikePackage) return `Strike packaging detected \u2014 ${countryLabel}`;
|
|
if (types.has('military_flight')) return `Military flight cluster \u2014 ${countryLabel}`;
|
|
return `Military activity convergence \u2014 ${countryLabel}`;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Adapter: Escalation ─────────────────────────────────────
|
|
const ESCALATION_KEYWORDS = /\b((?:military|armed|air)\s*(?:strike|attack|offensive)|invasion|bombing|missile|airstrike|shelling|drone\s+strike|war(?:fare)?|ceasefire|martial\s+law|armed\s+clash(?:es)?|gunfire|coup(?:\s+attempt)?|insurgent|rebel|militia|terror(?:ist|ism)|hostage|siege|blockade|mobiliz(?:ation|e)|escalat(?:ion|ing|e)|retaliat|deploy(?:ment|ed)|incursion|annex(?:ation|ed)|occupation|humanitarian\s+crisis|refugee|evacuat|nuclear|chemical\s+weapon|biological\s+weapon)\b/i;
|
|
|
|
function collectEscalationSignals(protests, outages, newsClusters) {
|
|
const signals = [];
|
|
const now = Date.now();
|
|
const windowMs = 48 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
|
|
|
|
for (const p of protests) {
|
|
const ts = typeof p.occurredAt === 'number' ? p.occurredAt : (p.occurredAt ? new Date(p.occurredAt).getTime() : now);
|
|
if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
|
|
const pLat = p.location?.latitude ?? p.lat;
|
|
const pLon = p.location?.longitude ?? p.lon;
|
|
const code = normalizeToCode(p.country, pLat, pLon);
|
|
if (!code) continue;
|
|
const severityMap = { SEVERITY_LEVEL_HIGH: 85, SEVERITY_LEVEL_MEDIUM: 55, SEVERITY_LEVEL_LOW: 30, high: 85, medium: 55, low: 30 };
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type: 'conflict_event',
|
|
source: 'signal-aggregator',
|
|
severity: severityMap[p.severity] ?? 40,
|
|
lat: pLat,
|
|
lon: pLon,
|
|
country: code,
|
|
timestamp: ts,
|
|
label: `${p.eventType || 'event'}: ${p.title || ''}`,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
for (const o of outages) {
|
|
const ts = typeof o.detectedAt === 'number' ? o.detectedAt : (o.detectedAt ? new Date(o.detectedAt).getTime() : now);
|
|
if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
|
|
const oLat = o.location?.latitude ?? o.lat;
|
|
const oLon = o.location?.longitude ?? o.lon;
|
|
if (oLat != null && oLon != null && oLat === 0 && oLon === 0) continue;
|
|
const code = normalizeToCode(o.country, oLat, oLon);
|
|
if (!code) continue;
|
|
const severityMap = { OUTAGE_SEVERITY_TOTAL: 90, OUTAGE_SEVERITY_MAJOR: 70, OUTAGE_SEVERITY_PARTIAL: 40, total: 90, major: 70, partial: 40 };
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type: 'escalation_outage',
|
|
source: 'signal-aggregator',
|
|
severity: severityMap[o.severity] ?? 30,
|
|
lat: oLat,
|
|
lon: oLon,
|
|
country: code,
|
|
timestamp: ts,
|
|
label: `${o.severity || ''} outage: ${o.title || ''}`,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
for (const c of newsClusters) {
|
|
if (!c.threat || c.threat.level === 'info' || c.threat.level === 'low') continue;
|
|
const ts = c.lastUpdated ?? now;
|
|
if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
|
|
if (!ESCALATION_KEYWORDS.test(c.primaryTitle)) continue;
|
|
const severity = c.threat.level === 'critical' ? 85 : c.threat.level === 'high' ? 65 : 45;
|
|
const matched = matchCountryNamesInText(c.primaryTitle);
|
|
const code = normalizeToCode(matched[0], c.lat, c.lon);
|
|
if (!code) continue;
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type: 'news_severity',
|
|
source: 'analysis-core',
|
|
severity,
|
|
lat: c.lat,
|
|
lon: c.lon,
|
|
country: code,
|
|
timestamp: ts,
|
|
label: c.primaryTitle,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const conflictCountries = new Set(
|
|
signals.filter(s => s.type === 'conflict_event').map(s => s.country).filter(Boolean),
|
|
);
|
|
return signals.filter(s => s.type !== 'escalation_outage' || conflictCountries.has(s.country));
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function generateEscalationTitle(cluster) {
|
|
const types = new Set(cluster.map(s => s.type));
|
|
const countries = [...new Set(cluster.map(s => s.country).filter(Boolean))];
|
|
const countryLabel = countries[0] || 'Unknown';
|
|
const parts = [];
|
|
if (types.has('conflict_event')) parts.push('conflict');
|
|
if (types.has('escalation_outage')) parts.push('comms disruption');
|
|
if (types.has('news_severity')) parts.push('news escalation');
|
|
return parts.length > 0
|
|
? `${parts.join(' + ')} \u2014 ${countryLabel}`
|
|
: `Escalation signals \u2014 ${countryLabel}`;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Adapter: Economic ───────────────────────────────────────
|
|
const SANCTIONS_KEYWORDS = /\b(sanction|tariff|embargo|trade\s+war|ban|restrict|block|seize|freeze\s+assets|export\s+control|blacklist|decouple|decoupl|subsid|dumping|countervail|quota|levy|excise|retaliat|currency\s+manipulat|capital\s+controls|swift|cbdc|petrodollar|de-?dollar|opec|cartel|price\s+cap|oil|crude|commodity|shortage|stockpile|strategic\s+reserve|supply\s+chain|rare\s+earth|chip\s+ban|semiconductor|economic\s+warfare|financial\s+weapon)\b/i;
|
|
const COMMODITY_SYMBOLS = new Set(['CL=F', 'GC=F', 'NG=F', 'SI=F', 'HG=F', 'ZW=F', 'BTC-USD', 'BZ=F', 'ETH-USD', 'KC=F', 'SB=F', 'CT=F', 'CC=F']);
|
|
const SIGNIFICANT_CHANGE_PCT = 1.5;
|
|
|
|
function collectEconomicSignals(markets, newsClusters) {
|
|
const signals = [];
|
|
const now = Date.now();
|
|
const windowMs = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
|
|
|
|
for (const m of markets) {
|
|
if (m.change == null || m.price == null) continue;
|
|
const absPct = Math.abs(m.change);
|
|
if (absPct < SIGNIFICANT_CHANGE_PCT) continue;
|
|
const isCommodity = COMMODITY_SYMBOLS.has(m.symbol);
|
|
const type = isCommodity ? 'commodity_spike' : 'market_move';
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type,
|
|
source: 'markets',
|
|
severity: Math.min(100, absPct * 10),
|
|
timestamp: now,
|
|
label: `${m.display ?? m.symbol} ${m.change > 0 ? '+' : ''}${m.change.toFixed(1)}%`,
|
|
symbol: m.symbol,
|
|
display: m.display,
|
|
change: m.change,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
for (const c of newsClusters) {
|
|
const ts = c.lastUpdated ?? now;
|
|
if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
|
|
if (!SANCTIONS_KEYWORDS.test(c.primaryTitle)) continue;
|
|
const severity = c.threat?.level === 'critical' ? 85 : c.threat?.level === 'high' ? 70 : 50;
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type: 'sanctions_news',
|
|
source: 'analysis-core',
|
|
severity,
|
|
timestamp: ts,
|
|
label: c.primaryTitle,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
return signals;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const KNOWN_ENTITIES = /\b(Iran|Russia|China|North Korea|Venezuela|Cuba|Syria|Myanmar|Belarus|Turkey|Saudi|OPEC|EU|USA?|United States|India)\b(?![A-Za-z])/i;
|
|
const GENERIC_ENTITY_KEYS = new Set([
|
|
'sanctions', 'trade', 'tariff', 'commodity', 'currency', 'energy',
|
|
'embargo', 'semiconductor', 'crypto', 'inflation',
|
|
]);
|
|
|
|
function generateEconomicTitle(cluster, entityKey) {
|
|
const types = new Set(cluster.map(s => s.type));
|
|
|
|
if (types.has('commodity_spike')) {
|
|
const spikes = cluster.filter(s => s.type === 'commodity_spike');
|
|
const names = spikes.map(s => s.display ?? s.symbol ?? s.label.split(' ')[0]).slice(0, 2);
|
|
const change = spikes[0]?.change;
|
|
const pctSuffix = change != null ? ` (${change > 0 ? '+' : ''}${change.toFixed(1)}%)` : '';
|
|
const base = `${names.join('/')} spike${pctSuffix}`;
|
|
if (types.has('sanctions_news')) return `${base} + sanctions`;
|
|
return base;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
if (types.has('sanctions_news')) {
|
|
const labels = cluster.filter(s => s.type === 'sanctions_news').map(s => s.label);
|
|
let qualifier = '';
|
|
for (const label of labels) {
|
|
const match = KNOWN_ENTITIES.exec(label);
|
|
if (match) { qualifier = match[1]; break; }
|
|
}
|
|
if (!qualifier && entityKey && !GENERIC_ENTITY_KEYS.has(entityKey)) {
|
|
qualifier = entityKey.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + entityKey.slice(1);
|
|
}
|
|
const sanctionsBase = qualifier ? `${qualifier} sanctions activity` : 'Sanctions activity';
|
|
if (types.has('market_move')) {
|
|
const movers = cluster.filter(s => s.type === 'market_move');
|
|
const moverNames = movers.map(s => s.display ?? s.symbol ?? s.label.split(' ')[0]).slice(0, 2);
|
|
return `${sanctionsBase} + ${moverNames.join('/')} disruption`;
|
|
}
|
|
return sanctionsBase;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
if (types.has('market_move')) {
|
|
const movers = cluster.filter(s => s.type === 'market_move');
|
|
const names = movers.map(s => s.display ?? s.symbol ?? s.label.split(' ')[0]).slice(0, 2);
|
|
return `Market disruption: ${names.join('/')}`;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const fallback = entityKey && !GENERIC_ENTITY_KEYS.has(entityKey)
|
|
? entityKey.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + entityKey.slice(1) : '';
|
|
return fallback ? `Economic convergence: ${fallback}` : 'Economic convergence detected';
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Adapter: Disaster ───────────────────────────────────────
|
|
function collectDisasterSignals(earthquakes, outages, protests) {
|
|
const signals = [];
|
|
const now = Date.now();
|
|
const windowMs = 96 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
|
|
|
|
for (const q of earthquakes) {
|
|
const ts = q.occurredAt ?? now;
|
|
if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
|
|
if (q.location?.latitude == null || q.location?.longitude == null) continue;
|
|
const severity = Math.min(100, Math.max(10, (q.magnitude - 1.5) * 17));
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type: 'earthquake',
|
|
source: 'usgs',
|
|
severity,
|
|
lat: q.location.latitude,
|
|
lon: q.location.longitude,
|
|
timestamp: ts,
|
|
label: `M${q.magnitude.toFixed(1)} \u2014 ${q.place}`,
|
|
magnitude: q.magnitude,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const conflictCountries = new Set(
|
|
(protests ?? [])
|
|
.filter(p => {
|
|
const ts = typeof p.occurredAt === 'number' ? p.occurredAt : (p.occurredAt ? new Date(p.occurredAt).getTime() : now);
|
|
return (now - ts) <= windowMs;
|
|
})
|
|
.map(p => p.country)
|
|
.filter(Boolean),
|
|
);
|
|
|
|
for (const o of outages) {
|
|
const ts = typeof o.detectedAt === 'number' ? o.detectedAt : (o.detectedAt ? new Date(o.detectedAt).getTime() : now);
|
|
if (now - ts > windowMs) continue;
|
|
if (o.country && conflictCountries.has(o.country)) continue;
|
|
const oLat = o.location?.latitude ?? o.lat;
|
|
const oLon = o.location?.longitude ?? o.lon;
|
|
if (oLat == null || oLon == null || (oLat === 0 && oLon === 0)) continue;
|
|
const severityMap = { OUTAGE_SEVERITY_TOTAL: 90, OUTAGE_SEVERITY_MAJOR: 70, OUTAGE_SEVERITY_PARTIAL: 40, total: 90, major: 70, partial: 40 };
|
|
signals.push({
|
|
type: 'infra_outage',
|
|
source: 'signal-aggregator',
|
|
severity: severityMap[o.severity] ?? 30,
|
|
lat: oLat,
|
|
lon: oLon,
|
|
country: o.country,
|
|
timestamp: ts,
|
|
label: `Infra outage: ${o.title || ''}`,
|
|
});
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
return signals;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function generateDisasterTitle(cluster) {
|
|
const types = new Set(cluster.map(s => s.type));
|
|
const parts = [];
|
|
if (types.has('earthquake')) {
|
|
const maxMag = Math.max(...cluster.filter(s => s.type === 'earthquake').map(s => s.magnitude ?? 0));
|
|
parts.push(`M${maxMag.toFixed(1)} seismic`);
|
|
}
|
|
if (types.has('infra_outage')) parts.push('infra disruption');
|
|
const quakePlace = cluster.find(s => s.type === 'earthquake')?.label?.split('\u2014')[1]?.trim();
|
|
return parts.length > 0
|
|
? `Disaster cascade: ${parts.join(' + ')}${quakePlace ? ` \u2014 ${quakePlace}` : ''}`
|
|
: 'Disaster convergence detected';
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
function clusterByProximity(signals, radiusKm) {
|
|
if (signals.length === 0) return [];
|
|
const DEG_PER_KM_LAT = 1 / 111;
|
|
const cellSizeLat = radiusKm * DEG_PER_KM_LAT;
|
|
const parent = signals.map((_, i) => i);
|
|
const find = (i) => {
|
|
while (parent[i] !== i) { parent[i] = parent[parent[i]]; i = parent[i]; }
|
|
return i;
|
|
};
|
|
const union = (a, b) => {
|
|
const ra = find(a), rb = find(b);
|
|
if (ra !== rb) parent[ra] = rb;
|
|
};
|
|
const grid = new Map();
|
|
const validIndices = [];
|
|
for (let i = 0; i < signals.length; i++) {
|
|
const s = signals[i];
|
|
if (s.lat == null || s.lon == null) continue;
|
|
validIndices.push(i);
|
|
const cellRow = Math.floor(s.lat / cellSizeLat);
|
|
const cosLat = Math.cos(s.lat * Math.PI / 180);
|
|
const cellSizeLon = cosLat > 0.01 ? cellSizeLat / cosLat : cellSizeLat;
|
|
const cellCol = Math.floor(s.lon / cellSizeLon);
|
|
const key = `${cellRow}:${cellCol}`;
|
|
const list = grid.get(key);
|
|
if (list) list.push(i); else grid.set(key, [i]);
|
|
}
|
|
for (const [key, indices] of grid) {
|
|
const sep = key.indexOf(':');
|
|
const row = Number(key.slice(0, sep));
|
|
const col = Number(key.slice(sep + 1));
|
|
for (let dr = -1; dr <= 1; dr++) {
|
|
for (let dc = -1; dc <= 1; dc++) {
|
|
const neighbors = grid.get(`${row + dr}:${col + dc}`);
|
|
if (!neighbors) continue;
|
|
for (const i of indices) {
|
|
const si = signals[i];
|
|
for (const j of neighbors) {
|
|
if (i >= j) continue;
|
|
const sj = signals[j];
|
|
if (haversineKm(si.lat, si.lon, sj.lat, sj.lon) <= radiusKm) union(i, j);
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
}
|
|
const clusterMap = new Map();
|
|
for (const i of validIndices) {
|
|
const root = find(i);
|
|
const list = clusterMap.get(root);
|
|
if (list) list.push(signals[i]); else clusterMap.set(root, [signals[i]]);
|
|
}
|
|
const clusters = [];
|
|
for (const sigs of clusterMap.values()) {
|
|
if (sigs.length >= 2) clusters.push({ signals: sigs });
|
|
}
|
|
return clusters;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function clusterByCountry(signals) {
|
|
const byCountry = new Map();
|
|
for (const s of signals) {
|
|
if (!s.country) continue;
|
|
const list = byCountry.get(s.country) ?? [];
|
|
list.push(s);
|
|
byCountry.set(s.country, list);
|
|
}
|
|
const clusters = [];
|
|
for (const [country, sigs] of byCountry) {
|
|
if (sigs.length < 2) continue;
|
|
clusters.push({ signals: sigs, country });
|
|
}
|
|
return clusters;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
function clusterByEntity(signals) {
|
|
const COMPOUND_PATTERNS = [
|
|
'supply chain', 'rare earth', 'central bank', 'interest rate',
|
|
'trade war', 'oil price', 'gas price', 'federal reserve',
|
|
];
|
|
const SINGLE_KEYS = new Set([
|
|
'oil', 'gas', 'sanctions', 'trade', 'tariff', 'commodity', 'currency',
|
|
'energy', 'wheat', 'crude', 'gold', 'silver', 'copper', 'bitcoin',
|
|
'crypto', 'inflation', 'embargo', 'opec', 'semiconductor', 'dollar',
|
|
'yuan', 'euro',
|
|
]);
|
|
const tokenMap = new Map();
|
|
for (const s of signals) {
|
|
const lower = s.label.toLowerCase();
|
|
let matchedKey = COMPOUND_PATTERNS.find(p => lower.includes(p));
|
|
if (!matchedKey) {
|
|
const words = lower.split(/\W+/);
|
|
matchedKey = words.find(w => SINGLE_KEYS.has(w));
|
|
}
|
|
if (!matchedKey) continue;
|
|
const list = tokenMap.get(matchedKey) ?? [];
|
|
list.push(s);
|
|
tokenMap.set(matchedKey, list);
|
|
}
|
|
const clusters = [];
|
|
for (const [key, sigs] of tokenMap) {
|
|
if (sigs.length < 2) continue;
|
|
clusters.push({ signals: sigs, entityKey: key });
|
|
}
|
|
return clusters;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Scoring ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
function scoreClusters(clusters, weights, threshold) {
|
|
return clusters
|
|
.map(cluster => {
|
|
const perType = new Map();
|
|
for (const s of cluster.signals) {
|
|
const current = perType.get(s.type) ?? 0;
|
|
perType.set(s.type, Math.max(current, s.severity));
|
|
}
|
|
let weightedSum = 0;
|
|
for (const [type, severity] of perType) {
|
|
weightedSum += severity * (weights[type] ?? 0);
|
|
}
|
|
const diversityBonus = Math.min(30, Math.max(0, (perType.size - 2)) * 12);
|
|
const score = Math.min(100, weightedSum + diversityBonus);
|
|
|
|
let centroidLat, centroidLon;
|
|
const geoSignals = cluster.signals.filter(s => s.lat != null && s.lon != null);
|
|
if (geoSignals.length > 0) {
|
|
centroidLat = geoSignals.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.lat, 0) / geoSignals.length;
|
|
const toRad = Math.PI / 180;
|
|
let sinSum = 0, cosSum = 0;
|
|
for (const s of geoSignals) {
|
|
sinSum += Math.sin(s.lon * toRad);
|
|
cosSum += Math.cos(s.lon * toRad);
|
|
}
|
|
centroidLon = Math.atan2(sinSum, cosSum) * (180 / Math.PI);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
const countries = [...new Set(cluster.signals.map(s => s.country).filter(Boolean))];
|
|
const key = cluster.country ?? cluster.entityKey ?? `${centroidLat?.toFixed(1)},${centroidLon?.toFixed(1)}`;
|
|
|
|
return { cluster, score, countries, centroidLat, centroidLon, key };
|
|
})
|
|
.filter(c => c.score >= threshold);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Card Generation ─────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
function toCard(scored, domain, titleFn) {
|
|
const title = titleFn(scored.cluster.signals, scored.cluster.entityKey);
|
|
const location = scored.centroidLat != null && scored.centroidLon != null
|
|
? { lat: scored.centroidLat, lon: scored.centroidLon, label: scored.key }
|
|
: undefined;
|
|
|
|
const signals = scored.cluster.signals.map(s => ({
|
|
type: s.type,
|
|
source: s.source,
|
|
severity: s.severity,
|
|
lat: s.lat,
|
|
lon: s.lon,
|
|
country: s.country,
|
|
timestamp: s.timestamp,
|
|
label: s.label,
|
|
}));
|
|
|
|
return {
|
|
id: `${domain}:${scored.key}`,
|
|
domain,
|
|
title,
|
|
score: Math.round(scored.score),
|
|
signals,
|
|
location,
|
|
countries: scored.countries,
|
|
trend: 'stable',
|
|
timestamp: Date.now(),
|
|
};
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
// ── Domain configs ──────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
const DOMAINS = {
|
|
military: {
|
|
weights: { military_flight: 0.40, ais_gap: 0.30, military_vessel: 0.30 },
|
|
clusterMode: 'geographic',
|
|
spatialRadius: 500,
|
|
threshold: 20,
|
|
titleFn: generateMilitaryTitle,
|
|
},
|
|
escalation: {
|
|
weights: { conflict_event: 0.45, escalation_outage: 0.25, news_severity: 0.30 },
|
|
clusterMode: 'country',
|
|
threshold: 20,
|
|
titleFn: generateEscalationTitle,
|
|
},
|
|
economic: {
|
|
weights: { market_move: 0.35, sanctions_news: 0.30, commodity_spike: 0.35 },
|
|
clusterMode: 'entity',
|
|
threshold: 20,
|
|
titleFn: generateEconomicTitle,
|
|
},
|
|
disaster: {
|
|
weights: { earthquake: 0.55, infra_outage: 0.45 },
|
|
clusterMode: 'geographic',
|
|
spatialRadius: 500,
|
|
threshold: 20,
|
|
titleFn: generateDisasterTitle,
|
|
},
|
|
};
|
|
|
|
// ── Main ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
|
async function computeCorrelation() {
|
|
const data = await fetchInputData();
|
|
|
|
const hasAnyData = INPUT_KEYS.some(k => data[k] != null);
|
|
if (!hasAnyData) throw new Error('No input data available in Redis');
|
|
|
|
const flights = data['military:flights:v1']?.flights
|
|
?? data['military:flights:stale:v1']?.flights
|
|
?? data['military:flights:v1'] ?? data['military:flights:stale:v1'] ?? [];
|
|
const rawFlights = Array.isArray(flights) ? flights : [];
|
|
|
|
const protestData = data['unrest:events:v1'];
|
|
const protests = protestData?.events ?? (Array.isArray(protestData) ? protestData : []);
|
|
|
|
const outageData = data['infra:outages:v1'];
|
|
const outages = outageData?.outages ?? (Array.isArray(outageData) ? outageData : []);
|
|
|
|
const quakeData = data['seismology:earthquakes:v1'];
|
|
const earthquakes = quakeData?.earthquakes ?? (Array.isArray(quakeData) ? quakeData : []);
|
|
|
|
const stockQuotes = data['market:stocks-bootstrap:v1']?.quotes ?? [];
|
|
const commodityQuotes = data['market:commodities-bootstrap:v1']?.quotes ?? [];
|
|
const cryptoQuotes = data['market:crypto:v1']?.quotes ?? [];
|
|
const allMarkets = [...stockQuotes, ...commodityQuotes, ...cryptoQuotes];
|
|
|
|
const insights = data['news:insights:v1'];
|
|
const newsClusters = (insights?.topStories ?? []).map(s => ({
|
|
primaryTitle: s.primaryTitle,
|
|
threat: { level: s.threatLevel ?? 'moderate' },
|
|
lastUpdated: s.pubDate ? new Date(s.pubDate).getTime() : (insights?.generatedAt ? new Date(insights.generatedAt).getTime() : Date.now()),
|
|
lat: s.lat,
|
|
lon: s.lon,
|
|
}));
|
|
|
|
const result = { military: [], escalation: [], economic: [], disaster: [], computedAt: Date.now() };
|
|
|
|
// Military
|
|
const milSignals = collectMilitarySignals(rawFlights);
|
|
const milClusters = clusterByProximity(milSignals, 500);
|
|
const milScored = scoreClusters(milClusters, DOMAINS.military.weights, DOMAINS.military.threshold);
|
|
result.military = milScored.map(s => toCard(s, 'military', generateMilitaryTitle)).sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score);
|
|
|
|
// Escalation
|
|
const escSignals = collectEscalationSignals(protests, outages, newsClusters);
|
|
const escClusters = clusterByCountry(escSignals);
|
|
const escScored = scoreClusters(escClusters, DOMAINS.escalation.weights, DOMAINS.escalation.threshold);
|
|
result.escalation = escScored.map(s => toCard(s, 'escalation', generateEscalationTitle)).sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score);
|
|
|
|
// Economic
|
|
const ecoSignals = collectEconomicSignals(allMarkets, newsClusters);
|
|
const ecoClusters = clusterByEntity(ecoSignals);
|
|
const ecoScored = scoreClusters(ecoClusters, DOMAINS.economic.weights, DOMAINS.economic.threshold);
|
|
result.economic = ecoScored.map(s => toCard(s, 'economic', generateEconomicTitle)).sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score);
|
|
|
|
// Disaster
|
|
const disSignals = collectDisasterSignals(earthquakes, outages, protests);
|
|
const disClusters = clusterByProximity(disSignals, 500);
|
|
const disScored = scoreClusters(disClusters, DOMAINS.disaster.weights, DOMAINS.disaster.threshold);
|
|
result.disaster = disScored.map(s => toCard(s, 'disaster', generateDisasterTitle)).sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score);
|
|
|
|
return result;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
runSeed('correlation', 'cards', CANONICAL_KEY, computeCorrelation, {
|
|
ttlSeconds: CACHE_TTL,
|
|
sourceVersion: 'correlation-engine-v1',
|
|
recordCount: (data) => (data.military?.length ?? 0) + (data.escalation?.length ?? 0) + (data.economic?.length ?? 0) + (data.disaster?.length ?? 0),
|
|
extraKeys: [
|
|
{ key: 'correlation:military:v1', ttl: CACHE_TTL },
|
|
{ key: 'correlation:escalation:v1', ttl: CACHE_TTL },
|
|
{ key: 'correlation:economic:v1', ttl: CACHE_TTL },
|
|
{ key: 'correlation:disaster:v1', ttl: CACHE_TTL },
|
|
].map(ek => ({
|
|
key: ek.key,
|
|
ttl: ek.ttl,
|
|
transform: (data) => data[ek.key.split(':')[1]],
|
|
})),
|
|
}).catch((err) => {
|
|
console.error('FATAL:', err.message || err);
|
|
process.exit(1);
|
|
});
|