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45f5e5a457
* feat(forecast): add AI Forecasts prediction module (Pro-tier)
MiroFish-inspired prediction engine that generates structured forecasts
across 6 domains (conflict, market, supply chain, political, military,
infrastructure) using existing WorldMonitor data streams.
- Proto definitions for ForecastService with GetForecasts RPC
- Dedicated seed script (seed-forecasts.mjs) with 6 domain detectors,
cross-domain cascade resolver, prediction market calibration, and
trend detection via prior snapshot comparison
- Premium-gated RPC handler (PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS enforcement)
- Lazy-loaded ForecastPanel with domain filters, probability bars,
trend arrows, signal evidence, and cascade links
- Health monitoring integration (seed-meta freshness tracking)
- Refresh scheduler with API key guard
* test(forecast): add 47 unit tests for forecast detectors and utilities
Covers forecastId, normalize, resolveCascades, calibrateWithMarkets,
computeTrends, and smoke tests for all 6 domain detectors. Exports
testable functions from seed script with direct-run guard.
* fix(forecast): domain mismatch 'infra' vs 'infrastructure', add panel category
- Seed script used 'infra' but ForecastPanel filtered on 'infrastructure',
causing Infra tab to show zero results
- Added 'forecast' to intelligence category in PANEL_CATEGORY_MAP
* fix(forecast): move CSS to one-time injection, improve type safety
- P2: Move style block from setContent to one-time document.head injection
to prevent CSS accumulation on repeated renders
- P3: Replace +toFixed(3) with Math.round for readability in seed script
- P3: Use Forecast type instead of any[] in RPC handler filter
* fix(forecast): handle sebuf proto data shapes from Redis
Detectors now normalize CII scores from server-side proto format
(combinedScore, TREND_DIRECTION_RISING, region) to uniform shape.
Outage severity handles proto enum format (SEVERITY_LEVEL_HIGH).
Added confidence floor of 0.3 for single-source predictions.
Verified against live Redis: 2 predictions generated (Iran infra
shutdown, IL political instability).
* feat(forecast): unlock AI Forecasts on web, lock desktop only (trial)
- Remove forecast RPC from PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS (web access is free)
- Panel locked on desktop only (same as oref-sirens/telegram-intel)
- Remove API key guards from data-loader and refresh scheduler
- Web users get full access during trial period
* chore: regenerate proto types with make generate
Re-ran make generate after rebasing on main. Plugin v0.7.0 dropped
@ts-nocheck from output, added it back to all 50 generated files.
Fixed 4 type errors from proto codegen changes:
- MarketSource enum -> string union type
- TemporalAnomalyProto -> TemporalAnomaly rename
- webcam lastUpdated number -> string
* fix(forecast): use chokepoints v4 key, include ciiContribution in unrest
- P1: Switch chokepoints input from stale v2 to active v4 Redis key,
matching bootstrap.js and cache-keys.ts
- P2: Add ciiContribution to unrest component fallback chain in
normalizeCiiEntry so political detector reads the correct sebuf field
* feat(forecast): Phase 2 LLM scenario enrichment + confidence model
MiroFish-inspired enhancements:
- LLM scenario narratives via Groq/OpenRouter (narrative-only, no numeric
adjustment). Evidence-grounded prompts with mandatory signal citation
and few-shot examples from MiroFish's SECTION_SYSTEM_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.
- Top-4 predictions batched into single LLM call for cost efficiency.
- News context from newsInsights attached to all predictions for LLM
prompt grounding (NOT in signals, cannot affect confidence).
- Deterministic confidence model: source diversity via SIGNAL_TO_SOURCE
mapping (deduplicates cii+cii_delta, theater+indicators) + calibration
agreement from prediction market drift. Floor 0.2, ceiling 1.0.
- Output validation: rejects scenarios without signal references.
- Truncated JSON repair for small model output.
- Structured JSON logging for LLM calls.
- Redis cache for LLM scenarios (1h TTL).
- 23 new tests (70 total), all passing.
- Live-tested: OpenRouter gemini-2.5-flash produces evidence-grounded
scenario narratives from real WorldMonitor data.
* feat(forecast): Phase 3 multi-perspective scenarios, projections, data-driven cascades
MiroFish-inspired enhancements:
- Multi-perspective LLM analysis: top-2 predictions get strategic,
regional, and contrarian viewpoints via combined LLM call
- Probability projections: domain-specific decay curves (h24/d7/d30)
anchored to timeHorizon so probability equals projections[timeHorizon]
- Data-driven cascade rules: moved from hardcoded array to JSON config
(scripts/data/cascade-rules.json) with schema validation, named
predicate evaluators, unknown key rejection, and fallback to defaults
- 4 new cascade paths: infrastructure->supply_chain, infrastructure->market
(both requiresSeverity:total), conflict->political, political->market
- Proto: added Perspectives and Projections messages to Forecast
- ForecastPanel: renders projections row and conditional perspectives toggle
- 89 tests (19 new), all passing
- Live-tested: OpenRouter produces perspectives from real data
* feat(forecast): Phase 4 data utilization + entity graph
Fixes data gaps that prevented 4 of 6 detectors from firing:
- Input normalizers: chokepoint v4 shape + GPS hexes-to-zones mapping
- Chokepoint warm-ping (production-only, requires WM_API_BASE_URL)
- Lowered CII conflict threshold from 70 to 60, gated on level=high|critical
4 new standalone detectors:
- UCDP conflict zones (10+ events per country)
- Cyber threat concentration (5+ threats per country)
- GPS jamming in maritime shipping zones (5 regions)
- Prediction markets as signals (60-90% probability markets)
Entity-relationship graph (file-based, 38 nodes):
- Countries, theaters, commodities, chokepoints, alliances
- Alias table resolves both ISO codes and display names
- Graph cascade discovery links predictions across entities
Result: 51 predictions (up from 1-2), spanning conflict, infrastructure,
and supply chain domains. 112 tests, all passing.
* fix(forecast): redis cache format, signal source mapping, type safety
Fresh-eyes audit fixes:
- BUG: redisSet used wrong Upstash API format (POST body with {value,ex}
instead of command array ['SET',key,value,'EX',ttl]). LLM cache writes
were silently failing, causing fresh LLM calls every run.
- BUG: prediction_market signal type missing from SIGNAL_TO_SOURCE,
inflating confidence for market-derived predictions.
- CLEANUP: Remove unnecessary (f as any) casts in ForecastPanel since
generated Forecast type already has projections/perspectives fields.
- CLEANUP: Bump health maxStaleMin from 60 to 90 to avoid false STALE
alerts when LLM calls add latency to seed runs.
* feat(forecast): headline-entity matching with news corroboration signals
Uses entity graph aliases to match headlines to predictions by
country/theater (excludes commodity/infrastructure nodes to prevent
false positives). Predictions with matching headlines get a
news_corroboration signal visible in the panel.
Also fixes buildUserPrompt to merge unique headlines from ALL
predictions in the LLM batch (was only reading preds[0].newsContext).
Live-tested: 13 of 51 predictions now have corroborating headlines
(Iran, Israel, Syria, Ukraine, etc). 116 tests, all passing.
* feat(forecast): add country-codes.json for headline-entity matching
56 countries with ISO codes, full names, and scoring keywords (extracted
from src/config/countries.ts + UCDP-relevant additions). Used by
attachNewsContext for richer headline matching via getSearchTermsForRegion
which combines country-codes + entity graph + keyword aliases.
14/57 predictions now have news corroboration (limited by headline
coverage, not matching quality: only 8 headlines currently available).
* feat(forecast): read 300 headlines from news digest instead of 8
Read news:digest:v1:full:en (300 headlines across 16 categories) instead
of just news:insights:v1 topStories (8 headlines). Fallback to topStories
if digest is unavailable.
Result: news corroboration jumped from 25% to 64% (38/59 predictions).
* fix(forecast): handle parenthetical country names in headline matching
Strip suffixes like '(Zaire)', '(Burma)', '(Soviet Union)' from UCDP
region names before matching against country-codes.json. Also use
includes() for reverse name lookup to catch partial matches.
Corroboration: 64% -> 69% (41/59). Remaining 18 unmatched are countries
with no current English-language news coverage.
* fix(forecast): cache validated LLM output, add digest test, log cache errors
Fresh-eyes audit fixes:
- Combined LLM cache now stores only validated items (was caching raw
unvalidated output, serving potentially invalid scenarios on cache hit)
- redisSet logs warnings on failure (was silently swallowing all errors)
- Added digest-based test for attachNewsContext (primary path was untested)
- Fixed test arity: attachNewsContext(preds, news, digest) with 3 params
* fix(forecast): remove dead confidenceFromSources, reduce warm-ping timeout
- P2: Remove confidenceFromSources (dead code, computeConfidence overwrites
all initial confidence values). Inline the formula in original detectors.
- P3: Reduce warm-ping timeout from 30s to 15s (non-critical step)
- P3: Add trial status comment on forecast panel config
* fix(forecast): resolve ISO codes to country names, fix market detector, safe pre-push
P1 fixes from code review:
- CII ISO codes (IL, IR) now resolved to full country names (Israel, Iran)
via country-codes.json. Prevents substring false positives (IL matching
Chile) in event correlation. Uses word-boundary regex for matching.
- Market detector CII-to-theater mapping now uses entity graph traversal
instead of broken theater-name substring matching. Iran correctly maps
to Middle East theater via graph links.
- Pre-push hook no longer runs destructive git checkout on proto freshness
failure. Reports mismatch and exits without modifying worktree.
86 lines
5.8 KiB
JSON
86 lines
5.8 KiB
JSON
{
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"aliases": {
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"IR": "IR", "IL": "IL", "UA": "UA", "RU": "RU", "CN": "CN", "TW": "TW",
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"YE": "YE", "SA": "SA", "KP": "KP", "KR": "KR", "US": "US", "SY": "SY",
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"MM": "MM", "SD": "SD", "AF": "AF", "IQ": "IQ", "LB": "LB",
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"Iran": "IR", "Israel": "IL", "Ukraine": "UA", "Russia": "RU",
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"China": "CN", "Taiwan": "TW", "Yemen": "YE", "Syria": "SY",
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"Myanmar": "MM", "Sudan": "SD", "Afghanistan": "AF", "Iraq": "IQ",
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"Lebanon": "LB", "Saudi Arabia": "SA", "North Korea": "KP",
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"Israel/Gaza": "israel-gaza",
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"Middle East": "middle-east",
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"Western Pacific": "western-pacific",
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"Black Sea": "black-sea",
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"Red Sea": "red-sea",
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"Northern Europe": "baltic",
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"Eastern Mediterranean": "east-med",
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"Korean Peninsula": "korea",
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"South China Sea": "scs",
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"Persian Gulf": "middle-east",
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"Baltic Sea": "baltic",
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"Americas": "americas",
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"Europe": "europe",
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"Asia-Pacific": "asia-pacific",
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"Africa": "africa",
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"Latin America": "latam"
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},
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"nodes": {
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"IR": { "name": "Iran", "type": "country", "links": ["oil", "IL", "hormuz", "middle-east", "red-sea", "YE"] },
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"IL": { "name": "Israel", "type": "country", "links": ["IR", "israel-gaza", "US", "east-med", "LB"] },
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"UA": { "name": "Ukraine", "type": "country", "links": ["RU", "grain", "black-sea"] },
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"RU": { "name": "Russia", "type": "country", "links": ["UA", "oil", "gas", "baltic", "black-sea"] },
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"CN": { "name": "China", "type": "country", "links": ["TW", "scs", "western-pacific", "semiconductors"] },
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"TW": { "name": "Taiwan", "type": "country", "links": ["CN", "semiconductors", "western-pacific"] },
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"YE": { "name": "Yemen", "type": "country", "links": ["IR", "red-sea", "shipping"] },
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"SA": { "name": "Saudi Arabia", "type": "country", "links": ["IR", "oil", "hormuz", "middle-east"] },
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"SY": { "name": "Syria", "type": "country", "links": ["IR", "RU", "middle-east"] },
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"KP": { "name": "North Korea", "type": "country", "links": ["korea", "CN"] },
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"KR": { "name": "South Korea", "type": "country", "links": ["korea", "US", "semiconductors"] },
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"US": { "name": "United States", "type": "country", "links": ["IL", "KR", "TW", "nato", "americas"] },
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"MM": { "name": "Myanmar", "type": "country", "links": ["asia-pacific"] },
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"SD": { "name": "Sudan", "type": "country", "links": ["africa", "red-sea"] },
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"AF": { "name": "Afghanistan", "type": "country", "links": ["middle-east"] },
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"IQ": { "name": "Iraq", "type": "country", "links": ["IR", "oil", "middle-east"] },
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"LB": { "name": "Lebanon", "type": "country", "links": ["IL", "IR", "east-med"] },
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"middle-east": { "name": "Middle East", "type": "theater", "links": ["IR", "IL", "SA", "IQ", "SY", "oil", "hormuz"] },
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"black-sea": { "name": "Black Sea", "type": "theater", "links": ["UA", "RU", "grain"] },
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"western-pacific": { "name": "Western Pacific", "type": "theater", "links": ["CN", "TW", "semiconductors"] },
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"red-sea": { "name": "Red Sea", "type": "theater", "links": ["YE", "IR", "SD", "oil", "shipping"] },
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"baltic": { "name": "Baltic", "type": "theater", "links": ["RU", "nato"] },
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"east-med": { "name": "Eastern Mediterranean", "type": "theater", "links": ["IL", "LB", "gas"] },
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"israel-gaza": { "name": "Israel/Gaza", "type": "theater", "links": ["IL", "IR"] },
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"korea": { "name": "Korean Peninsula", "type": "theater", "links": ["KP", "KR", "US"] },
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"scs": { "name": "South China Sea", "type": "theater", "links": ["CN", "shipping"] },
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"americas": { "name": "Americas", "type": "region", "links": ["US"] },
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"europe": { "name": "Europe", "type": "region", "links": ["RU", "UA", "nato", "baltic"] },
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"asia-pacific": { "name": "Asia-Pacific", "type": "region", "links": ["CN", "TW", "KP", "KR", "MM"] },
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"africa": { "name": "Africa", "type": "region", "links": ["SD"] },
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"latam": { "name": "Latin America", "type": "region", "links": [] },
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"oil": { "name": "Oil", "type": "commodity", "links": ["IR", "SA", "IQ", "RU", "hormuz", "red-sea", "middle-east"] },
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"grain": { "name": "Grain", "type": "commodity", "links": ["UA", "RU", "black-sea"] },
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"semiconductors": { "name": "Semiconductors", "type": "commodity", "links": ["TW", "KR", "CN", "western-pacific"] },
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"gas": { "name": "Gas", "type": "commodity", "links": ["RU", "east-med"] },
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"hormuz": { "name": "Strait of Hormuz", "type": "chokepoint", "links": ["IR", "SA", "oil", "middle-east"] },
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"shipping": { "name": "Global Shipping", "type": "infrastructure", "links": ["red-sea", "scs", "hormuz", "YE"] },
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"nato": { "name": "NATO", "type": "alliance", "links": ["US", "europe", "baltic"] }
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},
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"edges": [
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{ "from": "IR", "to": "IL", "relation": "adversary", "weight": 0.9 },
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{ "from": "IR", "to": "oil", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.8 },
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{ "from": "IR", "to": "YE", "relation": "proxy", "weight": 0.7 },
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{ "from": "IR", "to": "LB", "relation": "proxy", "weight": 0.7 },
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{ "from": "RU", "to": "UA", "relation": "adversary", "weight": 0.95 },
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{ "from": "RU", "to": "oil", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.7 },
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{ "from": "RU", "to": "gas", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.8 },
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{ "from": "CN", "to": "TW", "relation": "adversary", "weight": 0.8 },
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{ "from": "TW", "to": "semiconductors", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.95 },
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{ "from": "KP", "to": "KR", "relation": "adversary", "weight": 0.85 },
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{ "from": "YE", "to": "shipping", "relation": "disrupts", "weight": 0.8 },
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{ "from": "hormuz", "to": "oil", "relation": "trade_route", "weight": 0.9 },
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{ "from": "red-sea", "to": "shipping", "relation": "trade_route", "weight": 0.85 },
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{ "from": "UA", "to": "grain", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.8 },
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{ "from": "SA", "to": "oil", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.85 },
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{ "from": "IQ", "to": "oil", "relation": "producer", "weight": 0.6 }
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]
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}
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