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feat(resilience): refresh benchmark sources — INFORM 2026 API + UNDP HDI + WRI via HDX (#3068)
* feat(resilience): refresh benchmark sources — INFORM 2026 API + UNDP HDI + WRI via HDX Replaces stale/broken external sources with fresh, authoritative ones. Before: 4 sources hardcoded to year-stamped CSV URLs that all drift annually. By today: INFORM_Composite_2024.csv was 404 (JRC reorganized to XLSX+API), FSI's latest downloadable bulk data is 2023 XLSX (no 2024/2025 CSV published), WRI's weltrisikobericht.de/download/2944 URL 404'd, and ND-GAIN's nd_gain_countryindex_2023data.csv URL now serves the 2023 report PDF (silently parsed to 0 rows while logging '2.4 MB fetched live'). After: 3 sources, all live, all authoritative, all fresh. INFORM Risk 2026 via JRC's JSON API (WorkflowId=505, 191 countries, plain UA bypasses the Chrome-UA bot-check). UNDP HDI from the 2025 HDR composite-indices time-series CSV (191 countries, 2023 data). WorldRiskIndex 2024 via the HDX CDN multi-year 'trend' CSV (192 countries, stable, not geo-blocked). FSI dropped entirely (no fresh bulk data). ND-GAIN deferred until the seeder can unzip the 2026 archive (ships only as ZIP now). Hypothesis count 4 → 3, WM-resilience↔HDI is positive (higher HDI → higher resilience), keeping the negative correlations for INFORM (risk) and WorldRiskIndex (risk). Smoke-tested against production: all three URLs return valid data in 0.2-3.4s with 191-192 countries each. 25/25 unit tests pass, biome clean, typecheck clean. * fix(resilience): guard INFORM rows.length + drop unused NDGAIN_ZIP_URL constant Two reviewer P2s on PR #3068. 1. fetchInformGlobal logged rows.length BEFORE the Array.isArray guard. A null/object response body would throw 'Cannot read properties of null', the surrounding catch would swallow it, and the user-facing log would say 'Live fetch failed for INFORM' as if it were a network error. Now type-checks before logging — payload-shape regressions surface as 'expected JSON array, got object' instead of a misleading network error string. 2. NDGAIN_ZIP_URL was a doc-only constant never referenced anywhere — risked a noUnusedVariables lint failure. Demoted to a regular comment with the same content + an explicit DO-NOT-RESTORE warning about the silent PDF-served-as-CSV trap on the legacy URL.
This commit is contained in:
Elie Habib
@@ -1,11 +1,14 @@
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#!/usr/bin/env node
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// Cross-index benchmark: compares WorldMonitor resilience scores against
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// INFORM Global, ND-GAIN, WorldRiskIndex, and FSI using Spearman/Pearson.
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// INFORM Risk (JRC), UNDP HDI, and WorldRiskIndex (HDX) using Spearman/Pearson.
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//
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// FSI data sourced from the Fund for Peace under non-commercial academic license.
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// WorldMonitor uses FSI scores for internal validation benchmarking only.
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// FSI scores are NOT displayed in the product UI or included in the public ranking.
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// All three sources are CC-BY or open-licensed:
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// INFORM Risk — JRC, CC-BY 4.0
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// UNDP HDI — UNDP, publicly downloadable HDR statistical annex
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// WorldRiskIndex — Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft / IFHV, CC-BY 4.0 via HDX
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// Scores are used for INTERNAL validation benchmarking only; not displayed
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// in product UI or the public resilience ranking.
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import { readFileSync, writeFileSync, mkdirSync, existsSync } from 'node:fs';
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import { dirname, join } from 'node:path';
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@@ -20,16 +23,43 @@ const REFERENCE_DIR = join(VALIDATION_DIR, 'reference-data');
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const REDIS_KEY = 'resilience:benchmark:external:v1';
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const REDIS_TTL = 7 * 24 * 60 * 60;
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const INFORM_CSV_URL = 'https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/Portals/0/InfoRM/INFORM_Composite_2024.csv';
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const NDGAIN_CSV_URL = 'https://gain.nd.edu/assets/522870/nd_gain_countryindex_2023data.csv';
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const WRI_CSV_URL = 'https://weltrisikobericht.de/download/2944/';
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const FSI_CSV_URL = 'https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/fsi-2024.csv';
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// INFORM Risk 2026 — JRC moved away from year-stamped composite CSVs to a JSON
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// API. WorkflowId=505 is "INFORM Risk 2026" (queried via /Workflows endpoint,
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// bump when a newer release lands).
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const INFORM_JSON_URL = 'https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/API/InformAPI/countries/Scores/?WorkflowId=505&IndicatorId=INFORM';
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// UNDP HDI 2025 — composite-indices time series CSV, refreshed annually with
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// the new HDR publication. Latest year column is hdi_YYYY (currently 2023 in
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// the 2025 HDR). Wide format: one row per country, one column per year.
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const HDI_CSV_URL = 'https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2025_HDR/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.csv';
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// WorldRiskIndex — migrated from weltrisikobericht.de/download/2944/ (404'd)
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// to the HDX dataset which is CDN-stable and not geo-blocked. Multi-year
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// "trend" CSV; we pick each country's latest year.
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const WRI_CSV_URL = 'https://data.humdata.org/dataset/1efb6ee7-051a-440f-a2cf-e652fecccf73/resource/3a2320fa-41b4-4dda-a847-3f397d865378/download/worldriskindex-trend.csv';
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// ND-GAIN 2026 is published ONLY inside a ZIP at
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// https://gain.nd.edu/assets/647440/ndgain_countryindex_2026.zip
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// (resources/gain/gain.csv inside). Node has no built-in zip reader and the
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// validation Docker image only installs tsx. Deferred until we wire an
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// unzip step (adm-zip dep, or `apk add unzip` in
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// Dockerfile.seed-bundle-resilience-validation).
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//
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// Do NOT restore the old `/assets/522870/nd_gain_countryindex_2023data.csv`
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// URL — that endpoint now silently serves the 2023 report PDF, parses to
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// zero rows, and the fetch logs "Fetched 2.4 MB live" with no error
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// (silent-success trap). See feedback_url_200_but_wrong_content_type_silent_zero.md.
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// FSI retired — latest bulk download is 2023 XLSX (no parser in image) and
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// Fund for Peace stopped publishing 2024/2025 bulk data. Replaced in the
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// HYPOTHESES list below by UNDP HDI (fresher, authoritative, CSV).
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export const HYPOTHESES = [
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// Higher WM resilience ↔ lower humanitarian/disaster risk: expect negative
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// correlation with INFORM (0-10, higher = more risk).
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{ index: 'INFORM', pillar: 'overall', direction: 'negative', minSpearman: 0.60 },
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{ index: 'ND-GAIN', pillar: 'structural-readiness', direction: 'positive', minSpearman: 0.65 },
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// Higher WM resilience ↔ higher human development: expect positive
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// correlation with HDI (0-1, higher = more developed).
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{ index: 'HDI', pillar: 'overall', direction: 'positive', minSpearman: 0.65 },
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// Higher WM resilience ↔ lower disaster risk: expect negative correlation
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// with WRI (0-100, higher = more risk).
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{ index: 'WorldRiskIndex', pillar: 'overall', direction: 'negative', minSpearman: 0.55 },
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{ index: 'FSI', pillar: 'overall', direction: 'negative', minSpearman: 0.60 },
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];
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const ISO3_TO_ISO2 = buildIso3ToIso2Map();
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@@ -125,66 +155,114 @@ function findColumn(headers, ...candidates) {
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return null;
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}
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// INFORM JSON API returns an array of { Iso3, IndicatorId, IndicatorScore, … }.
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// We filter IndicatorId='INFORM' (the composite top-level score) and convert
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// ISO3→ISO2 via the shared toIso2 helper. Falls back to a reference JSON file
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// at REFERENCE_DIR/inform.json if the live API is unreachable.
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export async function fetchInformGlobal() {
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const { text, source } = await fetchCSV(INFORM_CSV_URL, 'INFORM');
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if (!text) return { scores: new Map(), source };
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const rows = parseCSV(text);
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const label = 'INFORM';
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let rows = null;
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let source = 'live';
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try {
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// JRC's WAF returns an HTML bot-check page to desktop-browser UAs (including
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// our shared CHROME_UA). Using a plain programmatic UA bypasses the
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// challenge and gets the raw JSON response.
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const resp = await fetch(INFORM_JSON_URL, {
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headers: { 'User-Agent': 'WorldMonitor-Benchmark/1.0', Accept: 'application/json' },
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signal: AbortSignal.timeout(30_000),
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});
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if (!resp.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${resp.status}`);
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rows = await resp.json();
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// Type-guard before logging row count: a successful HTTP 200 with a
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// null/object body would otherwise throw "Cannot read properties of null"
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// and the catch below would log it as a misleading "Live fetch failed"
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// when the real issue is a payload-shape regression.
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if (!Array.isArray(rows)) throw new Error(`expected JSON array, got ${typeof rows}`);
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console.log(`[benchmark] Fetched ${label} live (${rows.length} rows)`);
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} catch (err) {
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console.warn(`[benchmark] Live fetch failed for ${label}: ${err.message}`);
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const refPath = join(REFERENCE_DIR, 'inform.json');
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if (existsSync(refPath)) {
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rows = JSON.parse(readFileSync(refPath, 'utf8'));
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source = 'stub';
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console.log(`[benchmark] Loaded ${label} from reference JSON (${Array.isArray(rows) ? rows.length : 0} rows)`);
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} else {
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console.warn(`[benchmark] No reference JSON at ${refPath}, skipping ${label}`);
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return { scores: new Map(), source: 'unavailable' };
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}
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}
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const scores = new Map();
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let isoCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'iso3', 'iso', 'country_iso');
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let scoreCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'inform_risk', 'inform', 'risk_score', 'composite');
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if (!Array.isArray(rows)) return { scores, source };
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for (const row of rows) {
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const keys = Object.keys(row);
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const code = toIso2(row[isoCol || keys[0]]);
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const val = parseFloat(row[scoreCol || keys[keys.length - 1]]);
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if (code && !Number.isNaN(val)) scores.set(code, val);
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if (row.IndicatorId !== 'INFORM') continue;
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const code = toIso2(row.Iso3);
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const val = typeof row.IndicatorScore === 'number' ? row.IndicatorScore : parseFloat(row.IndicatorScore);
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if (code && Number.isFinite(val)) scores.set(code, val);
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}
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return { scores, source };
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}
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export async function fetchNdGain() {
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const { text, source } = await fetchCSV(NDGAIN_CSV_URL, 'ND-GAIN');
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if (!text) return { scores: new Map(), source };
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const rows = parseCSV(text);
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const scores = new Map();
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const isoCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'iso3', 'iso', 'country');
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const scoreCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'gain', 'nd-gain', 'score', 'readiness', 'index');
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for (const row of rows) {
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const keys = Object.keys(row);
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const code = toIso2(row[isoCol || keys[0]]);
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const val = parseFloat(row[scoreCol || keys[keys.length - 1]]);
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if (code && !Number.isNaN(val)) scores.set(code, val);
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}
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return { scores, source };
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}
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// ND-GAIN deferred — the 2026 release ships only as a ZIP (resources/gain/gain.csv
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// inside NDGAIN_ZIP_URL above). Add a zip reader (adm-zip dep or apk add unzip
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// in Dockerfile.seed-bundle-resilience-validation) then restore a fetchNdGain()
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// that unzips-and-parses. Legacy /assets/522870/nd_gain_countryindex_2023data.csv
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// URL now returns the 2023 report PDF, which silently produced 0 parsed rows
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// while logging 2.4 MB "fetched" — misleading. Dropped entirely rather than
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// keep a broken source.
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// WorldRiskIndex — HDX publishes a multi-year "trend" CSV
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// (worldriskindex-trend.csv) with columns: WRI.Country, ISO3.Code, Year, W
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// (composite), plus pillar components. Filter to each country's latest
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// year and use W as the composite score (0-100 scale).
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export async function fetchWorldRiskIndex() {
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const { text, source } = await fetchCSV(WRI_CSV_URL, 'WorldRiskIndex');
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if (!text) return { scores: new Map(), source };
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const rows = parseCSV(text);
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const scores = new Map();
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const isoCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'iso3', 'iso', 'country_code');
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const scoreCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'worldriskindex', 'wri', 'risk_index', 'score');
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const latestYear = new Map(); // iso2 → latest year seen
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for (const row of rows) {
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const keys = Object.keys(row);
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const code = toIso2(row[isoCol || keys[0]]);
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const val = parseFloat(row[scoreCol || keys[keys.length - 1]]);
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if (code && !Number.isNaN(val)) scores.set(code, val);
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const code = toIso2(row['ISO3.Code'] || row.iso3 || row.ISO3);
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if (!code) continue;
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const year = parseInt(row.Year ?? row.year, 10);
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const val = parseFloat(row.W ?? row.WRI ?? row.worldriskindex);
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if (!Number.isFinite(year) || !Number.isFinite(val)) continue;
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const prev = latestYear.get(code);
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if (prev == null || year > prev) {
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latestYear.set(code, year);
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scores.set(code, val);
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}
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}
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return { scores, source };
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}
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export async function fetchFsi() {
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const { text, source } = await fetchCSV(FSI_CSV_URL, 'FSI');
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// UNDP HDI — wide-format CSV, columns: iso3, country, hdicode, region,
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// hdi_rank_2023, hdi_1990..hdi_2023, plus other composite indices. Pick each
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// country's latest non-null hdi_YYYY column. Higher HDI = more developed =
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// expect positive correlation with our resilience score.
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export async function fetchHdi() {
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const { text, source } = await fetchCSV(HDI_CSV_URL, 'HDI');
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if (!text) return { scores: new Map(), source };
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const rows = parseCSV(text);
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const scores = new Map();
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const isoCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'iso', 'country_code', 'code');
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const scoreCol = findColumn(Object.keys(rows[0] || {}), 'total', 'fsi', 'score', 'fragility');
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if (rows.length === 0) return { scores, source };
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// Find the highest-year hdi_* column with any data; callers care about
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// "latest snapshot" not a specific year.
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const headers = Object.keys(rows[0]);
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const yearCols = headers
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.filter((h) => /^hdi_\d{4}$/i.test(h))
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.map((h) => ({ col: h, year: Number(h.slice(4)) }))
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.sort((a, b) => b.year - a.year);
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for (const row of rows) {
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const keys = Object.keys(row);
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const code = toIso2(row[isoCol || keys[0]]);
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const val = parseFloat(row[scoreCol || keys[keys.length - 1]]);
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if (code && !Number.isNaN(val)) scores.set(code, val);
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const iso2 = toIso2(row.iso3 || row.ISO3);
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if (!iso2) continue;
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for (const { col } of yearCols) {
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const val = parseFloat(row[col]);
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if (Number.isFinite(val)) {
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scores.set(iso2, val);
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break;
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}
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}
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}
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return { scores, source };
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}
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@@ -268,15 +346,12 @@ function generateCommentary(outlier, indexName, wmScores, _extScores) {
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'INFORM': wmHigh
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? `${countryCode}: WM scores high (fiscal/institutional capacity); INFORM penalizes geographic/hazard exposure`
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: `${countryCode}: WM scores low (limited structural buffers); INFORM rates risk ${direction} than WM resilience inversion`,
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'ND-GAIN': wmHigh
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? `${countryCode}: WM structural readiness aligns with ND-GAIN readiness; external rank ${direction} than expected`
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: `${countryCode}: WM structural readiness diverges from ND-GAIN; possible data-vintage or indicator-coverage gap`,
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'HDI': wmHigh
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? `${countryCode}: WM resilience tracks HDI human-development levels; external rank ${direction} than expected`
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: `${countryCode}: WM resilience and HDI diverge — HDI weights health/education/income; WM weights stress buffers`,
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'WorldRiskIndex': wmHigh
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? `${countryCode}: WM rates resilience high; WRI emphasizes exposure/vulnerability dimensions differently`
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: `${countryCode}: WM rates resilience low; WRI susceptibility weighting drives rank ${direction}`,
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'FSI': wmHigh
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? `${countryCode}: WM resilience high; FSI fragility captures governance/legitimacy dimensions WM weights differently`
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: `${countryCode}: WM resilience low; FSI cohesion/economic indicators drive ${direction} fragility rank`,
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};
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return templates[indexName] || `${countryCode}: WM diverges from ${indexName} by ${residual} sigma`;
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}
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@@ -348,9 +423,8 @@ export async function runBenchmark(opts = {}) {
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const fetchers = [
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{ name: 'INFORM', fn: opts.fetchInform || fetchInformGlobal },
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{ name: 'ND-GAIN', fn: opts.fetchNdGain || fetchNdGain },
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{ name: 'HDI', fn: opts.fetchHdi || fetchHdi },
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{ name: 'WorldRiskIndex', fn: opts.fetchWri || fetchWorldRiskIndex },
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{ name: 'FSI', fn: opts.fetchFsi || fetchFsi },
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];
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const externalResults = {};
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@@ -404,7 +478,7 @@ export async function runBenchmark(opts = {}) {
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const result = {
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generatedAt: Date.now(),
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license: 'FSI data: Fund for Peace, non-commercial academic license. For internal validation only.',
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license: 'INFORM Risk (JRC) CC-BY 4.0, UNDP HDI public, WorldRiskIndex (HDX) CC-BY 4.0. Internal validation only.',
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hypotheses: hypothesisResults,
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correlations,
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outliers: allOutliers,
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@@ -98,8 +98,11 @@ describe('detectOutliers', () => {
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});
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describe('HYPOTHESES', () => {
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it('has 4 hypothesis entries', () => {
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assert.equal(HYPOTHESES.length, 4);
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// INFORM (negative) + HDI (positive) + WRI (negative). FSI was dropped
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// (no fresh bulk data) and ND-GAIN is deferred until the seeder can unzip
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// the 2026 archive — both documented at the top of benchmark-resilience-external.mjs.
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it('has 3 hypothesis entries', () => {
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assert.equal(HYPOTHESES.length, 3);
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});
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it('each hypothesis has required fields', () => {
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@@ -117,9 +120,14 @@ describe('HYPOTHESES', () => {
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assert.equal(inform.direction, 'negative');
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});
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it('ND-GAIN expects positive correlation', () => {
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const ndgain = HYPOTHESES.find(h => h.index === 'ND-GAIN');
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assert.equal(ndgain.direction, 'positive');
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it('HDI expects positive correlation', () => {
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const hdi = HYPOTHESES.find(h => h.index === 'HDI');
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assert.equal(hdi.direction, 'positive');
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});
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it('WorldRiskIndex expects negative correlation', () => {
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const wri = HYPOTHESES.find(h => h.index === 'WorldRiskIndex');
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assert.equal(wri.direction, 'negative');
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});
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});
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@@ -165,19 +173,17 @@ describe('runBenchmark (mocked)', () => {
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const result = await runBenchmark({
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wmScores,
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fetchInform: mockInform,
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fetchNdGain: mockNdGain,
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fetchHdi: mockNdGain, // HDI test fixture reused — same correlation pattern
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fetchWri: mockWri,
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fetchFsi: mockFsi,
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dryRun: true,
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});
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assert.ok(result.generatedAt > 0, 'missing generatedAt');
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assert.ok(result.license, 'missing FSI license note');
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assert.equal(result.hypotheses.length, 4, 'expected 4 hypotheses');
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assert.ok(result.license, 'missing license note');
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assert.equal(result.hypotheses.length, 3, 'expected 3 hypotheses');
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assert.ok(result.correlations.INFORM, 'missing INFORM correlation');
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assert.ok(result.correlations['ND-GAIN'], 'missing ND-GAIN correlation');
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assert.ok(result.correlations.HDI, 'missing HDI correlation');
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assert.ok(result.correlations.WorldRiskIndex, 'missing WorldRiskIndex correlation');
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assert.ok(result.correlations.FSI, 'missing FSI correlation');
|
||||
assert.ok(Array.isArray(result.outliers), 'outliers must be an array');
|
||||
assert.ok(result.sourceStatus, 'missing sourceStatus');
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -195,7 +201,7 @@ describe('runBenchmark (mocked)', () => {
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('INFORM and FSI show negative correlation with mock data', async () => {
|
||||
it('INFORM shows negative correlation with mock data', async () => {
|
||||
const wmScores = new Map([
|
||||
['US', 85], ['GB', 78], ['DE', 80], ['FR', 76], ['JP', 82],
|
||||
['IN', 45], ['BR', 50], ['NG', 30], ['SO', 20], ['CH', 88],
|
||||
@@ -213,9 +219,8 @@ describe('runBenchmark (mocked)', () => {
|
||||
const result = await runBenchmark({
|
||||
wmScores,
|
||||
fetchInform: mockInform,
|
||||
fetchNdGain: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchHdi: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchWri: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchFsi: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
dryRun: true,
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -230,9 +235,8 @@ describe('runBenchmark (mocked)', () => {
|
||||
const result = await runBenchmark({
|
||||
wmScores,
|
||||
fetchInform: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchNdGain: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchHdi: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchWri: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
fetchFsi: emptyFetcher,
|
||||
dryRun: true,
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -257,9 +261,8 @@ describe('runBenchmark (mocked)', () => {
|
||||
const result = await runBenchmark({
|
||||
wmScores,
|
||||
fetchInform: async () => ({ scores: informScores, source: 'mock' }),
|
||||
fetchNdGain: async () => ({ scores: new Map(), source: 'mock' }),
|
||||
fetchHdi: async () => ({ scores: new Map(), source: 'mock' }),
|
||||
fetchWri: async () => ({ scores: new Map(), source: 'mock' }),
|
||||
fetchFsi: async () => ({ scores: new Map(), source: 'mock' }),
|
||||
dryRun: true,
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user