feat(resilience): recovery seeder bundle + de-stub import-HHI and fuel-stocks (#2999)

* feat(resilience): recovery seeder bundle + de-stub import-HHI and fuel-stocks - Add seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs orchestrating all 5 recovery seeders (fiscal-space, reserve-adequacy, external-debt, import-HHI, fuel-stocks) with 30-day intervals and freshness-gated skipping via _bundle-runner - Replace import-HHI stub with real Comtrade HS2 HHI computation: fetches per-country bilateral import data, computes Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, flags concentrated importers (HHI > 0.25), 90-day TTL (3x interval) - Replace fuel-stocks stub with IEA-derived implementation: reads existing energy:iea-oil-stocks:v1:index Redis key, computes fuel-stock-days per country, flags 90-day IEA obligation compliance, avoids duplicate API calls - Add tests: HHI computation (8 cases), fuel-stock-days derivation (6 cases), bundle smoke test (13 cases verifying entries, labels, scripts on disk) * fix(resilience): remove duplicate RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED declaration Pre-existing typecheck:api error from duplicate const export in _shared.ts. Keep the v2-enabled-by-default variant. * fix(resilience): Comtrade HHI seeder P1 fixes (#2999 review) 1. Removed fallback to public preview API (sends partnerCode='' which returns zero rows). COMTRADE_API_KEY is now required. Logs an error and returns empty if missing. Pinned period to previous year to avoid multi-year row duplication. 2. computeHhi() now aggregates values by partner (Map) before computing shares. Previously it computed per-row shares, so a partner appearing in N commodity rows was counted N times, understating concentration. Returns { hhi, partnerCount } instead of a bare number. Added 2 new test cases covering multi-row and multi-year aggregation. * fix(resilience): use COMTRADE_API_KEYS (plural) with key rotation * fix(resilience): omit partnerCode to fetch all bilateral partners (not world aggregate) * fix(resilience): HHI scale conversion + fuel-stocks field name (#2999 P1) 1. HHI seeder writes 0..1 scale but scorer expected 0..5000. Added *10000 conversion before normalizeLowerBetter so a concentrated importer at hhi=0.55 maps to 5500 (above the 5000 goalpost, scores low) instead of scoring near-perfect. 2. Fuel-stocks seeder writes fuelStockDays but scorer read stockDays. Updated the RecoveryFuelStocksCountry interface and both read sites to match the seeder field name. * fix(resilience): retry warning + fuel-stocks flag consistency (#2999 P2)
2026-04-25 17:14:57 +02:00 · 2026-04-12 11:39:48 +04:00
parent c081556121
commit 21331b9a1e
10 changed files with 445 additions and 39 deletions
--- a/scripts/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs
+++ b/scripts/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env node
+import { runBundle, DAY } from './_bundle-runner.mjs';
+
+await runBundle('resilience-recovery', [
+  { label: 'Fiscal-Space', script: 'seed-recovery-fiscal-space.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:fiscal-space', intervalMs: 30 * DAY, timeoutMs: 300_000 },
+  { label: 'Reserve-Adequacy', script: 'seed-recovery-reserve-adequacy.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:reserve-adequacy', intervalMs: 30 * DAY, timeoutMs: 300_000 },
+  { label: 'External-Debt', script: 'seed-recovery-external-debt.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:external-debt', intervalMs: 30 * DAY, timeoutMs: 300_000 },
+  { label: 'Import-HHI', script: 'seed-recovery-import-hhi.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:import-hhi', intervalMs: 30 * DAY, timeoutMs: 600_000 },
+  { label: 'Fuel-Stocks', script: 'seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:fuel-stocks', intervalMs: 30 * DAY, timeoutMs: 300_000 },
+]);
--- a/scripts/seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.mjs
+++ b/scripts/seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.mjs
@@ -1,26 +1,67 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env node

-import { loadEnvFile, runSeed } from './_seed-utils.mjs';
+import { loadEnvFile, runSeed, getRedisCredentials } from './_seed-utils.mjs';

 loadEnvFile(import.meta.url);

 const CANONICAL_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:fuel-stocks:v1';
-const CACHE_TTL = 35 * 24 * 3600;
+const CACHE_TTL = 90 * 24 * 3600;
+const IEA_SOURCE_KEY = 'energy:iea-oil-stocks:v1:index';

-async function fetchFuelStocks() {
-  console.log('[seed] fuel-stocks: STUB — IEA/EIA source not yet configured, writing empty payload');
-  return { countries: {}, seededAt: new Date().toISOString(), stub: true };
+export function computeFuelStockDays(members) {
+  const countries = {};
+  for (const m of members) {
+    if (!m.iso2 || m.netExporter) continue;
+    const days = m.daysOfCover;
+    if (days === null || days === undefined) continue;
+    // Derive both flags from `days` consistently to avoid contradiction
+    // when the source carries a stale belowObligation value.
+    countries[m.iso2] = {
+      fuelStockDays: days,
+      meetsObligation: days >= 90,
+      belowObligation: days < 90,
+    };
+  }
+  return countries;
 }

-function validate() {
-  return true;
+async function fetchFromRedis(key) {
+  const { url, token } = getRedisCredentials();
+  const resp = await fetch(`${url}/get/${encodeURIComponent(key)}`, {
+    headers: { Authorization: `Bearer ${token}` },
+    signal: AbortSignal.timeout(10_000),
+  });
+  if (!resp.ok) return null;
+  const data = await resp.json();
+  return data.result ? JSON.parse(data.result) : null;
+}
+
+async function fetchFuelStocks() {
+  const ieaIndex = await fetchFromRedis(IEA_SOURCE_KEY);
+  if (!ieaIndex || !Array.isArray(ieaIndex.members) || ieaIndex.members.length === 0) {
+    throw new Error(`IEA source key ${IEA_SOURCE_KEY} is empty or missing; run seed-iea-oil-stocks.mjs first`);
+  }
+
+  const countries = computeFuelStockDays(ieaIndex.members);
+  const countryCount = Object.keys(countries).length;
+  console.log(`[seed] fuel-stocks: derived ${countryCount} countries from IEA index (dataMonth: ${ieaIndex.dataMonth ?? 'unknown'})`);
+
+  return {
+    countries,
+    dataMonth: ieaIndex.dataMonth ?? null,
+    seededAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+  };
+}
+
+function validate(data) {
+  return typeof data?.countries === 'object' && Object.keys(data.countries).length >= 15;
 }

 if (process.argv[1]?.endsWith('seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.mjs')) {
  runSeed('resilience', 'recovery:fuel-stocks', CANONICAL_KEY, fetchFuelStocks, {
    validateFn: validate,
    ttlSeconds: CACHE_TTL,
-    sourceVersion: 'stub-v1',
+    sourceVersion: `iea-derived-fuel-stocks-${new Date().getFullYear()}`,
    recordCount: (data) => Object.keys(data?.countries ?? {}).length,
  }).catch((err) => {
    const _cause = err.cause ? ` (cause: ${err.cause.message || err.cause.code || err.cause})` : '';
--- a/scripts/seed-recovery-import-hhi.mjs
+++ b/scripts/seed-recovery-import-hhi.mjs
@@ -1,26 +1,153 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env node

-import { loadEnvFile, runSeed } from './_seed-utils.mjs';
+import { createRequire } from 'node:module';
+import { loadEnvFile, CHROME_UA, runSeed, sleep } from './_seed-utils.mjs';

 loadEnvFile(import.meta.url);

-const CANONICAL_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:import-hhi:v1';
-const CACHE_TTL = 35 * 24 * 3600;
+const require = createRequire(import.meta.url);
+const UN_TO_ISO2 = require('./shared/un-to-iso2.json');

-async function fetchImportHhi() {
-  console.log('[seed] import-hhi: STUB — UN Comtrade HHI computation requires per-country bilateral queries with API key, writing empty payload');
-  return { countries: {}, seededAt: new Date().toISOString(), stub: true };
+const CANONICAL_KEY = 'resilience:recovery:import-hhi:v1';
+const CACHE_TTL = 90 * 24 * 3600;
+
+// Matches the key-rotation pattern in seed-comtrade-bilateral-hs4.mjs:
+// COMTRADE_API_KEYS is a comma-separated list of subscription keys.
+const COMTRADE_KEYS = (process.env.COMTRADE_API_KEYS || '').split(',').map(k => k.trim()).filter(Boolean);
+let keyIndex = 0;
+function nextKey() { return COMTRADE_KEYS[keyIndex++ % COMTRADE_KEYS.length]; }
+
+if (COMTRADE_KEYS.length === 0) {
+  console.error('[seed] import-hhi: COMTRADE_API_KEYS is required. Set the env var (comma-separated keys) and retry.');
+}
+const COMTRADE_URL = 'https://comtradeapi.un.org/data/v1/get/C/A/HS';
+const INTER_REQUEST_DELAY_MS = 600;
+
+const ISO2_TO_UN = Object.fromEntries(
+  Object.entries(UN_TO_ISO2).map(([un, iso2]) => [iso2, un]),
+);
+
+const ALL_REPORTERS = Object.values(UN_TO_ISO2).filter(c => c.length === 2);
+
+function parseRecords(data) {
+  const records = data?.data ?? [];
+  if (!Array.isArray(records)) return [];
+  return records
+    .filter(r => r && Number(r.primaryValue ?? 0) > 0)
+    .map(r => ({
+      partnerCode: String(r.partnerCode ?? r.partner2Code ?? '000'),
+      primaryValue: Number(r.primaryValue ?? 0),
+    }));
 }

-function validate() {
-  return true;
+async function fetchImportsForReporter(reporterCode) {
+  if (COMTRADE_KEYS.length === 0) return [];
+  const url = new URL(COMTRADE_URL);
+  url.searchParams.set('reporterCode', reporterCode);
+  url.searchParams.set('flowCode', 'M');
+  url.searchParams.set('cmdCode', 'TOTAL');
+  // Omit partnerCode to get ALL bilateral partners (matching the pattern
+  // in seed-comtrade-bilateral-hs4.mjs). Setting partnerCode=0 returns
+  // only the world-aggregate row which computeHhi() then discards.
+  url.searchParams.set('period', String(new Date().getFullYear() - 1));
+  url.searchParams.set('subscription-key', nextKey());
+
+  const resp = await fetch(url.toString(), {
+    headers: { 'User-Agent': CHROME_UA, Accept: 'application/json' },
+    signal: AbortSignal.timeout(45_000),
+  });
+
+  if (resp.status === 429) {
+    console.warn(`  429 for reporter ${reporterCode}, waiting 60s...`);
+    await sleep(60_000);
+    const retry = await fetch(url.toString(), {
+      headers: { 'User-Agent': CHROME_UA, Accept: 'application/json' },
+      signal: AbortSignal.timeout(45_000),
+    });
+    if (!retry.ok) {
+      console.warn(`  Retry for reporter ${reporterCode} also failed (HTTP ${retry.status})`);
+      return [];
+    }
+    return parseRecords(await retry.json());
+  }
+
+  if (!resp.ok) {
+    console.warn(`  HTTP ${resp.status} for reporter ${reporterCode}`);
+    return [];
+  }
+  return parseRecords(await resp.json());
+}
+
+// Aggregate import values by partner (Comtrade may return multiple rows
+// per partner across commodity codes or sub-periods). Then compute HHI
+// from the per-partner totals so each partner is counted exactly once.
+export function computeHhi(records) {
+  const validRecords = records.filter(r => r.partnerCode !== '0' && r.partnerCode !== '000');
+  // Aggregate by partner: sum all rows for the same partnerCode
+  const byPartner = new Map();
+  for (const r of validRecords) {
+    byPartner.set(r.partnerCode, (byPartner.get(r.partnerCode) ?? 0) + r.primaryValue);
+  }
+  const totalValue = [...byPartner.values()].reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0);
+  if (totalValue <= 0) return null;
+  let hhi = 0;
+  for (const partnerValue of byPartner.values()) {
+    const share = partnerValue / totalValue;
+    hhi += share * share;
+  }
+  return { hhi: Math.round(hhi * 10000) / 10000, partnerCount: byPartner.size };
+}
+
+async function fetchImportHhi() {
+  const countries = {};
+  let fetched = 0;
+  let skipped = 0;
+
+  console.log(`[seed] import-hhi: fetching HS2-level import data for ${ALL_REPORTERS.length} reporters (${COMTRADE_KEYS.length} key(s), ${INTER_REQUEST_DELAY_MS}ms delay)`);
+
+  for (let i = 0; i < ALL_REPORTERS.length; i++) {
+    const iso2 = ALL_REPORTERS[i];
+    const unCode = ISO2_TO_UN[iso2];
+    if (!unCode) { skipped++; continue; }
+
+    if (fetched > 0) await sleep(INTER_REQUEST_DELAY_MS);
+
+    try {
+      const records = await fetchImportsForReporter(unCode);
+      if (records.length === 0) { skipped++; continue; }
+
+      const result = computeHhi(records);
+      if (result === null) { skipped++; continue; }
+
+      countries[iso2] = {
+        hhi: result.hhi,
+        concentrated: result.hhi > 0.25,
+        partnerCount: result.partnerCount,
+      };
+      fetched++;
+
+      if (fetched % 20 === 0) {
+        console.log(`  [${fetched}/${ALL_REPORTERS.length}] ${iso2}: HHI=${result.hhi} (${result.partnerCount} partners)`);
+      }
+    } catch (err) {
+      console.warn(`  ${iso2}: fetch failed: ${err.message}`);
+      skipped++;
+    }
+  }
+
+  console.log(`[seed] import-hhi: ${fetched} countries computed, ${skipped} skipped`);
+  return { countries, seededAt: new Date().toISOString() };
+}
+
+function validate(data) {
+  return typeof data?.countries === 'object' && Object.keys(data.countries).length >= 80;
 }

 if (process.argv[1]?.endsWith('seed-recovery-import-hhi.mjs')) {
  runSeed('resilience', 'recovery:import-hhi', CANONICAL_KEY, fetchImportHhi, {
    validateFn: validate,
    ttlSeconds: CACHE_TTL,
-    sourceVersion: 'stub-v1',
+    sourceVersion: `comtrade-hhi-${new Date().getFullYear()}`,
    recordCount: (data) => Object.keys(data?.countries ?? {}).length,
  }).catch((err) => {
    const _cause = err.cause ? ` (cause: ${err.cause.message || err.cause.code || err.cause})` : '';
--- a/server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_dimension-scorers.ts
+++ b/server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_dimension-scorers.ts
@@ -1209,8 +1209,9 @@ interface RecoveryImportHhiCountry {
 }

 interface RecoveryFuelStocksCountry {
-  stockDays?: number | null;
-  year?: number | null;
+  fuelStockDays?: number | null;
+  meetsObligation?: boolean | null;
+  belowObligation?: boolean | null;
 }

 function getRecoveryCountryEntry<T>(raw: unknown, countryCode: string): T | null {
@@ -1302,7 +1303,10 @@ export async function scoreImportConcentration(
    };
  }
  return weightedBlend([
-    { score: normalizeLowerBetter(entry.hhi, 0, 5000), weight: 1.0 },
+    // HHI is on a 0..1 scale (0 = perfectly diversified, 1 = single partner).
+    // Multiply by 10000 to convert to the traditional 0..10000 HHI scale,
+    // then normalize against the 0..5000 goalpost range (where 5000+ = max concentration).
+    { score: normalizeLowerBetter(entry.hhi * 10000, 0, 5000), weight: 1.0 },
  ]);
 }

@@ -1354,7 +1358,8 @@ export async function scoreFuelStockDays(
 ): Promise<ResilienceDimensionScore> {
  const raw = await reader(RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY);
  const entry = getRecoveryCountryEntry<RecoveryFuelStocksCountry>(raw, countryCode);
-  if (!entry || entry.stockDays == null) {
+  // The seeder writes `fuelStockDays`, not `stockDays`.
+  if (!entry || entry.fuelStockDays == null) {
    return {
      score: IMPUTE.recoveryFuelStocks.score,
      coverage: IMPUTE.recoveryFuelStocks.certaintyCoverage,
@@ -1365,7 +1370,7 @@ export async function scoreFuelStockDays(
    };
  }
  return weightedBlend([
-    { score: normalizeHigherBetter(Math.min(entry.stockDays, 120), 0, 120), weight: 1.0 },
+    { score: normalizeHigherBetter(Math.min(entry.fuelStockDays, 120), 0, 120), weight: 1.0 },
  ]);
 }

--- a/tests/helpers/resilience-fixtures.mts
+++ b/tests/helpers/resilience-fixtures.mts
@@ -405,18 +405,21 @@ export const RESILIENCE_FIXTURES: FixtureMap = {
    },
    seededAt: '2026-04-04T00:00:00.000Z',
  },
+  // HHI on 0..1 scale (seeder output). Scorer multiplies by 10000 for normalization.
+  // NO: 0.03 = very diversified, US: 0.06 = diversified, YE: 0.35 = concentrated
  'resilience:recovery:import-hhi:v1': {
    countries: {
-      NO: { hhi: 300, year: 2024 },
-      US: { hhi: 600, year: 2024 },
-      YE: { hhi: 3500, year: 2023 },
+      NO: { hhi: 0.03, concentrated: false, partnerCount: 120 },
+      US: { hhi: 0.06, concentrated: false, partnerCount: 180 },
+      YE: { hhi: 0.35, concentrated: true, partnerCount: 15 },
    },
    seededAt: '2026-04-04T00:00:00.000Z',
  },
+  // Fuel-stocks: fuelStockDays (not stockDays), matching seeder output shape
  'resilience:recovery:fuel-stocks:v1': {
    countries: {
-      NO: { stockDays: 90, year: 2025 },
-      US: { stockDays: 60, year: 2025 },
+      NO: { fuelStockDays: 90, meetsObligation: true, belowObligation: false },
+      US: { fuelStockDays: 60, meetsObligation: false, belowObligation: true },
    },
    seededAt: '2026-04-04T00:00:00.000Z',
  },
--- a/tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts
@@ -1132,7 +1132,8 @@ describe('resilience source-failure aggregation (T1.7)', () => {

  it('scoreImportConcentration: low HHI scores well', async () => {
    const us = await scoreImportConcentration('US', fixtureReader);
-    assert.ok(us.score > 85, `US with HHI 400 should score >85, got ${us.score}`);
+    // US fixture: hhi=0.06 → *10000 = 600 → normalizeLowerBetter(600, 0, 5000) ≈ 88
+    assert.ok(us.score > 80, `US with HHI 0.06 should score >80, got ${us.score}`);
  });

  it('scoreStateContinuity: derives from existing WGI + UCDP + displacement', async () => {
@@ -1144,7 +1145,9 @@ describe('resilience source-failure aggregation (T1.7)', () => {

  it('scoreFuelStockDays: country with stock data scores based on coverage', async () => {
    const no = await scoreFuelStockDays('NO', fixtureReader);
-    assert.ok(no.score > 60, `NO with 90 stock days should score >60, got ${no.score}`);
+    // NO fixture: fuelStockDays=90 → normalizeHigherBetter(90, 0, 120) = 75
+    assert.ok(no.score > 60, `NO with 90 fuelStockDays should score >60, got ${no.score}`);
+    assert.ok(no.observedWeight > 0, 'real fuel-stock data must have observed weight');
  });

  it('scoreFuelStockDays: country without fuel stock data returns unmonitored', async () => {
--- a/tests/resilience-release-gate.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-release-gate.test.mts
@@ -290,13 +290,9 @@ describe('resilience release gate', () => {
    }
  });

-  // Phase 2 T2.1 of the country-resilience reference-grade upgrade plan.
-  // The new three-pillar schema (`pillars` + `schemaVersion`) ships
-  // additively behind RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED. The default is now
-  // ON (true), so the default path emits the v2 shape: schemaVersion="2.0"
-  // with populated pillars[]. The flag-off path is exercised through the
-  // pure buildPillarList helper in tests/resilience-pillar-schema.test.mts
-  // because the env flag is read at module load time.
+  // Phase 2 T2.1: the three-pillar schema is now the default (v2 flag
+  // flipped to true in PR #2993). The response carries schemaVersion="2.0"
+  // and a non-empty pillars array with the three-pillar structure.
  it('T2.1: default response shape is v2 (pillars populated, schemaVersion="2.0")', async () => {
    installRedisFixtures();

@@ -308,11 +304,11 @@ describe('resilience release gate', () => {
    assert.equal(
      response.schemaVersion,
      '2.0',
-      'with RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED unset (default=true), response must report schemaVersion="2.0"',
+      'with RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED default true (post Phase 2), response must report schemaVersion="2.0"',
    );
    assert.ok(
-      Array.isArray(response.pillars) && response.pillars.length > 0,
-      'with the v2 flag on (default), pillars must be populated',
+      Array.isArray(response.pillars) && response.pillars.length === 3,
+      'v2 response must include 3 pillars (structural-readiness, live-shock-exposure, recovery-capacity)',
    );
  });

--- a/tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+import { describe, it } from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { readFileSync, existsSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { join, dirname } from 'node:path';
+import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url';
+
+const __dirname = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url));
+const scriptsDir = join(__dirname, '..', 'scripts');
+
+const bundleSource = readFileSync(join(scriptsDir, 'seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs'), 'utf8');
+
+const EXPECTED_ENTRIES = [
+  { label: 'Fiscal-Space', script: 'seed-recovery-fiscal-space.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:fiscal-space' },
+  { label: 'Reserve-Adequacy', script: 'seed-recovery-reserve-adequacy.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:reserve-adequacy' },
+  { label: 'External-Debt', script: 'seed-recovery-external-debt.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:external-debt' },
+  { label: 'Import-HHI', script: 'seed-recovery-import-hhi.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:import-hhi' },
+  { label: 'Fuel-Stocks', script: 'seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.mjs', seedMetaKey: 'resilience:recovery:fuel-stocks' },
+];
+
+describe('seed-bundle-resilience-recovery', () => {
+  it('has exactly 5 entries', () => {
+    const labelMatches = bundleSource.match(/label:\s*'[^']+'/g) ?? [];
+    assert.equal(labelMatches.length, 5, `Expected 5 entries, found ${labelMatches.length}`);
+  });
+
+  for (const entry of EXPECTED_ENTRIES) {
+    it(`contains entry for ${entry.label}`, () => {
+      assert.ok(bundleSource.includes(entry.label), `Missing label: ${entry.label}`);
+      assert.ok(bundleSource.includes(entry.script), `Missing script: ${entry.script}`);
+      assert.ok(bundleSource.includes(entry.seedMetaKey), `Missing seedMetaKey: ${entry.seedMetaKey}`);
+    });
+
+    it(`script ${entry.script} exists on disk`, () => {
+      const scriptPath = join(scriptsDir, entry.script);
+      assert.ok(existsSync(scriptPath), `Script not found: ${scriptPath}`);
+    });
+  }
+
+  it('all entries use 30 * DAY interval', () => {
+    const intervalMatches = bundleSource.match(/intervalMs:\s*30\s*\*\s*DAY/g) ?? [];
+    assert.equal(intervalMatches.length, 5, `Expected all 5 entries to use 30 * DAY interval`);
+  });
+
+  it('imports runBundle and DAY from _bundle-runner.mjs', () => {
+    assert.ok(bundleSource.includes("from './_bundle-runner.mjs'"), 'Missing import from _bundle-runner.mjs');
+    assert.ok(bundleSource.includes('runBundle'), 'Missing runBundle import');
+    assert.ok(bundleSource.includes('DAY'), 'Missing DAY import');
+  });
+});
--- a/tests/seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.test.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+import { describe, it } from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+
+import { computeFuelStockDays } from '../scripts/seed-recovery-fuel-stocks.mjs';
+
+describe('seed-recovery-fuel-stocks', () => {
+  it('computes fuel-stock-days from IEA members', () => {
+    const members = [
+      { iso2: 'US', daysOfCover: 120, netExporter: false, belowObligation: false },
+      { iso2: 'JP', daysOfCover: 200, netExporter: false, belowObligation: false },
+      { iso2: 'DE', daysOfCover: 85, netExporter: false, belowObligation: true },
+    ];
+    const result = computeFuelStockDays(members);
+    assert.equal(Object.keys(result).length, 3);
+    assert.equal(result.US.fuelStockDays, 120);
+    assert.equal(result.US.meetsObligation, true);
+    assert.equal(result.DE.fuelStockDays, 85);
+    assert.equal(result.DE.meetsObligation, false);
+    assert.equal(result.DE.belowObligation, true);
+  });
+
+  it('skips net exporters', () => {
+    const members = [
+      { iso2: 'NO', daysOfCover: null, netExporter: true, belowObligation: false },
+      { iso2: 'US', daysOfCover: 120, netExporter: false, belowObligation: false },
+    ];
+    const result = computeFuelStockDays(members);
+    assert.equal(Object.keys(result).length, 1);
+    assert.ok(!result.NO);
+    assert.ok(result.US);
+  });
+
+  it('skips members with null daysOfCover', () => {
+    const members = [
+      { iso2: 'CA', daysOfCover: null, netExporter: false, belowObligation: false },
+    ];
+    const result = computeFuelStockDays(members);
+    assert.equal(Object.keys(result).length, 0);
+  });
+
+  it('returns empty for empty members array', () => {
+    const result = computeFuelStockDays([]);
+    assert.equal(Object.keys(result).length, 0);
+  });
+
+  it('90-day boundary: exactly 90 meets obligation', () => {
+    const members = [
+      { iso2: 'FR', daysOfCover: 90, netExporter: false, belowObligation: false },
+    ];
+    const result = computeFuelStockDays(members);
+    assert.equal(result.FR.meetsObligation, true);
+    assert.equal(result.FR.belowObligation, false);
+  });
+
+  it('89 days is below obligation', () => {
+    const members = [
+      { iso2: 'IT', daysOfCover: 89, netExporter: false, belowObligation: true },
+    ];
+    const result = computeFuelStockDays(members);
+    assert.equal(result.IT.meetsObligation, false);
+    assert.equal(result.IT.belowObligation, true);
+  });
+});
--- a/tests/seed-recovery-import-hhi.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/seed-recovery-import-hhi.test.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+import { describe, it } from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+
+import { computeHhi } from '../scripts/seed-recovery-import-hhi.mjs';
+
+describe('seed-recovery-import-hhi', () => {
+  it('computes HHI=1 for single-partner imports', () => {
+    const records = [{ partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 1000 }];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    assert.equal(result.hhi, 1);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 1);
+  });
+
+  it('computes HHI for two equal partners', () => {
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 500 },
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 500 },
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    assert.equal(result.hhi, 0.5);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 2);
+  });
+
+  it('computes HHI for diversified imports (4 equal partners)', () => {
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 250 },
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 250 },
+      { partnerCode: '276', primaryValue: 250 },
+      { partnerCode: '392', primaryValue: 250 },
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    assert.equal(result.hhi, 0.25);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 4);
+  });
+
+  it('HHI > 0.25 flags concentrated', () => {
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 900 },
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 100 },
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    assert.ok(result.hhi > 0.25, `HHI ${result.hhi} should exceed 0.25 concentration threshold`);
+  });
+
+  it('HHI with asymmetric partners matches manual calculation', () => {
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 600 },
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 300 },
+      { partnerCode: '276', primaryValue: 100 },
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    const expected = (0.6 ** 2) + (0.3 ** 2) + (0.1 ** 2);
+    assert.ok(Math.abs(result.hhi - Math.round(expected * 10000) / 10000) < 0.001);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 3);
+  });
+
+  it('excludes world aggregate partner codes (0 and 000)', () => {
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '0', primaryValue: 5000 },
+      { partnerCode: '000', primaryValue: 5000 },
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 500 },
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 500 },
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    assert.equal(result.hhi, 0.5);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 2);
+  });
+
+  it('returns null for empty records', () => {
+    assert.equal(computeHhi([]), null);
+  });
+
+  it('returns null when all records are world aggregates', () => {
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '0', primaryValue: 1000 },
+      { partnerCode: '000', primaryValue: 2000 },
+    ];
+    assert.equal(computeHhi(records), null);
+  });
+
+  // P1 fix: multi-row per partner must aggregate before computing shares
+  it('aggregates multiple rows for the same partner before computing shares', () => {
+    // Simulates Comtrade returning multiple commodity rows for partner 156
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 300 },
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 200 },  // same partner, different commodity
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 500 },
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    // After aggregation: 156=500, 842=500 → HHI = 0.5^2 + 0.5^2 = 0.5
+    assert.equal(result.hhi, 0.5);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 2, 'partnerCount must count unique partners, not rows');
+  });
+
+  it('handles multi-year duplicate rows correctly', () => {
+    // Simulates Comtrade returning the same partner across 2 years
+    const records = [
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 400 },  // year 1
+      { partnerCode: '156', primaryValue: 600 },  // year 2
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 200 },  // year 1
+      { partnerCode: '842', primaryValue: 300 },  // year 2
+    ];
+    const result = computeHhi(records);
+    // Aggregated: 156=1000, 842=500 → shares: 0.667, 0.333
+    // HHI = 0.667^2 + 0.333^2 ≈ 0.5556
+    assert.ok(Math.abs(result.hhi - 0.5556) < 0.01, `HHI ${result.hhi} should be ~0.5556`);
+    assert.equal(result.partnerCount, 2);
+  });
+});