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fix(forecast): allocate publish output by family (#1868)
* fix(forecast): allocate publish output by family * fix(forecast): backfill deferred family selections
This commit is contained in:
Elie Habib
@@ -36,6 +36,10 @@ const MAX_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS_PER_SITUATION = 3;
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const MAX_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS_PER_SITUATION_DOMAIN = 2;
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const MAX_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS_PER_FAMILY = 4;
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const MAX_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS_PER_FAMILY_DOMAIN = 2;
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const MIN_TARGET_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS = 10;
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const MAX_TARGET_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS = 14;
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const MAX_PRESELECTED_FORECASTS_PER_FAMILY = 3;
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const MAX_PRESELECTED_FORECASTS_PER_SITUATION = 2;
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const CYBER_MIN_THREATS_PER_COUNTRY = 5;
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const CYBER_MAX_FORECASTS = 12;
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const CYBER_SCORE_TYPE_MULTIPLIER = 1.5; // bonus per distinct threat type
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@@ -4563,6 +4567,7 @@ function summarizePublishFiltering(predictions) {
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);
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return {
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suppressedFamilySelection: reasonCounts.family_selection || 0,
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suppressedWeakFallback: reasonCounts.weak_fallback || 0,
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suppressedSituationOverlap: reasonCounts.situation_overlap || 0,
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suppressedSituationCap: reasonCounts.situation_cap || 0,
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@@ -4581,6 +4586,173 @@ function summarizePublishFiltering(predictions) {
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};
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}
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function getPublishSelectionTarget(predictions = []) {
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const familyCount = new Set(predictions.map((pred) => pred.familyContext?.id).filter(Boolean)).size;
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const situationCount = new Set(predictions.map((pred) => pred.situationContext?.id).filter(Boolean)).size;
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const dynamicTarget = Math.ceil((familyCount * 1.5) + Math.min(4, situationCount * 0.15));
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return Math.max(
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Math.min(predictions.length, MIN_TARGET_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS),
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Math.min(predictions.length, MAX_TARGET_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS, dynamicTarget || MIN_TARGET_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS),
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);
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}
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function computePublishSelectionScore(pred) {
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const readiness = pred?.readiness?.overall ?? scoreForecastReadiness(pred).overall;
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const priority = typeof pred?.analysisPriority === 'number' ? pred.analysisPriority : computeAnalysisPriority(pred);
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const narrativeSource = pred?.traceMeta?.narrativeSource || 'fallback';
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const familyBreadth = Math.min(1, ((pred.familyContext?.forecastCount || 1) - 1) / 6);
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const situationBreadth = Math.min(1, ((pred.situationContext?.forecastCount || 1) - 1) / 4);
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const signalBreadth = Math.min(1, ((pred.situationContext?.topSignals || []).length || 0) / 4);
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const domainLift = ['market', 'military', 'supply_chain', 'infrastructure'].includes(pred.domain) ? 0.02 : 0;
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const enrichedLift = narrativeSource.startsWith('llm_') ? 0.025 : 0;
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return +(
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(priority * 0.55) +
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(readiness * 0.2) +
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((pred.probability || 0) * 0.15) +
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((pred.confidence || 0) * 0.07) +
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(familyBreadth * 0.015) +
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(situationBreadth * 0.01) +
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(signalBreadth * 0.01) +
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domainLift +
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enrichedLift
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).toFixed(6);
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}
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function selectPublishedForecastPool(predictions, options = {}) {
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const eligible = (predictions || []).filter((pred) => (pred?.probability || 0) > (options.minProbability ?? PUBLISH_MIN_PROBABILITY));
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const targetCount = options.targetCount ?? getPublishSelectionTarget(eligible);
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const selected = [];
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const selectedIds = new Set();
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const familyCounts = new Map();
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const familyDomainCounts = new Map();
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const situationCounts = new Map();
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const domainCounts = new Map();
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for (const pred of predictions || []) pred.publishSelectionScore = computePublishSelectionScore(pred);
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const ranked = eligible
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.slice()
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.sort((a, b) => (b.publishSelectionScore || 0) - (a.publishSelectionScore || 0)
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|| (b.analysisPriority || 0) - (a.analysisPriority || 0)
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|| (b.probability || 0) - (a.probability || 0));
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const familyBuckets = new Map();
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for (const pred of ranked) {
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const familyId = pred.familyContext?.id || `solo:${pred.situationContext?.id || pred.id}`;
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if (!familyBuckets.has(familyId)) familyBuckets.set(familyId, []);
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familyBuckets.get(familyId).push(pred);
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}
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const orderedFamilyIds = [...familyBuckets.keys()].sort((leftId, rightId) => {
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const left = familyBuckets.get(leftId) || [];
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const right = familyBuckets.get(rightId) || [];
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const leftTop = left[0];
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const rightTop = right[0];
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const leftScore = (leftTop?.publishSelectionScore || 0) + Math.min(0.05, ((leftTop?.familyContext?.forecastCount || 1) - 1) * 0.005);
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const rightScore = (rightTop?.publishSelectionScore || 0) + Math.min(0.05, ((rightTop?.familyContext?.forecastCount || 1) - 1) * 0.005);
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return rightScore - leftScore || leftId.localeCompare(rightId);
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});
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function canSelect(pred, mode = 'fill') {
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if (!pred || selectedIds.has(pred.id)) return false;
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const familyId = pred.familyContext?.id || `solo:${pred.situationContext?.id || pred.id}`;
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const familyTotal = familyCounts.get(familyId) || 0;
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const familyDomainKey = `${familyId}:${pred.domain}`;
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const familyDomainTotal = familyDomainCounts.get(familyDomainKey) || 0;
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const situationId = pred.situationContext?.id || pred.id;
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const situationTotal = situationCounts.get(situationId) || 0;
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if (familyTotal >= Math.min(MAX_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS_PER_FAMILY, MAX_PRESELECTED_FORECASTS_PER_FAMILY)) return false;
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if (familyDomainTotal >= MAX_PUBLISHED_FORECASTS_PER_FAMILY_DOMAIN) return false;
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if (situationTotal >= MAX_PRESELECTED_FORECASTS_PER_SITUATION) return false;
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if (mode === 'diversity') {
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const domainTotal = domainCounts.get(pred.domain) || 0;
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if (domainTotal >= 2 && !['market', 'military', 'supply_chain', 'infrastructure'].includes(pred.domain)) return false;
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}
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return true;
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}
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function take(pred) {
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const familyId = pred.familyContext?.id || `solo:${pred.situationContext?.id || pred.id}`;
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const familyDomainKey = `${familyId}:${pred.domain}`;
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const situationId = pred.situationContext?.id || pred.id;
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selected.push(pred);
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selectedIds.add(pred.id);
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familyCounts.set(familyId, (familyCounts.get(familyId) || 0) + 1);
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familyDomainCounts.set(familyDomainKey, (familyDomainCounts.get(familyDomainKey) || 0) + 1);
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situationCounts.set(situationId, (situationCounts.get(situationId) || 0) + 1);
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domainCounts.set(pred.domain, (domainCounts.get(pred.domain) || 0) + 1);
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}
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for (const familyId of orderedFamilyIds) {
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if (selected.length >= targetCount) break;
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const bucket = familyBuckets.get(familyId) || [];
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const choice = bucket.find((pred) => canSelect(pred, 'diversity'));
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if (choice) take(choice);
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}
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for (const familyId of orderedFamilyIds) {
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if (selected.length >= targetCount) break;
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const bucket = familyBuckets.get(familyId) || [];
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const selectedDomains = new Set(selected.filter((pred) => (pred.familyContext?.id || `solo:${pred.situationContext?.id || pred.id}`) === familyId).map((pred) => pred.domain));
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const choice = bucket.find((pred) => !selectedDomains.has(pred.domain) && canSelect(pred, 'diversity'));
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if (choice) take(choice);
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}
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for (const pred of ranked) {
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if (selected.length >= targetCount) break;
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if (canSelect(pred, 'fill')) take(pred);
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}
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const deferredCandidates = ranked.filter((pred) => !selectedIds.has(pred.id));
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if (deferredCandidates.length > 0) {
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console.log(` [filterPublished] Deferred ${deferredCandidates.length} forecast(s) in family selection`);
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}
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const result = selected
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.slice()
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.sort((a, b) => (b.analysisPriority || 0) - (a.analysisPriority || 0)
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|| (b.publishSelectionScore || 0) - (a.publishSelectionScore || 0)
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|| (b.probability || 0) - (a.probability || 0));
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result.deferredCandidates = deferredCandidates;
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result.targetCount = targetCount;
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return result;
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}
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function buildPublishedForecastArtifacts(candidatePool, fullRunSituationClusters) {
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const filteredPredictions = filterPublishedForecasts(candidatePool);
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const filteredSituationClusters = projectSituationClusters(fullRunSituationClusters, filteredPredictions);
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attachSituationContext(filteredPredictions, filteredSituationClusters);
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const filteredSituationFamilies = attachSituationFamilyContext(filteredPredictions, buildSituationFamilies(filteredSituationClusters));
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const publishedPredictions = applySituationFamilyCaps(filteredPredictions, filteredSituationFamilies);
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const publishedSituationClusters = projectSituationClusters(fullRunSituationClusters, publishedPredictions);
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attachSituationContext(publishedPredictions, publishedSituationClusters);
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const publishedSituationFamilies = attachSituationFamilyContext(publishedPredictions, buildSituationFamilies(publishedSituationClusters));
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refreshPublishedNarratives(publishedPredictions);
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return {
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filteredPredictions,
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filteredSituationClusters,
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filteredSituationFamilies,
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publishedPredictions,
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publishedSituationClusters,
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publishedSituationFamilies,
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};
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}
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function markDeferredFamilySelection(predictions, selectedPool) {
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const selectedIds = new Set((selectedPool || []).map((pred) => pred.id));
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for (const pred of predictions || []) {
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if ((pred?.probability || 0) <= PUBLISH_MIN_PROBABILITY) continue;
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if (selectedIds.has(pred.id)) continue;
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if (pred.publishDiagnostics?.reason) continue;
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pred.publishDiagnostics = {
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reason: 'family_selection',
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familyId: pred.familyContext?.id || '',
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situationId: pred.situationContext?.id || '',
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targetCount: selectedPool?.targetCount || 0,
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};
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}
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}
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function filterPublishedForecasts(predictions, minProbability = PUBLISH_MIN_PROBABILITY) {
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let weakFallbackCount = 0;
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let overlapSuppressedCount = 0;
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@@ -5583,16 +5755,23 @@ async function fetchForecasts() {
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const enrichmentMeta = await enrichScenariosWithLLM(predictions);
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populateFallbackNarratives(predictions);
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const initiallyPublishedPredictions = filterPublishedForecasts(predictions);
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const initiallyPublishedSituationClusters = projectSituationClusters(fullRunSituationClusters, initiallyPublishedPredictions);
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attachSituationContext(initiallyPublishedPredictions, initiallyPublishedSituationClusters);
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const initiallyPublishedSituationFamilies = attachSituationFamilyContext(initiallyPublishedPredictions, buildSituationFamilies(initiallyPublishedSituationClusters));
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const publishedPredictions = applySituationFamilyCaps(initiallyPublishedPredictions, initiallyPublishedSituationFamilies);
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const publishSelectionPool = selectPublishedForecastPool(predictions);
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let finalSelectionPool = [...publishSelectionPool];
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finalSelectionPool.targetCount = publishSelectionPool.targetCount || finalSelectionPool.length;
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const deferredCandidates = [...(publishSelectionPool.deferredCandidates || [])];
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let publishArtifacts = buildPublishedForecastArtifacts(finalSelectionPool, fullRunSituationClusters);
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while (publishArtifacts.publishedPredictions.length < (finalSelectionPool.targetCount || 0) && deferredCandidates.length > 0) {
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finalSelectionPool.push(deferredCandidates.shift());
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publishArtifacts = buildPublishedForecastArtifacts(finalSelectionPool, fullRunSituationClusters);
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}
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markDeferredFamilySelection(predictions, finalSelectionPool);
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const initiallyPublishedPredictions = publishArtifacts.filteredPredictions;
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const initiallyPublishedSituationClusters = publishArtifacts.filteredSituationClusters;
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const initiallyPublishedSituationFamilies = publishArtifacts.filteredSituationFamilies;
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const publishedPredictions = publishArtifacts.publishedPredictions;
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const publishTelemetry = summarizePublishFiltering(predictions);
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const publishedSituationClusters = projectSituationClusters(fullRunSituationClusters, publishedPredictions);
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attachSituationContext(publishedPredictions, publishedSituationClusters);
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const publishedSituationFamilies = attachSituationFamilyContext(publishedPredictions, buildSituationFamilies(publishedSituationClusters));
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refreshPublishedNarratives(publishedPredictions);
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const publishedSituationClusters = publishArtifacts.publishedSituationClusters;
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const publishedSituationFamilies = publishArtifacts.publishedSituationFamilies;
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if (publishedPredictions.length !== predictions.length) {
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console.log(` Filtered ${predictions.length - publishedPredictions.length} forecasts at publish floor > ${PUBLISH_MIN_PROBABILITY}`);
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}
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@@ -5603,6 +5782,7 @@ async function fetchForecasts() {
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generatedAt: Date.now(),
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enrichmentMeta,
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publishTelemetry,
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publishSelectionPool,
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situationClusters: publishedSituationClusters,
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situationFamilies: publishedSituationFamilies,
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fullRunSituationClusters,
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@@ -5778,6 +5958,8 @@ export {
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scoreForecastReadiness,
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computeAnalysisPriority,
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rankForecastsForAnalysis,
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selectPublishedForecastPool,
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buildPublishedForecastArtifacts,
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filterPublishedForecasts,
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applySituationFamilyCaps,
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summarizePublishFiltering,
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@@ -50,6 +50,8 @@ import {
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scoreForecastReadiness,
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computeAnalysisPriority,
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rankForecastsForAnalysis,
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selectPublishedForecastPool,
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buildPublishedForecastArtifacts,
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filterPublishedForecasts,
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applySituationFamilyCaps,
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selectForecastsForEnrichment,
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@@ -2006,6 +2008,107 @@ describe('forecast quality gating', () => {
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assert.equal(telemetry.cappedFamilies, 1);
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});
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it('preselects published forecasts across families before overlap suppression', () => {
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const preds = [
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makePrediction('conflict', 'Iran', 'Escalation risk: Iran', 0.72, 0.65, '7d', [{ type: 'ucdp', value: 'Iran events elevated', weight: 0.4 }]),
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makePrediction('political', 'Iran', 'Political instability: Iran', 0.58, 0.59, '14d', [{ type: 'news_corroboration', value: 'Emergency meetings continue', weight: 0.35 }]),
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makePrediction('market', 'Middle East', 'Oil repricing risk: Gulf', 0.55, 0.57, '30d', [{ type: 'prediction_market', value: 'Oil reprices higher', weight: 0.3 }]),
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makePrediction('supply_chain', 'Persian Gulf', 'Shipping disruption: Persian Gulf', 0.53, 0.56, '14d', [{ type: 'chokepoint', value: 'Routing delays persist', weight: 0.35 }]),
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makePrediction('conflict', 'Ukraine', 'Escalation risk: Ukraine', 0.64, 0.61, '7d', [{ type: 'ucdp', value: 'Ukraine conflict remains active', weight: 0.42 }]),
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makePrediction('market', 'Black Sea', 'Grain pricing pressure: Black Sea', 0.5, 0.54, '30d', [{ type: 'prediction_market', value: 'Grain risk premium widens', weight: 0.28 }]),
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];
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buildForecastCases(preds);
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for (const [index, pred] of preds.entries()) {
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pred.traceMeta = { narrativeSource: index < 2 ? 'llm_combined' : 'fallback' };
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pred.readiness = { overall: 0.7 - (index * 0.04) };
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pred.analysisPriority = 0.24 - (index * 0.02);
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}
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const familyA = { id: 'fam-middle-east', label: 'Middle East pressure family', forecastCount: 4, situationCount: 4, situationIds: ['sit-iran-conflict', 'sit-iran-political', 'sit-gulf-market', 'sit-gulf-shipping'] };
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const familyB = { id: 'fam-black-sea', label: 'Black Sea pressure family', forecastCount: 2, situationCount: 2, situationIds: ['sit-ukraine-conflict', 'sit-blacksea-market'] };
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const contexts = [
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['sit-iran-conflict', 'Iran conflict situation', familyA],
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['sit-iran-political', 'Iran political situation', familyA],
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['sit-gulf-market', 'Gulf market situation', familyA],
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['sit-gulf-shipping', 'Persian Gulf shipping situation', familyA],
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['sit-ukraine-conflict', 'Ukraine conflict situation', familyB],
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['sit-blacksea-market', 'Black Sea market situation', familyB],
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];
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for (const [index, pred] of preds.entries()) {
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const [id, label, family] = contexts[index];
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pred.situationContext = { id, label, forecastCount: 1, topSignals: [{ type: 'news_corroboration', count: 1 }] };
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pred.caseFile.situationContext = pred.situationContext;
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pred.familyContext = family;
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pred.caseFile.familyContext = family;
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}
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const selected = selectPublishedForecastPool(preds);
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assert.ok(selected.some((pred) => pred.familyContext?.id === familyA.id));
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assert.ok(selected.some((pred) => pred.familyContext?.id === familyB.id));
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assert.ok(selected.some((pred) => pred.domain === 'market'));
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assert.ok((selected.deferredCandidates || []).length >= 1);
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});
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it('backfills deferred forecasts when filtering drops a preselected duplicate', () => {
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const primary = makePrediction('conflict', 'Iran', 'Escalation risk: Iran', 0.74, 0.66, '7d', [{ type: 'ucdp', value: 'Iran events elevated', weight: 0.4 }]);
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const duplicate = makePrediction('conflict', 'Iran', 'Retaliatory conflict risk: Iran', 0.69, 0.58, '7d', [{ type: 'ucdp', value: 'Iran events elevated', weight: 0.36 }]);
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const political = makePrediction('political', 'Iran', 'Political instability: Iran', 0.59, 0.57, '14d', [{ type: 'news_corroboration', value: 'Emergency cabinet meetings continue', weight: 0.35 }]);
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const supply = makePrediction('supply_chain', 'Persian Gulf', 'Shipping disruption: Persian Gulf', 0.54, 0.56, '14d', [{ type: 'chokepoint', value: 'Routing delays persist', weight: 0.34 }]);
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buildForecastCases([primary, duplicate, political, supply]);
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const fullRunSituationClusters = [
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{ id: 'sit-iran-conflict', label: 'Iran conflict situation', dominantRegion: 'Iran', dominantDomain: 'conflict', regions: ['Iran'], domains: ['conflict'], actors: ['Iran'], branchKinds: ['base'], forecastIds: [primary.id, duplicate.id], forecastCount: 2, avgProbability: 0.715, avgConfidence: 0.62, topSignals: [{ type: 'ucdp', count: 2 }], sampleTitles: [primary.title, duplicate.title] },
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{ id: 'sit-iran-political', label: 'Iran political situation', dominantRegion: 'Iran', dominantDomain: 'political', regions: ['Iran'], domains: ['political'], actors: ['Iran'], branchKinds: ['base'], forecastIds: [political.id], forecastCount: 1, avgProbability: 0.59, avgConfidence: 0.57, topSignals: [{ type: 'news_corroboration', count: 1 }], sampleTitles: [political.title] },
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{ id: 'sit-gulf-shipping', label: 'Persian Gulf shipping situation', dominantRegion: 'Persian Gulf', dominantDomain: 'supply_chain', regions: ['Persian Gulf'], domains: ['supply_chain'], actors: ['Shipping'], branchKinds: ['base'], forecastIds: [supply.id], forecastCount: 1, avgProbability: 0.54, avgConfidence: 0.56, topSignals: [{ type: 'chokepoint', count: 1 }], sampleTitles: [supply.title] },
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];
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const familyA = { id: 'fam-middle-east', label: 'Middle East pressure family', forecastCount: 3, situationCount: 2, situationIds: ['sit-iran-conflict', 'sit-iran-political'] };
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const familyB = { id: 'fam-gulf', label: 'Persian Gulf pressure family', forecastCount: 1, situationCount: 1, situationIds: ['sit-gulf-shipping'] };
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for (const pred of [primary, duplicate, political, supply]) {
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pred.traceMeta = { narrativeSource: 'fallback' };
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pred.readiness = { overall: 0.7 };
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}
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primary.analysisPriority = 0.25;
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duplicate.analysisPriority = 0.2;
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political.analysisPriority = 0.18;
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supply.analysisPriority = 0.14;
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primary.situationContext = fullRunSituationClusters[0];
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duplicate.situationContext = fullRunSituationClusters[0];
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political.situationContext = fullRunSituationClusters[1];
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supply.situationContext = fullRunSituationClusters[2];
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primary.caseFile.situationContext = primary.situationContext;
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duplicate.caseFile.situationContext = duplicate.situationContext;
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political.caseFile.situationContext = political.situationContext;
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supply.caseFile.situationContext = supply.situationContext;
|
||||
primary.familyContext = familyA;
|
||||
duplicate.familyContext = familyA;
|
||||
political.familyContext = familyA;
|
||||
supply.familyContext = familyB;
|
||||
primary.caseFile.familyContext = familyA;
|
||||
duplicate.caseFile.familyContext = familyA;
|
||||
political.caseFile.familyContext = familyA;
|
||||
supply.caseFile.familyContext = familyB;
|
||||
|
||||
const pool = selectPublishedForecastPool([primary, duplicate, political], { targetCount: 3 });
|
||||
assert.equal(pool.length, 3);
|
||||
assert.equal(pool.deferredCandidates.length, 0);
|
||||
|
||||
const expandedPool = selectPublishedForecastPool([primary, duplicate, political, supply], { targetCount: 3 });
|
||||
let candidatePool = [...expandedPool];
|
||||
let deferred = [...expandedPool.deferredCandidates];
|
||||
let artifacts = buildPublishedForecastArtifacts(candidatePool, fullRunSituationClusters);
|
||||
while (artifacts.publishedPredictions.length < expandedPool.targetCount && deferred.length > 0) {
|
||||
candidatePool.push(deferred.shift());
|
||||
artifacts = buildPublishedForecastArtifacts(candidatePool, fullRunSituationClusters);
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.publishedPredictions.length, 3);
|
||||
assert.ok(artifacts.publishedPredictions.some((pred) => pred.id === supply.id));
|
||||
assert.ok(!artifacts.publishedPredictions.some((pred) => pred.id === duplicate.id));
|
||||
});
|
||||
|
||||
it('does not report capped situations when a situation only reaches the cap without dropping anything', () => {
|
||||
const preds = [
|
||||
makePrediction('conflict', 'Iran', 'Escalation risk: Iran', 0.66, 0.6, '7d', [
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -80,6 +80,7 @@ describe('forecast trace artifact builder', () => {
|
||||
predictions: [a, b],
|
||||
fullRunPredictions: [a, b, c],
|
||||
publishTelemetry: {
|
||||
suppressedFamilySelection: 2,
|
||||
suppressedWeakFallback: 1,
|
||||
suppressedSituationOverlap: 2,
|
||||
suppressedSituationCap: 1,
|
||||
@@ -149,6 +150,7 @@ describe('forecast trace artifact builder', () => {
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.traced.fallbackRate, 1);
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.traced.enrichedRate, 0);
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.publish.suppressedSituationOverlap, 2);
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.publish.suppressedFamilySelection, 2);
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.publish.suppressedSituationCap, 1);
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.publish.suppressedSituationDomainCap, 1);
|
||||
assert.equal(artifacts.summary.quality.publish.cappedSituations, 1);
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user