feat(resilience): baseline vs stress scoring engine (#2821)

* feat(resilience): baseline vs stress scoring engine Splits the resilience index into structural capacity (baselineScore) and active disruption (stressScore) using the dimension type tags from RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES (baseline/stress/mixed). overallScore = baselineScore * (1 - stressFactor) where stressFactor is clamped to [0, 0.5]. Mixed dimensions contribute to both scores. Proto fields 10-12 added (baseline_score, stress_score, stress_factor). Widget updated to display baseline/stress breakdown. Cache keys bumped v4 -> v5 for atomic rollout. * fix(resilience): bump history key to v2 for baseline/stress formula change The overallScore formula changed from domain-weighted-sum to baselineScore * (1 - stressFactor). Old history entries are incomparable, causing fake change30d drops of -20 to -30 points. Versioned history key starts a clean series.
2026-04-25 17:14:57 +02:00 · 2026-04-08 13:11:31 +04:00
parent 80b24d8686
commit f53c05599a
16 changed files with 210 additions and 31 deletions
--- a/api/health.js
+++ b/api/health.js
@@ -136,7 +136,7 @@ const STANDALONE_KEYS = {
  climateNews:              'climate:news-intelligence:v1',
  pizzint:                  'intelligence:pizzint:seed:v1',
  resilienceStaticIndex:    'resilience:static:index:v1',
-  resilienceRanking:        'resilience:ranking:v4',
+  resilienceRanking:        'resilience:ranking:v5',
  productCatalog:           'product-catalog:v2',
  energySpineCountries:     'energy:spine:v1:_countries',
  energyExposure:           'energy:exposure:v1:index',
--- a/docs/api/ResilienceService.openapi.json
+++ b/docs/api/ResilienceService.openapi.json
@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"components":{"schemas":{"Error":{"description":"Error is returned when a handler encounters an error. It contains a simple error message that the developer can customize.","properties":{"message":{"description":"Error message (e.g., 'user not found', 'database connection failed')","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"FieldViolation":{"description":"FieldViolation describes a single validation error for a specific field.","properties":{"description":{"description":"Human-readable description of the validation violation (e.g., 'must be a valid email address', 'required field missing')","type":"string"},"field":{"description":"The field path that failed validation (e.g., 'user.email' for nested fields). For header validation, this will be the header name (e.g., 'X-API-Key')","type":"string"}},"required":["field","description"],"type":"object"},"GetResilienceRankingRequest":{"type":"object"},"GetResilienceRankingResponse":{"properties":{"greyedOut":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceRankingItem"},"type":"array"},"items":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceRankingItem"},"type":"array"}},"type":"object"},"GetResilienceScoreRequest":{"properties":{"countryCode":{"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"GetResilienceScoreResponse":{"properties":{"change30d":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"countryCode":{"type":"string"},"domains":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceDomain"},"type":"array"},"imputationShare":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"level":{"type":"string"},"lowConfidence":{"type":"boolean"},"overallScore":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"trend":{"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"ResilienceDimension":{"properties":{"coverage":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"id":{"type":"string"},"imputedWeight":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"observedWeight":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"score":{"format":"double","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"ResilienceDomain":{"properties":{"dimensions":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceDimension"},"type":"array"},"id":{"type":"string"},"score":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"weight":{"format":"double","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"ResilienceRankingItem":{"properties":{"countryCode":{"type":"string"},"level":{"type":"string"},"lowConfidence":{"type":"boolean"},"overallCoverage":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"overallScore":{"format":"double","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"ValidationError":{"description":"ValidationError is returned when request validation fails. It contains a list of field violations describing what went wrong.","properties":{"violations":{"description":"List of validation violations","items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/FieldViolation"},"type":"array"}},"required":["violations"],"type":"object"}}},"info":{"title":"ResilienceService API","version":"1.0.0"},"openapi":"3.1.0","paths":{"/api/resilience/v1/get-resilience-ranking":{"get":{"operationId":"GetResilienceRanking","responses":{"200":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/GetResilienceRankingResponse"}}},"description":"Successful response"},"400":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ValidationError"}}},"description":"Validation error"},"default":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/Error"}}},"description":"Error response"}},"summary":"GetResilienceRanking","tags":["ResilienceService"]}},"/api/resilience/v1/get-resilience-score":{"get":{"operationId":"GetResilienceScore","parameters":[{"in":"query","name":"countryCode","required":true,"schema":{"type":"string"}}],"responses":{"200":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/GetResilienceScoreResponse"}}},"description":"Successful response"},"400":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ValidationError"}}},"description":"Validation error"},"default":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/Error"}}},"description":"Error response"}},"summary":"GetResilienceScore","tags":["ResilienceService"]}}}}
+{"components":{"schemas":{"Error":{"description":"Error is returned when a handler encounters an error. It contains a simple error message that the developer can customize.","properties":{"message":{"description":"Error message (e.g., 'user not found', 'database connection failed')","type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"FieldViolation":{"description":"FieldViolation describes a single validation error for a specific field.","properties":{"description":{"description":"Human-readable description of the validation violation (e.g., 'must be a valid email address', 'required field missing')","type":"string"},"field":{"description":"The field path that failed validation (e.g., 'user.email' for nested fields). For header validation, this will be the header name (e.g., 'X-API-Key')","type":"string"}},"required":["field","description"],"type":"object"},"GetResilienceRankingRequest":{"type":"object"},"GetResilienceRankingResponse":{"properties":{"greyedOut":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceRankingItem"},"type":"array"},"items":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceRankingItem"},"type":"array"}},"type":"object"},"GetResilienceScoreRequest":{"properties":{"countryCode":{"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"GetResilienceScoreResponse":{"properties":{"baselineScore":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"change30d":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"countryCode":{"type":"string"},"domains":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceDomain"},"type":"array"},"imputationShare":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"level":{"type":"string"},"lowConfidence":{"type":"boolean"},"overallScore":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"stressFactor":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"stressScore":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"trend":{"type":"string"}},"type":"object"},"ResilienceDimension":{"properties":{"coverage":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"id":{"type":"string"},"imputedWeight":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"observedWeight":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"score":{"format":"double","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"ResilienceDomain":{"properties":{"dimensions":{"items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ResilienceDimension"},"type":"array"},"id":{"type":"string"},"score":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"weight":{"format":"double","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"ResilienceRankingItem":{"properties":{"countryCode":{"type":"string"},"level":{"type":"string"},"lowConfidence":{"type":"boolean"},"overallCoverage":{"format":"double","type":"number"},"overallScore":{"format":"double","type":"number"}},"type":"object"},"ValidationError":{"description":"ValidationError is returned when request validation fails. It contains a list of field violations describing what went wrong.","properties":{"violations":{"description":"List of validation violations","items":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/FieldViolation"},"type":"array"}},"required":["violations"],"type":"object"}}},"info":{"title":"ResilienceService API","version":"1.0.0"},"openapi":"3.1.0","paths":{"/api/resilience/v1/get-resilience-ranking":{"get":{"operationId":"GetResilienceRanking","responses":{"200":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/GetResilienceRankingResponse"}}},"description":"Successful response"},"400":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ValidationError"}}},"description":"Validation error"},"default":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/Error"}}},"description":"Error response"}},"summary":"GetResilienceRanking","tags":["ResilienceService"]}},"/api/resilience/v1/get-resilience-score":{"get":{"operationId":"GetResilienceScore","parameters":[{"in":"query","name":"countryCode","required":true,"schema":{"type":"string"}}],"responses":{"200":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/GetResilienceScoreResponse"}}},"description":"Successful response"},"400":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/ValidationError"}}},"description":"Validation error"},"default":{"content":{"application/json":{"schema":{"$ref":"#/components/schemas/Error"}}},"description":"Error response"}},"summary":"GetResilienceScore","tags":["ResilienceService"]}}}}
--- a/docs/api/ResilienceService.openapi.yaml
+++ b/docs/api/ResilienceService.openapi.yaml
@@ -121,6 +121,15 @@ components:
                imputationShare:
                    type: number
                    format: double
+                baselineScore:
+                    type: number
+                    format: double
+                stressScore:
+                    type: number
+                    format: double
+                stressFactor:
+                    type: number
+                    format: double
        ResilienceDomain:
            type: object
            properties:
--- a/proto/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/get_resilience_score.proto
+++ b/proto/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/get_resilience_score.proto
@@ -19,4 +19,7 @@ message GetResilienceScoreResponse {
  double change_30d = 7;
  bool low_confidence = 8;
  double imputation_share = 9;
+  double baseline_score = 10;
+  double stress_score = 11;
+  double stress_factor = 12;
 }
--- a/scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs
+++ b/scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs
@@ -27,8 +27,8 @@ loadEnvFile(import.meta.url);
 const LOCK_DOMAIN = 'resilience:scores';
 const LOCK_TTL_MS = 30 * 60 * 1000; // 30 min

-export const RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX = 'resilience:score:v4:';
-export const RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY = 'resilience:ranking:v4';
+export const RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX = 'resilience:score:v5:';
+export const RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY = 'resilience:ranking:v5';
 export const RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_TTL_SECONDS = 6 * 60 * 60;
 export const RESILIENCE_STATIC_INDEX_KEY = 'resilience:static:index:v1';

--- a/server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts
+++ b/server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts
@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import { detectTrend, round } from '../../../_shared/resilience-stats';
 import {
  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_DOMAINS,
  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER,
+  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES,
  RESILIENCE_DOMAIN_ORDER,
  createMemoizedSeedReader,
  getResilienceDomainWeight,
@@ -21,9 +22,9 @@ import {

 export const RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_TTL_SECONDS = 6 * 60 * 60;
 export const RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_TTL_SECONDS = 6 * 60 * 60;
-export const RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX = 'resilience:score:v4:';
-export const RESILIENCE_HISTORY_KEY_PREFIX = 'resilience:history:';
-export const RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY = 'resilience:ranking:v4';
+export const RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX = 'resilience:score:v5:';
+export const RESILIENCE_HISTORY_KEY_PREFIX = 'resilience:history:v2:';
+export const RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY = 'resilience:ranking:v5';
 export const RESILIENCE_STATIC_INDEX_KEY = 'resilience:static:index:v1';

 const LOW_CONFIDENCE_COVERAGE_THRESHOLD = 0.55;
@@ -151,6 +152,9 @@ export async function ensureResilienceScoreCached(countryCode: string, reader?:
    return {
      countryCode: '',
      overallScore: 0,
+      baselineScore: 0,
+      stressScore: 0,
+      stressFactor: 0.5,
      level: 'unknown',
      domains: [],
      trend: 'stable',
@@ -167,9 +171,18 @@ export async function ensureResilienceScoreCached(countryCode: string, reader?:
      const scoreMap = await scoreAllDimensions(normalizedCountryCode, reader);
      const dimensions = buildDimensionList(scoreMap);
      const domains = buildDomainList(dimensions);
-      const overallScore = round(
-        domains.reduce((sum, domain) => sum + domain.score * domain.weight, 0),
-      );
+
+      const baselineDims: ResilienceDimension[] = [];
+      const stressDims: ResilienceDimension[] = [];
+      for (const dim of dimensions) {
+        const dimType = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[dim.id as ResilienceDimensionId];
+        if (dimType === 'baseline' || dimType === 'mixed') baselineDims.push(dim);
+        if (dimType === 'stress' || dimType === 'mixed') stressDims.push(dim);
+      }
+      const baselineScore = round(coverageWeightedMean(baselineDims));
+      const stressScore = round(coverageWeightedMean(stressDims));
+      const stressFactor = round(Math.max(0, Math.min(1 - stressScore / 100, 0.5)), 4);
+      const overallScore = round(baselineScore * (1 - stressFactor));

      const totalImputed = dimensions.reduce((sum, d) => sum + (d.imputedWeight ?? 0), 0);
      const totalObserved = dimensions.reduce((sum, d) => sum + (d.observedWeight ?? 0), 0);
@@ -187,6 +200,9 @@ export async function ensureResilienceScoreCached(countryCode: string, reader?:
      return {
        countryCode: normalizedCountryCode,
        overallScore,
+        baselineScore,
+        stressScore,
+        stressFactor,
        level: classifyResilienceLevel(overallScore),
        domains,
        trend: detectTrend(scoreSeries),
@@ -199,6 +215,9 @@ export async function ensureResilienceScoreCached(countryCode: string, reader?:
  ) ?? {
    countryCode: normalizedCountryCode,
    overallScore: 0,
+    baselineScore: 0,
+    stressScore: 0,
+    stressFactor: 0.5,
    level: 'unknown',
    domains: [],
    trend: 'stable',
--- a/src/components/ResilienceWidget.ts
+++ b/src/components/ResilienceWidget.ts
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { invokeTauri } from '@/services/tauri-bridge';
 import { h, replaceChildren } from '@/utils/dom-utils';
 import {
  RESILIENCE_VISUAL_LEVEL_COLORS,
+  formatBaselineStress,
  formatResilienceChange30d,
  formatResilienceConfidence,
  getResilienceDomainLabel,
@@ -19,6 +20,9 @@ import type { CountryEnergyProfileData } from './CountryBriefPanel';
 const LOCKED_PREVIEW: ResilienceScoreResponse = {
  countryCode: 'US',
  overallScore: 73,
+  baselineScore: 82,
+  stressScore: 58,
+  stressFactor: 0.21,
  level: 'high',
  domains: [
    { id: 'economic', score: 82, weight: 0.22, dimensions: [] },
@@ -262,6 +266,14 @@ export class ResilienceWidget {
          ),
        ),
      ),
+      ...(data.baselineScore != null && data.stressScore != null && data.stressFactor != null
+        ? [h(
+            'div',
+            { className: 'resilience-widget__baseline-stress' },
+            h('span', { className: 'resilience-widget__baseline-stress-text' },
+              formatBaselineStress(data.baselineScore, data.stressScore, data.stressFactor)),
+          )]
+        : []),
      h(
        'div',
        { className: 'resilience-widget__domains' },
--- a/src/components/resilience-widget-utils.ts
+++ b/src/components/resilience-widget-utils.ts
@@ -52,3 +52,10 @@ export function formatResilienceChange30d(change30d: number): string {
  const sign = change30d > 0 ? '+' : '';
  return `30d ${sign}${rounded}`;
 }
+
+export function formatBaselineStress(baseline: number, stress: number, stressFactor: number): string {
+  const b = Number.isFinite(baseline) ? Math.round(baseline) : 0;
+  const s = Number.isFinite(stress) ? Math.round(stress) : 0;
+  const impact = Number.isFinite(stressFactor) ? Math.round(stressFactor * 100) : 0;
+  return `Baseline: ${b} | Stress: ${s} | Impact: -${impact}%`;
+}
--- a/src/generated/client/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/service_client.ts
+++ b/src/generated/client/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/service_client.ts
@@ -15,6 +15,9 @@ export interface GetResilienceScoreResponse {
  change30d: number;
  lowConfidence: boolean;
  imputationShare: number;
+  baselineScore: number;
+  stressScore: number;
+  stressFactor: number;
 }

 export interface ResilienceDomain {
--- a/src/generated/server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/service_server.ts
+++ b/src/generated/server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/service_server.ts
@@ -15,6 +15,9 @@ export interface GetResilienceScoreResponse {
  change30d: number;
  lowConfidence: boolean;
  imputationShare: number;
+  baselineScore: number;
+  stressScore: number;
+  stressFactor: number;
 }

 export interface ResilienceDomain {
--- a/tests/resilience-handlers.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-handlers.test.mts
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ describe('resilience handlers', () => {
    delete process.env.VERCEL_ENV;

    const { fetchImpl, redis, sortedSets } = createRedisFetch(RESILIENCE_FIXTURES);
-    sortedSets.set('resilience:history:US', [
+    sortedSets.set('resilience:history:v2:US', [
      { member: '2026-04-01:20', score: 20260401 },
      { member: '2026-04-02:30', score: 20260402 },
    ]);
@@ -47,17 +47,23 @@ describe('resilience handlers', () => {
    assert.ok(response.change30d > 0);
    assert.equal(typeof response.lowConfidence, 'boolean');
    assert.ok(response.imputationShare >= 0 && response.imputationShare <= 1, `imputationShare out of bounds: ${response.imputationShare}`);
+    assert.equal(typeof response.baselineScore, 'number', 'baselineScore should be present');
+    assert.equal(typeof response.stressScore, 'number', 'stressScore should be present');
+    assert.equal(typeof response.stressFactor, 'number', 'stressFactor should be present');
+    assert.ok(response.baselineScore >= 0 && response.baselineScore <= 100, `baselineScore out of bounds: ${response.baselineScore}`);
+    assert.ok(response.stressScore >= 0 && response.stressScore <= 100, `stressScore out of bounds: ${response.stressScore}`);
+    assert.ok(response.stressFactor >= 0 && response.stressFactor <= 0.5, `stressFactor out of bounds: ${response.stressFactor}`);

-    const cachedScore = redis.get('resilience:score:v4:US');
+    const cachedScore = redis.get('resilience:score:v5:US');
    assert.ok(cachedScore, 'expected score cache to be written');
    assert.equal(JSON.parse(cachedScore || '{}').countryCode, 'US');

-    const history = sortedSets.get('resilience:history:US') ?? [];
+    const history = sortedSets.get('resilience:history:v2:US') ?? [];
    assert.ok(history.some((entry) => entry.member.startsWith(today + ':')), 'expected today history member to be written');

    await getResilienceScore({ request: new Request('https://example.com') } as never, {
      countryCode: 'US',
    });
-    assert.equal((sortedSets.get('resilience:history:US') ?? []).length, history.length, 'cache hit must not append history');
+    assert.equal((sortedSets.get('resilience:history:v2:US') ?? []).length, history.length, 'cache hit must not append history');
  });
 });
--- a/tests/resilience-ranking.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-ranking.test.mts
@@ -46,12 +46,12 @@ describe('resilience ranking contracts', () => {
      ],
      greyedOut: [],
    };
-    redis.set('resilience:ranking:v4', JSON.stringify(cached));
+    redis.set('resilience:ranking:v5', JSON.stringify(cached));

    const response = await getResilienceRanking({ request: new Request('https://example.com') } as never, {});

    assert.deepEqual(response, cached);
-    assert.equal(redis.has('resilience:score:v4:YE'), false, 'cache hit must not trigger score warmup');
+    assert.equal(redis.has('resilience:score:v5:YE'), false, 'cache hit must not trigger score warmup');
  });

  it('returns all-greyed-out cached payload without rewarming (items=[], greyedOut non-empty)', async () => {
@@ -65,18 +65,18 @@ describe('resilience ranking contracts', () => {
        { countryCode: 'ER', overallScore: 10, level: 'critical', lowConfidence: true, overallCoverage: 0.12 },
      ],
    };
-    redis.set('resilience:ranking:v4', JSON.stringify(cached));
+    redis.set('resilience:ranking:v5', JSON.stringify(cached));

    const response = await getResilienceRanking({ request: new Request('https://example.com') } as never, {});

    assert.deepEqual(response, cached);
-    assert.equal(redis.has('resilience:score:v4:SS'), false, 'all-greyed-out cache hit must not trigger score warmup');
+    assert.equal(redis.has('resilience:score:v5:SS'), false, 'all-greyed-out cache hit must not trigger score warmup');
  });

  it('warms missing scores synchronously and returns complete ranking on first call', async () => {
    const { redis } = installRedis(RESILIENCE_FIXTURES);
    const domainWithCoverage = [{ name: 'political', dimensions: [{ name: 'd1', coverage: 0.9 }] }];
-    redis.set('resilience:score:v4:NO', JSON.stringify({
+    redis.set('resilience:score:v5:NO', JSON.stringify({
      countryCode: 'NO',
      overallScore: 82,
      level: 'high',
@@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ describe('resilience ranking contracts', () => {
      lowConfidence: false,
      imputationShare: 0.05,
    }));
-    redis.set('resilience:score:v4:US', JSON.stringify({
+    redis.set('resilience:score:v5:US', JSON.stringify({
      countryCode: 'US',
      overallScore: 61,
      level: 'medium',
@@ -101,8 +101,8 @@ describe('resilience ranking contracts', () => {

    const totalItems = response.items.length + (response.greyedOut?.length ?? 0);
    assert.equal(totalItems, 3, `expected 3 total items across ranked + greyedOut, got ${totalItems}`);
-    assert.ok(redis.has('resilience:score:v4:YE'), 'missing country should be warmed during first call');
+    assert.ok(redis.has('resilience:score:v5:YE'), 'missing country should be warmed during first call');
    assert.ok(response.items.every((item) => item.overallScore >= 0), 'ranked items should all have computed scores');
-    assert.ok(redis.has('resilience:ranking:v4'), 'fully scored ranking should be cached');
+    assert.ok(redis.has('resilience:ranking:v5'), 'fully scored ranking should be cached');
  });
 });
--- a/tests/resilience-release-gate.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-release-gate.test.mts
@@ -85,7 +85,8 @@ describe('resilience release gate', () => {
      ),
    );
    for (const response of highAnchors) {
-      assert.ok(response.overallScore >= 75, `${response.countryCode} should remain in the high-resilience band`);
+      assert.ok(response.overallScore >= 60, `${response.countryCode} should remain in the high-resilience band (baseline*stress formula)`);
+      assert.ok(response.baselineScore > response.stressScore * 0.8, `${response.countryCode} baseline should be >= 80% of stress for resilient countries`);
    }

    const lowAnchors = await Promise.all(
@@ -94,7 +95,8 @@ describe('resilience release gate', () => {
      ),
    );
    for (const response of lowAnchors) {
-      assert.ok(response.overallScore <= 30, `${response.countryCode} should remain in the low-resilience band`);
+      assert.ok(response.overallScore <= 20, `${response.countryCode} should remain in the low-resilience band (baseline*stress formula)`);
+      assert.ok(response.stressScore < 40, `${response.countryCode} (fragile) should have stressScore < 40`);
    }
  });

--- a/tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts
@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import {
  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_DOMAINS,
  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER,
  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_SCORERS,
+  RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES,
  RESILIENCE_DOMAIN_ORDER,
  getResilienceDomainWeight,
  scoreAllDimensions,
@@ -69,10 +70,6 @@ describe('resilience scorer contracts', () => {
      return [domainId, average];
    }));

-    const overallScore = Number(RESILIENCE_DOMAIN_ORDER.reduce((sum, domainId) => {
-      return sum + domainAverages[domainId] * getResilienceDomainWeight(domainId);
-    }, 0).toFixed(2));
-
    assert.deepEqual(domainAverages, {
      economic: 66.33,
      infrastructure: 79,
@@ -80,7 +77,114 @@ describe('resilience scorer contracts', () => {
      'social-governance': 61.75,
      'health-food': 60.5,
    });
-    assert.equal(overallScore, 68.72);
+
+    function round(v: number, d = 2) { return Number(v.toFixed(d)); }
+    function coverageWeightedMean(dims: { score: number; coverage: number }[]) {
+      const totalCov = dims.reduce((s, d) => s + d.coverage, 0);
+      if (!totalCov) return 0;
+      return dims.reduce((s, d) => s + d.score * d.coverage, 0) / totalCov;
+    }
+
+    const dimensions = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER.map((id) => ({
+      id,
+      score: round(scoreMap[id].score),
+      coverage: round(scoreMap[id].coverage),
+    }));
+    const baselineDims = dimensions.filter((d) => {
+      const t = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[d.id as keyof typeof RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES];
+      return t === 'baseline' || t === 'mixed';
+    });
+    const stressDims = dimensions.filter((d) => {
+      const t = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[d.id as keyof typeof RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES];
+      return t === 'stress' || t === 'mixed';
+    });
+
+    const baselineScore = round(coverageWeightedMean(baselineDims));
+    const stressScore = round(coverageWeightedMean(stressDims));
+    const stressFactor = round(Math.max(0, Math.min(1 - stressScore / 100, 0.5)), 4);
+    const overallScore = round(baselineScore * (1 - stressFactor));
+
+    assert.equal(baselineScore, 67.85);
+    assert.equal(stressScore, 67.85);
+    assert.equal(stressFactor, 0.3215);
+    assert.equal(overallScore, 46.04);
+  });
+
+  it('baselineScore is computed from baseline + mixed dimensions only', async () => {
+    installRedis(RESILIENCE_FIXTURES);
+    const scoreMap = await scoreAllDimensions('US');
+
+    const baselineDimIds = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER.filter((id) => {
+      const t = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[id];
+      return t === 'baseline' || t === 'mixed';
+    });
+    const stressOnlyDimIds = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER.filter((id) => RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[id] === 'stress');
+
+    assert.ok(baselineDimIds.length > 0, 'should have baseline dims');
+    for (const id of stressOnlyDimIds) {
+      assert.ok(!baselineDimIds.includes(id), `stress-only dimension ${id} should not appear in baseline set`);
+    }
+    assert.ok(baselineDimIds.includes('macroFiscal'), 'macroFiscal should be in baseline set');
+    assert.ok(baselineDimIds.includes('infrastructure'), 'infrastructure should be in baseline set');
+    assert.ok(baselineDimIds.includes('logisticsSupply'), 'mixed logisticsSupply should be in baseline set');
+  });
+
+  it('stressScore is computed from stress + mixed dimensions only', async () => {
+    installRedis(RESILIENCE_FIXTURES);
+    const scoreMap = await scoreAllDimensions('US');
+
+    const stressDimIds = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER.filter((id) => {
+      const t = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[id];
+      return t === 'stress' || t === 'mixed';
+    });
+    const baselineOnlyDimIds = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER.filter((id) => RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[id] === 'baseline');
+
+    assert.ok(stressDimIds.length > 0, 'should have stress dims');
+    for (const id of baselineOnlyDimIds) {
+      assert.ok(!stressDimIds.includes(id), `baseline-only dimension ${id} should not appear in stress set`);
+    }
+    assert.ok(stressDimIds.includes('currencyExternal'), 'currencyExternal should be in stress set');
+    assert.ok(stressDimIds.includes('borderSecurity'), 'borderSecurity should be in stress set');
+    assert.ok(stressDimIds.includes('energy'), 'mixed energy should be in stress set');
+  });
+
+  it('overallScore = baselineScore * (1 - stressFactor)', async () => {
+    installRedis(RESILIENCE_FIXTURES);
+    const scoreMap = await scoreAllDimensions('US');
+    function round(v: number, d = 2) { return Number(v.toFixed(d)); }
+    function coverageWeightedMean(dims: { score: number; coverage: number }[]) {
+      const totalCov = dims.reduce((s, d) => s + d.coverage, 0);
+      if (!totalCov) return 0;
+      return dims.reduce((s, d) => s + d.score * d.coverage, 0) / totalCov;
+    }
+    const dimensions = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER.map((id) => ({
+      id, score: round(scoreMap[id].score), coverage: round(scoreMap[id].coverage),
+    }));
+    const baselineDims = dimensions.filter((d) => {
+      const t = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[d.id as keyof typeof RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES];
+      return t === 'baseline' || t === 'mixed';
+    });
+    const stressDims = dimensions.filter((d) => {
+      const t = RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES[d.id as keyof typeof RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_TYPES];
+      return t === 'stress' || t === 'mixed';
+    });
+    const bs = round(coverageWeightedMean(baselineDims));
+    const ss = round(coverageWeightedMean(stressDims));
+    const sf = round(Math.max(0, Math.min(1 - ss / 100, 0.5)), 4);
+    const expected = round(bs * (1 - sf));
+    assert.ok(expected > 0, 'overall should be positive');
+    assert.equal(expected, 46.04, 'overallScore should match the baseline * (1 - stressFactor) formula');
+  });
+
+  it('stressFactor is clamped to [0, 0.5]', () => {
+    function clampStressFactor(stressScore: number) {
+      return Math.max(0, Math.min(1 - stressScore / 100, 0.5));
+    }
+    assert.equal(clampStressFactor(100), 0, 'perfect stress score = zero factor');
+    assert.equal(clampStressFactor(0), 0.5, 'zero stress score = max factor 0.5');
+    assert.equal(clampStressFactor(50), 0.5, 'stress 50 = clamped to 0.5');
+    assert.ok(clampStressFactor(70) >= 0 && clampStressFactor(70) <= 0.5, 'stress 70 within bounds');
+    assert.ok(clampStressFactor(110) >= 0, 'stress above 100 still clamped');
  });
 });

--- a/tests/resilience-scores-seed.test.mjs
+++ b/tests/resilience-scores-seed.test.mjs
@@ -180,11 +180,11 @@ describe('buildRankingPayload', () => {

 describe('exported constants', () => {
  it('RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY matches server-side key', () => {
-    assert.equal(RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY, 'resilience:ranking:v4');
+    assert.equal(RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY, 'resilience:ranking:v5');
  });

  it('RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX matches server-side prefix', () => {
-    assert.equal(RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX, 'resilience:score:v4:');
+    assert.equal(RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX, 'resilience:score:v5:');
  });

  it('RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_TTL_SECONDS is 6 hours', () => {
--- a/tests/resilience-widget.test.mts
+++ b/tests/resilience-widget.test.mts
@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
 import test from 'node:test';

 import {
+  formatBaselineStress,
  formatResilienceChange30d,
  formatResilienceConfidence,
  getResilienceDomainLabel,
@@ -13,6 +14,9 @@ import type { ResilienceScoreResponse } from '../src/services/resilience';
 const baseResponse: ResilienceScoreResponse = {
  countryCode: 'US',
  overallScore: 73,
+  baselineScore: 82,
+  stressScore: 58,
+  stressFactor: 0.21,
  level: 'high',
  domains: [
    { id: 'economic', score: 80, weight: 0.22, dimensions: [
@@ -63,3 +67,10 @@ test('formatResilienceChange30d preserves explicit sign formatting', () => {
  assert.equal(formatResilienceChange30d(-1.26), '30d -1.3');
  assert.equal(formatResilienceChange30d(0), '30d 0.0');
 });
+
+test('formatBaselineStress renders the expected breakdown string', () => {
+  assert.equal(formatBaselineStress(72.1, 58.3, 0.21), 'Baseline: 72 | Stress: 58 | Impact: -21%');
+  assert.equal(formatBaselineStress(80, 100, 0), 'Baseline: 80 | Stress: 100 | Impact: -0%');
+  assert.equal(formatBaselineStress(50, 0, 0.5), 'Baseline: 50 | Stress: 0 | Impact: -50%');
+  assert.equal(formatBaselineStress(NaN, 50, 0.1), 'Baseline: 0 | Stress: 50 | Impact: -10%');
+});