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32 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Elie Habib
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8655bd81bc |
feat(energy-atlas): GEM pipeline data import — gas 297, oil 334 (#3406)
* feat(energy-atlas): GEM pipeline data import — gas 75→297, oil 75→334 (parity-push closure) Closes the ~3.6× pipeline-scale gap that PR #3397's import infrastructure was built for. Per docs/methodology/pipelines.mdx operator runbook. Source releases (CC-BY 4.0, attribution preserved in registry envelope): - GEM-GGIT-Gas-Pipelines-2025-11.xlsx SHA256: f56d8b14400e558f06e53a4205034d3d506fc38c5ae6bf58000252f87b1845e6 URL: https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/GEM-GGIT-Gas-Pipelines-2025-11.xlsx - GEM-GOIT-Oil-NGL-Pipelines-2025-03.xlsx SHA256: d1648d28aed99cfd2264047f1e944ddfccf50ce9feeac7de5db233c601dc3bb2 URL: https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/GEM-GOIT-Oil-NGL-Pipelines-2025-03.xlsx Pre-conversion: GeoJSON (geometry endpoints) + XLSX (column properties) → canonical operator-shape JSON via /tmp/gem-import/convert.py. Filter knobs: - status ∈ {operating, construction} - length ≥ 750 km (gas) / 400 km (oil) — asymmetric per-fuel trunk-class - capacity unit conversions: bcm/y native; MMcf/d, MMSCMD, mtpa, m3/day, bpd, Mb/d, kbd → bcm/y (gas) or bbl/d (oil) at canonical conversion factors. - Country names → ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 via pycountry + alias table. Merge results (via scripts/import-gem-pipelines.mjs --merge): gas: +222 added, 15 duplicates skipped (haversine ≤ 5km AND token Jaccard ≥ 0.6) oil: +259 added, 16 duplicates skipped Final: 297 gas / 334 oil. Hand-curated 75+75 preserved with full evidence; GEM rows ship physicalStateSource='gem', classifierConfidence=0.4, operatorStatement=null, sanctionRefs=[]. Floor bump: scripts/_pipeline-registry.mjs MIN_PIPELINES_PER_REGISTRY 8 → 200. Live counts (297/334) leave ~100 rows of jitter headroom so a partial re-import or coverage-narrowing release fails loud rather than halving the registry silently. Tests: - tests/pipelines-registry.test.mts: bumped synthetic-registry Array.from({length:8}) → length:210 to clear new floor; added 'gem' to the evidence-source whitelist for non-flowing badges (parity with the derivePipelinePublicBadge audit done in PR #3397 U1). - tests/import-gem-pipelines.test.mjs: bumped registry-conformance loop 3 → 70 to clear new floor. - 51/51 pipeline tests pass; tsc --noEmit clean. vs peer reference site (281 gas + 265 oil): we now match (gas 297) and exceed (oil 334). Functional + visual + data parity for the energy variant is closed; remaining gaps are editorial-cadence (weekly briefing) which is intentionally out of scope per the parity-push plan. * docs(energy-atlas): land GEM converter + expand methodology runbook for quarterly refresh PR #3406 imported the data but didn't land the conversion script that produced it. This commit lands the converter at scripts/_gem-geojson-to-canonical.py so future operators can reproduce the import deterministically, and rewrites the docs/methodology/pipelines.mdx runbook to match what actually works: - Use GeoJSON (not XLSX) — the XLSX has properties but no lat/lon columns; only the GIS .zip's GeoJSON has both. The original runbook said to download XLSX which would fail at the lat/lon validation step. - Cadence: quarterly refresh, with concrete signals (peer-site comparison, 90-day calendar reminder). - Source datasets: explicit GGIT (gas) + GOIT (oil/NGL) tracker names so future operators don't re-request the wrong dataset (the Extraction Tracker = wells/fields, NOT pipelines — ours requires the Infrastructure Trackers). - Last-known-good URLs documented + URL pattern explained as fallback when GEM rotates per release. - Filter knob defaults documented inline (gas ≥ 750km, oil ≥ 400km, status ∈ {operating, construction}, capacity unit conversion table). - Failure-mode table mapping common errors to fixes. Converter takes paths via env vars (GEM_GAS_GEOJSON, GEM_OIL_GEOJSON, GEM_DOWNLOADED_AT, GEM_SOURCE_VERSION) instead of hardcoded paths so it works for any release without code edits. * fix(energy-atlas): close PR #3406 review findings — dedup + zero-length + test Three Greptile findings on PR #3406: P1 — Dedup miss (Dampier-Bunbury): Same physical pipeline existed in both registries — curated `dampier-bunbury` and GEM-imported `dampier-to-bunbury-natural-gas-pipeline-au` — because GEM digitized only the southern 60% of the line. The shared Bunbury terminus matched at 13.7 km but the average-endpoint distance was 287 km, just over the 5 km gate. Fix: scripts/_pipeline-dedup.mjs adds a name-set-identity short-circuit — if Jaccard == 1.0 (after stopword removal) AND any of the 4 endpoint pairings is ≤ 25 km, treat as duplicate. The 25 km anchor preserves the existing "name collision in different ocean → still added" contract. Added regression test: identical Dampier-Bunbury inputs → 0 added, 1 skipped, matched against `dampier-bunbury`. P1 — Zero-length geometry (9 rows: Trans-Alaska, Enbridge Line 3, Ichthys, etc.): GEM source GeoJSON occasionally has a Point geometry or single-coord LineString, producing pipelines where startPoint == endPoint. They render as map-point artifacts and skew aggregate-length stats. Fix (defense in depth): - scripts/_gem-geojson-to-canonical.py drops at conversion time (`zero_length` reason in drop log). - scripts/_pipeline-registry.mjs validateRegistry rejects defensively so even a hand-curated row with degenerate geometry fails loud. P2 — Test repetition coupled to fixture row count: Hardcoded `for (let i = 0; i < 70; i++)` × 3 fixture rows = 210 silently breaks if fixture is trimmed below 3. Fix: `Math.ceil(REGISTRY_FLOOR / fixture.length) + 5` derives reps from the floor and current fixture length. Re-run --merge with all fixes applied: gas: 75 → 293 (+218 added, 17 deduped — was 222/15 before; +2 catches via name-set-identity short-circuit; -2 zero-length never imported) oil: 75 → 325 (+250 added, 18 deduped — was 259/16; +2 catches; -7 zero-length) Tests: 74/74 pipeline tests pass; tsc --noEmit clean. |
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Elie Habib
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d9a1f6a0f8 |
feat(energy-atlas): GEM pipeline import infrastructure (parity PR 1, plan U1-U4) (#3397)
* feat(energy-atlas): GEM pipeline import infrastructure (PR 1, plan U1-U4)
Lands the parser, dedup helper, validator extensions, and operator runbook
for the Global Energy Monitor (CC-BY 4.0) pipeline-data refresh — closing
~3.6× of the Energy Atlas pipeline-scale gap once the operator runs the
import.
Per docs/plans/2026-04-25-003-feat-energy-parity-pushup-plan.md PR 1.
U1 — Validator + schema extensions:
- Add `'gem'` to VALID_SOURCES in scripts/_pipeline-registry.mjs and to the
evidence-bearing-source whitelist in derivePipelinePublicBadge so GEM-
sourced offline rows derive a `disputed` badge via the external-signal
rule (parity with `press`/`satellite`/`ais-relay`).
- Export VALID_SOURCES so tests assert against the same source-of-truth
the validator uses (matches the VALID_OIL_PRODUCT_CLASSES pattern from
PR #3383).
- Floor bump (MIN_PIPELINES_PER_REGISTRY 8→200) intentionally DEFERRED
to the follow-up data PR — bumping it now would gate the existing 75+75
hand-curated rows below the new floor and break seeder publishes
before the GEM data lands.
U2 — GEM parser (test-first):
- scripts/import-gem-pipelines.mjs reads a local JSON file (operator pre-
converts GEM Excel externally — no `xlsx` dependency added). Schema-
drift sentinel throws on missing columns. Status mapping covers
Operating/Construction/Cancelled/Mothballed/Idle/Shut-in. ProductClass
mapping covers Crude Oil / Refined Products / mixed-flow notes.
Capacity-unit conversion handles bcm/y, bbl/d, Mbd, kbd.
- 22 tests in tests/import-gem-pipelines.test.mjs cover schema sentinel,
fuel split, status mapping, productClass mapping, capacity conversion,
minimum-viable-evidence shape, registry-shape conformance, and bad-
coordinate rejection.
U3 — Deduplication (pure deterministic):
- scripts/_pipeline-dedup.mjs: dedupePipelines(existing, candidates) →
{ toAdd, skippedDuplicates }. Match rule: haversine ≤5km AND name
Jaccard ≥0.6 (BOTH required). Reverse-direction-pair-aware.
- 19 tests cover internal helpers, match logic, id collision, determinism,
and empty inputs.
U4 — Operator runbook (data import deferred):
- docs/methodology/pipelines.mdx: 7-step runbook for the operator to
download GEM, pre-convert Excel→JSON, dry-run with --print-candidates,
merge with --merge, bump the registry floor, and commit with
provenance metadata.
- The actual data import is intentionally OUT OF SCOPE for this agent-
authored PR because GEM downloads are registration-gated. A follow-up
PR will commit the imported scripts/data/pipelines-{gas,oil}.json +
bump MIN_PIPELINES_PER_REGISTRY → 200 + record the GEM release SHA256.
Tests: typecheck clean; 67 tests pass across the three test files.
Codex-approved through 8 review rounds against origin/main @
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Elie Habib
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abdcdb581f |
feat(resilience): SWF manifest expansion + KIA split + new schema fields (#3391)
* feat(resilience): SWF manifest expansion + KIA split + new schema fields Phase 1 of plan 2026-04-25-001 (Codex-approved round 5). Manifest-only data correction; no construct change, no cache prefix bump. Schema additions (loader-validated, misplacement-rejected): - top-level: aum_usd, aum_year, aum_verified (primary-source AUM) - under classification: aum_pct_of_audited (fraction multiplier), excluded_overlaps_with_reserves (boolean; documentation-only) Manifest expansion (13 → 21 funds, 6 → 13 countries): - UAE: +ICD ($320B verified), +ADQ ($199B verified), +EIA (unverified — loaded for documentation, excluded from scoring per data-integrity rule) - KW: kia split into kia-grf (5%, access=0.9) + kia-fgf (95%, access=0.20). Corrects ~18× over-statement of crisis-deployable Kuwait sovereign wealth (audit found combined-AUM × 0.7 access applied $750B as "deployable" against ~$15B actual GRF stabilization capacity). - CN: +CIC ($1.35T), +NSSF ($400B, statutorily-gated 0.20 tier), +SAFE-IC ($417B, excluded — overlaps SAFE FX reserves) - HK: +HKMA-EF ($498B, excluded — overlaps HKMA reserves) - KR: +KIC ($182B, IFSWF full member) - AU: +Future Fund ($192B, pension-locked) - OM: +OIA ($50B, IFSWF member) - BH: +Mumtalakat ($19B) - TL: +Petroleum Fund ($22B, GPFG-style high-transparency) Re-audits (Phase 1E): - ADIA access 0.3 → 0.4 (rubric flagged; ruler-discretionary deployment empirically demonstrated) - Mubadala access 0.4 → 0.5 (rubric flagged); transparency 0.6 → 0.7 (LM=10 + IFSWF full member alignment) Rubric (docs/methodology/swf-classification-rubric.md): - New "Statutorily-gated long-horizon" 0.20 access tier added between 0.1 (sanctions/frozen) and 0.3 (intergenerational/ruler-discretionary). Anchored by KIA-FGF (Decree 106 of 1976; Council-of-Ministers + Emir decree gate; crossed once in extremis during COVID). Seeder: - Two new pure helpers: shouldSkipFundForBuffer (excluded/unverified decision) and applyAumPctOfAudited (sleeve fraction multiplier) - Manifest-AUM bypass: if aum_verified=true AND aum_usd present, use that value directly (skip Wikipedia) - Skip funds with excluded_overlaps_with_reserves=true (no double-counting against reserveAdequacy / liquidReserveAdequacy) - Skip funds with aum_verified=false (load for documentation only) Tests (+25 net): - 15 schema-extension tests (misplacement rejection, value-range gates, rationale-pairing coherence, backward-compat with pre-PR entries) - 10 helper tests (shouldSkipFundForBuffer + applyAumPctOfAudited predicates and arithmetic; KIA-GRF + KIA-FGF sum equals combined AUM) - Existing manifest test updated for the kia → kia-grf+kia-fgf split Full suite: 6,940 tests pass (+50 net), typecheck clean, no new lint. Predicted ranking deltas (informational, NOT acceptance criteria per plan §"Hard non-goals"): - AE sovFiscBuf likely 39 → 47-49 (Phase 1A + 1E) - KW sovFiscBuf likely 98 → 53-57 (Phase 1B) - CN, HK (excluded), KR, AU acquire newly-defined sovFiscBuf scores - GCC ordering shifts toward QA > KW > AE; AE-KW gap likely 6 → ~3-4 Real outcome will be measured post-deploy via cohort audit per plan §Phase 4. * fix(resilience): completeness denominator excludes documentation-only funds PR-3391 review (P1 catch): the per-country `expectedFunds` denominator counted ALL manifest entries (`funds.length`) including those skipped from buffer scoring by design — `excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: true` (SAFE-IC, HKMA-EF) and `aum_verified: false` (EIA). Result: countries with mixed scorable + non-scorable rosters showed `completeness < 1.0` even when every scorable fund matched. UAE (4 scorable + EIA) would show 0.8; CN (CIC + NSSF + SAFE-IC excluded) would show 0.67. The downstream scorer then derated those countries' coverage based on a fake-partial signal. Three call sites all carried the same bug: - per-country `expectedFunds` in fetchSovereignWealth main loop - `expectedFundsTotal` + `expectedCountries` in buildCoverageSummary - `countManifestFundsForCountry` (missing-country path) All three now filter via `shouldSkipFundForBuffer` to count only scorable manifest entries. Documentation-only funds neither expected nor matched — they don't appear in the ratio at all. Tests added (+4): - AE complete with all 4 scorable matched (EIA documented but excluded) - CN complete with CIC + NSSF matched (SAFE-IC documented but excluded) - Missing-country path returns scorable count not raw manifest count - Country with ONLY documentation-only entries excluded from expectedCountries Full suite: 6,944 tests pass (+4 net), typecheck clean. * fix(resilience): address Greptile P2s on PR #3391 manifest Three review findings, all in the manifest YAML: 1. **KIA-GRF access 0.9 → 0.7** (rubric alignment): GRF deployment requires active Council-of-Ministers authorization (2020 COVID precedent demonstrates this), not rule-triggered automatic deployment. The rubric's 0.9 tier ("Pure automatic stabilization") reserved for funds where political authorization is post-hoc / symbolic (Chile ESSF candidate). KIA-GRF correctly fits 0.7 ("Explicit stabilization with rule") — the same tier the pre-split combined-KIA was assigned. Updated rationale clarifies the tier choice. Rubric's 0.7 precedent column already lists "KIA General Reserve Fund" — now consistent with the manifest. 2. **Duplicate `# ── Australia ──` header before Oman** (copy-paste artifact): removed the orphaned header at the Oman section; added proper `# ── Australia ──` header above the Future Fund entry where it actually belongs (after Timor-Leste). 3. **NSSF `aum_pct_of_audited: 1.0` removed** (no-op): a multiplier of 1.0 is identity. The schema field is OPTIONAL and only meant for fund-of-funds split entries (e.g. KIA-GRF/FGF). Setting it to 1.0 forced the loader to require an `aum_pct_of_audited` rationale paragraph with no computational benefit. Both the field and the paragraph are now removed; NSSF remains a single- sleeve entry that scores its full audited AUM. Full suite: 6,944 tests pass, typecheck clean. |
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Elie Habib
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1dc807e70f |
docs(resilience): PR 4a — SWF classification rubric (tiers + precedents, no manifest changes) (#3376)
* docs(resilience): PR 4a — SWF classification rubric (tiers + precedents, no manifest changes)
PR 4a of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. First half of the plan's PR 4
(full-manifest re-rate) split into:
- PR 4a (this): pure documentation — central rubric defining tiers
+ concrete precedents per axis. No manifest changes.
- PR 4b (deferred): apply the rubric to revise specific coefficients
in `scripts/shared/swf-classification-manifest.yaml`. Behaviour-
changing; belongs in a separate PR with cohort snapshots and
methodology review.
This split addresses the plan's concern that PR 4 "may not be outcome-
predetermined" by separating the evaluative framework from its
application. PR 4a makes every current manifest value evaluable against
a benchmark; PR 4b applies the benchmark.
Shipped
- `docs/methodology/swf-classification-rubric.md` — new doc.
Sections:
1. Introduction + scope (rubric vs manifest boundary)
2. Access axis: 5 named tiers (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9) w/
concrete precedents per tier, plus edge cases for
fiscal-rule caps (Norway GPFG) and state holding
companies (Temasek)
3. Liquidity axis: 6 tiers (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0) w/
precedents + listed-vs-directly-owned real-estate edge case
4. Transparency axis: 6 tiers grounded in LM Transparency
Index + IFSWF membership + annual-report granularity, plus
edge cases for LM=10 w/o holdings-level disclosure and
sealed filings (KIA)
5. Current manifest × rubric alignment — 24 coefficients reviewed;
6 flagged as "arguably higher/lower under the rubric" with
directional-impact analysis marked INFORMATIONAL, not
motivation for revision
6. How-to-use playbook for manifest-edit PRs (add/revise/rubric-
revise workflows)
Findings (informational only — no PR changes)
Six ratings flagged as potentially under-/over-stated against the
rubric. Per the plan's anti-pattern note (rank-targeted acceptance
criteria), the flags are INFORMATIONAL: a future manifest-edit PR
should revise only when the rubric + cited evidence support the
change, not to hit a target ranking.
Flagged (with directional impact if revised upward):
- Mubadala access 0.4 → arguably 0.5; transparency 0.6 → 0.7
(haircut 0.12 → 0.175, +46% access × transparency product)
- PIF access 0.4 → arguably 0.5; liquidity 0.4 → arguably 0.3
(net small effect — opposite directions partially cancel)
- KIA transparency 0.4 → arguably 0.5 (haircut +25%)
- QIA access 0.4 → arguably 0.5; transparency 0.4 → arguably 0.5
(haircut +56%)
- GIC access 0.6 → arguably 0.7 (haircut +17%)
Not flagged: GPFG, ADIA, Temasek (all 9 coefficients align with
their rubric tiers).
Verified
- `npm run test:data` — 6694 pass / 0 fail (unchanged — pure docs PR)
- `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green
- `npm run lint:md` — clean
Not in this PR
- Manifest coefficient changes (PR 4b)
- Cohort-sanity snapshot before/after (PR 4b)
- Live-data audit of IFSWF engagement + LM index current values
(requires web fetch — not in scope for a doc PR)
* fix(resilience): PR 4a review — resolve GIC/ADIA rubric contradictions + flag-count
Addresses P1 + 2 P2 Greptile findings on #3376 (draft).
1. **P1 — GIC tier contradiction.** GIC was listed as a canonical 0.7
("Explicit stabilization with rule") precedent AND rated 0.6 in
the alignment table with an "arguably 0.7" note. That inconsistency
makes the rubric unusable as-is for PR 4b review. Removed GIC from
the 0.7 precedent list and explicitly marked it as a 0.7 *candidate*
(pending PR 4b evaluation), not a 0.7 *precedent*. KIA General
Reserve Fund stays as the canonical 0.7 example; Norway GPFG
remains the borderline case for fiscal-rule caps.
2. **P2 — ADIA liquidity midpoint inconsistency.** Methodology text
said the rubric uses "midpoint" for ranged disclosures and cited
ADIA 55-70% → 0.7 tier. But midpoint(55-70) = 62.5%, which sits
in the 0.5 tier band (50-65%). Fixed the methodology to state the
rubric uses the **upper-bound** of a disclosed range (fund's own
statement of maximum public-market allocation), which keeps ADIA
at 0.7 tier (70% upper bound fits 65-85% band). Added forward-
compatibility note: if future ADIA disclosures tighten the range
so the upper bound drops below 65%, the rubric directs the rating
to 0.5.
3. **P2 — Flag-count header.** "(6 of 24 coefficients)" was wrong;
the enumeration below lists 8 coefficients across 5 funds.
Corrected to "8 coefficients across 5 funds" with the fund-by-fund
count inline so the header math is self-verifying.
Verified
- `npm run lint:md` — clean
- `npm run typecheck` — green (pure docs PR, no behaviour change)
This PR remains in draft pending #3380 (PR 3A — net-imports denominator)
merge per the plan's PR 4 → after PR 3A sequencing.
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Elie Habib
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b4198a52c3 |
docs(resilience): PR 5.1 — sanctions construct audit (designated-party domicile question) (#3375)
* docs(resilience): PR 5.1 — sanctions construct audit (designated-party domicile question) PR 5.1 of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. Stacked on PR 5.3 (#3374) so the known-limitations.md section append is additive. Read-only static audit of scoreTradeSanctions + the sanctions:country-counts:v1 seed — framed around the Codex-reformulated construct question: should designated-party domicile count penalize resilience? Findings 1. The count is "OFAC-designated-party domicile locations," NOT "sanctions against this country." Seeder (`scripts/seed-sanctions- pressure.mjs:85-93`) parses OFAC Advanced XML SDN + Consolidated, extracts each designated party's Locations, and increments `map[countryCode]` by 1 for every location country on that party. 2. The count conflates three semantically distinct categories a resilience construct might treat differently: (a) Country-level sanction target (NK SDN listings) — correct penalty (b) Domiciled sanctioned entity (RU bank in Moscow, post-2022) — debatable, country hosts the actor (c) Transit / shell entity (UAE trading co listed under SDGT for Iran evasion; CY SPV for a Russian oligarch) — country is NOT the target, but takes the penalty 3. Observed GCC cohort impact: AE scores 54 vs KW/QA 82. The −28 gap is almost entirely driven by category (c) listings — AE is a financial hub where sanctioned parties incorporate shells. 4. Three options documented for the construct decision (NOT decided in this PR): - Option 1: Keep flat count (status quo, defensible via secondary- sanctions / FATF argument) - Option 2: Program-weighted count — weight DPRK/IRAN/SYRIA/etc. at 1.0, SDGT/SDNTK/CYBER/etc. at 0.3-0.5. Recommended; seeder already captures `programs` per entry — data is there, scorer just doesn't read it. - Option 3: Transit-hub exclusion list (AE, SG, HK, CY, VG, KY) — brittle + normative, not recommended 5. Recommendation documented: Option 2. Implementation deferred to a separate methodology-decision PR (outside auto-mode authority). Shipped - `docs/methodology/known-limitations.md` — new section extending the file: "tradeSanctions — designated-party domicile construct question." Covers what the count represents, the three categories with examples, observed GCC impact, three options w/ trade-offs, recommendation, follow-up audit list (entity-sample gated on API-key access), and file references. - `tests/resilience-sanctions-field-mapping.test.mts` (new) — 10 regression-guard tests pinning CURRENT behavior: 1-6. normalizeSanctionCount piecewise anchors: count=0→100, 1→90, 10→75, 50→50, 200→25, 500→≤1 7. Monotonicity: strictly decreasing across the ramp 8. Country absent from map defaults to count=0 → score 100 (intentional "no designated parties here" semantics) 9. Seed outage (raw=null) → null score slot, NOT imputed (protects against silent data-outage scoring) 10. Construct anchor: count=1 is exactly 10 points below count=0 (pins the "first listing drops 10" design choice) Verified - `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-sanctions-field-mapping.test.mts` — 10 pass / 0 fail - `npm run test:data` — 6721 pass / 0 fail - `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green - `npm run lint` / `lint:md` — clean * fix(resilience): PR 5.1 review — tighten count=500 assertion; clarify weightedBlend weights Addresses 2 P2 Greptile findings on #3375: 1. Tighten count=500 assertion. Was `<= 1` with a comment stating the exact value is 0. That loose bound silently tolerates roundScore / boundary drift that would be the very signal this regression guard exists to catch. Changed to strict equality `=== 0`. 2. Clarify the "zero weight" comment on the sanctions-only harness. The other slots DO contribute their declared weights (0.15 + 0.15 + 0.25 = 0.55) to weightedBlend's `totalWeight` denominator — only `availableWeight` (the score-computation denominator) drops to 0.45 because their score is null. The previous comment elided this distinction and could mislead a reader into thinking the null slots contributed nothing at all. Expanded to state exactly how `coverage` and `score` each behave. Verified - `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-sanctions-field-mapping.test.mts` — 10 pass / 0 fail (count=500 now pins the exact 0 floor) |
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Elie Habib
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a97ba83833 |
docs(resilience): PR 5.3 — foodWater scorer audit (construct-deterministic GCC identity) (#3374)
* docs(resilience): PR 5.3 — foodWater scorer audit (construct-deterministic GCC identity) PR 5.3 of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. Stacked on PR 5.2 (#3373) so the known-limitations.md section append is additive. Read-only static audit of scoreFoodWater. Findings 1. The observed GCC-all-score-53 is CONSTRUCT-DETERMINISTIC, not a regional-default leak. Pinned mathematically: - IPC/HDX doesn't publish active food-crisis data for food-secure states → scorer's fao-null branch imputes IMPUTE.ipcFood=88 (class='stable-absence', cov=0.7) at combined weight 0.6 - WB indicator ER.H2O.FWST.ZS (labelled 'water stress') for GCC is EXTREME (KW ~3200%, BH ~3400%, UAE ~2080%, QA ~770%) — all clamp to sub-score 0 under the scorer's lower-better 0..100 normaliser at weight 0.4 - Blended with peopleInCrisis=0 (fao block present with zero): (100 * 0.45 + 0 * 0.4) / (0.45 + 0.4) = 45 / 0.85 ≈ 53 Every GCC country has the same inputs → same outputs. That's construct math, not a regional lookup. 2. Indicator-keyword routing is code-correct. `'water stress'`, `'withdrawal'`, `'dependency'` route to lower-better; `'availability'`, `'renewable'`, `'access'` route to higher-better; unrecognized indicators fall through to a value-range heuristic with a WARN log. 3. No bug or methodology decision required. The 53-all-GCC output is a correct summary statement: "non-crisis food security + severe water-withdrawal stress." A future construct decision might split foodWater into separate food and water dims so one saturated sub-signal doesn't dominate the combined dim for desert economies — but that's a construct redesign, not a bug. Shipped - `docs/methodology/known-limitations.md` — extended with a new section documenting the foodWater audit findings, the exact blend math that yields ~53 for GCC, cohort-determinism vs regional-default, and a follow-up data-side spot-check list gated on API-key access. - `tests/resilience-foodwater-field-mapping.test.mts` — 8 new regression-guard tests: 1. indicator='water stress' routes to lower-better 2. GCC extreme-withdrawal anchor (value=2000 → blended score 53) 3. indicator='renewable water availability' routes to higher-better 4. fao=null with static record → imputes 88; imputationClass=null because observed AQUASTAT wins (weightedBlend T1.7 rule) 5. fully-imputed (fao=null + aquastat=null) surfaces imputationClass='stable-absence' 6. static-record absent entirely → coverage=0, NOT impute 7. Cohort determinism — identical inputs → identical scores 8. Different water-profile inputs → different scores (rules out regional-default hypothesis) Verified - `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-foodwater-field-mapping.test.mts` — 8 pass / 0 fail - `npm run test:data` — 6711 pass / 0 fail (PR 5.2's 9 + PR 5.3's 8 = 17 new stacked) - `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green - `npm run lint` / `lint:md` — clean * fix(resilience): PR 5.3 review — pin IMPUTE branch for GCC anchor; fix comment math Addresses 3 P2 Greptile findings on #3374 — all variations of the same root cause: the test fixture + doc described two different code paths that coincidentally both produce ~53 for GCC inputs. Changes 1. GCC anchor test now drives the IMPUTE branch (`fao: null`), matching what the static seeder emits for GCC in production. The else branch (`fao: { peopleInCrisis: 0 }`) happens to converge on ~52.94 by coincidence but is NOT the live code path for GCC. 2. Doc finding #4 updated to show the IMPUTE-branch math `(88×0.6 + 0×0.4) / 1.0 = 52.8 → 53` and explicitly notes the else-branch convergence as a coincidence — not the construct's intent. 3. Comment math off-by-one fix at line 107: (88×0.6 + 80×0.4) / (0.6+0.4) = 52.8 + 32.0 = 84.8 → 85 (was incorrectly stated as 85.6 → 86) Test assertion `>= 80 && <= 90` still accepts 85 so behaviour is unchanged; this was a comment-only error that would have misled anyone reproducing the math by hand. Verified - `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-foodwater-field-mapping.test.mts` — 8 pass / 0 fail (IMPUTE-branch anchor test produces 53 as expected) - `npm run lint:md` — clean Also rebased onto updated #3373 (which landed a backtick-escape fix). |
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|
Elie Habib
|
6807a9c7b9 |
docs(resilience): PR 5.2 — displacement field-mapping audit + known-limitations (#3373)
* docs(resilience): PR 5.2 — displacement field-mapping audit + known-limitations
PR 5.2 of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. Read-only static audit of
the UNHCR displacement field mapping consumed by scoreSocialCohesion,
scoreBorderSecurity, and scoreStateContinuity.
Findings
1. Field mapping is CODE-CORRECT. The plan's concern — that
`totalDisplaced` might inadvertently include labor migrants — is
negative at the source. The UNHCR Population API does not publish
labor migrant data at all; it covers only four categories
(refugees, asylum seekers, IDPs, stateless), all of which the
seeder sums correctly. Labor-migrant-dominated cohorts (GCC, SG)
legitimately register as "no UNHCR footprint" — that's UNHCR
semantics, not a bug.
2. NEW finding during audit — `scoreBorderSecurity` fallback at
_dimension-scorers.ts:1412 is effectively dead code. The
`hostTotal ?? totalDisplaced` fallback never fires in production
for two compounding reasons:
(a) `safeNum(null)` returns 0 (JS `Number(null) === 0`), so the
`??` short-circuits on 0 — the nullish-coalescing only falls
back on null/undefined.
(b) `scripts/seed-displacement-summary.mjs` ALWAYS writes
`hostTotal: 0` explicitly for origin-only countries (lines
141-144). There's no production shape where `hostTotal` is
undefined, so the `??` can never select the fallback path.
Observable consequence: origin-only high-outflow countries
(Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Afghanistan) score 100 on
borderSecurity's displacement sub-component (35% of the dim
blend). The outflow signal is effectively silenced.
3. NOT fixing this in this PR. A one-line change (`||` or an
explicit `> 0` check) would flip the borderSecurity score for
~6 high-outflow origin countries by a material amount — a
methodology change, not a pure bug-fix. Belongs in a construct-
decision PR with before/after cohort snapshots. Opening this as
a follow-up discussion instead of bundling into an audit-doc PR.
Shipped
- `docs/methodology/known-limitations.md` — new file. Sections:
"Displacement field-mapping" covering source semantics (what
UNHCR provides vs does not), the GCC labor-migrant-cohort
implication, the `??` short-circuit finding, and the decision
to not fix in this PR. Includes a follow-up audit list of 11
countries (high host-pressure + high origin-outflow + labor-
migrant cohorts) for a live-data spot-check against UNHCR
Refugee Data Finder — gated on API-key access.
- `tests/resilience-displacement-field-mapping.test.mts` —
9-test regression guard. Pins:
(1) `totalDisplaced` = sum of all four UNHCR categories;
(2) `hostTotal` = asylum-side sum (no IDPs/stateless);
(3) stateless population flows into totalDisplaced (guards
against a future seeder refactor that drops the term);
(4) labor-migrant-cohort (UNHCR-empty) entry scores 100 on
the displacement sub-component — the correct-per-UNHCR-
semantics outcome, intentionally preserved;
(5) CURRENT scoreBorderSecurity behaviour: hostTotal=0
short-circuits `??` (Syria-pattern scores 100);
(6) `??` fallback ONLY fires when hostTotal is undefined
(academic; seeder never emits this shape today);
(7) `safeNum(null)` returns 0 quirk pinned as a numeric-
coercion contract;
(8) absent-from-UNHCR country imputes `stable-absence`;
(9) scoreStateContinuity reads `totalDisplaced` origin-side.
Verified
- `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-displacement-field-mapping.test.mts` — 9 pass / 0 fail
- `npm run test:data` — 6703 pass / 0 fail
- `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green
- `npm run lint` / `lint:md` — no warnings on new files
* fix(resilience): PR 5.2 review — escape backticks in assertion message
Addresses Greptile P2 on #3373. The unescaped backticks around the
nullish-coalescing operator in a template literal caused JavaScript to
parse the string as 'prefix' ?? 'suffix' — truncating the assertion
message to the prefix alone on failure. Escaping the backticks preserves
the full diagnostic so a future regression shows the complete context.
Semantics unchanged; test still passes.
|
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|
Elie Habib
|
df392b0514 |
feat(resilience): PR 0 — cohort-sanity release-gate harness (#3369)
* feat(resilience): PR 0 — cohort-sanity release-gate harness Lands the audit infrastructure for the resilience cohort-ranking structural audit (plan 2026-04-24-002). Release gate, not merge gate: the audit tells release review what to look at before publishing a ranking; it does not block a PR. What's new - scripts/audit-resilience-cohorts.mjs — Markdown report generator. Fetches the live ranking + per-country scores (or reads a fixture in offline mode), emits per-cohort per-dimension tables, contribution decomposition, saturated / outlier / identical-score flags, and a top-N movers comparison vs a baseline snapshot. - tests/resilience-construct-invariants.test.mts — 12 formula-level anchor-value assertions with synthetic inputs. Covers HHI, external debt (Greenspan-Guidotti anchor), and sovereign fiscal buffer (saturating transform). Tests the MATH, not a country's rank. - tests/fixtures/resilience-audit-fixture.json — offline fixture that mirrors the 2026-04-24 GCC state (KW>QA>AE) so the audit tool can be smoke-tested without API-key access. - docs/methodology/cohort-sanity-release-gate.md — operational doc explaining when to run, how to read the report, and the explicit anti-pattern note on rank-targeted acceptance criteria. Verified - `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-construct-invariants.test.mts` — 12 pass (HHI, debt, SWF invariants all green against current scorer) - `npm run test:data` — 6706 pass / 0 fail - `FIXTURE=tests/fixtures/resilience-audit-fixture.json OUT=/tmp/audit.md node scripts/audit-resilience-cohorts.mjs` runs to completion and correctly flags: (a) coverage-outlier on AE.importConcentration (0.3 vs peers 1.0) (b) saturated-high on GCC.externalDebtCoverage (all 6 at 100) — the two top cohort-sanity findings from the plan. Not in this PR - The live-API baseline snapshot (docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-live-pre-cohort-audit-2026-04-24.json) is deferred to a manual release-prep step: run `WORLDMONITOR_API_KEY=wm_xxx API_BASE=https://api.worldmonitor.app node scripts/freeze-resilience-ranking.mjs` before the first methodology PR (PR 1 HHI period widening) so its movers table has something to compare against. - No scorer changes. No cache-prefix bumps. This PR is pure tooling. * fix(resilience): fail-closed on fetch failures + pillar-combine formula mode Addresses review P1 + P2 on PR #3369. P1 — fetch-failure silent-drop. Per-country score fetches that failed were logged to stderr, silently stored as null, and then filtered out of cohort tables via `codes.filter((cc) => scoreMap.get(cc))`. A transient 403/500 on the very country carrying the ranking anomaly could produce a Markdown report that looked valid — wrong failure mode for a release gate. Fix: - `fetchScoresConcurrent` now tracks failures in a dedicated Map and does NOT insert null placeholders; missing cohort members are computed against the requested cohort code set. - The report has a ⛔ blocker banner at top AND an always-rendered "Fetch failures / missing members" section (shown even when empty, so an operator learns to look). - `STRICT=1` writes the report, then exits code 3 on any fetch failure or missing cohort member, code 4 on formula-mode drift, code 0 otherwise. Automation can differentiate the two. P2 — pillar-combine formula mode invalidates contribution rows. `docs/methodology/cohort-sanity-release-gate.md:63` tells operators to run this audit before activating `RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED`, but the contribution decomposition is a domain-weighted roll-up that is ONLY valid when `overallScore = sum(domain.score * domain.weight)`. Once pillar combine is on, `overallScore = penalizedPillarScore(pillars)` (non-linear in dim scores); decomposition rows become materially misleading for exactly the release-gate scenario the doc prescribes. Fix: - Added `detectFormulaMode(scoreMap)` that takes countries with: (a) `sum(domain.weight)` within 0.05 of 1.0 (complete response), AND (b) every dim at `coverage ≥ 0.9` (stable share math) and compares `|Σ contributions - overallScore|` against `CONTRIB_TOLERANCE` (default 1.5). If > 50% of ≥ 3 eligible countries drift, pillar combine is flagged. - Report emits a ⛔ blocker banner at top, a "Formula mode" line in the header, and a "Formula-mode diagnostic" section with the first three offenders. Under `STRICT=1` exits code 4. - Methodology doc updated: new "Fail-closed semantics" section, "Formula mode" operator guide, ENV table entries for STRICT + CONTRIB_TOLERANCE. Verified: - `tests/audit-cohort-formula-detection.test.mts` (NEW) — 3 child-process smoke tests: missing-members banner + STRICT exit 3, all-clear exit 0, pillar-mode banner + STRICT exit 4. All pass. - `npx tsx --test tests/resilience-construct-invariants.test.mts tests/audit-cohort-formula-detection.test.mts` — 15 pass / 0 fail - `npm run test:data` — 6709 pass / 0 fail - `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green - `npm run lint` / `lint:md` — no warnings on new / changed files (refactor split buildReport complexity from 51 → under 50 by extracting `renderCohortSection` + `renderDimCell`) - Fixture smoke: AE.importConcentration coverage-outlier and GCC.externalDebtCoverage saturated-high flags still fire correctly. * fix(resilience): PR 0 review — fixture-mode source label, try/catch country-names, ASCII minus Addresses 3 P2 Greptile findings on #3369: 1. **Misleading Source: line in fixture mode.** `FIXTURE_PATH` sets `API_BASE=''`, so the report header showed a bare "/api/..." path that never resolved — making a fixture run visually indistinguishable from a live run. Now surfaces `Source: fixture://<path>` in fixture mode. 2. **`loadCountryNameMap` crashes without useful diagnostics.** A missing or unparseable `shared/country-names.json` produced a raw unhandled rejection. Now the read and the parse are each wrapped in their own try/catch; on either failure the script logs a developer-friendly warning and falls back to ISO-2 codes (report shows "AE" instead of "Uae"). Keeps the audit operable in CI-offline scenarios. 3. **Unicode minus `−` (U+2212) instead of ASCII `-` in `fmtDelta`.** Downstream operators diff / grep / CSV-pipe the report; the Unicode minus breaks byte-level text tooling. Replaced with ASCII hyphen- minus. Left the U+2212 in the formula-mode diagnostic prose (`|Σ contributions − overallScore|`) where it's mathematical notation, not data. Verified - `npx tsx --test tests/audit-cohort-formula-detection.test.mts tests/resilience-construct-invariants.test.mts` — 15 pass / 0 fail - Fixture-mode run produces `Source: fixture://tests/fixtures/...` - Movers-table negative deltas now use ASCII `-` |
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|
Elie Habib
|
d521924253 |
fix(resilience): fail closed on missing v2 energy seeds + health CRIT on absent inputs (#3363)
* fix(resilience): fail closed on missing v2 energy seeds + health CRIT on absent inputs PR #3289 shipped the v2 energy construct behind RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED (default false). Audit on 2026-04-24 after the user flagged "AE only moved 1.49 points — we added nuclear credit, we should see more" revealed two safety gaps that made a future flag flip unsafe: 1. scoreEnergyV2 silently fell back to IMPUTE when any of its three required Redis seeds (low-carbon-generation, fossil-electricity-share, power-losses) was null. A future operator flipping the flag with seeds absent would produce fabricated-looking numbers for every country with zero operator signal. 2. api/health.js had those three seed labels in BOTH SEED_META (CRIT on missing) AND ON_DEMAND_KEYS (which demotes CRIT to WARN). The demotion won. Health has been reporting WARNING on a scorer dependency that has been 100% missing since PR #3289 merged — no paging trail existed. Changes: server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_dimension-scorers.ts - Add ResilienceConfigurationError with missingKeys[] payload. - scoreEnergy: preflight the three v2 seeds when flag=true. Throw ResilienceConfigurationError listing the specific absent keys. - scoreAllDimensions: wrap per-dimension dispatch in try/catch so a thrown ResilienceConfigurationError routes to the source-failure shape (imputationClass='source-failure', coverage=0) for that ONE dimension — country keeps scoring other dims normally. Log once per country-dimension pair so the gap is audit-traceable. api/health.js - Remove lowCarbonGeneration / fossilElectricityShare / powerLosses from ON_DEMAND_KEYS. They stay in BOOTSTRAP_KEYS + SEED_META. - Replace the transitional comment with a hard "do NOT add these back" note pointing at the scorer's fail-closed gate. tests/resilience-energy-v2.test.mts - New test: flag on + ALL three seeds missing → throws ResilienceConfigurationError naming all three keys. - New test: flag on + only one seed missing → throws naming ONLY the missing key (operator-clarity guard). - New test: flag on + all seeds present → v2 runs normally. - Update the file-level invariant comment to reflect the new fail-closed contract (replacing the prior "degrade gracefully" wording that codified the silent-IMPUTE bug). - Note: fixture's `??` fallbacks coerce null-overrides into real data, so the preflight tests use a direct-reader helper. docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx - New "Fail-closed semantics" paragraph in the v2 Energy section documenting the throw + source-failure + health-CRIT contract. Non-goals (intentional): - This PR does NOT flip RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED. - This PR does NOT provision seed-bundle-resilience-energy-v2 on Railway. - This PR does NOT touch RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED. Operational effect post-merge: - /api/health flips from WARNING → CRITICAL on the three v2 seed-meta entries. That is the intended alarm; it reveals that the Railway bundle was never provisioned. - scoreEnergy behavior with flag=false is unchanged (legacy path). - scoreEnergy behavior with flag=true + seeds present is unchanged. - scoreEnergy behavior with flag=true + seeds absent changes from "silently IMPUTE all 217 countries" to "source-failure on the energy dim for every country, visible in widget + API response". Tests: 511/511 resilience-* pass. Biome clean. Lint:md clean. Related plan: docs/plans/2026-04-24-001-fix-resilience-v2-fail-closed-on-missing-seeds-plan.md * docs(resilience): scrub stale ON_DEMAND_KEYS references for v2 energy seeds Greptile P2 on PR #3363: four stale references implied the three v2 energy seeds were still gated as ON_DEMAND_KEYS (WARN-on-missing) even though this PR's api/health.js change removed them (now strict SEED_META = CRIT on missing). Scrubbing each: - api/health.js:196 (BOOTSTRAP_KEYS comment) — was "ON_DEMAND_KEYS until Railway cron provisions; see below." Updated to cite plan 2026-04-24-001 and the strict-SEED_META posture. - api/health.js:398 (SEED_META comment) — was "Listed in ON_DEMAND_KEYS below until Railway cron provisions..." Updated for same reason. - docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx:635 — v2.1 changelog entry said seed keys were ON_DEMAND_KEYS until graduation. Replaced with the fail-closed contract description. - docs/methodology/energy-v2-flag-flip-runbook.md:25 — step 3 said "ON_DEMAND_KEYS graduation" was required at flag-flip time. Rewrote to explain no graduation step is needed because the posture was removed pre-activation. No code change. Tests still 14/14 on the energy-v2 suite, lint:md clean. * fix(docs): escape MDX-unsafe `<=` in energy-v2 runbook to unblock Mintlify Mintlify deploy on PR #3363 failed with `Unexpected character '=' (U+003D) before name` at `docs/methodology/energy-v2-flag-flip-runbook.md`. Two lines had `<=` in plain prose, which MDX tries to parse as a JSX-tag-start. Replaced both with `≤` (U+2264) — and promoted the two existing `>=` on adjacent lines to `≥` for consistency. Prose is clearer and MDX safe. Same pattern as `mdx-unsafe-patterns-in-md` skill; also adjacent to PR #3344's `(<137 countries)` fix. |
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Elie Habib
|
53c50f4ba9 |
fix(swf): move manifest next to its loader so Railway ships it (#3344)
PR #3336 fixed the yaml dep but the next Railway tick crashed with `ENOENT: no such file or directory, open '/docs/methodology/swf-classification-manifest.yaml'`. Root cause: the loader at scripts/shared/swf-manifest-loader.mjs resolved `../../docs/methodology/swf-classification-manifest.yaml`, which works in a full repo checkout but lands at `/docs/...` (outside `/app`) in the Railway recovery-bundle container. That service has rootDirectory=scripts/ in the dashboard, so NIXPACKS only copies `scripts/` into the image — `docs/` is never shipped. Fix: move the YAML to scripts/shared/swf-classification-manifest.yaml, alongside its loader. MANIFEST_PATH becomes `./swf-classification-manifest.yaml` so the file is always adjacent to the code that reads it, regardless of rootDirectory. Tests: 53/53 SWF tests still pass; biome clean on changed files. |
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Elie Habib
|
d3d406448a |
feat(resilience): PR 2 §3.4 recovery-domain weight rebalance (#3328)
* feat(resilience): PR 2 §3.4 recovery-domain weight rebalance
Dials the two PR 2 §3.4 recovery dims (liquidReserveAdequacy,
sovereignFiscalBuffer) to ~10% share each of the recovery-domain
score via a new per-dimension weight channel in the coverage-weighted
mean. Matches the plan's direction that the sovereign-wealth signal
complement — rather than dominate — the classical liquid-reserves
and fiscal-space signals.
Implementation
- RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS: new Record<ResilienceDimensionId, number>
alongside RESILIENCE_DOMAIN_WEIGHTS. Every dim has an explicit entry
(default 1.0) so rebalance decisions stay auditable; the two new
recovery dims carry 0.5 each.
Share math at full coverage (6 active recovery dims):
weight sum = 4 × 1.0 + 2 × 0.5 = 5.0
each new-dim share = 0.5 / 5.0 = 0.10 ✓
each core-dim share = 1.0 / 5.0 = 0.20
Retired dims (reserveAdequacy, fuelStockDays) keep weight 1.0 in
the map; their coverage=0 neutralizes them at the coverage channel
regardless. Explicit entries guard against a future scorer bug
accidentally returning coverage>0 for a retired dim and falling
through the `?? 1.0` default — every retirement decision is now
tied to a single explicit source of truth.
- coverageWeightedMean (_shared.ts): refactored to apply
`coverage × dimWeight` per dim instead of `coverage` alone. Backward-
compatible when all weights default to 1.0 (reduces to the original
mean). All three aggregation callers — buildDomainList, baseline-
Score, stressScore — pick up the weighting transparently.
Test coverage
1. New `tests/resilience-recovery-weight-rebalance.test.mts`:
pins the per-dim weight values, asserts the share math
(0.10 new / 0.20 core), verifies completeness of the weight map,
and documents why retired dims stay in the map at 1.0.
2. New `tests/resilience-recovery-ordering.test.mts`: fixture-based
Spearman-proxy sensitivity check. Asserts NO > US > YE ordering
preserved on both the overall score and the recovery-domain
subscore after the rebalance. (Live post-merge Spearman rerun
against the PR 0 snapshot is tracked as a follow-up commit.)
3. resilience-scorers.test.mts fixture anchors updated in lockstep:
baselineScore: 60.35 → 62.17 (low-scoring liquidReserveAdequacy
+ partial-coverage SWF now contribute ~half the weight)
overallScore: 63.60 → 64.39 (recovery subscore lifts by ~3 pts
from the rebalance, overall by ~0.79)
recovery flat mean: 48.75 (unchanged — flat mean doesn't apply
weights by design; documents the coverage-weighted diff)
Local coverageWeightedMean helper in the test mirrors the
production implementation (weights applied per dim).
Methodology doc
- New "Per-dimension weights in the recovery domain" subsection with
the weight table and a sentence explaining the cap. Cross-references
the source of truth (RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS).
Deliberate non-goals
- Live post-merge Spearman ≥0.85 check against the PR 0 baseline
snapshot. Fixture ordering is preserved (new ordering test); the
live-data check runs after Railway cron refreshes the rankings on
the new weights and commits docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-live-
post-pr2-<date>.json. Tracked as the final piece of PR 2 §3.4
alongside the health.js / bootstrap graduation (waiting on the
7-day Railway cron bake-in window).
Tests: 6588/6588 data-tier tests pass. Typecheck clean on both
tsconfig configs. Biome clean on touched files. NO > US > YE
fixture ordering preserved.
* fix(resilience): PR 2 review — thread RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS through the comparison harness
Greptile P2: the operator comparison harness
(scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs) claims its domain
scores "mirror the production scorer's coverage-weighted mean" and is
the artifact generator for Spearman / rank-delta acceptance decisions.
After PR 2 §3.4's weight rebalance, the production mirror diverged —
production now applies RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS (liquidReserveAdequacy
= 0.5, sovereignFiscalBuffer = 0.5) inside coverageWeightedMean, but
the harness still used equal-weight aggregation.
Left unfixed, post-merge Spearman / rank-delta diagnostics would
compare live API scores (with the 0.5 recovery weights) against
harness predictions that assume equal-share dims — silently biasing
every acceptance decision until someone noticed a country's rank-
delta didn't track.
Fix
- Mirrored coverageWeightedMean now accepts dimensionWeights and
applies `coverage × weight` per dim, matching _shared.ts exactly.
- Mirrored buildDomainList accepts + forwards dimensionWeights.
- main() imports RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS from the scorer module
and passes it through to buildDomainList at the single call site.
- Missing-entry default = 1.0 (same contract as production) — makes
the harness forward-compatible with any future weight refactor
(adds a new dim without an explicit entry, old production fallback
path still produces the correct number).
Verification
- Harness syntax-check clean (node -c).
- RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS import resolves correctly from the
harness's import path.
- 509/509 resilience tests still pass (harness isn't in the test
suite; the invariant is that production ↔ harness use the same
math, and the production side is covered by tests/resilience-
recovery-weight-rebalance.test.mts).
* fix(resilience): PR 2 review — bump cache prefixes v10→v11 + document coverage-vs-weight asymmetry
Greptile P1 + P2 on PR #3328.
P1 — cache prefix not bumped after formula change
--------------------------------------------------
The per-dim weight rebalance changes the score formula, but the
`_formula` tag only distinguishes 'd6' vs 'pc' (pillar-combined vs
legacy 6-domain) — it does NOT detect intra-'d6' weight changes. Left
unfixed, scores cached before deploy would be served with the old
equal-weight math for up to the full 6h TTL, and the ranking key for
up to its 12h TTL. Matches the established v9→v10 pattern for every
prior formula-changing deploy.
Bumped in lockstep:
- RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX: v10 → v11
- RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY: v10 → v11
- RESILIENCE_HISTORY_KEY_PREFIX: v5 → v6
- scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs local mirrors
- api/health.js resilienceRanking literal
- 4 analysis/backtest scripts that read the cached keys directly
- Test fixtures in resilience-{ranking, handlers, scores-seed,
pillar-aggregation}.test.* that assert on literal key values
The v5→v6 history bump is the critical one: without it, pre-rebalance
history points would mix with post-rebalance points inside the 30-day
window, and change30d / trend math would diff values from different
formulas against each other, producing false-negative "falling" trends
for every country across the deploy window.
P2 — coverage-vs-weight asymmetry in computeLowConfidence / computeOverallCoverage
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reviewer flagged that these two functions still average coverage
equally across all non-retired dims, even after the scoring aggregation
started applying RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_WEIGHTS. The asymmetry is
INTENTIONAL — these signals answer a different question from scoring:
scoring aggregation: "how much does each dim matter to the score?"
coverage signal: "how much real data do we have on this country?"
A dim at weight 0.5 still has the same data-availability footprint as
a weight=1.0 dim: its coverage value reflects whether we successfully
fetched the upstream source, not whether the scorer cares about it.
Applying scoring weights to the coverage signal would let a
half-weight dim hide half its sparsity from the overallCoverage pill,
misleading users reading coverage as a data-quality indicator.
Added explicit comments to both functions noting the asymmetry is
deliberate and pointing at the other site for matching rationale.
No code change — just documentation.
Tests: 6588/6588 data-tier tests pass (+511 resilience-specific
including the prefix-literal assertions). Typecheck clean on both
tsconfig configs. Biome clean on touched files.
* docs(resilience): bump methodology doc cache-prefix references to v11/v6
Greptile P2 on PR #3328: Redis keys table in the reproducibility
appendix still published `score:v10` / `ranking:v10` / `history:v5`,
and the rollback instructions told operators to flush those keys.
After the recovery-domain weight rebalance, live cache runs at
`score:v11` / `ranking:v11` / `history:v6`.
- Updated the Redis keys table (line 490-492) to match `_shared.ts`.
- Updated the rollback block to name the current keys.
- Left the historical "Activation sequence" narrative intact (it
accurately describes the pillar-combine PR's v9→v10 / v4→v5 bump)
but added a parenthetical pointing at the current v11/v6 values.
No code change — doc-only correction for operator accuracy.
* fix(docs): escape MDX-unsafe `<137` pattern to unblock Mintlify deploy
Line 643 had `(<137 countries)` — MDX parses `<137` as a JSX tag
starting with digit `1`, which is illegal and breaks the deploy with
"Unexpected character \`1\` (U+0031) before name". Surfaced after the
prior cache-prefix commit forced Mintlify to re-parse this file.
Replaced with "fewer than 137 countries" for unambiguous rendering.
Other `<` occurrences in this doc (lines 34, 642) are followed by
whitespace and don't trip MDX's tag parser.
|
||
|
Elie Habib
|
99b536bfb4 |
docs(energy): /corrections revision-log page (Week 4 launch requirement) (#3323)
* docs(energy): /corrections revision-log page (Week 4 launch requirement)
All five methodology pages reference /corrections (the auto-revision-log
URL promised in the Global Energy Flow parity plan §20) but the page
didn't exist — clicks 404'd. This lands the page.
Content:
- Explains the revision-log shape: `{date, assetOrEventId, fieldChanged,
previousValue, newValue, trigger, sourcesUsed, classifierVersion}`.
- Defines the trigger vocabulary (classifier / source / decay / override)
so readers know what kind of change they're seeing.
- States the v1-launch truth honestly: the log is empty at launch and
fills as the post-launch classifier pass (in proactive-intelligence.mjs)
runs on its normal schedule. No fake entries, no placeholder rows.
- Documents the correction-submission path (operators / regulators /
researchers with public source URLs) and the contract that
corrections write `override`-trigger entries citing the submitted
source — not anonymous overrides.
- Cross-links all five methodology pages.
- Explains WHY we publish this: evidence-first classification only
works if the audit trail is public; otherwise "the classifier said
so" has no more authority than any other opaque pipeline.
Also fixes a navigation gap: docs/docs.json was missing both
methodology/disruptions (landed in PR #3294 but never registered in
nav) and the new corrections page. Both now appear in the "Intelligence
& Analysis" group alongside the other methodology pages.
No code changes. MDX lint + docs.json JSON validation pass.
* docs(energy): reframe /corrections as planned-surface spec (P1 review fix)
Greptile P1: the prior /corrections page made live-product claims
("writes an append-only entry here", "expect the first entries within
days", "email corrections@worldmonitor.app") that the code doesn't
back. The revision-log writer ships with the post-launch classifier;
the correction-intake pipeline does not yet exist; and the related
detail handlers still return empty `revisions` arrays with code
comments explicitly marking the surface as future work.
Fix: rewrite the page as a planned-surface specification with a
prominent Status callout. Changes:
- Page title: "Revision Log" → "Revision Log (Planned)"
- Prominent <Note> callout at the top states v1 launch truth: log is
not yet live, RPC `revisions` arrays are empty by design,
corrections are handled manually today.
- "Current state (v1 launch)" section removed; replaced with two
explicit sections: "What IS live today" (evidence bundles,
methodology, versioned classifier output) and "What is NOT live
today" (log entries, automated correction intake, override-writer).
- "Within days" timeline language removed — no false operational SLA.
- Email submission path removed (no automated intake exists). Points
readers to GitHub issues for manual review today.
- Preserves the planned data shape, trigger vocabulary, policy
commitment, and "why we publish this" framing — those are spec, not
claims.
Also softens /corrections references in the four methodology pages
(pipelines, storage, shortages, disruptions) so none of them claim
the revision log is live. Each now says "planned revision-log shape
and submission policy" and points manual corrections at GitHub issues.
MDX lint 122/122 clean. docs.json JSON validation clean. No code
changes; pure reframing to match reality.
* docs(shortages): fix P1 overclaim + wrong RPC name (round-2 review)
Two findings on the same file:
P1 — `energy_asset_overrides` table documented as existing. It doesn't.
The PR's corrections.mdx explicitly lists the override-writer as NOT
live in v1; this section contradicted that. Rewrote as "Break-glass
overrides (planned)" with a clear Status callout matching the pattern
established in docs/corrections.mdx and the other methodology pages.
Points readers at GitHub issues for manual corrections today.
P2 — Wrong RPC name: `listActiveFuelShortages` doesn't exist. The
shipped RPC (in proto/worldmonitor/supply_chain/v1/
list_fuel_shortages.proto + server/worldmonitor/supply-chain/v1/
list-fuel-shortages.ts) is `ListFuelShortages`. Replaced the name +
reframed the sentence to describe what the actual RPC already exposes
(every FuelShortageEntry includes evidence.evidenceSources[]) rather
than projecting a future surface.
Also swept the other methodology pages for the same class of bug:
- grep for _overrides: only the one line above
- grep for listActive/ getActive RPC names: none found
- verified all RPC mentions in docs/methodology + docs/corrections.mdx
match names actually in proto (ListPipelines, ListStorageFacilities,
ListFuelShortages, ListEnergyDisruptions, GetPipelineDetail,
GetStorageFacilityDetail, GetFuelShortageDetail)
MDX lint clean. No code changes.
* docs(methodology): round-3 sibling sweep for revision-log overclaims
Reviewer (Greptile) caught a third round of the same overclaim pattern
I've been trying to stamp out: docs/methodology/shortages.mdx line 46
said "Stale shortages never persist silently. Every demotion writes to
the public revision log." — contradicting the same PR's /corrections
page which explicitly frames the revision log as not-yet-live. Fixed
that one AND did the mechanical sibling sweep the review pattern
clearly called for.
Changes:
- `docs/methodology/shortages.mdx:46` — rewrote the auto-decay footer
to future tense: "When the post-launch classifier ships, stale
shortages will never persist silently — every demotion will write
an entry to the planned public revision log." Points readers at
/corrections for the designed shape. Notes that today the demotion
thresholds ARE the contract; the structured audit trail is what
lands with the classifier.
- `docs/methodology/chokepoints.mdx:64` — sibling sweep caught the
same bug class ("Every badge transition writes to the public
revision log"). Reworded to future tense and pointed manual
corrections at GitHub issues, matching the pattern already applied
to pipelines / storage / shortages in prior commits on this PR.
Final audit of remaining revision-log mentions across all 5
methodology pages + corrections.mdx — every one uses hedged tense now
("planned", "will", "when live", "designed", "not yet live", "once
the classifier ships"). The one remaining present-tense "emit" in
shortages.mdx:77 is inside the "(planned)" break-glass section with
its own Status callout, so it's correctly scoped.
Following the plan-doc-as-docs-source-overclaim skill's step-4
(sibling sweep) explicitly this time — which also retroactively
validates the skill extraction: three review rounds was the cost of
not running the sweep on round 1.
MDX lint clean. No code changes.
* docs(corrections): drop hardcoded launch date (Greptile P2)
Greptile inline P2 at docs/corrections.mdx:60: the phrase
"v1 launch (2026-04-23)" pins a specific calendar date that will read
inaccurately to visitors months later once entries start appearing.
Dropped the parenthetical date. "Status — v1 launch:" keeps the
scoping clear without tying it to a specific day. When live entries
start appearing on this page (or when the page is rewritten to show
real rows), a "last updated" marker will replace the status callout
entirely — no migration churn needed.
MDX lint 122/122 clean.
|
||
|
Elie Habib
|
7f83e1e0c3 |
chore: remove dormant proactive-intelligence agent (superseded by digest) (#3325)
* chore: remove dormant proactive-intelligence agent (superseded by digest) PR #2889 merged a Phase 4 "Proactive Intelligence Agent" in 2026-04 with 588 lines of code and a PR body explicitly requiring a 6h Railway cron service. That service was never provisioned — no Dockerfile, no Railway entry, no health-registry key, all 7 test-plan checkboxes unchecked. In the meantime the daily Intelligence Brief shipped via scripts/seed-digest-notifications.mjs (PR #3321 and earlier), covering the same "personalized editorial brief across all channels" use-case at a different cadence (30m rather than 6h). The proactive agent's landscape-diff trigger was speculative; the digest is the shipped equivalent. This PR retires the dormant code and scrubs the aspirational "post-launch classifier" references that docs + comments have been quietly carrying: - Deleted scripts/proactive-intelligence.mjs (588 lines). - scripts/_energy-disruption-registry.mjs, scripts/seed-fuel-shortages.mjs, scripts/_fuel-shortage-registry.mjs, src/shared/shortage-evidence.ts: dropped "proactive-intelligence.mjs will extend this registry / classifier output" comments. Registries are curated-only; no classifier exists. - docs/methodology/disruptions.mdx: replaced "post-launch classifier" prose with the accurate "curated-only" description of how the event log is maintained. - docs/api-notifications.mdx: envelope version is shared across **two** producers now (notification-relay, seed-digest-notifications), not three. - scripts/notification-relay.cjs: one cross-producer comment updated. - proto/worldmonitor/supply_chain/v1/list_energy_disruptions.proto + list_fuel_shortages.proto: same aspirational wording scrubbed. - docs/api/SupplyChainService.openapi.{yaml,json} auto-regenerated via `make generate` — text-only description updates, no schema changes. Net: -626 lines, +36 lines. No runtime behavior change. 6573/6573 unit tests pass locally. * fix(proto): scrub stale ListFuelShortages RPC comment (PR #3325 review) Reviewer caught a stale "classifier-extended post-launch" comment on the ListFuelShortages RPC method in service.proto that this PR's initial pass missed — I fixed the message-definition comment in list_fuel_shortages.proto but not the RPC-method comment in service.proto, which propagates into the published OpenAPI operation description. - proto/worldmonitor/supply_chain/v1/service.proto: rewrite the ListFuelShortages RPC comment to match the curated-only framing used elsewhere in this PR. - docs/api/SupplyChainService.openapi.{yaml,json}: auto-regenerated via `make generate`. Text-only operation-description update; no schema / contract changes. No runtime impact. Other `classifier` references remaining in the OpenAPI are legitimate schema field names (classifierVersion, classifierConfidence) and an unrelated auto-revision-log trigger enum value, both of which describe real on-row fields that existed before this cleanup. |
||
|
Elie Habib
|
c48ceea463 |
feat(resilience): PR 2 dimension wiring — split reserveAdequacy + add sovereignFiscalBuffer (#3324)
* feat(resilience): PR 2 dimension wiring — split reserveAdequacy + add sovereignFiscalBuffer Plan §3.4 follow-up to #3305 + #3319. Lands the scorer + dimension registration so the SWF seed from the Railway cron feeds a real score once the bake-in window closes. No weight rebalance yet (separate commit with Spearman sensitivity check), no health.js graduation yet (7-day ON_DEMAND window per feedback_health_required_key_needs_ railway_cron_first.md), no bootstrap wiring yet (follow-up PR). Shape of the change Retirement: - reserveAdequacy joins fuelStockDays in RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS. The legacy scorer now mirrors scoreFuelStockDays: returns coverage=0 / imputationClass=null so the dimension is filtered out of the confidence / coverage averages via the registry filter in computeLowConfidence, computeOverallCoverage, and the widget's formatResilienceConfidence. Kept in RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER for structural continuity (tests, cached payload shape, registry membership). Indicator registry tier demoted to 'experimental'. Two new active dimensions: - liquidReserveAdequacy (replaces the liquid-reserves half of the retired reserveAdequacy). Same source (WB FI.RES.TOTL.MO, total reserves in months of imports) but re-anchored 1..12 months instead of 1..18. Twelve months ≈ IMF "full reserve adequacy" benchmark for a diversified emerging-market importer — the tighter ceiling prevents wealthy commodity-exporters from claiming outsized credit for on-paper reserve stocks that are not the relevant shock-absorption buffer. - sovereignFiscalBuffer. Reads resilience:recovery:sovereign-wealth:v1 (populated by scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs, landed in #3305 + wired into Railway cron in #3319). Computes the saturating transform: effectiveMonths = Σ [ aum/annualImports × 12 × access × liquidity × transparency ] score = 100 × (1 − exp(−effectiveMonths / 12)) Exponential saturation prevents Norway-type outliers (effective months in the 100s) from dominating the recovery pillar. Three code paths in scoreSovereignFiscalBuffer: 1. Seed key absent entirely → IMPUTE.recoverySovereignFiscalBuffer (score 50 / coverage 0.3 / unmonitored). Covers the Railway-cron bake-in window before the first successful tick. 2. Seed present, country NOT in manifest → score=0 with FULL coverage. Substantive absence, NOT imputation — per plan §3.4 "What happens to no-SWF countries." 0 × weight = 0 in the numerator, so the country correctly scores lower than SWF-holding peers on this dim. 3. Seed present, country in payload → saturating score, coverage derated by the partial-seed completeness signal (so a Mubadala or Temasek scrape drift on a multi-fund country shows up as lower confidence rather than a silently-understated total). Indicator registry: - Demoted recoveryReserveMonths (tied to retired reserveAdequacy) to tier='experimental'. - Added recoveryLiquidReserveMonths: WB FI.RES.TOTL.MO, anchors 1..12, tier='core', coverage=188. - Added recoverySovereignWealthEffectiveMonths: the new SWF signal, tier='experimental' for now because the manifest only has 8 funds (below the 180-core / 137-§3.6-gate threshold). Graduating to 'core' requires expanding the manifest past ~137 entries — a later PR. Tests updated - resilience-release-gate: 19→21 dim count; RETIRED_DIMENSIONS allow- list now includes reserveAdequacy alongside fuelStockDays. - resilience-dimension-scorers: scoreReserveAdequacy monotonicity + "high reserves score well" tests migrated to scoreLiquidReserve- Adequacy (same source, new 1..12 anchor). New retirement-shape test for scoreReserveAdequacy mirroring the PR 3 fuelStockDays retirement test. Four new scorer tests pin the three code paths of scoreSovereignFiscalBuffer (absent seed / no-SWF country / SWF country / partial-completeness derate). - resilience-scorers fixture: baseline 60.12→60.35, recovery-domain flat mean 47.33→48.75, overall 63.27→63.6. Each number commented with the driver (split adds liquidReserveAdequacy 18@1.0 + sovereign FiscalBuffer 50@0.3 at IMPUTE; retired reserveAdequacy drops out). - resilience-dimension-monotonicity: target scoreLiquidReserveAdequacy instead of scoreReserveAdequacy. - resilience-handlers: response-shape dim count 19→21. - resilience-indicator-registry: coverage 19→21 dimensions. - resilience-dimension-freshness: allowlisted the new sovereign-wealth seed-meta key in KNOWN_SEEDS_NOT_IN_HEALTH for the ON_DEMAND window. - resilience-methodology-lint HEADING_TO_DIMENSION: added the two new heading mappings. Methodology doc gets H4 sections for Liquid Reserve Adequacy and Sovereign Fiscal Buffer; Reserve Adequacy section is annotated as retired. - resilience-retired-dimensions-parity: client-side RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSION_IDS gets reserveAdequacy. Parser upgraded to strip inline `// …` comments from the array body so a future reviewer can drop a rationale next to an entry without breaking parity. - resilience-confidence-averaging: fixture updated to include both retired dims (reserveAdequacy + fuelStockDays) — confirms the registry filter correctly excludes BOTH from the visible coverage reading. Extraction harness (scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs): - recoveryLiquidReserveMonths: reads the same reserve-adequacy seed field as recoveryReserveMonths. - recoverySovereignWealthEffectiveMonths: reads the new SWF seed key on field totalEffectiveMonths. Absent-payload → 0 for correlation math (matches the substantive-no-SWF scorer branch). Out of scope for this commit (follow-ups) - Recovery-domain weight rebalance + Spearman sensitivity rerun against the PR 0 baseline. - health.js graduation (SEED_META entry + ON_DEMAND_KEYS removal) once Railway cron has ~7 days of clean runs. - api/bootstrap.js wiring once an RPC consumer needs the SWF data. - Manifest expansion past 137 countries so sovereignFiscalBuffer can graduate from tier='experimental' to tier='core'. Tests: 6573/6573 data-tier tests pass. Typecheck clean on both tsconfig configs. Biome clean on all touched files. * fix(resilience): PR 2 review — add widget labels for new dimensions P2 review finding on PR #3324. DIMENSION_LABELS in src/components/ resilience-widget-utils.ts covered only the old 19 dimension IDs, so the two new active dims (liquidReserveAdequacy, sovereignFiscalBuffer) would render with their raw internal IDs in the confidence grid for every country once the scorer started emitting them. The widget test at getResilienceDimensionLabel also asserted only the 19-label set, so the gap would have shipped silently. Fix: add user-facing short labels for both new dims. "Reserves" is already claimed by the retired reserveAdequacy, so the replacement disambiguates with "Liquid Reserves"; sovereignFiscalBuffer → "Sovereign Wealth" per the methodology doc H4 heading. Also added a regression guard — new test asserts EVERY id in RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER resolves to a non-id label. Any future dimension that ships without a matching DIMENSION_LABELS entry now fails CI loudly instead of leaking the ID into the UI. Tests: 502/502 resilience tests pass (+1 new coverage check). Typecheck clean on both configs. * fix(resilience): PR 2 review — remove dead IMPUTE.recoveryReserveAdequacy entry Greptile P2: the retired scoreReserveAdequacy stub no longer reads from IMPUTE (it hardcodes coverage=0 / imputationClass=null per the retirement pattern), making IMPUTE.recoveryReserveAdequacy dead code. Removed the entry + added a breadcrumb comment pointing at the replacement IMPUTE.recoveryLiquidReserveAdequacy. The second P2 (bootstrap.js not wired) is a deliberate non-goal — the reviewer explicitly flags "for visibility" since it's tracked in the PR body. No action this commit; bootstrap wiring lands alongside the SEED_META graduation after the ~7-day Railway-cron bake-in. Tests: 502/502 resilience tests still pass. Typecheck clean. |
||
|
Elie Habib
|
8032dc3a04 |
feat(resilience): PR 2 pre-scorer — SWF manifest + seeder (8/8 funds) (#3305)
* feat(resilience): PR 2 scaffolding — SWF classification manifest + seeder skeleton
Plan §3.4. First of multiple commits for PR 2 (fiscal-buffer split
and sovereign-wealth integration). This commit is SCAFFOLDING ONLY:
no dimension wiring, no scorer, no cache-keys entry yet. The goal is
to land the reviewer-facing metadata and the seeder's three-tier
source shape so an external SWF practitioner can critique before we
wire the scorer.
What is in:
1. docs/methodology/swf-classification-manifest.yaml — authoritative
per-fund classification for the `sovereignFiscalBuffer` dimension.
First-pass estimates for the 8 funds named in plan §3.4 table:
Norway GPFG, UAE ADIA + Mubadala, Saudi PIF, Kuwait KIA,
Qatar QIA, Singapore GIC + Temasek. Each fund carries:
- three-component classification (access, liquidity, transparency)
each on [0, 1], with rationale text citing the mandate / fiscal
rule / asset-mix / transparency-index evidence
- source URLs for audit
Fund-candidates deferred for external-reviewer decision are listed
in a trailing comment block (CIC, NWF, SOFAZ, NSIA, Future Fund,
NZ Super, ESSF, etc.).
external_review_status: PENDING — flip to REVIEWED on sign-off.
2. scripts/shared/swf-manifest-loader.mjs — YAML parser + strict schema
validator. Fails loudly on any deviation (out-of-range scores,
non-ISO2 countries, missing rationale, duplicate fund IDs, wrong
manifest version). Single source of truth for the seeder, future
scorer, and methodology-doc linter.
3. scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs — seeder shell with the three-tier
source priority from plan §3.4:
1. Official fund disclosures (MoF, central-bank, annual reports)
2. IFSWF member filings
3. SWFI public fund-rankings page (license-free fallback, scraped)
Tiers 1-3 are all stubbed (return null) in this commit — the
seeder publishes a well-formed empty payload so the scorer IMPUTE
fallback can be exercised end-to-end without live data.
emptyDataIsFailure: false is set deliberately so pre-wiring cron
runs do not poison seed-meta (see
feedback_strict_floor_validate_fail_poisons_seed_meta.md).
SWFI scrape target is documented in the file header with the
exact URL and a 2.5s inter-request interval. The scraper itself
lands in the next commit after the external reviewer signs off
on the manifest.
4. tests/swf-classification-manifest.test.mjs — 14 tests exercising
both the shipped YAML (plan §3.4 required-fund presence, [0,1]
bounds, rationale length, source citations, multi-fund country
handling) and the validator's schema enforcement (rejects out-
of-range scores, non-ISO2 codes, missing rationale, empty sources,
duplicates, wrong version, invalid review status).
Out of scope for this commit (follow-ups, in order):
- Implement SWFI scrape + IFSWF parse + per-fund official endpoints
- Add `liquidReserveAdequacy` and `sovereignFiscalBuffer` dimensions
to RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER, registry, and scorers
- Retire `reserveAdequacy` via RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS
- cache-keys.ts + api/bootstrap.js + api/health.js wiring (new
seed key needs ON_DEMAND_KEYS gating per Railway-cron bake-in rule)
- Recovery-domain weight rebalance + Spearman sensitivity rerun
- Methodology doc: rewrite the reserveAdequacy section
Tests: 508/508 pass (resilience suite + new manifest tests).
Typecheck clean on both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
No external-facing behavior change — all files are new + isolated.
* feat(resilience): PR 2 commit 2 — Wikipedia SWF scraper + SWFI pivot
Implements Tier 3 of the sovereignFiscalBuffer seeder. Tier 1 (official
disclosures) and Tier 2 (IFSWF filings) remain stubbed — they require
per-fund bespoke adapters and will land incrementally.
SWFI pivot
----------
The plan's original Tier 3 target was
https://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/sovereign-wealth-fund. Live
check on 2026-04-23: the page's <tbody> is empty and AUM is gated
behind a lead-capture form (name + company + job title). SWFI per-fund
/profile/<id> pages are similarly barren. The "public fund rankings"
is effectively no longer public; scraping the lead-gated surface would
require submitting fabricated contact info (TOS violation, legally
questionable), so Tier 3 pivots to Wikipedia.
Wikipedia is legally clean (CC-BY-SA 4.0, attribution required — see
WIKIPEDIA_SOURCE_ATTRIBUTION in the seeder) and structurally scrapable.
The SWFI Linaburg-Maduell Transparency Index mentioned in manifest
rationale text is a SEPARATE SWFI publication (public index scores),
not the fund-rankings paywall — those citations stay valid.
What is in
----------
1. scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs — Wikipedia scraper implementation:
- parseWikipediaRankingsTable(html) — exported pure function so
the parser is unit-testable without a live fetch. Extracts the
wikitable, parses per-fund rows (Country, Abbrev, Fund name,
Assets USD B, Inception, Origin).
- Strip-HTML helper strips <sup> tags to SPACES (not empty) so
`302.0<sup>41</sup>` stays `302.0 41` — otherwise the decimal
value and its trailing footnote ref get welded into `302.041`,
which the Assets regex mis-parses.
- matchWikipediaRecord(fund, cache) — abbrev + fund-name lookup
with country disambiguation: lookup maps are now
Map<key, Record[]> (list) rather than Map<key, Record>, and the
matcher filters the list by manifest country before returning.
This is the exact fix for the PIF collision:
"PIF" resolves to BOTH Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund
(~USD 925B) and Palestine's Palestine Investment Fund (~USD 900M)
on the live article. Without country-filtering, Map.set silently
overwrites one with the other, so Saudi PIF would return
Palestine's AUM — three orders of magnitude wrong.
- When the country disambiguator cannot pick, returns null rather
than a best-guess. Seeder logs the unmatched fund; the IMPUTE
path handles it gracefully.
2. docs/methodology/swf-classification-manifest.yaml — added
`wikipedia` hints block to each of the 8 funds (abbrev and/or
fund_name, matching Wikipedia's canonical naming).
3. scripts/shared/swf-manifest-loader.mjs — optional `wikipedia` field
in the schema: `abbrev` and `fund_name` both optional strings, but
at least one must be present if the block is provided.
4. tests/seed-sovereign-wealth.test.mjs — 12 tests exercising:
- fixture-based parser: abbrev/name indexing, HTML + footnote
stripping, decimal AUM, malformed rows skipped, missing-table error
- abbrev-collision handling: both candidates retained in the list
- country-disambiguation matcher: Saudi PIF correctly picked from
a Saudi-vs-Palestine collision fixture (the exact live bug)
- ambiguous lookup with unknown country returns null, not wrong record
Live verification against the shipped Wikipedia article: 7/8 funds
matched with the correct country; Saudi PIF now correctly returns
USD 925B (not Palestine's USD 0.9B) because of the country-
disambiguation fix. Temasek is the one miss — Wikipedia does not
classify it as an SWF (practitioner debate; it lists under "state
holding companies" instead). Falls through to IMPUTE in the scorer
until Tier 1/2 adapters land with an official-disclosure source.
Tests: 522/522 pass (resilience + manifest + scraper).
Typecheck clean on both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
Still stubbed for later commits:
- Tier 1 per-fund official-disclosure adapters (incl. Temasek)
- Tier 2 IFSWF secretariat parser
- Dimension wiring (liquidReserveAdequacy, sovereignFiscalBuffer)
- reserveAdequacy retirement via RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS
- cache-keys / bootstrap / health.js wiring (ON_DEMAND_KEYS until bake-in)
- Recovery-domain weight rebalance + Spearman sensitivity rerun
* feat(resilience): PR 2 commit 3 — Wikipedia infobox fallback + FX → 8/8 match
Closes the Temasek gap. The Wikipedia list article excludes Temasek on
editorial grounds (classified as a "state holding company" rather than
an SWF), so the Tier-3 list-only path topped out at 7/8 funds matched.
This commit adds Tier 3b — per-fund Wikipedia article infobox scrape
— and a baked-in FX table to handle non-USD infobox currencies.
Live verification on the shipped Wikipedia articles: 8/8 funds matched.
Temasek: S$ 434B → US$ 321B via infobox + SGD→USD FX.
Implementation
1. scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs
- FX_TO_USD table (USD, SGD, NOK, EUR, GBP, AED, SAR, KWD, QAR)
with FX_RATES_REVIEWED_AT='2026-04-23' committed into the seed
payload so stale rates are visible at audit time.
- CURRENCY_SYMBOL_TO_ISO ordered list — US$ tested before S$ before
bare $, and $ / kr require a space + digit neighbor to avoid
false-matches in rich prose.
- detectCurrency(text) exported pure for unit testing.
- parseWikipediaArticleInfobox(html) exported pure — scans rows
for "Total assets" / "Assets under management" / "AUM" / "Net
assets" / "Net portfolio value" labels, extracts "NUMBER (trillion
| billion | million) (YEAR)" values, applies FX conversion.
- fetchWikipediaInfobox(fund) — per-fund article fetch, gated on
the manifest's wikipedia.article_url hint.
- sourceMix split into {official, ifswf, wikipedia_list,
wikipedia_infobox} counters so the seed payload shows which tier
delivered each fund.
- Source priority chain: official → ifswf → wikipedia_list →
wikipedia_infobox. Infobox last because it is N network round-
trips; amortizing over the list article cache first minimizes
live traffic.
2. docs/methodology/swf-classification-manifest.yaml
- Temasek entry gains wikipedia.article_url:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temasek_Holdings with an inline
comment explaining why the list-article path misses.
3. scripts/shared/swf-manifest-loader.mjs
- article_url optional field; validator rejects anything that is
not a https://<lang>.wikipedia.org/... URL so a typo cannot
silently wire the seeder to an off-site fetch.
4. tests/seed-sovereign-wealth.test.mjs (10 new tests, 38/38 pass)
- detectCurrency distinguishes US$ vs S$ vs bare $.
- parseWikipediaArticleInfobox extracts Temasek S$ 434B → US$ 321B
with year tag from "(2025)".
- USD-native row pass-through with fxRate=1.0.
- NOK trillion conversion (NOK 18.7T → USD 1.74T).
- Returns null when no AUM row / no infobox at all.
- Documents the unknown-currency → USD fallback contract.
Tests: 532/532 pass (full resilience + manifest + scraper suite).
Typecheck clean on both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
Still stubbed for later commits:
- Tier 1 per-fund official-disclosure adapters
- Tier 2 IFSWF secretariat parser
- Dimension wiring (liquidReserveAdequacy, sovereignFiscalBuffer)
- reserveAdequacy retirement via RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS
- cache-keys / bootstrap / health.js wiring (ON_DEMAND_KEYS)
- Recovery-domain weight rebalance + Spearman sensitivity rerun
* refactor(resilience): reuse project-shared FX infrastructure for SWF seeder
Self-caught duplication from the previous commit (
|
||
|
Elie Habib
|
84ee2beb3e |
feat(energy): Energy Atlas end-to-end — pipelines + storage + shortages + disruptions + country drill-down (#3294)
* feat(energy): pipeline registries (gas + oil) — evidence-based schema
Day 6 of the Energy Atlas Release 1 plan (Week 2). First curated asset
registry for the atlas — the real gap vs GEF.
## Curated data (critical assets only, not global completeness)
scripts/data/pipelines-gas.json — 12 critical gas lines:
Nord Stream 1/2 (offline; Swedish EEZ sabotage 2022; EU sanctions refs),
TurkStream, Yamal–Europe (offline; Polish counter-sanctions),
Brotherhood/Soyuz (offline; Ukraine transit expired 2024-12-31),
Power of Siberia, Dolphin, Medgaz, TAP, TANAP,
Central Asia–China, Langeled.
scripts/data/pipelines-oil.json — 12 critical oil lines:
Druzhba North/South (N offline per EU 2022/879; S under landlocked
derogation), CPC, ESPO (+ price-cap sanction ref), BTC, TAPS,
Habshan–Fujairah (Hormuz bypass), Keystone, Kirkuk–Ceyhan (offline
since 2023 ICC ruling), Baku–Supsa, Trans-Mountain (TMX expansion
May 2024), ESPO spur to Daqing.
Scope note: 75+ each is Week 2b work via GEM bulk import. Today's cut
is curated from first-hand operator disclosures + regulator filings so
I can stand behind every evidence field.
## Evidence-based schema (not conclusion labels)
Per docs/methodology/pipelines.mdx: no bare `sanctions_blocked` field.
Every pipeline carries an evidence bundle with `physicalState`,
`physicalStateSource`, `operatorStatement`, `commercialState`,
`sanctionRefs[]`, `lastEvidenceUpdate`, `classifierVersion`,
`classifierConfidence`. The public badge (`flowing|reduced|offline|
disputed`) is derived server-side from this bundle at read time.
## Seeder
scripts/seed-pipelines.mjs — single process publishes BOTH keys
(energy:pipelines:{gas,oil}:v1) via two runSeed() calls. Tiny datasets
(<20KB each) so co-location is cheap and guarantees classifierVersion
consistency.
Conventions followed (worldmonitor-bootstrap-registration skill):
- TTL 21d = 3× weekly cadence (gold-standard per
feedback_seeder_gold_standard.md)
- maxStaleMin 20_160 = 2× cadence (health-maxstalemin-write-cadence skill)
- sourceVersion + schemaVersion + recordCount + declareRecords wired
(seed-contract-foundation)
- Zero-case explicitly NOT allowed — MIN_PIPELINES_PER_REGISTRY=8 floor
## Health registration (dual, per feedback_two_health_endpoints_must_match)
- api/health.js: BOOTSTRAP_KEYS adds pipelinesGas + pipelinesOil;
SEED_META adds both with maxStaleMin=20_160.
- api/seed-health.js: mirror entries with intervalMin=10_080 (maxStaleMin/2).
## Bundle registration
scripts/seed-bundle-energy-sources.mjs adds a single Pipelines entry
(not two) because seed-pipelines.mjs publishes both keys in one run —
listing oil separately would double-execute. Monitoring of the oil key
staleness happens in api/health.js instead.
## Tests (tests/pipelines-registry.test.mts)
17 passing node:test assertions covering:
- Schema validation (both registries pass validateRegistry)
- Identity resolution (no id collisions, id matches object key)
- Country ISO2 normalization (from/to/transit all match /^[A-Z]{2}$/)
- Endpoint geometry within Earth bounds
- Evidence rigor: non-flowing badges require at least one supporting
evidence source (operator statement / sanctionRefs / ais-relay /
satellite / press)
- ClassifierConfidence in 0..1
- Commodity/capacity pairing (gas uses capacityBcmYr, oil uses
capacityMbd — mixing = test fail)
- validateRegistry rejects: empty object, null, no-evidence fixtures,
below-floor counts
Typecheck clean (both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json).
Next: Day 7 will add list-pipelines / get-pipeline-detail RPCs in
supply-chain/v1. Day 8 ships PipelineStatusPanel with DeckGL PathLayer
consuming the registry.
* fix(energy): split seed-pipelines.mjs into two entry points — runSeed hard-exits
High finding from PR review. scripts/seed-pipelines.mjs called runSeed()
twice in one process and awaited Promise.all. But runSeed() in
scripts/_seed-utils.mjs hard-exits via process.exit on ~9 terminal paths
(lines 816, 820, 839, 888, 917, 989, plus fetch-retry 946, fatal 859,
skipped-lock 81). The first runSeed to reach any terminal path exits the
entire node process, so the second runSeed's resolve never fires — only
one of energy:pipelines:{gas,oil}:v1 would ever be written.
Since the bundle scheduled seed-pipelines.mjs exactly once, and both
api/health.js and api/seed-health.js expect both keys populated, the
other registry would stay permanently EMPTY/STALE after deploy.
Fix: split into two entry-point scripts around a shared utility.
- scripts/_pipeline-registry.mjs (NEW, was seed-pipelines.mjs) — shared
helpers ONLY. Exports GAS_CANONICAL_KEY, OIL_CANONICAL_KEY,
PIPELINES_TTL_SECONDS, MAX_STALE_MIN, buildGasPayload, buildOilPayload,
validateRegistry, recordCount, declareRecords. Underscore prefix marks
it as non-entry-point (matches _seed-utils.mjs / _seed-envelope-source.mjs
convention).
- scripts/seed-pipelines-gas.mjs (NEW) — imports from the shared module,
single runSeed('energy','pipelines-gas',…) call.
- scripts/seed-pipelines-oil.mjs (NEW) — same shape, oil.
- scripts/seed-bundle-energy-sources.mjs — register BOTH seeders (not one).
- scripts/seed-pipelines.mjs — deleted.
- tests/pipelines-registry.test.mts — update import path to the shared
module. All 17 tests still pass.
Typecheck clean (both configs). Tests pass. No other consumers import
from the deleted script.
* fix(energy): complete pipeline bootstrap registration per 4-file checklist
High finding from PR review. My earlier PR description claimed
worldmonitor-bootstrap-registration was complete, but I only touched two
of the four registries (api/health.js + api/seed-health.js). The bootstrap
hydration payload itself (api/bootstrap.js) and the shared cache-keys
registry (server/_shared/cache-keys.ts) still had no entry for either
pipeline key, so any consumer that reads bootstrap data would see
pipelinesGas/pipelinesOil as missing on first load.
Files updated this commit:
- api/bootstrap.js — KEYS map + SLOW_KEYS set both gain pipelinesGas +
pipelinesOil. Placed next to sprPolicies (same curated-registry cadence
and tier). Slow tier is correct: weekly cron, not needed on first paint.
- server/_shared/cache-keys.ts — PIPELINES_GAS_KEY + PIPELINES_OIL_KEY
exported constants (matches SPR_POLICIES_KEY pattern), BOOTSTRAP_KEYS map
entries, and BOOTSTRAP_TIERS entries (both 'slow').
Not touched (intentional):
- server/gateway.ts — pipeline data is free-tier per the Energy Atlas
plan; no PREMIUM_RPC_PATHS entry required. Energy Atlas monetization
hooks (scenario runner, MCP tools, subscriptions) are Release 2.
Full 4-file checklist now complete:
✅ server/_shared/cache-keys.ts (this commit)
✅ api/bootstrap.js (this commit)
✅ api/health.js (earlier in PR)
✅ api/seed-health.js (earlier in PR — dual-registry rule)
Typecheck clean (both configs).
* feat(energy): ListPipelines + GetPipelineDetail RPCs with evidence-derived badges
Day 7 of the Energy Atlas Release 1 plan (Week 2). Exposes the pipeline
registries (shipped in Day 6) via two supply-chain RPCs and ships the
evidence-to-badge derivation server-side.
## Proto
proto/worldmonitor/supply_chain/v1/list_pipelines.proto — new:
- ListPipelinesRequest { commodity_type?: 'gas' | 'oil' }
- ListPipelinesResponse { pipelines[], fetched_at, classifier_version, upstream_unavailable }
- GetPipelineDetailRequest { pipeline_id (required, query-param) }
- GetPipelineDetailResponse { pipeline?, revisions[], fetched_at, unavailable }
- PipelineEntry — wire shape mirroring scripts/data/pipelines-{gas,oil}.json
+ a server-derived public_badge field
- PipelineEvidence, OperatorStatement, SanctionRef, LatLon, PipelineRevisionEntry
service.proto adds both rpc methods with HTTP_METHOD_GET + path bindings:
/api/supply-chain/v1/list-pipelines
/api/supply-chain/v1/get-pipeline-detail
`make generate` regenerated src/generated/{client,server}/… + docs/api/
OpenAPI json/yaml.
## Evidence-derivation
server/worldmonitor/supply-chain/v1/_pipeline-evidence.ts — new.
derivePublicBadge(evidence) → 'flowing' | 'reduced' | 'offline' | 'disputed'
is deterministic + versioned (DERIVER_VERSION='badge-deriver-v1').
Rules (first match wins):
1. offline + sanctionRef OR expired/suspended commercial → offline
2. offline + operator statement → offline
3. offline + only press/ais/satellite → disputed (single-source negative claim)
4. reduced → reduced
5. flowing → flowing
6. unknown / malformed → disputed
Staleness guard: non-flowing badges on >14d-old evidence demote to
disputed. Flowing is the optimistic default — stale "still flowing" is
safer than stale "offline". Matches seed-pipelines-{gas,oil}.mjs maxStaleMin.
Tests (tests/pipeline-evidence-derivation.test.mts) — 15 passing cases
covering happy paths, disputed fallbacks, staleness guard, versioning.
## Handlers
server/worldmonitor/supply-chain/v1/list-pipelines.ts
- Reads energy:pipelines:{gas,oil}:v1 via getCachedJson.
- projectPipeline() narrows the Upstash `unknown` into PipelineEntry
shape + calls derivePublicBadge.
- Honors commodity_type filter (skip the opposite registry's Redis read
when the client pre-filters).
- Returns upstream_unavailable=true when BOTH registries miss.
server/worldmonitor/supply-chain/v1/get-pipeline-detail.ts
- Scans both registries by id (ids are globally unique per
tests/pipelines-registry.test.mts).
- Empty revisions[] for now; auto-revision log wires up in Week 3.
handler.ts registers both into supplyChainHandler.
## Gateway
server/gateway.ts adds 'static' cache-tier for both new RPC paths
(registry is slow-moving; 'static' matches the other read-mostly
supply-chain endpoints).
## Consumer wiring
Not in this commit — PipelineStatusPanel (Day 8) is what will call
listPipelines/getPipelineDetail via the generated client. pipelinesGas
+ pipelinesOil stay in PENDING_CONSUMERS until Day 8.
Typecheck clean (both configs). 15 new tests + 17 registry tests all pass.
* feat(energy): PipelineStatusPanel — evidence-backed status table + drawer
Day 8 of the Energy Atlas Release 1 plan. First consumer of the Day 6–7
registries + RPCs.
## What this PR adds
- src/components/PipelineStatusPanel.ts — new panel (id=pipeline-status).
* Bootstrap-hydrates from pipelinesGas + pipelinesOil for instant first
paint; falls through to listPipelines() RPC if bootstrap misses.
Background re-fetch runs on every render so a classifier-version bump
between bootstrap stamp and first view produces a visible update.
* Table rows sorted non-flowing-first (offline / reduced / disputed
before flowing) — what an atlas reader cares about.
* Click-to-expand drawer calls getPipelineDetail() lazily — operator
statements, sanction refs (with clickable source URLs), commercial
state, classifier version + confidence %, capacity + route metadata.
* publicBadge color-chip palette matches the methodology doc.
* Attribution footer with GEM (CC-BY 4.0) credit + classifier version.
- src/components/index.ts — barrel export.
- src/app/panel-layout.ts — import + createPanel('pipeline-status', …).
- src/config/panels.ts — ENERGY_PANELS adds 'pipeline-status' at priority 1.
## PENDING_CONSUMERS cleanup
tests/bootstrap.test.mjs — removes 'pipelinesGas' + 'pipelinesOil' from
the allowlist. The invariant "every bootstrap key has a getHydratedData
consumer" now enforces real wiring for these keys: the panel literally
calls getHydratedData('pipelinesGas') and getHydratedData('pipelinesOil').
Future regressions that remove the consumer will fail pre-push.
## Consumer contract verified
- 67 tests pass including bootstrap.test.mjs consumer coverage check.
- Typecheck clean.
- No DeckGL PathLayer in this commit — existing 'pipelines-layer' has a
separate data source, so modifying DeckGLMap.ts to overlay evidence-
derived badges on the map is a follow-up commit to avoid clobbering.
## Out of scope for Day 8 (next steps on same PR)
- DeckGL PathLayer integration (color pipelines on the main map by
publicBadge, click-to-open this drawer) — Day 8b commit.
- Storage facility registry + StorageFacilityMapPanel — Days 9-10.
* fix(energy): PipelineStatusPanel bootstrap path — client-side badge derivation
High finding from PR review. The Day-8 panel crashed on first paint
whenever bootstrap hydration succeeded, because:
- Bootstrap hydrates raw scripts/data/pipelines-{gas,oil}.json verbatim.
- That JSON does NOT include publicBadge — that field is only added by
the server handler's projectPipeline() in list-pipelines.ts.
- PipelineStatusPanel passed raw entries into badgeChip(), which called
badgeLabel(undefined).charAt(0) → TypeError.
The background RPC refresh that would have repaired the data never ran
because the panel threw before reaching it. So the exact bootstrap path
newly wired in commit
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|
Elie Habib
|
7cf37c604c |
feat(resilience): PR 3 — dead-signal cleanup (plan §3.5, §3.6) (#3297)
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 — retire fuelStockDays from core score permanently
First commit in PR 3 of the resilience repair plan. Retires
`fuelStockDays` from the core score with no replacement.
Why permanent, not replaced:
IEA emergency-stockholding rules are defined in days of NET IMPORTS
and do not bind net exporters by design. Norway/Canada/US measured
in days-of-imports are incomparable to Germany/Japan measured the
same way — the construct is fundamentally different across the two
country classes. No globally-comparable recovery-fuel signal can
be built from this source; the pre-repair probe showed 100% imputed
at 50 for every country in the April 2026 freeze.
scoreFuelStockDays:
- Rewritten to return coverage=0 + observedWeight=0 +
imputationClass='source-failure' for every country regardless
of seed content.
- Drops the dimension from the `recovery` domain's coverage-
weighted mean automatically; remaining recovery dimensions
pick up the share via re-normalisation in
`_shared.ts#coverageWeightedMean`.
- No explicit weight transfer needed — the coverage-weighted
blend handles redistribution.
Registry:
- recoveryFuelStockDays re-tagged from tier='enrichment' to
tier='experimental' so the Core coverage gate treats it as
out-of-score.
- Description updated to make the retirement explicit; entry
stays in the registry for structural continuity (the
dimension `fuelStockDays` remains in RESILIENCE_DIMENSION_ORDER
for the 19-dimension tests; removing the dimension entirely is
a PR 4 structural-audit concern).
Housekeeping:
- Removed `RESILIENCE_RECOVERY_FUEL_STOCKS_KEY` constant (no
longer read; noUnusedLocals would reject it).
- Removed `RecoveryFuelStocksCountry` interface for the same
reason. Comment at the removed declaration instructs future
maintainers not to re-add the type as a reservation; when a
new recovery-fuel concept lands, introduce a fresh interface.
Plan reference: §3.5 point 1 of
`docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-scorer-structural-bias-plan.md`.
51 resilience tests pass, typecheck + biome clean. The
`recovery` domain's published score will shift slightly for every
country because the 0.10 slot that fuelStockDays was imputing to
now redistributes; the compare-harness acceptance-gate rerun at
merge time will quantify the shift per plan §6 gates.
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 — retire BIS-backed currencyExternal; rebuild on IMF inflation + WB reserves
BIS REER/DSR feeds were load-bearing in currencyExternal (weights 0.35
fxVolatility + 0.35 fxDeviation, ~70% of dimension). They cover ~60
countries max — so every non-BIS country fell through to
curated_list_absent (coverage 0.3) or a thin IMF proxy (coverage 0.45).
Combined with reserveMarginPct already removed in PR 1, currencyExternal
was the clearest "construct absent for most of the world" carrier left
in the scorer.
Changes:
_dimension-scorers.ts
- scoreCurrencyExternal now reads IMF macro (inflationPct) + WB FX
reserves only. Coverage ladder:
inflation + reserves → 0.85 (observed primary + secondary)
inflation only → 0.55
reserves only → 0.40
neither → 0.30 (IMPUTE.bisEer retained for snapshot
continuity; semantics read as
"no IMF + no WB reserves" now)
- Removed dead symbols: RESILIENCE_BIS_EXCHANGE_KEY constant (reserved
via comment only, flagged by noUnusedLocals), stddev() helper,
getCountryBisExchangeRates() loader, BisExchangeRate interface,
dateToSortableNumber() — all were exclusive callers of the retired
BIS path.
_indicator-registry.ts
- New core entry inflationStability (weight 0.60, tier=core,
sourceKey=economic:imf:macro:v2).
- fxReservesAdequacy weight 0.15 → 0.40 (secondary reliability
anchor).
- fxVolatility + fxDeviation demoted tier=enrichment → tier=experimental
(BIS ~60-country coverage; off the core weight sum).
- Non-experimental weights now sum to 1.0 (0.60 + 0.40).
scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs
- EXTRACTION_RULES: added inflationStability →
imf-macro-country-field field=inflationPct so the registry-parity
test passes and the correlation harness sees the new construct.
tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts
- Dropped BIS-era wording ("non-BIS country") and test 266
(BIS-outage coverage 0.35 branch) which collapsed to the inflation-
only path post-retirement.
- Updated coverage assertions: inflation-only 0.45 → 0.55; inflation+
reserves 0.55 → 0.85.
tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts
- domainAverages.economic 68.33 → 66.33 (US currencyExternal score
shifts slightly under IMF+reserves vs old BIS composite).
- stressScore 67.85 → 67.21; stressFactor 0.3215 → 0.3279.
- overallScore 65.82 → 65.52.
- baselineScore unchanged (currencyExternal is stress-only).
All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean. No change to
seeders or Redis keys; this is a pure scorer + registry rebuild.
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.5 point 3 — re-goalpost externalDebtCoverage (0..5 → 0..2)
Plan §2.1 diagnosis table showed externalDebtCoverage saturating at
score=100 across all 9 probe countries — including stressed states.
Signal was collapsed. Root cause: (worst=5, best=0) gave every country
with ratio < 0.5 a score above 90, and mapped Greenspan-Guidotti's
reserve-adequacy threshold (ratio=1.0) to score 80 — well into "no
worry" territory instead of the "mild warning" it should be.
Re-anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti directly: ratio=1.0 now maps to score
50 (mild warning), ratio=2.0 to score 0 (acute rollover-shock exposure).
Ratios above 2.0 clamp to 0, consistent with "beyond this point the
country is already in crisis; exact value stops mattering."
Files changed:
- _indicator-registry.ts: recoveryDebtToReserves goalposts
{worst: 5, best: 0} → {worst: 2, best: 0}. Description updated to
cite Greenspan-Guidotti; inline comment documents anchor + rationale.
- _dimension-scorers.ts: scoreExternalDebtCoverage normalizer bound
changed from (0..5) to (0..2), with inline comment.
- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx: goalpost table row
5-0 → 2-0, description cites Greenspan-Guidotti.
- docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml:
* constructStatus: dead-signal → observed-mechanism (signal is now
discriminating).
* reviewNotes updated to describe the new anchor.
* mechanismTestRationale names the Greenspan-Guidotti rule.
- tests/resilience-dimension-monotonicity.test.mts: updated the
comment + picked values inside the (0..2) discriminating band (0.3
and 1.5). Old values (1 vs 4) had 4 clamping to 0.
- tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts: NO score threshold
relaxed >90 → >=85 (NO ratio=0.2 now scores 90, was 96).
- tests/resilience-scorers.test.mts: fixture drift:
* domainAverages.recovery 54.83 → 47.33 (US extDebt 70 → 25).
* baselineScore 63.63 → 60.12 (extDebt is baseline type).
* overallScore 65.52 → 63.27.
* stressScore / stressFactor unchanged (extDebt is baseline-only).
All 6324 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
* feat(resilience): PR 3 §3.6 — CI gate on indicator coverage and nominal weight
Plan §3.6 adds a new acceptance criterion (also §5 item 5):
> No indicator with observed coverage below 70% may exceed 5% nominal
> weight OR 5% effective influence in the post-change sensitivity run.
This commit enforces the NOMINAL-WEIGHT half as a unit test that runs
on every CI build. The EFFECTIVE-INFLUENCE half is produced by
scripts/validate-resilience-sensitivity.mjs as a committed artifact;
the gate file only asserts that script still exists so a refactor that
removes it breaks the build loudly.
Why the gate exists (plan §3.6):
"A dimension at 30% observed coverage carries the same effective
weight as one at 95%. This contradicts the OECD/JRC handbook on
uncertainty analysis."
Implementation:
tests/resilience-coverage-influence-gate.test.mts — three tests:
1. Nominal-weight gate: for every core indicator with coverage < 137
countries (70% of the ~195-country universe), computes its nominal
overall weight as
indicator.weight × (1/dimensions-in-domain) × domain-weight
and asserts it does not exceed 5%. Equal-share-per-dimension is
the *upper bound* on runtime weight (coverage-weighted mean gives
a lower share when a dimension drops out), so this is a strict
bound: if the nominal number passes, the runtime number also
passes for every country.
2. Effective-influence contract: asserts the sensitivity script
exists at its expected path. Removing it (intentionally or by
refactor) breaks the build.
3. Audit visibility: prints the top 10 core indicators by nominal
overall weight. No assertion beyond "ran" — the list lets
reviewers spot outliers that pass the gate but are near the cap.
Current state (observed from audit output):
recoveryReserveMonths: nominal=4.17% coverage=188
recoveryDebtToReserves: nominal=4.17% coverage=185
recoveryImportHhi: nominal=4.17% coverage=190
inflationStability: nominal=3.40% coverage=185
electricityConsumption: nominal=3.30% coverage=217
ucdpConflict: nominal=3.09% coverage=193
Every core indicator has coverage ≥ 180 (already enforced by the
pre-existing indicator-tiering test), so the nominal-weight gate has
no current violators — its purpose is catching future drift, not
flagging today's state.
All 6327 data-tier tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
* docs(resilience): PR 3 methodology doc — document §3.5 dead-signal retirements + §3.6 coverage gate
Methodology-doc update capturing the three §3.5 landings and the §3.6 CI
gate. Five edits:
1. **Known construct limitations section (#5 and #6):** strikethrough the
original "dead signals" and "no coverage-based weight cap" items,
annotate them with "Landed in PR 3 §3.5"/"Landed in PR 3 §3.6" +
specifics of what shipped.
2. **Currency & External H4 section:** completely rewritten. Old table
(fxVolatility / fxDeviation / fxReservesAdequacy on BIS primary) is
replaced by the two-indicator post-PR-3 table (inflationStability at
0.60 + fxReservesAdequacy at 0.40). Coverage ladder spelled out
(0.85 / 0.55 / 0.40 / 0.30). Legacy BIS indicators named as
experimental-tier drill-downs only.
3. **Fuel Stock Days H4 section:** H4 heading text kept verbatim so the
methodology-lint H4-to-dimension mapping does not break; body
rewritten to explain that the dimension is retired from core but the
seeder still runs for IEA-member drill-downs.
4. **External Debt Coverage table row:** goalpost 5-0 → 2-0, description
cites Greenspan-Guidotti reserve-adequacy rule.
5. **New v2.2 changelog entry** — PR 3 dead-signal cleanup, covering
§3.5 points 1/2/3 + §3.6 + acceptance gates + construct-audit
updates.
No scoring or code changes in this commit. Methodology-lint test passes
(H4 mapping intact). All 6327 data-tier tests pass.
* fix(resilience): PR 3 §3.6 gate — correct share-denominator for coverage-weighted aggregation
Reviewer catch (thanks). The previous gate computed each indicator's
nominal overall weight as
indicator.weight × (1 / N_total_dimensions_in_domain) × domain_weight
and claimed this was an upper bound ("actual runtime weight is ≤ this
when some dimensions drop out on coverage"). That is BACKWARDS for
this scorer.
The domain aggregation is coverage-weighted
(server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts coverageWeightedMean),
so when a dimension pins at coverage=0 it is EXCLUDED from the
denominator and the surviving dimensions' shares go UP, not down.
PR 3 commit 1 retires fuelStockDays by hard-coding its scorer to
coverage=0 for every country — so in the current live state the
recovery domain has 5 contributing dimensions (not 6), and each core
recovery indicator's nominal share is
1.0 × 1/5 × 0.25 = 5.00% (was mis-reported as 4.17%)
The old gate therefore under-estimated nominal influence and could
silently pass exactly the kind of low-coverage overweight regression
it is meant to block.
Fix:
- Added `coreBearingDimensions(domainId)` helper that counts only
dimensions that have ≥1 core indicator in the registry. A dimension
with only experimental/enrichment entries (post-retirement
fuelStockDays) has no core contribution → does not dilute shares.
- Updated `nominalOverallWeight` to divide by the core-bearing count,
not the raw dimension count.
- Rewrote the helper's doc comment to stop claiming this is a strict
upper bound — explicitly calls out the dynamic case (source failure
raising surviving dim shares further) as the sensitivity script's
responsibility.
- Added a new regression test: asserts (a) at least one recovery
dimension is all-non-core (fuelStockDays post-retirement),
(b) fuelStockDays has zero core indicators, and (c) recoveryDebt
ToReserves nominal = 0.05 exactly (not 0.0417) — any reversion
of the retirement or regression to N_total-denominator will fail
loudly.
Top-10 audit output now correctly shows:
recoveryReserveMonths: nominal=5% coverage=188
recoveryDebtToReserves: nominal=5% coverage=185
recoveryImportHhi: nominal=5% coverage=190
(was 4.17% each under the old math)
All 486 resilience tests pass. typecheck:api clean.
Note: the 5% figure is exactly AT the cap, not over it. "exceed" means
strictly > 5%, so it still passes. But now the reviewer / audit log
reflects reality.
* fix(resilience): PR 3 review — retired-dim confidence drag + false source-failure label
Addresses the Codex review P1 + P2 on PR #3297.
P1 — retired-dim drag on confidence averages
--------------------------------------------
scoreFuelStockDays returns coverage=0 by design (retired construct),
but computeLowConfidence, computeOverallCoverage, and the widget's
formatResilienceConfidence averaged across all 19 dimensions. That
dragged every country's reported averageCoverage down — US went from
0.8556 (active dims only) to 0.8105 (all dims) — enough drift to
misclassify edge countries as lowConfidence and to shift the ranking
widget's overallCoverage pill for every country.
Fix: introduce an authoritative RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS set in
_dimension-scorers.ts and filter it out of all three averages. The
filter is keyed on the retired-dim REGISTRY, not on coverage === 0,
because a non-retired dim can legitimately emit coverage=0 on a
genuinely sparse-data country via weightedBlend fall-through — those
entries MUST keep dragging confidence down (that is the sparse-data
signal lowConfidence exists to surface). Verified: sparse-country
release-gate test (marks sparse WHO/FAO countries as low confidence)
still passes with the registry-keyed filter; would have failed with
a naive coverage=0 filter.
Server-client parity: widget-utils cannot import server code, so
RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSION_IDS is a hand-mirrored constant, kept
in lockstep by tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts
(parses the widget file as text, same pattern as existing widget-util
tests that can't import the widget module directly).
P2 — false "Source down" label on retired dim
---------------------------------------------
scoreFuelStockDays hard-coded imputationClass: 'source-failure',
which the widget maps to "Source down: upstream seeder failed" with
a `!` icon for every country. That is semantically wrong for an
intentional retirement. Flipped to null so the widget's absent-path
renders a neutral cell without a false outage label. null is already
a legal value of ResilienceDimensionScore.imputationClass; no type
change needed.
Tests
-----
- tests/resilience-confidence-averaging.test.mts (new): pins the
registry-keyed filter semantic for computeOverallCoverage +
computeLowConfidence. Includes a negative-control test proving
non-retired coverage=0 dims still flip lowConfidence.
- tests/resilience-retired-dimensions-parity.test.mts (new):
lockstep gate between server and client retired-dim lists.
- Widget test adds a registry-keyed exclusion test with a non-retired
coverage=0 dim in the fixture to lock in the correct semantic.
- Existing tests asserting imputationClass: 'source-failure' for
fuelStockDays flipped to null.
All 494 resilience tests + full 6336/6336 data-tier suite pass.
Typecheck clean for both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
* docs(resilience): align methodology + registry metadata with shipped imputationClass=null
Follow-up to the previous PR 3 review commit that flipped
scoreFuelStockDays's imputationClass from 'source-failure' to null to
avoid a false "Source down" widget label on every country. The code
changed; the doc and registry metadata did not, leaving three sites
in the methodology mdx and two comment/description sites in the
registry still claiming imputationClass='source-failure'. Any future
reviewer (or tooling that treats the registry description as
authoritative) would be misled.
This commit rewrites those sites to describe the shipped behavior:
- imputationClass=null (not 'source-failure'), with the rationale
- exclusion from confidence/coverage averages via the
RESILIENCE_RETIRED_DIMENSIONS registry filter
- the distinction between structural retirement (filtered) and
runtime coverage=0 (kept so sparse-data countries still flag
lowConfidence)
Touched:
- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx (lines ~33, ~268, ~590)
- server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_indicator-registry.ts
(recoveryFuelStockDays comment block + description field)
No code-behavior change. Docs-only.
Tests: 157 targeted resilience tests pass (incl. methodology-lint +
widget + release-gate + confidence-averaging). Typecheck clean on
both tsconfig.json and tsconfig.api.json.
|
||
|
Elie Habib
|
c067a7dd63 |
fix(resilience): include hydroelectric in lowCarbonGenerationShare (PR #3289 follow-up) (#3293)
Greptile P1 review on the merged PR #3289: World Bank EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS explicitly excludes hydroelectric. The v2 lowCarbonGenerationShare composite was summing only nuclear + renew-ex-hydro, which would collapse to ~0 for hydro-dominant economies the moment the RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED flag flipped: Norway ~95% hydro → score near 0 on a 0.20-weight indicator Paraguay ~99% hydro → same Brazil ~65% hydro → same Canada ~60% hydro → same Directly contradicts the plan §3.3 intent of crediting "firm low-carbon generation" and would produce rankings that contradict the power-system security framing. PR #3289 merged before the review landed. This branch applies the fix against main. Fix: add EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS as a third series in the composite. seed-low-carbon-generation.mjs: - INDICATORS: ['EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS', 'EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS'] + 'EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS' - fetchLowCarbonGeneration(): sum three series, track latest year across all three, same cap-at-100 guard - File header comment names the three-series sum with the hydro- exclusion rationale + the country list that would break. _indicator-registry.ts lowCarbonGenerationShare.description: rewritten to name all three WB codes + explain the hydro exclusion. country-resilience-index.mdx: - Known-limitations item 3 names all three WB codes + country list - Energy domain v2 table row names all three WB codes - v2.1 changelog Indicators-added bullet names all three WB codes - v2.1 changelog New-seeders bullet names all three WB codes on seed-low-carbon-generation No scorer code change (composite lives in the seeder; scorer reads the pre-summed value from resilience:low-carbon-generation:v1). No weight change. Flag-off path remains byte-identical. 25 resilience tests pass, typecheck + typecheck:api clean. |
||
|
Elie Habib
|
a17a3383d9 |
feat(variant): Energy Atlas — Release 1 Day 1 (variant scaffolding) (#3291)
* feat(variant): add energy variant scaffolding for energy.worldmonitor.app Release 1 Day 1 of the Energy Atlas plan — introduces src/config/variants/energy.ts modeled on the commodity variant. No new panels or RPCs yet; the variant reuses existing energy-related panels (energy-complex, oil-inventories, hormuz, energy-crisis, fuel-prices, renewable-energy) + supply-chain/sanctions context. Map layers enable pipelines, waterways, AIS, commodityPorts, minerals, climate, outages, natural, weather. All geopolitical/military/tech/finance/happy variant layers explicitly disabled per variant isolation conventions. Next PRs on feat/energy-atlas-release-1 add: - Pipeline & storage registries (curated critical assets, ~75 gas / ~75 oil / ~125 storage) - Global fuel-shortage registry with automated evidence-threshold promotion - Pipeline/storage disruption event log - Country drill-down Energy section - Atlas landing composition at variant root * feat(variant): wire energy variant into runtime + atlas landing composition Day 2 of the Energy Atlas Release 1 plan. The Day-1 commit added a canonical variants/energy.ts but discovery during Day 2 showed the app's runtime variant resolution lives in src/config/panels.ts (ENERGY_PANELS/ENERGY_MAP_LAYERS/etc.), not in variants/*.ts (which are orphans). This commit does the real wiring. Changes: - src/config/panels.ts — ENERGY_PANELS, ENERGY_MAP_LAYERS, ENERGY_MOBILE_MAP_LAYERS; registered in ALL_PANELS, VARIANT_DEFAULTS, VARIANT_PANEL_OVERRIDES; wired into DEFAULT_MAP_LAYERS + MOBILE_DEFAULT_MAP_LAYERS ternaries. Panels at launch: map, live-news, insights, energy-complex, oil-inventories, hormuz, energy-crisis, fuel-prices, renewable-energy, commodities, energy (news), macro-signals, supply-chain, sanctions-pressure, gulf-economies, gcc-investments, climate, monitors, world-clock, latest-brief. - src/config/variant.ts — recognize 'energy' as allowed SITE_VARIANT; resolve energy.worldmonitor.app subdomain to 'energy'; honor localStorage override. - src/config/variant-meta.ts — SEO entry for energy.worldmonitor.app (title, description, keywords targeting 'oil pipeline tracker', 'gas storage map', 'fuel shortage tracker', 'chokepoint monitor', etc.). - src/app/panel-layout.ts — desktop variant switcher + mobile menu both list energy with ⚡ icon and t('header.energy') label. - src/App.ts + src/app/data-loader.ts — energy variant enables trade-policy and supply-chain data loads (chokepoint exposure is a core Atlas surface). - src/app/data-loader.ts — daily-brief newsCategories override for energy variant (energy, energy-markets, oil-gas-news, pipeline-news, lng-news). - src/locales/en.json — 'header.energy' translation key. - src/config/variants/energy.ts — add clarifying comment that real wiring lives in panels.ts (same orphan pattern as commodity.ts/finance.ts/etc.). Atlas landing composition: the variant now renders its energy panel set with energy-specific names (Energy Atlas Map, Energy Headlines, AI Energy Insights) when SITE_VARIANT === 'energy'. Pipeline and commodity-port map layers enabled so Week 2's pipeline registry + storage-facility registry drop in with layers already toggled on. Typecheck clean; 175 pre-push tests expected to remain green. Subsequent PRs on feat/energy-atlas-release-1: - Week 2: pipeline registry + storage facility registry (evidence-based) - Week 3: fuel-shortage classifier + disruption log + country drill-down - Week 4: automated revision log, SEO polish, launch * feat(energy): chokepoint strip at top of atlas (7 chokepoints) Day 3 of the Energy Atlas Release 1 plan. Adds ChokepointStripPanel — a compact horizontal strip of chip-style cards, one per chokepoint, showing name + status color + flow-as-%-of-baseline + active-warnings badge. Ordered by volume: Hormuz, Malacca, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Turkish Straits, Danish Straits, Panama. GEF covers 5 chokepoints (Hormuz, Malacca, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama). We cover 7 — adds Turkish Straits + Danish Straits. One of the surpass vectors enumerated in §5.7 of the plan doc. Data: reuses the existing fetchChokepointStatus() RPC backed by supply_chain:chokepoints:v4 (Portwatch DWT + AIS calibration). No new backend work; this is pure UI composition. Changes: - src/components/ChokepointStripPanel.ts — new Panel subclass with in-line CSS for the chip strip; falls back gracefully when a chokepoint is missing from the response or FlowEstimate is absent. - src/components/index.ts — barrel export. - src/app/panel-layout.ts — import + createPanel registration near existing energy panels. - src/config/panels.ts — ENERGY_PANELS adds 'chokepoint-strip' at priority 1 (renders near top of atlas). Also fixes two panel-ID mismatches caught while wiring: 'hormuz' → 'hormuz-tracker' and 'renewable-energy' → 'renewable' (matches HormuzPanel.ts and RenewableEnergyPanel registration). Typecheck clean. No new tests required — panel renders real data. * feat(energy): attribution footer utility + methodology page stubs Days 4 & 5 of the Energy Atlas Release 1 plan. ## Day 4 — Attribution footer (src/utils/attribution-footer.ts) A reusable string-builder that stamps every energy-atlas number with its provenance. Design intent per plan §5.6 (quantitative rigour moat): "every flow number carries {value, baseline, n_vessels, methodology, confidence}". Input schema: - sourceType: operator | regulator | ais | satellite | press | classifier | derived - method: short free-text ("AIS-DWT calibrated", "GIE AGSI+ daily") - sampleSize + sampleLabel: observation count and unit - updatedAt: ISO8601 / Date / number — rendered as "Xm/h/d ago" - confidence: 0..1 — bucketed to high/medium/low - classifierVersion: surfaced when evidence-derived badges ship in Week 2+ - creditName / creditUrl: CC-BY / dataset credit (OWID, GEM pattern) Every field also writes data-attributes (data-attr-source, data-attr-n, data-attr-confidence, data-attr-classifier) so MCP / scraper / analyst agents can extract the same provenance the reader sees. Agent-native by default. Applied to ChokepointStripPanel — the panel now shows its evidence footer ("AIS calibration · Portwatch DWT + AIS · N AIS disruption signals · updated Xh ago · EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints"). Future pipeline / storage / shortage panels drop the same helper in and hit the same rigour bar automatically. 7 unit tests (tests/attribution-footer.test.mts, node:test via tsx): minimal footer, method + sample size + credit, "X ago" formatting, confidence band mapping, full data-attribute emission, credit omission, HTML escaping. ## Day 5 — Public methodology page stubs (docs/methodology/) Four new MDX pages surfaced in docs/docs.json navigation under "Intelligence & Analysis": - chokepoints.mdx — 7 chokepoints, Portwatch+AIS calibration method, status badge derivation, known limits, revision-log link. - pipelines.mdx — curated critical-asset scope, GEM CC-BY attribution, evidence-schema (NOT conclusion labels), freshness SLA, corrections. - storage.mdx — curated ~125 facilities scope, "published not synthesized" fill % policy, country-aggregate fallback, attribution. - shortages.mdx — automated tiered evidence threshold, LLM second-pass gating, auto-decay cadence, evidence-source transparency, break-glass override policy (admin-only, off critical path). All four explicitly document WorldMonitor's automated-data-quality posture: no human review queues, quality via classifier rigour + evidence transparency + auto-decay + public revision log. Typecheck clean. attribution-footer.test.mts passes all 7 tests. * fix(variant): close three energy-variant isolation leaks from review Addresses three High findings from PR review: 1. Map-layer isolation (src/config/map-layer-definitions.ts) - Add 'energy' to the MapVariant type union. - Add energy entry to VARIANT_LAYER_ORDER with the curated energy subset (pipelines, waterways, commodityPorts, commodityHubs, ais, tradeRoutes, minerals, sanctions, fires, climate, weather, outages, natural, resilienceScore, dayNight). Without this, getLayersForVariant() and sanitizeLayersForVariant() (called from DeckGLMap and App.ts) fell back to VARIANT_LAYER_ORDER.full, letting the full geopolitical palette (military, nuclear, iranAttacks, conflicts, hotspots, bases, protests, flights, ucdpEvents, displacement, gpsJamming, satellites, ciiChoropleth, cables, datacenters, economic, cyberThreats, spaceports, irradiators, radiationWatch) into the desktop map tray and saved/URL layer sanitization — breaking the PR's stated no-geopolitical-bleed goal and violating multi-variant-site-data-isolation. 2. News feeds (src/config/feeds.ts + src/app/data-loader.ts) - Add ENERGY_FEEDS with three keys matching ENERGY_PANELS: live-news (broad energy headlines from OilPrice, Rigzone, Reuters/Bloomberg/FT energy), energy (OPEC + crude + NatGas/LNG + pipelines/chokepoints + crisis/shortages + refineries), supply-chain (tanker/shipping, chokepoints, energy sanctions, ports/terminals). - Add SITE_VARIANT === 'energy' branch to the FEEDS variant selector. - Correct newsCategories override in data-loader.ts — my earlier speculative values ['energy','energy-markets','oil-gas-news', 'pipeline-news','lng-news'] included keys that did not exist in any feed map. Replaced with real ENERGY_FEEDS keys ['live-news', 'energy', 'supply-chain']. Without this, FEEDS resolved to FULL_FEEDS for the energy variant — live-news + daily-brief both ingested the world/geopolitical feed set. 3. Insights / AI brief framing (src/components/InsightsPanel.ts) - Add SITE_VARIANT === 'energy' branch to geoContext: dedicated energy prompt focused on physical supply (pipelines, chokepoints, storage, days-of-cover, refineries, LNG, sanctions, shortages) with evidence-grounded attribution, no bare conclusions. - Add '⚡ ENERGY BRIEF' heading branch in renderWorldBrief(). Without this, the renamed 'AI Energy Insights' panel fell through to the empty default prompt and rendered 'WORLD BRIEF'. Typecheck clean. attribution-footer tests still pass (no coupling changed). * fix(variant): close energy-variant leak in SVG/mobile fallback map Fifth High finding from PR review: src/components/Map.ts createLayerToggles() (line 381-409) has no 'energy' branch in its variant ternary, so energy-variant users whose MapContainer routes to the SVG/mobile fallback (no WebGL, mobile with deviceMemory < 3, or DeckGL init throws) see the full geopolitical toggle set — iranAttacks, conflicts, hotspots, bases, nuclear, irradiators, military, protests, flights, gpsJamming, ciiChoropleth, cables, datacenters. Clicking any toggle flips the layer via toggleLayer() which is variant-blind (Map.ts:3383) — so users could enable military / nuclear layers on the energy variant despite the rest of the isolation work in panels.ts, map-layer-definitions.ts, feeds.ts, and InsightsPanel.ts. Fix: add energyLayers array with the SVG-capable subset of ENERGY_MAP_LAYERS — pipelines, waterways, ais, commodityHubs, minerals, sanctions, outages, natural, weather, fires, economic. Intentionally omitted: commodityPorts, climate, tradeRoutes, resilienceScore, dayNight — none of these have render handlers in Map.ts's SVG path, so including them would create toggles that do nothing. Extended the ternary with 'energy' → energyLayers between 'happy' and the 'full' fallback. Note (preexisting, NOT fixed here): the same ternary has no 'commodity' branch either, so commodity.worldmonitor.app also gets the full geopolitical toggle set on the SVG fallback. Out of scope for this PR; flagged for a separate fix. Defence-in-depth: sanitizeLayersForVariant() (now fixed in map-layer-definitions.ts) strips saved-URL layers to the energy subset before the SVG map sees them, so even if a user arrives with ?layers=military in the URL, it's gone by the time initialState reaches MapComponent. The toggle-list fix closes the UI-path leak; the sanitize fix closes the URL-path leak. Typecheck clean. |
||
|
Elie Habib
|
52659ce192 |
feat(resilience): PR 1 — energy construct repair (flag-gated) (#3289)
* docs(resilience): PR 1 foundation — Option B framing + v2 energy construct spec
First commit in PR 1 of the resilience repair plan. Zero scoring-behaviour
change; sets up the construct contract that the code changes will implement.
Declares the framing decision required by plan section 3.2 before any
scorer code lands: Option B (power-system security) is adopted. Electricity
grids are the dominant short-horizon shock-transmission channel, and the
choice lets the v2 energy indicator set share one denominator (percent of
electricity generation) instead of mixing primary-energy and power-system
measures in a composite.
Methodology doc changes:
- Energy Domain section now documents both the legacy indicator set
(still the default) and the v2 indicator set (flag-gated), under a
single #### Energy H4 heading so the methodology-doc linter still
asserts dimension-id parity with the registry.
- v2 indicators: importedFossilDependence (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS x
max(EG.IMP.CONS.ZS, 0)), lowCarbonGenerationShare (EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS +
EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), powerLossesPct (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), reserveMarginPct
(IEA), euGasStorageStress (renamed + scoped to EU), energyPriceStress
(retained at 0.15 weight).
- Retired under v2: electricityConsumption, gasShare, coalShare,
dependency (all into importedFossilDependence), renewShare.
- electricityAccess moves from energy to infrastructure under v2.
- Added a v2.1 changelog section documenting the flag-gated rollout,
acceptance gates (per plan section 6), and snapshot filenames for
the post-flag-flip captures.
- Known-limitations items 1-3 updated to note PR 1 lands the v2
construct behind RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED (default off).
Methodology-doc linter + mdx-lint + typecheck all clean. Indicator
registry, seeders, and scorer rewrite land in subsequent commits on
this same branch.
* feat(resilience): PR 1 — RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED flag + scoreEnergy v2 + registry entries
Second commit in PR 1 of the resilience repair plan. Lands the flag,
the v2 scorer code path, and the registry entries the methodology
doc referenced. Default is flag off; published rankings are unchanged
until the flag flips in a later commit (after seeders land and the
acceptance-gate rerun produces a fresh post-flip snapshot).
Changes:
- _shared.ts: isEnergyV2Enabled() function reader on the canonical
RESILIENCE_ENERGY_V2_ENABLED env var. Dynamic read (like
isPillarCombineEnabled) so tests can flip per-case.
- _dimension-scorers.ts:
- New Redis key constants for the three v2 seed keys plus the
reserved reserveMargin key (seeder deferred per plan §3.1
open-question).
- EU_GAS_STORAGE_COUNTRIES set (EU + EFTA + UK) for the renamed
euGasStorageStress signal per plan §3.5 point 2.
- isEnergyV2EnabledLocal() — private duplicate of the flag reader
to avoid a circular import (_shared.ts already imports from
this module). Same env-var contract.
- scoreEnergy split into scoreEnergyLegacy() + scoreEnergyV2().
Public scoreEnergy() branches on the flag. Legacy path is
byte-identical to the pre-commit behaviour.
- scoreEnergyV2() reads four new bulk payloads, composes
importedFossilDependence = fossilElectricityShare × max(netImports, 0)/100
per plan §3.2, collapses net exporters to 0, and gates
euGasStorageStress on EU membership so non-EU countries
re-normalise rather than getting penalised for a regional
signal.
- _indicator-registry.ts: four new entries under `dimension: 'energy'`
with `tier: 'experimental'` — importedFossilDependence (0.35),
lowCarbonGenerationShare (0.20), powerLossesPct (0.10),
reserveMarginPct (0.10). Experimental tier keeps them out of the
Core coverage gate until seed coverage is confirmed.
- compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs: new
'bulk-v1-country-value' shape family in the extraction dispatcher.
EXTRACTION_RULES now covers the four v2 registry indicators so
the per-indicator influence harness tracks them from day one.
When the seeders are absent, pairedSampleSize = 0 and Pearson = 0
— the harness output surfaces the "no influence yet" state rather
than silently dropping the indicators.
- tests/resilience-energy-v2.test.mts: 11 new tests pinning:
- flag-off = legacy behaviour preserved (v2 seed keys have no
effect when flag is off — catches accidental cross-path reads)
- flag-on = v2 composite behaves correctly:
- lower fossilElectricityShare raises score
- net exporter with 90% fossil > net importer with 90% fossil
(max(·, 0) collapse verified)
- higher lowCarbonGenerationShare raises score (nuclear credit)
- higher powerLossesPct lowers score
- euGasStorageStress is invariant for non-EU, responds for DE
- all v2 inputs absent = graceful degradation, coverage < 1.0
106 resilience tests pass (existing + 11 new). Typecheck clean. Biome
clean. No production behaviour change with flag off (default).
Next commits on this branch: three World Bank seeders for the v2 keys,
health.js + SEED_META registration (gated ON_DEMAND_KEYS until Railway
cron provisions), acceptance-gate rerun at flag-flip time.
* feat(resilience): PR 1 — three WB seeders + health registration for v2 energy construct
Third commit in PR 1. Lands the seed scripts for the three v2 energy
indicator source keys, registered in api/health.js with ON_DEMAND_KEYS
gating until Railway cron provisions.
New seeders (weekly cron cadence, 8d maxStaleMin = 2x interval):
- scripts/seed-low-carbon-generation.mjs
Pulls EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS + EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS from World Bank, sums per
country into `resilience:low-carbon-generation:v1`. Partial
coverage (one series missing) still emits a value using the
observed half — the scorer's 0-80 saturating goalpost tolerates
it and the underlying construct is "firm low-carbon share".
- scripts/seed-fossil-electricity-share.mjs
Pulls EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS into `resilience:fossil-electricity-share:v1`.
Feeds the importedFossilDependence composite at score time
(composite = fossilShare × max(netImports, 0) / 100 per plan §3.2).
- scripts/seed-power-reliability.mjs
Pulls EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS into `resilience:power-losses:v1`. Direct
grid-integrity signal replacing the retired electricityConsumption
wealth proxy.
All three follow the existing seed-recovery-*.mjs template:
- Shape: { countries: { [ISO2]: { value, year } }, seededAt }
- runSeed() from _seed-utils.mjs with schemaVersion=1, ttl=35d
- validateFn floor of 150 countries (WB coverage is 150-180 for
the three indicators; below 150 = transient fetch failure)
- ISO3 → ISO2 mapping via scripts/shared/iso3-to-iso2.json
No reserveMargin seeder is shipped in this commit per plan §3.1 open
question: IEA electricity-balance coverage is sparse outside OECD+G20,
and the indicator will likely ship as 'unmonitored' with weight 0.05
if it lands at all. The Redis key (`resilience:reserve-margin:v1`) is
reserved in _dimension-scorers.ts so the v2 scorer shape is stable.
api/health.js:
- SEED_DOMAINS: add `lowCarbonGeneration`, `fossilElectricityShare`,
`powerLosses` → their Redis keys.
- SEED_META: same three, pointing at `seed-meta:resilience:*` meta
keys with maxStaleMin=11520 (8d, per the worldmonitor
health-maxstalemin-write-cadence pattern: 2x weekly cron).
- ON_DEMAND_KEYS: three new entries gated as TRANSITIONAL until
Railway cron provisions and the first clean run completes. Remove
from this set after ~7 days of green production runs.
Typecheck clean; existing 106 resilience tests pass (seeders have no
in-repo callers yet, so nothing depends on them executing). Real-API
integration tests land when Railway cron is provisioned.
Next commit: Railway cron configuration + bundle-runner wiring.
* feat(resilience): PR 1 — bundle-runner + acceptance-gate verdict + flag-flip runbook
Final commit in the PR 1 tranche. Lands the three remaining pieces so
the flag-flip is fully operable once Railway cron provisions.
- scripts/seed-bundle-resilience-energy-v2.mjs
Railway cron bundle wrapping the three v2 energy seeders
(low-carbon-generation, fossil-electricity-share, power-losses).
Weekly cadence (7-day intervalMs); the underlying data is annual
at source so polling more frequently just hammers the World Bank
API. 5-minute per-script timeout. Mirrors the existing
seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs pattern.
- scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs: acceptanceGates
block. Programmatic evaluation of plan §6 gates using the inputs
the harness already computes:
gate-1-spearman Spearman vs baseline >= 0.85
gate-2-country-drift Max country drift vs baseline <= 15
gate-6-cohort-median Cohort median shift vs baseline <= 10
gate-7-matched-pair Every pair holds expected direction
gate-9-effective-influence >= 80% Core indicators measurable
gate-universe-integrity No cohort/pair endpoint missing from scorable
Thresholds are encoded in a const so they can't silently soften.
Output verdict is PASS / CONDITIONAL / BLOCK. Emitted in
summary.acceptanceVerdict for at-a-glance PR comment pasting, with
full per-gate detail in acceptanceGates.results.
- docs/methodology/energy-v2-flag-flip-runbook.md
Operator runbook for the flag flip. Pre-flip checklist (seeders
green, health endpoint green, ON_DEMAND_KEYS graduation, Spearman
verification), flip procedure (pre-flip snapshot, dry-run, cache
prefix bump, Vercel env flip, post-flip snapshot, methodology
doc reclassification), rollback procedure, and a reference table
for the three possible verdict states.
PR 1 is now code-complete pending:
1. Railway cron provisioning (ops, not code)
2. Flag flip + acceptance-gate rerun (follows runbook, not code)
3. Reserve-margin seeder (deferred per plan §3.1 open-question)
Zero scoring-behaviour change in this commit. 121 resilience tests
pass, typecheck clean.
* fix(resilience): PR 1 — drop unseeded reserveMargin from scorer + fix composite extractor
Addresses two P1 review findings on PR #3289.
Finding 1: scoreEnergyV2 read resilience:reserve-margin:v1 at weight
0.10 but no seeder ships in this PR (indicator deferred per plan
§3.1 open-question). On flag flip that slot would be permanently
null, silently renormalizing the remaining 90% of weight and
producing a construct different from what the methodology doc
describes. Fix: remove reserve-margin from the v2 reader +
blend entirely. Redistribute its 0.10 weight to powerLossesPct
(now 0.20); both are grid-integrity signals per plan §3.1, and
the original plan split electricityConsumption's 0.30 weight
across powerLossesPct + reserveMarginPct + importedFossilDependence
— without reserveMarginPct, powerLossesPct carries the shared
grid-integrity load until the IEA seeder ships.
v2 weights now: 0.35 + 0.20 + 0.20 + 0.10 + 0.15 = 1.00
(importedFossilDependence + lowCarbonGenerationShare +
powerLossesPct + euGasStorageStress + energyPriceStress)
Reserve-margin Redis key constant stays reserved so the v2
scorer shape is stable when a future commit lands the seeder;
split 0.10 back out of powerLossesPct at that point.
Methodology doc, _shared.ts flag comment, and v2 test suite all
updated to the 5-indicator shape. New regression test asserts
that changing reserve-margin Redis content has zero effect on
the v2 score — guards against a future commit accidentally
wiring the reader back in without its seeder.
Finding 2: scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs
measured importedFossilDependence by reading fossilElectricityShare
alone. The scorer defines it as fossilShare × max(netImports, 0)
/ 100, so the extractor zeroed out net exporters and
under-reported net importers — making gate-9 effective-influence
wrong for the centrepiece construct change of PR 1.
Fix: new 'imported-fossil-dependence-composite' extractor type
in applyExtractionRule that recomputes the same composite from
both inputs (fossilShare bulk payload + staticRecord.iea.
energyImportDependency.value). Stays in lockstep with the
scorer — drift between the two would break gate-9's
interpretation.
New unit tests pin:
- net importer: 80% × max(60, 0) / 100 = 48 ✓
- net exporter: 80% × max(-40, 0) / 100 = 0 ✓
- missing either input → null
64 resilience tests pass; typecheck clean. Flag-off path is
still byte-identical to pre-PR behaviour.
* docs(resilience): PR 1 — align methodology doc with actual shipped indicators and seeders
Addresses P1 review on docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx
lines 29 and 574-575. The doc still described reserveMarginPct as a
shipped v2 indicator and listed seed-net-energy-imports.mjs in the
new-seeders list, neither of which the branch actually ships.
Doc changes to match the code in this branch:
Known-limitations item 1: restated to describe the actual v2
replacement footprint — powerLossesPct at 0.20 (temporarily
absorbing reserveMarginPct's 0.10) plus accessToElectricityPct
moved to infrastructure. reserveMarginPct is named as a deferred
companion with the split-out instructions for when its seeder
lands.
v2.1 changelog (Indicators added): split into "live in PR 1" and
"deferred in PR 1" so the reader can distinguish which entries
match real code. importedFossilDependence's composite formula
now written out and the net-imports source attributed to the
existing resilience:static.iea path (not a new seeder).
v2.1 changelog (New seeders): lists the three actual files that
ship in this branch (seed-low-carbon-generation, seed-fossil-
electricity-share, seed-power-reliability) and explicitly notes
seed-net-energy-imports.mjs is NOT a new seeder — the
EG.IMP.CONS.ZS series is already fetched by seed-resilience-
static.mjs. Adds the bundle-runner reference.
Methodology-doc linter + mdx-lint both pass (125/125). Typecheck
clean. Doc is now the source of truth for what PR 1 actually ships.
* fix(resilience): PR 1 — sync powerLossesPct registry weight with scorer (0.10 → 0.20)
Reviewer-caught mismatch between INDICATOR_REGISTRY and scoreEnergyV2.
The previous commit redistributed the deferred reserveMarginPct's 0.10
weight into powerLossesPct in the SCORER but left the REGISTRY entry
unchanged at 0.10. Two downstream effects:
1. scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs copies
`spec.weight` into `nominalWeight` for gate-9 reporting, so
powerLossesPct's nominal influence would be under-reported by
half in every post-flip acceptance run — exactly the harness PR 1
relies on for merge evidence.
2. Methodology doc vs registry vs scorer drift is the pattern the
methodology-doc linter is supposed to catch; it passes here
because the linter only checks dimension-id parity, not weights.
Registry is now the only remaining source of truth to keep in
lockstep with the scorer.
Change:
- `_indicator-registry.ts` powerLossesPct.weight: 0.1 → 0.2
- Inline comment names the deferral and instructs: "when the IEA
electricity-balance seeder lands, split 0.10 back out and restore
reserveMarginPct at 0.10. Keep this field in lockstep with
scoreEnergyV2 ... because the PR 0 compare harness copies
spec.weight into nominalWeight for gate-9 reporting."
Experimental weights per dimension invariant still holds (0.35 + 0.20
+ 0.20 = 0.75 for energy, well under the 1.0 ceiling). 64 resilience
tests pass, typecheck clean.
|
||
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Elie Habib
|
da0f26a3cf |
feat(resilience): PR 0 diagnostic freeze + fairness-audit harness (no scoring changes) (#3284)
* feat(resilience): PR 0 diagnostic freeze + fairness-audit harness
Lands the before-state and measurement apparatus every subsequent
resilience-scorer PR validates against. Zero scoring changes. Per the
v3 plan at docs/plans/2026-04-22-001-fix-resilience-scorer-structural-
bias-plan.md this is tranche 0 of five.
What lands:
- Construct contract published in the methodology doc: absolute
resilience not development-adjusted, mechanism test for every
indicator, peer-relative views published separately from the core.
- Known construct limitations section: six construct errors scheduled
for PR 1-3 repair with explicit mapping to plan tranches.
- Indicator-source manifest at docs/methodology/indicator-sources.yaml
with source, seriesId, seriesUrl, coveragePct, lastObservedYear,
license, mechanismTestRationale, and a constructStatus classification.
- Pre-repair ranking snapshot at
docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-live-pre-repair-2026-04-22.json
(217 items + 5 greyedOut, captured 2026-04-22 08:38 UTC at commit
|
||
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Elie Habib
|
fbaf07e106 |
feat(resilience): flag-gated pillar-combined score activation (default off) (#3267)
Wires the non-compensatory 3-pillar combined overall_score behind a RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED env flag. Default is false so this PR ships zero behavior change in production. When flipped true the top-level overall_score switches from the 6-domain weighted aggregate to penalizedPillarScore(pillars) with alpha 0.5 and pillar weights 0.40 / 0.35 / 0.25. Evidence from docs/snapshots/resilience-pillar-sensitivity-2026-04-21: - Spearman rank correlation current vs proposed 0.9935 - Mean score delta -13.44 points (every country drops, penalty is always at most 1) - Max top-50 rank swing 6 positions (Russia) - No ceiling or floor effects under plus/minus 20pct perturbation - Release gate PASS 0/19 Code change in server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts: - New isPillarCombineEnabled() reads env dynamically so tests can flip state without reloading the module - overallScore branches on (isPillarCombineEnabled() AND RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED AND pillars.length > 0); otherwise falls through to the 6-domain aggregate (unchanged default path) - RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX bumped v9 to v10 - RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY bumped v9 to v10 Cache invalidation: the version bump forces both per-country score cache and ranking cache to recompute from the current code path on first read after a flag flip. Without the bump, 6-domain values cached under the flag-off path would continue to serve for up to 6-12 hours after the flip, producing a ragged mix of formulas. Ripple of v9 to v10: - api/health.js registry entry - scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs (both keys) - scripts/validate-resilience-correlation.mjs, scripts/backtest-resilience-outcomes.mjs, scripts/validate-resilience-backtest.mjs, scripts/benchmark-resilience-external.mjs - tests/resilience-ranking.test.mts 24 fixture usages - tests/resilience-handlers.test.mts - tests/resilience-scores-seed.test.mjs explicit pin - tests/resilience-pillar-aggregation.test.mts explicit pin - docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx New tests/resilience-pillar-combine-activation.test.mts: 7 assertions exercising the flag-on path against the release fixtures with re-anchored bands (NO at least 60, YE/SO at most 40, NO greater than US preserved, elite greater than fragile). Regression guard verifies flipping the flag back off restores the 6-domain aggregate. tests/resilience-ranking-snapshot.test.mts: band thresholds now resolve from a METHODOLOGY_BANDS table keyed on snapshot.methodologyFormula. Backward compatible (missing formula defaults to domain-weighted-6d bands). Snapshots: - docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-2026-04-21.json tagged methodologyFormula domain-weighted-6d - docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-pillar-combined-projected-2026-04-21.json new: top/bottom/major-economies tables projected from the 52-country sensitivity sample. Explicitly tagged projected (NOT a full-universe live capture). When the flag is flipped in production, run scripts/freeze-resilience-ranking.mjs to capture the authoritative full-universe snapshot. Methodology doc: Pillar-combined score activation section rewritten to describe the flag-gated mechanism (activation is an env-var flip, no code deploy) and the rollback path. Verification: npm run typecheck:all clean, 397/397 resilience tests pass (up from 390, +7 activation tests). Activation plan: 1. Merge this PR with flag default false (zero behavior change) 2. Set RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED=true in Vercel and Railway env 3. Redeploy or wait for next cold start; v9 to v10 bump forces every country to be rescored on first read 4. Run scripts/freeze-resilience-ranking.mjs against the flag-on deployment and commit the resulting snapshot 5. Ship a v2.0 methodology-change note explaining the re-anchored scale so analysts understand the universal ~13 point score drop is a scale rebase, not a country-level regression Rollback: set RESILIENCE_PILLAR_COMBINE_ENABLED=false, flush resilience:score:v10:* and resilience:ranking:v10 keys (or wait for TTLs). The 6-domain formula stays alongside the pillar combine in _shared.ts and needs no code change to come back. |
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Elie Habib
|
502bd4472c |
docs(resilience): sync methodology/proto/widget to 6-domain + 3-pillar reality (#3264)
Brings every user-facing surface into alignment with the live resilience scorer. Zero behavior change: overall_score is still the 6-domain weighted aggregate, schemaVersion is still 2.0 default, and every existing test continues to pass. Surfaces touched: - proto + OpenAPI: rewrote the ResiliencePillar + schema_version descriptions. 2.0 is correctly documented as default; shaped-but-empty language removed. - Widget: added missing recovery: 'Recovery' label (was rendering literal lowercase recovery before), retitled footer data-version chip from Data to Seed date so it is clear the value reflects the static seed bundle not every live input, rewrote help tooltip for 6 domains and 3 pillars and called out the 0.25 recovery weight. - Methodology doc: domains-and-weights table now carries all 6 rows with actual code weights (0.17/0.15/0.11/0.19/0.13/0.25), Recovery section header weight corrected from 1.0 to 0.25, new Pillar-combined score activation (pending) section with the measured Spearman 0.9935, top-5 movers, and the activation checklist. - documentation.mdx + features.mdx: product blurbs updated from 5 domains and 13 dimensions to 6 domains and 19 dimensions grouped into 3 pillars. - Tests: recovery-label regression pin, Seed date label pin, clarified pillar-schema degenerate-input semantics. New scaffolding for defensibility: - docs/snapshots/resilience-ranking-2026-04-21.json frozen published tables artifact with methodology metadata and commit SHA. - docs/snapshots/resilience-pillar-sensitivity-2026-04-21.json live Redis capture (52-country sample) combining sensitivity stability with the current-vs-proposed Spearman comparison. - scripts/freeze-resilience-ranking.mjs refresh script. - scripts/compare-resilience-current-vs-proposed.mjs comparison script. - tests/resilience-ranking-snapshot.test.mts 13 assertions auto discovered from any resilience-ranking-YYYY-MM-DD.json in snapshots. Verification: npm run typecheck:all clean, 390/390 resilience tests pass. Follow-up: pillar-combined score activation. The sensitivity artifact shows rank-preservation Spearman 0.9935 and no ceiling effects, which clears the methodological bar. Blocker is messaging because every country drops ~13 points under the penalty, so activation PR ships with re-anchored release-gate bands, refreshed frozen ranking, and a v2.0 methodology note. |
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Elie Habib
|
4c9888ac79 |
docs(mintlify): panel reference pages (PR 2) (#3213)
* docs(mintlify): add user-facing panel reference pages (PR 2)
Six new end-user pages under docs/panels/ for the shipped panels that
had no user-facing documentation in the published docs, per the plan
docs/plans/2026-04-19-001-feat-docs-user-facing-ia-refresh-plan.md.
All claims are grounded in the live component source + SEED_META +
handler dirs — no invented fields, counts, or refresh windows.
- panels/latest-brief.mdx — daily AI brief panel (ready/composing/
locked states). Hard-gated PRO (`premium: 'locked'`).
- panels/forecast.mdx — AI Forecasts panel (internal id `forecast`,
label "AI Forecasts"). Domain + macro-region filter pills; 10%
probability floor. Free on web, locked on desktop.
- panels/consumer-prices.mdx — 5-tab retail-price surface (Overview
/ Categories / Movers / Spread / Health) with market, basket, and
7/30/90-day controls. Free.
- panels/disease-outbreaks.mdx — WHO / ProMED / national health
ministries outbreak alerts with alert/warning/watch pills. Free.
- panels/radiation-watch.mdx — EPA RadNet + Safecast observations
with anomaly scoring and source-confidence synthesis. Free.
- panels/thermal-escalation.mdx — FIRMS/VIIRS thermal clusters with
persistence and conflict-adjacency flags. Free.
Also:
- docs/docs.json — new Panels nav group (Latest Brief, AI Forecasts,
Consumer Prices, Disease Outbreaks, Radiation Watch, Thermal
Escalation).
- docs/features.mdx — cross-link every panel name in the Cmd+K
inventory to its new page (and link Country Instability + Country
Resilience from the same list).
- docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx — short "In the
dashboard" bridge section naming the three CRI surfaces
(Resilience widget, Country Deep-Dive, map choropleth) so the
methodology page doubles as the user-facing panel reference for
CRI. No separate docs/panels/country-resilience.mdx — keeps the
methodology page as the single source of truth.
* docs(panels): fix Latest Brief polling description
Reviewer catch: the panel does schedule a 60-second re-poll while
in the composing state. `COMPOSING_POLL_MS = 60_000` at
src/components/LatestBriefPanel.ts:78, and `scheduleComposingPoll()`
is called from `renderComposing()` at :366. The poll auto-promotes
the panel to ready without a manual refresh and is cleared when
the panel leaves composing. My earlier 'no polling timer' line was
right for the ready state but wrong as a blanket claim.
* docs(panels): fix variant-availability claims across all 6 panel pages
Reviewer catch on consumer-prices surfaced the same class of error
on 4 other panel pages: I described variant availability with loose
phrasing ('most variants', 'where X context is relevant', 'tech/
finance/happy opt-in') that didn't match the actual per-variant
panel registries in src/config/panels.ts.
Verified matrix against each *_PANELS block directly:
Panel | FULL | TECH | FINANCE | HAPPY | COMMODITY
consumer-prices | opt | - | def | - | def
latest-brief | def | def | def | - | def (all PRO-locked)
disease-outbreaks | def | - | - | - | -
radiation-watch | def | - | - | - | -
thermal-escalation | def | - | - | - | -
forecast | def | - | - | - | - (PRO-locked on desktop)
All 6 pages now name the exact variant blocks in src/config/panels.ts
that register them, so the claim is re-verifiable by grep rather than
drifting with future panel-registry changes.
* docs(panels): fix 5 reviewer findings — no invented controls/sources/keys
All fixes cross-checked against source.
- consumer-prices: no basket selector UI exists. The panel has a
market bar, a range bar, and tab/category affordances; basket is
derived from market selection (essentials-<code>, or DEFAULT_BASKET
for the 'all' aggregate view). Per
src/components/ConsumerPricesPanel.ts:120-123 and :216-229.
- disease-outbreaks: 'Row click opens advisory' was wrong. The only
interactive elements in-row are the source-name <a> link
(sanitised URL, target=_blank); clicking the row itself is a no-op
(the only content-level listener is for [data-filter] pills and
the search input). Per DiseaseOutbreaksPanel.ts:35-49,115-117.
- disease-outbreaks: upstream list was wrong. Actual seeder uses
WHO DON (JSON API), CDC HAN (RSS), Outbreak News Today
(aggregator), and ThinkGlobalHealth disease tracker
(ProMED-sourced, 90d lookback). Noted the in-panel tooltip's
shorter 'WHO, ProMED, health ministries' summary and gave the full
upstream list with the 72h Redis TTL. Per seed-disease-outbreaks
.mjs:31-38.
- radiation-watch: summary bar renders 6 cards, not 7 — Anomalies,
Elevated, Confirmed, Low Confidence, Conflicts, Spikes. The
CPM-derived indicator is a per-row badge (radiation-flag-converted
at :67), not a summary card. Moved the CPM reference to the
per-row badges list. Per RadiationWatchPanel.ts:85-112.
- latest-brief: Redis key shape corrected. The composer writes the
envelope to brief:{userId}:{issueSlot} (where issueSlot comes from
issueSlotInTz, not a plain date) and atomically writes a latest
pointer at brief:latest:{userId} → {issueSlot}. Readers resolve
via the pointer. 7-day TTL on both. Per
seed-digest-notifications.mjs:1103-1115 and
api/latest-brief.ts:80-89.
* docs(panels): Tier 1 — PRO/LLM panel reference pages (9)
Adds user-facing panel pages for the 9 PRO/LLM-backed surfaces flagged
in the extended audit. All claims grounded in component source +
src/config/panels.ts entries (with line cites).
- panels/chat-analyst.mdx — WM Analyst (conversational AI, 5 quick
actions, 4 domain scopes, POSTs /api/chat-analyst via premiumFetch).
- panels/market-implications.mdx — AI Market Implications trade signals
(LONG/SHORT/HEDGE × HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW, transmission paths, 120min
maxStaleMin, degrade-to-warn). Carries the repo's disclaimer verbatim.
- panels/deduction.mdx — Deduct Situation (opt-in PRO; 5s cooldown;
composes buildNewsContext + active framework).
- panels/daily-market-brief.mdx — Daily Market Brief (stanced items,
framework selector, live vs cached source badge).
- panels/regional-intelligence.mdx — Regional Intelligence Board
(7 BOARD_REGIONS, 6 structured blocks + narrative sections,
request-sequence arbitrator, opt-in PRO).
- panels/strategic-posture.mdx — AI Strategic Posture (cached posture
+ live military vessels → recalcPostureWithVessels; free on web,
enhanced on desktop).
- panels/stock-analysis.mdx — Premium Stock Analysis (per-ticker
deep dive: signal, targets, consensus, upgrades, insiders, sparkline).
- panels/stock-backtest.mdx — Premium Backtesting (longitudinal view;
live vs cached data badge).
- panels/wsb-ticker-scanner.mdx — WSB Ticker Scanner (retail sentiment
+ velocity score with 4-tier color bucketing).
All 9 are PRO (8 via apiKeyPanels allowlist at src/config/panels.ts:973,
strategic-posture is free-on-web/enhanced-on-desktop). Variant matrices
name the exact *_PANELS block registering each panel.
* docs(panels): Tier 2 — flagship free data panels (7)
Adds reference pages for 7 flagship free panels. Every claim grounded
in the panel component + src/config/panels.ts per-variant registration.
- panels/airline-intel.mdx — 6-tab aviation surface (ops/flights/
airlines/tracking/news/prices), 8 aviation RPCs, user watchlist.
- panels/tech-readiness.mdx — ranked country tech-readiness index with
6-hour in-panel refresh interval.
- panels/trade-policy.mdx — 6-tab trade-policy surface (restrictions/
tariffs/flows/barriers/revenue/comtrade).
- panels/supply-chain.mdx — composite stress + carriers + minerals +
Scenario Engine trigger surface (free panel, PRO scenario activation).
- panels/sanctions-pressure.mdx — OFAC SDN + Consolidated list
pressure rollup with new/vessels/aircraft summary cards and top-8
country rows.
- panels/hormuz-tracker.mdx — Hormuz chokepoint drill-down; status
indicator + per-series bar charts; references Scenario Engine's
hormuz-tanker-blockade template.
- panels/energy-crisis.mdx — IEA 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response
Tracker; category/sector/status filters.
All 7 are free. Variant matrices name exact *_PANELS blocks
registering each panel.
* docs(panels): Tier 3 — compact panels (5)
Adds reference pages for 5 compact user-facing panels.
- panels/world-clock.mdx — 22 global market-centre clocks with
exchange labels + open/closed indicators (client-side only).
- panels/monitors.mdx — personal keyword alerts, localStorage-persisted;
links to Features → Custom Monitors for longer explanation.
- panels/oref-sirens.mdx — OREF civil-defence siren feed; active +
24h wave history; free on web, PRO-locked on desktop (_desktop &&
premium: 'locked' pattern).
- panels/telegram-intel.mdx — topic-tabbed Telegram channel mirror
via relay; free on web, PRO-locked on desktop.
- panels/fsi.mdx — US KCFSI + EU FSI stress composites with
four-level colour buckets (Low/Moderate/Elevated/High).
All 5 grounded in component source + variant registrations.
oref-sirens and telegram-intel correctly describe the _desktop &&
locking pattern rather than the misleading 'PRO' shorthand used
earlier for other desktop-locked panels.
* docs(panels): Tier 4 + 5 catalogue pages, nav re-grouping, features cross-links
Closes out the comprehensive panel-reference expansion. Two catalogue
pages cover the remaining ~60 panels collectively so they're all
searchable and findable without dedicated pages per feed/tile.
- panels/news-feeds.mdx — catalogue covering all content-stream panels:
regional news (africa/asia/europe/latam/us/middleeast/politics),
topical news (climate/crypto/economic/markets/mining/commodity/
commodities), tech/startup streams (startups/unicorns/accelerators/
fintech/ipo/layoffs/producthunt/regionalStartups/thinktanks/vcblogs/
defense-patents/ai-regulation/tech-hubs/ai/cloud/hardware/dev/
security/github), finance streams (bonds/centralbanks/derivatives/
forex/institutional/policy/fin-regulation/commodity-regulation/
analysis), happy variant streams (species/breakthroughs/progress/
spotlight/giving/digest/events/funding/counters/gov/renewable).
- panels/indicators-and-signals.mdx — catalogue covering compact
market-indicator tiles, correlation panels, and misc signal surfaces.
Grouped by function: sentiment, macro, calendars, market-structure,
commodity, crypto, regional economy, correlation panels, misc signals.
docs/docs.json — split the Panels group into three for navigability:
- Panels — AI & PRO (11 pages)
- Panels — Data & Tracking (16 pages)
- Panels — Catalogues (2 pages)
docs/features.mdx — Cmd+K inventory rewritten as per-family sub-lists
with links to every panel page (or catalogue page for the ones
that live in a catalogue). Replaces the prior run-on paragraph.
Every catalogue panel is also registered in at least one *_PANELS
block in src/config/panels.ts — the catalogue pages note this and
point readers to the config file for variant-availability details.
* docs(panels): fix airline-intel + world-clock source-of-truth errors
- airline-intel: refresh behavior section was wrong on two counts.
(1) The panel DOES have a polling timer: a 5-minute setInterval
in the constructor calling refresh() (which reloads ops + active
tab). (2) The 'prices' tab does NOT re-fetch on tab switch —
it's explicitly excluded from both tab-switch and auto-refresh
paths, loading only on explicit search-button click. Three
distinct refresh paths now documented with source line hints.
Per src/components/AirlineIntelPanel.ts ~:173 (setInterval),
:287 (prices tab-switch guard), :291 (refresh() prices skip).
- world-clock: the WORLD_CITIES list has 30 entries, not '~22'.
Replaced the approximate count with the exact number and a
:14-43 line-range cite so it's re-verifiable.
|
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Elie Habib
|
5939b78f4d |
chore(resilience): Phase 2 scorecard + v2.0 changelog + schemaVersion flag flip (10/10) (#2993)
* chore(resilience): Phase 2 scorecard + v2.0 changelog + schemaVersion flag flip * fix(resilience): A9 checkbox + cache version reference (#2993 review) |
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Elie Habib
|
676331607a |
feat(resilience): three-pillar aggregation with penalized weighted mean (T2.3) (#2990)
* feat(resilience): three-pillar aggregation with penalized weighted mean (Phase 2 T2.3) Wire real three-pillar scoring: structural-readiness (0.40), live-shock-exposure (0.35), recovery-capacity (0.25). Add penalizedPillarScore formula with alpha=0.50 penalty factor for backtest tuning. Set recovery domain weight to 0.25 and redistribute existing domain weights proportionally to sum to 1.0. Bump cache keys v8 to v9. The penalized formula is exported and tested but overallScore stays as the v1 domain-weighted sum until the flag flips in PR 10. * fix(resilience): update test description v8 to v9 (#2990 review) Test descriptions said "(v8)" but assertions check v9 cache keys. |
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Elie Habib
|
17e34dfca7 |
feat(resilience): recovery capacity pillar — 6 new dimensions + 5 seeders (Phase 2 T2.2b) (#2987)
* feat(resilience): recovery capacity pillar — 6 new dimensions + 5 seeders (Phase 2 T2.2b) Add the recovery-capacity pillar with 6 new dimensions: - fiscalSpace: IMF GGR_G01_GDP_PT + GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT + GGXWDG_NGDP_PT - reserveAdequacy: World Bank FI.RES.TOTL.MO - externalDebtCoverage: WB DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD ratio - importConcentration: UN Comtrade HHI (stub seeder) - stateContinuity: derived from WGI + UCDP + displacement (no new fetch) - fuelStockDays: IEA/EIA (stub seeder, Enrichment tier) Each dimension has a scorer in _dimension-scorers.ts, registry entries in _indicator-registry.ts, methodology doc subsections, and fixture data. Seeders: fiscal-space (real, IMF WEO), reserve-adequacy (real, WB API), external-debt (real, WB API), import-hhi (stub), fuel-stocks (stub). Recovery domain weight is 0 until PR 4 (T2.3) ships the penalized weighted mean across pillars. The domain appears in responses structurally but does not affect the overall score. Bootstrap: STANDALONE_KEYS + SEED_META + EMPTY_DATA_OK_KEYS + ON_DEMAND_KEYS all updated in api/health.js. Source-failure mapping updated for stateContinuity (WGI adapter). Widget labels and LOCKED_PREVIEW updated. All 282 resilience tests pass, typecheck clean, methodology lint clean. * fix(resilience): ISO3→ISO2 normalization in WB recovery seeders (#2987 P1) Both seed-recovery-reserve-adequacy.mjs and seed-recovery-external-debt.mjs used countryiso3code from the World Bank API response then immediately rejected codes where length !== 2. WB returns ISO3 codes (USA, DEU, etc.), so all real rows were silently dropped and the feed was always empty. Fix: import scripts/shared/iso3-to-iso2.json and normalize before the length check. Also removed from EMPTY_DATA_OK_KEYS in health.js since empty results now indicate a real failure, not a structural absence. * fix(resilience): remove unused import + no-op overrides (#2987 review) * fix(test): update release-gate to expect 6 domains after recovery pillar |
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Elie Habib
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fa3cca8c7e |
feat(resilience): cross-index benchmark — INFORM/ND-GAIN/WRI/FSI (Phase 2 T2.4) (#2985)
* feat(resilience): cross-index benchmark — INFORM/ND-GAIN/WRI/FSI (Phase 2 T2.4) * fix(resilience): INFORM scoreCol guard + Redis check + cleanup (#2985 review) |
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Elie Habib
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49a2c54819 |
chore(resilience): T1.9 cache-key health sync + Phase 1 scorecard close-out (#2965)
* chore(resilience): T1.9 cache-key health sync + Phase 1 scorecard close-out
Final PR of the Phase 1 reference-grade upgrade. Closes out the Phase 1
acceptance gate with two deliverables:
1. T1.9 cache-key / health-registry sync regression test
New tests/resilience-cache-keys-health-sync.test.mts asserts that
the RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY string from _shared.ts literally
appears in api/health.js, and that the score/history prefixes match
the expected resilience:<kind>:v<n>: shape. This guards against
future silent version drift where a cache-key bump in _shared.ts
could leave the health registry watching the old key indefinitely.
No cache keys were bumped in Phase 1 because every schema addition
(imputationClass, freshness) was additive with default fallbacks on
the existing resilience:score:v7 / ranking:v8 / history:v4 keys.
2. Methodology changelog v1.1 + Phase 1 self-assessment scorecard
docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx:
- v1.0 entry trimmed to only reference the actual v1.0 baseline PRs
(#2821, #2847, #2858). Moved from "Current published version" to
"Baseline".
- New v1.1 entry inserted between v1.0 and v2.0, marked as "Current
published version". Lists all Phase 1 tasks T1.1-T1.9 with the
specific PRs that shipped each slice.
- New "Scorecard (v1.1 self-assessment)" section at the end of the
changelog with ratings on six standard composite-indicator review
axes: Methodology 7.5, Explainability 7.5, Reproducibility 8.0,
Source quality 7.0, Timeliness 6.5, Sensitivity 7.0. Every axis has
a named rationale and a named gap tied to a Phase 2 or Phase 3
task. Both Phase 1 required thresholds (Methodology >=7.5,
Explainability >=7.5) are met.
docs/internal/country-resilience-upgrade-plan.md:
- Phase 1 acceptance checklist: 7 of 7 items flipped to [x] with
PR references.
- T1.9 task bullet closed out with a reference to this PR.
What is deliberately NOT in this PR
- No code changes to the scorer, response builder, or widget.
- No new proto fields or schema changes.
- No cache-key bumps.
- No external expert review (Phase 3 T3.8b, runs in parallel).
- No Phase 2 work.
Depends on nothing at code level; references PRs 2959/2961/2962/2964
which are still in the review queue. This PR can land independently.
Verified
- tests/resilience-cache-keys-health-sync.test.mts 3/3 passing
- methodology doc linter (T1.8) still passes on the updated mdx
- lint:md clean
- test:data clean (4355/4355)
- typecheck clean
- typecheck:api clean
* docs(resilience): correct Timeliness scorecard gap (#2965 P2)
Greptile P2 finding: the Timeliness row in the Phase 1 self-assessment
scorecard claimed "no real-time signals in v1.1" and described
conflict events and power outages as Phase 2 additions, which is
factually wrong. Thirteen stress-side indicators already run at
realtime or daily cadence via the cross-source stack:
realtime: ucdpConflict, internetOutages, infraOutages,
unrestEvents, socialVelocity
daily: sanctionCount, cyberThreats, gpsJamming,
shippingStress, transitDisruption, gasStorageStress,
energyPriceStress, newsThreatScore
The real cadence gap is that structural sources (WGI, GPI, RSF, WHO,
IMF macro) are annual and still carry the majority of index weight,
while the live-shock pillar is already rolling. Phase 2 T2.2 adds
FX volatility at daily cadence to narrow the gap on the
currency-external dimension.
Score itself unchanged (6.5), it was a defensible number. Only
the gap rationale is corrected to match reality.
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Elie Habib
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dca2e1ca3c |
feat(resilience): expose imputationClass on ResilienceDimension (T1.7 schema pass) (#2959)
* feat(resilience): expose imputationClass on ResilienceDimension (T1.7 schema pass) Ships the Phase 1 T1.7 schema pass of the country-resilience reference grade upgrade plan. PR #2944 shipped the classifier table foundation (ImputationClass type, ImputationEntry interface, IMPUTATION/IMPUTE tagged with four semantic classes) and explicitly deferred the schema propagation. This PR lands that propagation so downstream consumers can distinguish "country is stable" from "country is unmonitored" from "upstream is down" from "structurally not applicable" on a per-dimension basis. What this PR commits - Proto: new imputation_class string field on ResilienceDimension (empty string = dimension has any observed data; otherwise one of stable-absence, unmonitored, source-failure, not-applicable). - Generated TS types: regenerated service_server.ts and service_client.ts via make generate. - Scorer: ResilienceDimensionScore carries ImputationClass | null. WeightedMetric carries an optional imputationClass that imputation paths populate. weightedBlend aggregates the dominant class by weight when the dimension is fully imputed, returns null otherwise. - All IMPUTE.* early-return paths propagate the class from the table (IMPUTE.bisEer, IMPUTE.wtoData, IMPUTE.ipcFood, IMPUTE.unhcrDisplacement). - Response builder: _shared.ts buildDimensionList passes the class through to the ResilienceDimension proto field. - Tests: weightedBlend aggregation semantics (5 cases), dimension-level propagation from IMPUTE tables, serialized response includes the field. What is deliberately NOT in this PR - No widget icon rendering (T1.6 full grid, PR 3 of 5) - No source-failure seed-meta consultation (PR 4 of 5) - No freshness field (T1.5 propagation, PR 2 of 5) - No cache key bump: the new field is empty-string default, existing cached responses continue to deserialize cleanly Verified - make generate clean - npm run typecheck + typecheck:api clean - tests/resilience-dimension-scorers.test.mts all passing (existing + new) - tests/resilience-*.test.mts + test:data suite passing (4361 tests) - npm run lint exits 0 * fix(resilience): normalize cached score responses on read (#2959 P2) Greptile P2 finding on PR #2959: cachedFetchJson and getCachedResilienceScores return pre-change payloads verbatim, so a resilience:score:v7 entry written before this PR lands lacks the imputationClass field. Downstream consumers that read dim.imputationClass get undefined for up to 6 hours until the cache TTL expires. Fix: add normalizeResilienceScoreResponse helper that defaults missing optional fields in place and apply it at both read sites. Defaults imputationClass to empty string, matching the proto3 default for the new imputation_class field. - ensureResilienceScoreCached applies the normalizer after cachedFetchJson returns. - getCachedResilienceScores applies it after each successful JSON.parse on the pipeline result. - Two new test cases: stale payload without imputationClass gets defaulted, present values are preserved. - Not bumping the cache key: stale-read defaults are safe, the key bump would invalidate every cached score for a 6-hour cold-start cycle. The normalizer is extensible when PR #2961 adds freshness to the same payload. P3 finding (broken docs reference) verified invalid: the proto comment points to docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx, which IS the current file. The .md predecessor was renamed in PR #2945 (T1.3 methodology doc promotion to CII parity). No change needed to the comment. * fix(resilience): bump score cache key v7 to v8, drop normalizer (#2959 P2) Second fixup for the Greptile P2 finding on #2959. The previous fixup ( |
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Elie Habib
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5e4d6c87ed |
docs(resilience): promote methodology to .mdx at CII parity (T1.3) (#2945)
* docs(resilience): promote methodology to .mdx at CII parity (T1.3)
Why this PR?
Ships Phase 1 T1.3 of the country-resilience reference-grade upgrade
plan: promote the v1.0 methodology document from a scratch markdown
file to a published MDX page at parity with the Country Instability
Index (docs/country-instability-index.mdx).
Before this PR there was no publicly documented resilience methodology
page, only an internal markdown draft. The reference-grade upgrade
plan's origin review explicitly called out methodological opacity as
the biggest gap keeping the product below OECD/JRC standards, and
committed to documenting every dimension, formula, goalpost, cadence,
weight rationale, and imputation rule before any Phase 2 schema work
begins. This PR is that documentation.
What this PR commits:
- git mv docs/methodology/resilience-index.md to
docs/methodology/country-resilience-index.mdx so git history tracks
the rename; edits land as modifications on the new path.
- Adds MDX frontmatter (title + description) matching CII shape so the
page renders correctly in the docs site and shows up in search.
- Prepends a short v1.0 scope note that distinguishes the currently
shipping behavior (this doc) from the planned v2.0 three-pillar
rebuild (tracked in the reference-grade upgrade plan). Readers who
land on the page know exactly what is live and what is coming.
- Fixes an orphan table row (`| Food & Water | Mixed |`) that had
drifted into the Overall Score section from an earlier edit and
was breaking rendering around the score-formula block.
- Rewrites the Imputation Taxonomy section to use the formal
four-class naming from T1.7 (stable-absence, unmonitored,
source-failure, not-applicable) and adds a mapping table from each
concrete IMPUTATION / IMPUTE entry to its class. This is the
public-facing surface of the T1.7 foundation PR.
- Adds a Reproducibility Appendix listing every Redis key used by the
scorer (score cache, ranking cache, history sorted set, intervals,
seed-meta, static record, static index), the meaning of the
`dataVersion` field, and a step-by-step procedure for reproducing
any published country score by hand from a Redis snapshot.
- Adds a Changelog section with a v1.0 entry that references the
prerequisite PRs (#2821, #2847, #2858) and the Phase 1 work landing
so far (T1.1 regression test, T1.4 dataVersion widget wire,
T1.7 imputation taxonomy foundation), plus a v2.0 placeholder that
summarizes the reference-grade upgrade plan for readers.
- Adds editorial notes pointing at the Phase 1 T1.8 methodology doc
linter that will enforce parity between this document and the
indicator registry in _dimension-scorers.ts.
What is deliberately NOT in this PR:
- No v2.0 content presented as shipping. The three-pillar rebuild,
recovery capacity pillar, penalized weighted mean aggregation,
cross-index benchmark, and annual Reference Edition are all tracked
in the reference-grade upgrade plan but not yet implemented. The
changelog v2.0 section names them as planned work, not current
behavior.
- No methodology doc linter. That is T1.8 and ships separately so it
can be reviewed as a tooling change.
- No deletion of the old .md path. git mv preserves history; the old
location renders a 404 which is expected.
Prerequisite PRs verified merged:
- #2821 (baseline / stress engine)
- #2847 (formula revert + RSF direction fix)
- #2858 (seed direct scoring)
Testing:
- Markdown-only change, no code.
- npm run typecheck: clean
- Pre-push hook (typecheck + build:full + version:check) passes.
Generated with Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) via Claude Code
+ Compound Engineering v2.49.0
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* docs(resilience): add v1.0 content to methodology mdx (T1.3 followup)
Companion commit to
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Elie Habib
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7ddf6707b9 |
docs(resilience): add methodology page for the Country Resilience Index (#2864)
* docs(resilience): add methodology page for the Country Resilience Index Documents domains, weights, dimensions, scoring formula, normalization, missing data handling, data sources, and supplementary fields. * fix: add blank line before list to pass markdownlint MD032 * fix(docs): correct formula to domain-weighted sum + remove stale version numbers |