6 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Elie Habib
8cca8d19e3 feat(resilience): Comtrade-backed re-export-share seeder + SWF Redis read (#3385)
* feat(seed): BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS env + runSeed SIGTERM cleanup

Prereq for the re-export-share Comtrade seeder (plan 2026-04-24-003),
usable by any cohort seeder whose consumer needs bundle-level freshness.

Two coupled changes:

1. `_bundle-runner.mjs` injects `BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS` into every
   spawned child. All siblings in a single bundle run share one value
   (captured at `runBundle` start, not spawn time). Consumers use this
   to detect stale peer keys — if a peer's seed-meta predates the
   current bundle run, fall back to a hard default rather than read
   a cohort-peer's last-week output.

2. `_seed-utils.mjs::runSeed` registers a `process.once('SIGTERM')`
   handler that releases the acquired lock and extends existing-data
   TTL before exiting 143. `_bundle-runner.mjs` sends SIGTERM on
   section timeout, then SIGKILL after KILL_GRACE_MS (5s). Without
   this handler the `finally` path never runs on SIGKILL, leaving
   the 30-min acquireLock reservation in place until its own TTL
   expires — the next cron tick silently skips the resource.

Regression guard memory: `bundle-runner-sigkill-leaks-child-lock` (PR
#3128 root cause).

Tests added:
- bundle-runner env injection (value within run bounds)
- sibling sections share the same timestamp (critical for the
  consumer freshness guard)
- runSeed SIGTERM path: exit 143 + cleanup log
- process.once contract: second SIGTERM does not re-enter handler

* fix(seed): address P1/P2 review findings on SIGTERM + bundle contracts

Addresses PR #3384 review findings (todos 256, 257, 259, 260):

#256 (P1) — SIGTERM handler narrowed to fetch phase only. Was installed
at runSeed entry and armed through every `process.exit` path; could
race `emptyDataIsFailure: true` strict-floor exits (IMF-External,
WB-bulk) and extend seed-meta TTL when the contract forbids it —
silently re-masking 30-day outages. Now the handler is attached
immediately before `withRetry(fetchFn)` and removed in a try/finally
that covers all fetch-phase exit branches.

#257 (P1) — `BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS` now has a first-class helper.
Exported `getBundleRunStartedAtMs()` from `_seed-utils.mjs` with JSDoc
describing the bundle-freshness contract. Fleet-wide helper so the
next consumer seeder imports instead of rediscovering the idiom.

#259 (P2) — SIGTERM cleanup runs `Promise.allSettled` on disjoint-key
ops (`releaseLock` + `extendExistingTtl`). Serialising compounded
Upstash latency during the exact failure mode (Redis degraded) this
handler exists to handle, risking breach of the 5s SIGKILL grace.

#260 (P2) — `_bundle-runner.mjs` asserts topological order on
optional `dependsOn` section field. Throws on unknown-label refs and
on deps appearing at a later index. Fleet-wide contract replacing
the previous prose-comment ordering guarantee.

Tests added/updated:
- New: SIGTERM handler removed after fetchFn completes (narrowed-scope
  contract — post-fetch SIGTERM must NOT trigger TTL extension)
- New: dependsOn unknown-label + out-of-order + happy-path (3 tests)

Full test suite: 6,866 tests pass (+4 net).

* fix(seed): getBundleRunStartedAtMs returns null outside a bundle run

Review follow-up: the earlier `Math.floor(Date.now()/1000)*1000` fallback
regressed standalone (non-bundle) runs. A consumer seeder invoked
manually just after its peer wrote `fetchedAt = (now - 5s)` would see
`bundleStartMs = Date.now()`, reject the perfectly-fresh peer envelope
as "stale", and fall back to defaults — defeating the point of the
peer-read path outside the bundle.

Returning null when `BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS` is unset/invalid keeps
the freshness gate scoped to its real purpose (across-bundle-tick
staleness) and lets standalone runs skip the gate entirely. Consumers
check `bundleStartMs != null` before applying the comparison; see the
companion `seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs` change on the stacked PR.

* test(seed): SIGTERM cleanup test now verifies Redis DEL + EXPIRE calls

Greptile review P2 on PR #3384: the existing test only asserted exit
code + log line, not that the Redis ops were actually issued. The
log claim was ahead of the test.

Fixture now logs every Upstash fetch call's shape (EVAL / pipeline-
EXPIRE / other) to stderr. Test asserts:

- >=1 EVAL op was issued during SIGTERM cleanup (releaseLock Lua
  script on the lock key)
- >=1 pipeline-EXPIRE op was issued (extendExistingTtl on canonical
  + seed-meta keys)
- The EVAL body carries the runSeed-generated runId (proves it's
  THIS run's release, not a phantom op)
- The EXPIRE pipeline touches both the canonicalKey AND the
  seed-meta key (proves the keys[] array was built correctly
  including the extraKeys merge path)

Full test suite: 6,866 tests pass, typecheck clean.

* feat(resilience): Comtrade-backed re-export-share seeder + SWF Redis read

Plan ref: docs/plans/2026-04-24-003-feat-reexport-share-comtrade-seeder-plan.md

Motivating case. Before this PR, the SWF `rawMonths` denominator for
the `sovereignFiscalBuffer` dimension used GROSS annual imports for
every country. For re-export hubs (goods transiting without domestic
settlement), this structurally under-reports resilience: UAE's 2023
$941B of imports include $334B of transit flow that never represents
domestic consumption. Net imports = gross × (1 − reexport_share).

The previous (PR 3A) design flattened a hand-curated YAML into Redis;
the YAML shipped empty and never populated, so the correction never
applied and the cohort audit showed no movement.

Gap #2 (this PR). Two coupled changes to make the correction actually
apply:

1. Comtrade-backed seeder (`scripts/seed-recovery-reexport-share.mjs`).
   Rewritten to fetch UN Comtrade `flowCode=RX` (re-exports) and
   `flowCode=M` (imports) per cohort member, compute share = RX/M at
   the latest co-populated year, clamp to [0.05, 0.95], publish the
   envelope. Header auth (`Ocp-Apim-Subscription-Key`) — subscription
   key never reaches URL/logs/Redis. `maxRecords=250000` cap with
   truncation detection. Sequential + retry-on-429 with backoff.

   Hub cohort resolved by Phase 0 empirical probe (plan §Phase 0):
   ['AE', 'PA']. Six candidates (SG/HK/NL/BE/MY/LT) return HTTP 200
   with zero RX rows — Comtrade doesn't expose RX for those reporters.

2. SWF seeder reads from Redis (`scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs`).
   Swaps `loadReexportShareByCountry()` (YAML) for
   `loadReexportShareFromRedis()` (Redis key written by #1). Guarded
   by bundle-run freshness: if the sibling Reexport-Share seeder's
   `seed-meta` predates `BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS` (set by the
   prereq PR's `_bundle-runner.mjs` env-injection), HARD fallback
   to gross imports rather than apply last-month's stale share.

Health registries. Both new keys registered in BOTH `api/health.js`
SEED_META (60-day alert threshold) and `api/seed-health.js`
SEED_DOMAINS (43200min interval). feedback_two_health_endpoints_must_match.

Bundle wiring. `seed-bundle-resilience-recovery` Reexport-Share
timeout bumped 60s → 300s (Comtrade + retry can take 2-3 min
worst-case). Ordering preserved: Reexport-Share before Sovereign-
Wealth so the SWF seeder reads a freshly-written key in the same
cron tick.

Deletions. YAML + loader + 7 obsolete loader tests removed; single
source of truth is now Comtrade → Redis.

Prereq. Stacks on PR #3384 (feat/bundle-runner-env-sigterm)
which adds BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS env injection + runSeed
SIGTERM cleanup. This PR's bundle-freshness guard depends on
that env variable.

Tests (19 new, 7 deleted, +12 net):
- Pure math: parseComtradeFlowResponse, computeShareFromFlows,
  clampShare, declareRecords + credential-leak source scan (15)
- Integration (Gap #2 regression guards): SWF seeder loadReexport
  ShareFromRedis — fresh/absent/malformed/stale-meta/missing-meta (5)
- Health registry dual-registry drift guard — scoped to this PR's
  keys, respecting pre-existing asymmetry (4)
- Bundle-ordering + timeout assertions (2)

Phase 0 cohort validation committed to plan. Full test suite
passes: 6,881 tests.

* fix(resilience): address P1/P2 review findings — adopt shared helpers, pin freshness boundary

Addresses PR #3385 review findings:

#257 (P1) consumer — `seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs` imports the shared
`getBundleRunStartedAtMs` helper from `_seed-utils.mjs` (added in the
prereq commit) instead of its own `getBundleStartMs`. Single source of
truth for the bundle-freshness contract.

#258 (P2) — `seed-recovery-reexport-share.mjs` isMain guard uses the
canonical `pathToFileURL(process.argv[1]).href === import.meta.url`
form instead of basename-suffix matching. Handles symlinks, case-
different paths on macOS HFS+, and Windows path separators without
string munging.

#260 (P2) consumer — Sovereign-Wealth declares `dependsOn:
['Reexport-Share']` in the bundle spec. `_bundle-runner.mjs` (prereq
commit) now enforces topological order on load and throws on
violation — replaces the previous prose-comment ordering contract.

#261 (P2) — added a test to `tests/seed-sovereign-wealth-reads-redis-
reexport-share.test.mts` pinning the inclusive-boundary semantic:
`fetchedAtMs === bundleStartMs` must be treated as FRESH. Guards
against a future refactor to `<=` that would silently reject peers
writing at the very first millisecond of the bundle run.

Rebased onto updated prereq. Full test suite: 6,886 tests pass (+5 net).

* fix(resilience): freshness gate skipped in standalone mode; meta still required

Review catch: the previous `bundleStartMs = Date.now()` fallback made
standalone/manual `seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs` runs ALWAYS reject any
previously-seeded re-export-share meta as "stale" — even when the
operator ran the Reexport seeder milliseconds beforehand. Defeated
the point of the peer-read path outside the bundle.

With `getBundleRunStartedAtMs()` now returning null outside a bundle
(companion commit on the prereq branch), the consumer only applies
the freshness gate when `bundleStartMs != null`. Standalone runs
accept any `fetchedAt` — the operator is responsible for ordering.

Two guards survive the change:
- Meta MUST exist (absence = peer-outage fail-safe, both modes)
- In-bundle: meta MUST be at or after `BUNDLE_RUN_STARTED_AT_MS`

Two new tests pin both modes:
- standalone: accepts meta written 10 min before this process started
- standalone: still rejects missing meta (peer-outage fail-safe
  survives gate bypass)

Rebased onto updated prereq. Full test suite: 6,888 tests (+2 net).

* fix(resilience): filter world-aggregate Comtrade rows + skip final-retry sleep

Greptile review of PR #3385 flagged two P2s in the Comtrade seeder.

Finding #3 (parseComtradeFlowResponse double-count risk):
`cmdCode=TOTAL` without a partner filter currently returns only
world-aggregate rows in practice — but `parseComtradeFlowResponse`
summed every row unconditionally. A future refactor adding per-
partner querying would silently double-count (world-aggregate row +
partner-level rows for the same year), cutting the derived share in
half with no test signal.

Fix: explicit `partnerCode ∈ {'0', 0, null/undefined}` filter. Matches
current empirical behavior (aggregate-only responses) and makes the
construct robust to a future partner-level query.

Finding #4 (wasted backoff on final retry):
429 and 5xx branches slept `backoffMs` before `continue`, but on
`attempt === RETRY_MAX_ATTEMPTS` the loop condition fails immediately
after — the sleep was pure waste. Added early-return (parallel to the
existing pattern in the network-error catch branch) so the final
attempt exits the retry loop at the first non-success response
without extra latency.

Tests:
- 3 new `parseComtradeFlowResponse` variants: world-only filter,
  numeric-0 partnerCode shape, rows without partnerCode field
- Existing tests updated: the double-count assertion replaced with
  a "per-partner rows must NOT sum into the world-aggregate total"
  assertion that pins the new contract

Rebased onto updated prereq. Full test suite: 6,890 tests (+2 net).
2026-04-25 00:14:17 +04:00
Elie Habib
184e82cb40 feat(resilience): PR 3A — net-imports denominator for sovereignFiscalBuffer (#3380)
PR 3A of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. Construct correction for
re-export hubs: the SWF rawMonths denominator was gross imports, which
double-counted flow-through trade that never represents domestic
consumption. Net-imports fix:

  rawMonths = aum / (grossImports × (1 − reexportShareOfImports)) × 12

applied to any country in the re-export share manifest. Countries NOT
in the manifest get gross imports unchanged (status-quo fallback).

Plan acceptance gates — verified synthetically in this PR:

  Construct invariant. Two synthetic countries, same SWF, same gross
  imports. A re-exports 60%; B re-exports 0%. Post-fix, A's rawMonths
  is 2.5× B's (1/(1-0.6) = 2.5). Pinned in
  tests/resilience-net-imports-denominator.test.mts.

  SWF-heavy exporter invariant. Country with share ≤ 5%: rawMonths
  lift < 5% vs baseline (negligible). Pinned.

What shipped

1. Re-export share manifest infrastructure.
   - scripts/shared/reexport-share-manifest.yaml (new, empty) — schema
     committed; entries populated in follow-up PRs with UNCTAD
     Handbook citations.
   - scripts/shared/reexport-share-loader.mjs (new) — loader + strict
     validator, mirrors swf-manifest-loader.mjs.
   - scripts/seed-recovery-reexport-share.mjs (new) — publishes
     resilience:recovery:reexport-share:v1 from manifest. Empty
     manifest = valid (no countries, no adjustment).

2. SWF seeder uses net-imports denominator.
   - scripts/seed-sovereign-wealth.mjs exports computeNetImports(gross,
     share) — pure helper, unit-tested.
   - Per-country loop: reads manifest, computes denominatorImports,
     applies to rawMonths math.
   - Payload records annualImports (gross, audit), denominatorImports
     (used in math), reexportShareOfImports (provenance).
   - Summary log reports which countries had a net-imports adjustment
     applied with source year.

3. Bundle wiring.
   - Reexport-Share runs BEFORE Sovereign-Wealth in the recovery
     bundle so the SWF seeder reads fresh re-export data in the same
     cron tick.
   - tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs expected-entries
     updated (6 → 7) with ordering preservation.

4. Cache-prefix bump (per cache-prefix-bump-propagation-scope skill).
   - RESILIENCE_SCORE_CACHE_PREFIX: v11 → v12
   - RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY: v11 → v12
   - RESILIENCE_HISTORY_KEY_PREFIX: v6 → v7 (history rotation prevents
     30-day rolling window from mixing pre/post-fix scores and
     manufacturing false "falling" trends on deploy day).
   - Source of truth: server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts
   - Mirrored in: scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs,
     scripts/validate-resilience-correlation.mjs,
     scripts/backtest-resilience-outcomes.mjs,
     scripts/validate-resilience-backtest.mjs,
     scripts/benchmark-resilience-external.mjs, api/health.js
   - Test literals bumped in 4 test files (26 line edits).
   - EXTENDED tests/resilience-cache-keys-health-sync.test.mts with
     a parity pass that reads every known mirror file and asserts
     both (a) canonical prefix present AND (b) no stale v<older>
     literals in non-comment code. Found one legacy log-line that
     still referenced v9 (scripts/seed-resilience-scores.mjs:342)
     and refactored it to use the RESILIENCE_RANKING_CACHE_KEY
     constant so future bumps self-update.

Explicitly NOT in this PR

- liquidReserveAdequacy denominator fix. The plan's PR 3A wording
  mentions both dims, but the RESERVES ratio (WB FI.RES.TOTL.MO) is a
  PRE-COMPUTED WB series; applying a post-hoc net-imports adjustment
  mixes WB's denominator year with our manifest-year, and the math
  change belongs in PR 3B (unified liquidity) where the α calibration
  is explicit. This PR stays scoped to sovereignFiscalBuffer.
- Live re-export share entries. The manifest ships EMPTY in this PR;
  entries with UNCTAD citations are one-per-PR follow-ups so each
  figure is individually auditable.

Verified

- tests/resilience-net-imports-denominator.test.mts — 9 pass (construct
  contract: 2.5× ratio gate, monotonicity, boundary rejections,
  backward-compat on missing manifest entry, cohort-proportionality,
  SWF-heavy-exporter-unchanged)
- tests/reexport-share-loader.test.mts — 7 pass (committed-manifest
  shape + 6 schema-violation rejections)
- tests/resilience-cache-keys-health-sync.test.mts — 5 pass (existing 3
  + 2 new parity checks across all mirror files)
- tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs — 17 pass (expected
  entries bumped to 7)
- npm run test:data — 6714 pass / 0 fail
- npm run typecheck / typecheck:api — green
- npm run lint / lint:md — clean

Deployment notes

Score + ranking + history cache prefixes all bump in the same deploy.
Per established v10→v11 precedent (and the cache-prefix-bump-
propagation-scope skill):
- Score / ranking: 6h TTL — the new prefix populates via the Railway
  resilience-scores cron within one tick.
- History: 30d ring — the v7 ring starts empty; the first 30 days
  post-deploy lack baseline points, so trend / change30d will read as
  "no change" until v7 accumulates a window.
- Legacy v11 keys can be deleted from Redis at any time post-deploy
  (no reader references them). Leaving them in place costs storage
  but does no harm.
2026-04-24 18:14:04 +04:00
Elie Habib
24786882ae chore(railway): wire seed-sovereign-wealth into resilience-recovery bundle (#3319)
* chore(railway): add seed-sovereign-wealth to resilience-recovery bundle

Wires the seeder landed in #3305 into the existing Railway cron service
`seed-bundle-resilience-recovery`. One-line bundle entry; no new
Railway service (the bundle pattern amortizes cron cost across the
recovery-domain seeders).

Config matches the rest of the bundle:
- intervalMs: 30 * DAY (parity with CACHE_TTL_SECONDS=35d in the
  seeder + the quarterly manifest revision cadence)
- timeoutMs: 600_000 (longer than peers because Tier 3b does N per-fund
  Wikipedia article fetches for any fund missing from the list article;
  today Temasek is the only miss but leaving headroom)

After deploy, the next cron tick populates
`resilience:recovery:sovereign-wealth:v1`, which then unblocks the
follow-up PR that adds the scorer + dimension wiring.

* fix(tests): update resilience-recovery bundle test for 6th entry

Static-analysis test in tests/seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.test.mjs
was hardcoded to `5 entries` / `all 5 entries use 30 * DAY`. Adding
Sovereign-Wealth to the bundle (previous commit) made the count 6,
breaking both assertions.

Replaced hardcoded `5` with `EXPECTED_ENTRIES.length` so the next
addition only requires appending to the allow-list at the top of the
file (and the assertion message prompts the author to do that if the
count drifts). Also appended the Sovereign-Wealth entry to the
EXPECTED_ENTRIES list.

6566/6566 data-tier tests pass locally.
2026-04-23 08:19:04 +04:00
Elie Habib
044598346e feat(seed-contract): PR 2a — runSeed envelope dual-write + 91 seeders migrated (#3097)
* feat(seed-contract): PR 2a — runSeed envelope dual-write + 91 seeders migrated

Opt-in contract path in runSeed: when opts.declareRecords is provided, write
{_seed, data} envelope to the canonical key alongside legacy seed-meta:*
(dual-write). State machine: OK / OK_ZERO / RETRY with zeroIsValid opt.
declareRecords throws or returns non-integer → hard fail (contract violation).
extraKeys[*] support per-key declareRecords; each extra key writes its own
envelope. Legacy seeders (no declareRecords) entirely unchanged.

Migrated all 91 scripts/seed-*.mjs to contract mode. Each exports
declareRecords returning the canonical record count, and passes
schemaVersion: 1 + maxStaleMin (matched to api/health.js SEED_META, or 2.5x
interval where no registry entry exists). Contract conformance reports 84/86
seeders with full descriptor (2 pre-existing warnings).

Legacy seed-meta keys still written so unmigrated readers keep working;
follow-up slices flip health.js + readers to envelope-first.

Tests: 61/61 PR 1 tests still pass.

Next slices for PR 2:
- api/health.js registry collapse + 15 seed-bundle-*.mjs canonicalKey wiring
- reader migration (mcp, resilience, aviation, displacement, regional-snapshot)
- direct writers — ais-relay.cjs, consumer-prices-core publish.ts
- public-boundary stripSeedEnvelope + test migration

Plan: docs/plans/2026-04-14-002-fix-runseed-zero-record-lockout-plan.md

* fix(seed-contract): unwrap envelopes in internal cross-seed readers

After PR 2a enveloped 91 canonical keys as {_seed, data}, every script-side
reader that returned the raw parsed JSON started silently handing callers the
envelope instead of the bare payload. WoW baselines (bigmac, grocery-basket,
fear-greed) saw undefined .countries / .composite; seed-climate-anomalies saw
undefined .normals from climate:zone-normals:v1; seed-thermal-escalation saw
undefined .fireDetections from wildfire:fires:v1; seed-forecasts' ~40-key
pipeline batch returned envelopes for every input.

Fix: route every script-side reader through unwrapEnvelope(...).data. Legacy
bare-shape values pass through unchanged (unwrapEnvelope returns
{_seed: null, data: raw} for any non-envelope shape).

Changed:
- scripts/_seed-utils.mjs: import unwrapEnvelope; redisGet, readSeedSnapshot,
  verifySeedKey all unwrap. Exported new readCanonicalValue() helper for
  cross-seed consumers.
- 18 seed-*.mjs scripts with local redisGet-style helpers or inline fetch
  patched to unwrap via the envelope source module (subagent sweep).
- scripts/seed-forecasts.mjs pipeline batch: parse() unwraps each result.
- scripts/seed-energy-spine.mjs redisMget: unwraps each result.

Tests:
- tests/seed-utils-envelope-reads.test.mjs: 7 new cases covering envelope
  + legacy + null paths for readSeedSnapshot and verifySeedKey.
- Full seed suite: 67/67 pass (was 61, +6 new).

Addresses both of user's P1 findings on PR #3097.

* feat(seed-contract): envelope-aware reads in server + api helpers

Every RPC and public-boundary reader now automatically strips _seed from
contract-mode canonical keys. Legacy bare-shape values pass through unchanged
(unwrapEnvelope no-ops on non-envelope shapes).

Changed helpers (one-place fix — unblocks ~60 call sites):
- server/_shared/redis.ts: getRawJson, getCachedJson, getCachedJsonBatch
  unwrap by default. cachedFetchJson inherits via getCachedJson.
- api/_upstash-json.js: readJsonFromUpstash unwraps (covers api/mcp.ts
  tool responses + all its canonical-key reads).
- api/bootstrap.js: getCachedJsonBatch unwraps (public-boundary —
  clients never see envelope metadata).

Left intentionally unchanged:
- api/health.js / api/seed-health.js: read only seed-meta:* keys which
  remain bare-shape during dual-write. unwrapEnvelope already imported at
  the meta-read boundary (PR 1) as a defensive no-op.

Tests: 67/67 seed tests pass. typecheck + typecheck:api clean.

This is the blast-radius fix the PR #3097 review called out — external
readers that would otherwise see {_seed, data} after the writer side
migrated.

* fix(test): strip export keyword in vm.runInContext'd seed source

cross-source-signals-regulatory.test.mjs loads scripts/seed-cross-source-signals.mjs
via vm.runInContext, which cannot parse ESM `export` syntax. PR 2a added
`export function declareRecords` to every seeder, which broke this test's
static-analysis approach.

Fix: strip the `export` keyword from the declareRecords line in the
preprocessed source string so the function body still evaluates as a plain
declaration.

Full test:data suite: 5307/5307 pass. typecheck + typecheck:api clean.

* feat(seed-contract): consumer-prices publish.ts writes envelopes

Wrap the 5 canonical keys written by consumer-prices-core/src/jobs/publish.ts
(overview, movers:7d/30d, freshness, categories:7d/30d/90d, retailer-spread,
basket-series) in {_seed, data} envelopes. Legacy seed-meta:<key> writes
preserved for dual-write.

Inlined a buildEnvelope helper (10 lines) rather than taking a cross-package
dependency — consumer-prices-core is a standalone npm package. Documented the
four-file parity contract (mjs source, ts mirror, js edge mirror, this copy).

Contract fields: sourceVersion='consumer-prices-core-publish-v1', schemaVersion=1,
state='OK' (recordCount>0) or 'OK_ZERO' (legitimate zero).

Typecheck: no new errors in publish.ts.

* fix(seed-contract): 3 more server-side readers unwrap envelopes

Found during final audit:

- server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/_shared.ts: resilience score reader
  parsed cached GetResilienceScoreResponse raw. Contract-mode seed-resilience-scores
  now envelopes those keys.
- server/worldmonitor/resilience/v1/get-resilience-ranking.ts: p05/p95
  interval lookup parsed raw from seed-resilience-scores' extra-key path.
- server/worldmonitor/infrastructure/v1/_shared.ts: mgetJson() used for
  count-source keys (wildfire:fires:v1, news:insights:v1) which are both
  contract-mode now.

All three now unwrap via server/_shared/seed-envelope. Legacy shapes pass
through unchanged.

Typecheck clean.

* feat(seed-contract): ais-relay.cjs direct writes produce envelopes

32 canonical-key write sites in scripts/ais-relay.cjs now produce {_seed, data}
envelopes. Inlined buildEnvelope() (CJS module can't require ESM source) +
envelopeWrite(key, data, ttlSeconds, meta) wrapper. Enveloped keys span market
bootstrap, aviation, cyber-threats, theater-posture, weather-alerts, economic
spending/fred/worldbank, tech-events, corridor-risk, usni-fleet, shipping-stress,
social:reddit, wsb-tickers, pizzint, product-catalog, chokepoint transits,
ucdp-events, satellites, oref.

Left bare (not seeded data keys): seed-meta:* (dual-write legacy),
classifyCacheKey LLM cache, notam:prev-closed-state internal state,
wm:notif:scan-dedup flags.

Updated tests/ucdp-seed-resilience.test.mjs regex to accept both upstashSet
(pre-contract) and envelopeWrite (post-contract) call patterns.

* feat(seed-contract): 15 bundle files add canonicalKey for envelope gate

54 bundle sections across 12 files now declare canonicalKey alongside the
existing seedMetaKey. _bundle-runner.mjs (from PR 1) prefers canonicalKey
when both are present — gates section runs on envelope._seed.fetchedAt
read directly from the data key, eliminating the meta-outlives-data class
of bugs.

Files touched:
- climate (5), derived-signals (2), ecb-eu (3), energy-sources (6),
  health (2), imf-extended (4), macro (10), market-backup (9),
  portwatch (4), relay-backup (2), resilience-recovery (5), static-ref (2)

Skipped (14 sections, 3 whole bundles): multi-key writers, dynamic
templated keys (displacement year-scoped), or non-runSeed orchestrators
(regional brief cron, resilience-scores' 222-country publish, validation/
benchmark scripts). These continue to use seedMetaKey or their own gate.

seedMetaKey preserved everywhere — dual-write. _bundle-runner.mjs falls
back to legacy when canonicalKey is absent.

All 15 bundles pass node --check. test:data: 5307/5307. typecheck:all: clean.

* fix(seed-contract): 4 PR #3097 review P1s — transform/declareRecords mismatches + envelope leaks

Addresses both P1 findings and the extra-key seed-meta leak surfaced in review:

1. runSeed helper-level invariant: seed-meta:* keys NEVER envelope.
   scripts/_seed-utils.mjs exports shouldEnvelopeKey(key) — returns false for
   any key starting with 'seed-meta:'. Both atomicPublish (canonical) and
   writeExtraKey (extras) gate the envelope wrap through this helper. Fixes
   seed-iea-oil-stocks' ANALYSIS_META_EXTRA_KEY silently getting enveloped,
   which broke health.js parsing the value as bare {fetchedAt, recordCount}.
   Also defends against any future manual writeExtraKey(..., envelopeMeta)
   call that happens to target a seed-meta:* key.

2. seed-token-panels canonical + extras fixed.
   publishTransform returns data.defi (the defi panel itself, shape {tokens}).
   Old declareRecords counted data.defi.tokens + data.ai.tokens + data.other.tokens
   on the transformed payload → 0 → RETRY path → canonical market:defi-tokens:v1
   never wrote, and because runSeed returned before the extraKeys loop,
   market:ai-tokens:v1 + market:other-tokens:v1 stayed stale too.
   New: declareRecords counts data.tokens on the transformed shape. AI_KEY +
   OTHER_KEY extras reuse the same function (transforms return structurally
   identical panels). Added isMain guard so test imports don't fire runSeed.

3. api/product-catalog.js cached reader unwraps envelope.
   ais-relay.cjs now envelopes product-catalog:v2 via envelopeWrite(). The
   edge reader did raw JSON.parse(result) and returned {_seed, data} to
   clients, breaking the cached path. Fix: import unwrapEnvelope from
   ./_seed-envelope.js, apply after JSON.parse. One site — :238-241 is
   downstream of getFromCache(), so the single reader fix covers both.

4. Regression lock tests/seed-contract-transform-regressions.test.mjs (11 cases):
   - shouldEnvelopeKey invariant: seed-meta:* false, canonical true
   - Token-panels declareRecords works on transformed shape (canonical + both extras)
   - Explicit repro of pre-fix buggy signature returning 0 — guards against revert
   - resolveRecordCount accepts 0, rejects non-integer
   - Product-catalog envelope unwrap returns bare shape; legacy passes through

Verification:
- npm run test:data → 5318/5318 pass (was 5307 — 11 new regressions)
- npm run typecheck:all → clean
- node --check on every modified script

iea-oil-stocks canonical declareRecords was NOT broken (user confirmed during
review — buildIndex preserves .members); only its ANALYSIS_META_EXTRA_KEY
was affected, now covered generically by commit 1's helper invariant.

* fix(seed-contract): seed-token-panels validateFn also runs on post-transform shape

Review finding: fixing declareRecords wasn't sufficient — atomicPublish() runs
validateFn(publishData) on the transformed payload too. seed-token-panels'
validate() checked data.defi/.ai/.other on the transformed {tokens} shape,
returned false, and runSeed took the early skipped-write branch (before even
reaching the declareRecords RETRY logic). Net effect: same as before the
declareRecords fix — canonical + both extras stayed stale.

Fix: validate() now checks the canonical defi panel directly (Array.isArray
(data?.tokens) && has at least one t.price > 0). AI/OTHER panels are validated
implicitly by their own extraKey declareRecords on write.

Audited the other 9 seeders with publishTransform (bls-series, bis-extended,
bis-data, gdelt-intel, trade-flows, iea-oil-stocks, jodi-gas, sanctions-pressure,
forecasts): all validateFn's correctly target the post-transform shape. Only
token-panels regressed.

Added 4 regression tests (tests/seed-contract-transform-regressions.test.mjs):
- validate accepts transformed panel with priced tokens
- validate rejects all-zero-price tokens
- validate rejects empty/missing tokens
- Explicit pre-fix repro (buggy old signature fails on transformed shape)

Verification:
- npm run test:data → 5322/5322 pass (was 5318; +4 new)
- npm run typecheck:all → clean
- node --check clean

* feat(seed-contract): add /api/seed-contract-probe validation endpoint

Single machine-readable gate for 'is PR #3097 working in production'.
Replaces the curl/jq ritual with one authenticated edge call that returns
HTTP 200 ok:true or 503 + failing check list.

What it validates:
- 8 canonical keys have {_seed, data} envelopes with required data fields
  and minRecords floors (fsi-eu, zone-normals, 3 token panels + minRecords
  guard against token-panels RETRY regression, product-catalog, wildfire,
  earthquakes).
- 2 seed-meta:* keys remain BARE (shouldEnvelopeKey invariant; guards
  against iea-oil-stocks ANALYSIS_META_EXTRA_KEY-class regressions).
- /api/product-catalog + /api/bootstrap responses contain no '_seed' leak.

Auth: x-probe-secret header must match RELAY_SHARED_SECRET (reuses existing
Vercel↔Railway internal trust boundary).

Probe logic is exported (checkProbe, checkPublicBoundary, DEFAULT_PROBES) for
hermetic testing. tests/seed-contract-probe.test.mjs covers every branch:
envelope pass/fail on field/records/shape, bare pass/fail on shape/field,
missing/malformed JSON, Redis non-2xx, boundary seed-leak detection,
DEFAULT_PROBES sanity (seed-meta invariant present, token-panels minRecords
guard present).

Usage:
  curl -H "x-probe-secret: $RELAY_SHARED_SECRET" \
       https://api.worldmonitor.app/api/seed-contract-probe

PR 3 will extend the probe with a stricter mode that asserts seed-meta:*
keys are GONE (not just bare) once legacy dual-write is removed.

Verification:
- tests/seed-contract-probe.test.mjs → 15/15 pass
- npm run test:data → 5338/5338 (was 5322; +16 new incl. conformance)
- npm run typecheck:all → clean

* fix(seed-contract): tighten probe — minRecords on AI/OTHER + cache-path source header

Review P2 findings: the probe's stated guards were weaker than advertised.

1. market:ai-tokens:v1 + market:other-tokens:v1 probes claimed to guard the
   token-panels extra-key RETRY regression but only checked shape='envelope'
   + dataHas:['tokens']. If an extra-key declareRecords regressed to 0, both
   probes would still pass because checkProbe() only inspects _seed.recordCount
   when minRecords is set. Now both enforce minRecords: 1.

2. /api/product-catalog boundary check only asserted no '_seed' leak — which
   is also true for the static fallback path. A broken cached reader
   (getFromCache returning null or throwing) could serve fallback silently
   and still pass this probe. Now:
   - api/product-catalog.js emits X-Product-Catalog-Source: cache|dodo|fallback
     on the response (the json() helper gained an optional source param wired
     to each of the three branches).
   - checkPublicBoundary declaratively requires that header's value match
     'cache' for /api/product-catalog, so a fallback-serve fails the probe
     with reason 'source:fallback!=cache' or 'source:missing!=cache'.

Test updates (tests/seed-contract-probe.test.mjs):
- Boundary check reworked to use a BOUNDARY_CHECKS config with optional
  requireSourceHeader per endpoint.
- New cases: served-from-cache passes, served-from-fallback fails with source
  mismatch, missing header fails, seed-leak still takes precedence, bad
  status fails.
- Token-panels sanity test now asserts minRecords≥1 on all 3 panels.

Verification:
- tests/seed-contract-probe.test.mjs → 17/17 pass (was 15, +2 net)
- npm run test:data → 5340/5340
- npm run typecheck:all → clean
2026-04-15 09:16:27 +04:00
Elie Habib
7525441d1c fix(seeds): make Import-HHI resumable and parallel across API keys (#3030)
* fix(seeds): make Import-HHI resumable and parallel across API keys

The 239-reporter sequential loop with 600ms delay + 60s 429 backoffs blew
the 600s bundle timeout every run, discarding all progress. Redesign:

- Resume: reuse entries fresher than 14 days from last snapshot, refetch only
  missing reporters. Two consecutive monthly runs cover the world even if
  each only finishes ~half.
- Concurrency = key count: one worker per COMTRADE_API_KEY pulling from a
  shared queue. No two in-flight requests compete for the same key's rate
  limit.
- Checkpoint: write partial countries to Redis every 25 successes so crashes
  do not discard work.
- Shorten 429 backoff from 60s to 15s; failed reporters get picked up on
  the next run via resume.
- Add fetchedAt timestamp per country for resume eligibility.
- Bump bundle timeout 600s -> 1800s.

* fix: address PR review — checkpoint race, lock TTL, legacy snapshot resume

- P1: checkpoint writes now go to a separate CHECKPOINT_KEY serialized by an
  in-process mutex. Canonical key is published once by runSeed at the end,
  so slow earlier writes cannot roll a newer snapshot backward.
- P2: pass lockTtlMs=30min to runSeed (matches bundle timeout) so the lock
  cannot expire mid-run and allow overlapping invocations.
- Resume now reads both checkpoint and canonical keys. For legacy snapshots
  without per-country fetchedAt, fall back to top-level seededAt so the
  first post-deploy run reuses existing state.

* fix: extend resume TTL past bundle freshness gate (review)

Bundle runner skips a section if seed-meta is fresher than
intervalMs * 0.8 (~24 days for a 30-day interval). The prior
14-day resume TTL meant: a partial run with >=80 countries
passes validate(), refreshes seed-meta, suppresses the next
bundle for ~24 days, and by then the resume window is expired —
so the next run starts from zero instead of building on prior
partial coverage.

Extend RESUME_TTL_MS and CHECKPOINT_TTL to 45 days so
consecutive partial runs can accumulate coverage across bundle
cycles. Comtrade annual data changes yearly; 45-day cached HHI
values remain representative.
2026-04-12 22:32:49 +04:00
Elie Habib
21331b9a1e feat(resilience): recovery seeder bundle + de-stub import-HHI and fuel-stocks (#2999)
* feat(resilience): recovery seeder bundle + de-stub import-HHI and fuel-stocks

- Add seed-bundle-resilience-recovery.mjs orchestrating all 5 recovery seeders
  (fiscal-space, reserve-adequacy, external-debt, import-HHI, fuel-stocks)
  with 30-day intervals and freshness-gated skipping via _bundle-runner
- Replace import-HHI stub with real Comtrade HS2 HHI computation: fetches
  per-country bilateral import data, computes Herfindahl-Hirschman Index,
  flags concentrated importers (HHI > 0.25), 90-day TTL (3x interval)
- Replace fuel-stocks stub with IEA-derived implementation: reads existing
  energy:iea-oil-stocks:v1:index Redis key, computes fuel-stock-days per
  country, flags 90-day IEA obligation compliance, avoids duplicate API calls
- Add tests: HHI computation (8 cases), fuel-stock-days derivation (6 cases),
  bundle smoke test (13 cases verifying entries, labels, scripts on disk)

* fix(resilience): remove duplicate RESILIENCE_SCHEMA_V2_ENABLED declaration

Pre-existing typecheck:api error from duplicate const export in _shared.ts.
Keep the v2-enabled-by-default variant.

* fix(resilience): Comtrade HHI seeder P1 fixes (#2999 review)

1. Removed fallback to public preview API (sends partnerCode='' which
   returns zero rows). COMTRADE_API_KEY is now required. Logs an error
   and returns empty if missing. Pinned period to previous year to
   avoid multi-year row duplication.

2. computeHhi() now aggregates values by partner (Map) before computing
   shares. Previously it computed per-row shares, so a partner appearing
   in N commodity rows was counted N times, understating concentration.
   Returns { hhi, partnerCount } instead of a bare number.

Added 2 new test cases covering multi-row and multi-year aggregation.

* fix(resilience): use COMTRADE_API_KEYS (plural) with key rotation

* fix(resilience): omit partnerCode to fetch all bilateral partners (not world aggregate)

* fix(resilience): HHI scale conversion + fuel-stocks field name (#2999 P1)

1. HHI seeder writes 0..1 scale but scorer expected 0..5000. Added
   *10000 conversion before normalizeLowerBetter so a concentrated
   importer at hhi=0.55 maps to 5500 (above the 5000 goalpost, scores
   low) instead of scoring near-perfect.

2. Fuel-stocks seeder writes fuelStockDays but scorer read stockDays.
   Updated the RecoveryFuelStocksCountry interface and both read sites
   to match the seeder field name.

* fix(resilience): retry warning + fuel-stocks flag consistency (#2999 P2)
2026-04-12 11:39:48 +04:00