Elie Habib abdcdb581f feat(resilience): SWF manifest expansion + KIA split + new schema fields (#3391) ...

* feat(resilience): SWF manifest expansion + KIA split + new schema fields

Phase 1 of plan 2026-04-25-001 (Codex-approved round 5). Manifest-only
data correction; no construct change, no cache prefix bump.

Schema additions (loader-validated, misplacement-rejected):
- top-level: aum_usd, aum_year, aum_verified (primary-source AUM)
- under classification: aum_pct_of_audited (fraction multiplier),
  excluded_overlaps_with_reserves (boolean; documentation-only)

Manifest expansion (13 → 21 funds, 6 → 13 countries):
- UAE: +ICD ($320B verified), +ADQ ($199B verified), +EIA (unverified —
  loaded for documentation, excluded from scoring per data-integrity rule)
- KW: kia split into kia-grf (5%, access=0.9) + kia-fgf (95%,
  access=0.20). Corrects ~18× over-statement of crisis-deployable
  Kuwait sovereign wealth (audit found combined-AUM × 0.7 access
  applied $750B as "deployable" against ~$15B actual GRF stabilization
  capacity).
- CN: +CIC ($1.35T), +NSSF ($400B, statutorily-gated 0.20 tier),
  +SAFE-IC ($417B, excluded — overlaps SAFE FX reserves)
- HK: +HKMA-EF ($498B, excluded — overlaps HKMA reserves)
- KR: +KIC ($182B, IFSWF full member)
- AU: +Future Fund ($192B, pension-locked)
- OM: +OIA ($50B, IFSWF member)
- BH: +Mumtalakat ($19B)
- TL: +Petroleum Fund ($22B, GPFG-style high-transparency)

Re-audits (Phase 1E):
- ADIA access 0.3 → 0.4 (rubric flagged; ruler-discretionary deployment
  empirically demonstrated)
- Mubadala access 0.4 → 0.5 (rubric flagged); transparency 0.6 → 0.7
  (LM=10 + IFSWF full member alignment)

Rubric (docs/methodology/swf-classification-rubric.md):
- New "Statutorily-gated long-horizon" 0.20 access tier added between
  0.1 (sanctions/frozen) and 0.3 (intergenerational/ruler-discretionary).
  Anchored by KIA-FGF (Decree 106 of 1976; Council-of-Ministers + Emir
  decree gate; crossed once in extremis during COVID).

Seeder:
- Two new pure helpers: shouldSkipFundForBuffer (excluded/unverified
  decision) and applyAumPctOfAudited (sleeve fraction multiplier)
- Manifest-AUM bypass: if aum_verified=true AND aum_usd present,
  use that value directly (skip Wikipedia)
- Skip funds with excluded_overlaps_with_reserves=true (no
  double-counting against reserveAdequacy / liquidReserveAdequacy)
- Skip funds with aum_verified=false (load for documentation only)

Tests (+25 net):
- 15 schema-extension tests (misplacement rejection, value-range gates,
  rationale-pairing coherence, backward-compat with pre-PR entries)
- 10 helper tests (shouldSkipFundForBuffer + applyAumPctOfAudited
  predicates and arithmetic; KIA-GRF + KIA-FGF sum equals combined AUM)
- Existing manifest test updated for the kia → kia-grf+kia-fgf split

Full suite: 6,940 tests pass (+50 net), typecheck clean, no new lint.

Predicted ranking deltas (informational, NOT acceptance criteria per
plan §"Hard non-goals"):
- AE sovFiscBuf likely 39 → 47-49 (Phase 1A + 1E)
- KW sovFiscBuf likely 98 → 53-57 (Phase 1B)
- CN, HK (excluded), KR, AU acquire newly-defined sovFiscBuf scores
- GCC ordering shifts toward QA > KW > AE; AE-KW gap likely 6 → ~3-4

Real outcome will be measured post-deploy via cohort audit per plan
§Phase 4.

* fix(resilience): completeness denominator excludes documentation-only funds

PR-3391 review (P1 catch): the per-country `expectedFunds` denominator
counted ALL manifest entries (`funds.length`) including those skipped
from buffer scoring by design — `excluded_overlaps_with_reserves: true`
(SAFE-IC, HKMA-EF) and `aum_verified: false` (EIA). Result: countries
with mixed scorable + non-scorable rosters showed `completeness < 1.0`
even when every scorable fund matched. UAE (4 scorable + EIA) would
show 0.8; CN (CIC + NSSF + SAFE-IC excluded) would show 0.67. The
downstream scorer then derated those countries' coverage based on a
fake-partial signal.

Three call sites all carried the same bug:
- per-country `expectedFunds` in fetchSovereignWealth main loop
- `expectedFundsTotal` + `expectedCountries` in buildCoverageSummary
- `countManifestFundsForCountry` (missing-country path)

All three now filter via `shouldSkipFundForBuffer` to count only
scorable manifest entries. Documentation-only funds neither expected
nor matched — they don't appear in the ratio at all.

Tests added (+4):
- AE complete with all 4 scorable matched (EIA documented but excluded)
- CN complete with CIC + NSSF matched (SAFE-IC documented but excluded)
- Missing-country path returns scorable count not raw manifest count
- Country with ONLY documentation-only entries excluded from expectedCountries

Full suite: 6,944 tests pass (+4 net), typecheck clean.

* fix(resilience): address Greptile P2s on PR #3391 manifest

Three review findings, all in the manifest YAML:

1. **KIA-GRF access 0.9 → 0.7** (rubric alignment): GRF deployment
   requires active Council-of-Ministers authorization (2020 COVID
   precedent demonstrates this), not rule-triggered automatic
   deployment. The rubric's 0.9 tier ("Pure automatic stabilization")
   reserved for funds where political authorization is post-hoc /
   symbolic (Chile ESSF candidate). KIA-GRF correctly fits 0.7
   ("Explicit stabilization with rule") — the same tier the
   pre-split combined-KIA was assigned. Updated rationale clarifies
   the tier choice. Rubric's 0.7 precedent column already lists
   "KIA General Reserve Fund" — now consistent with the manifest.

2. **Duplicate `# ── Australia ──` header before Oman** (copy-paste
   artifact): removed the orphaned header at the Oman section;
   added proper `# ── Australia ──` header above the Future Fund
   entry where it actually belongs (after Timor-Leste).

3. **NSSF `aum_pct_of_audited: 1.0` removed** (no-op): a multiplier
   of 1.0 is identity. The schema field is OPTIONAL and only meant
   for fund-of-funds split entries (e.g. KIA-GRF/FGF). Setting it
   to 1.0 forced the loader to require an `aum_pct_of_audited`
   rationale paragraph with no computational benefit. Both the
   field and the paragraph are now removed; NSSF remains a single-
   sleeve entry that scores its full audited AUM.

Full suite: 6,944 tests pass, typecheck clean.

2026-04-25 12:02:48 +04:00

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