Elie Habib 1dc807e70f docs(resilience): PR 4a — SWF classification rubric (tiers + precedents, no manifest changes) (#3376)
* docs(resilience): PR 4a — SWF classification rubric (tiers + precedents, no manifest changes)

PR 4a of cohort-audit plan 2026-04-24-002. First half of the plan's PR 4
(full-manifest re-rate) split into:

- PR 4a (this): pure documentation — central rubric defining tiers
  + concrete precedents per axis. No manifest changes.
- PR 4b (deferred): apply the rubric to revise specific coefficients
  in `scripts/shared/swf-classification-manifest.yaml`. Behaviour-
  changing; belongs in a separate PR with cohort snapshots and
  methodology review.

This split addresses the plan's concern that PR 4 "may not be outcome-
predetermined" by separating the evaluative framework from its
application. PR 4a makes every current manifest value evaluable against
a benchmark; PR 4b applies the benchmark.

Shipped

- `docs/methodology/swf-classification-rubric.md` — new doc.
  Sections:
    1. Introduction + scope (rubric vs manifest boundary)
    2. Access axis: 5 named tiers (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9) w/
       concrete precedents per tier, plus edge cases for
       fiscal-rule caps (Norway GPFG) and state holding
       companies (Temasek)
    3. Liquidity axis: 6 tiers (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0) w/
       precedents + listed-vs-directly-owned real-estate edge case
    4. Transparency axis: 6 tiers grounded in LM Transparency
       Index + IFSWF membership + annual-report granularity, plus
       edge cases for LM=10 w/o holdings-level disclosure and
       sealed filings (KIA)
    5. Current manifest × rubric alignment — 24 coefficients reviewed;
       6 flagged as "arguably higher/lower under the rubric" with
       directional-impact analysis marked INFORMATIONAL, not
       motivation for revision
    6. How-to-use playbook for manifest-edit PRs (add/revise/rubric-
       revise workflows)

Findings (informational only — no PR changes)

Six ratings flagged as potentially under-/over-stated against the
rubric. Per the plan's anti-pattern note (rank-targeted acceptance
criteria), the flags are INFORMATIONAL: a future manifest-edit PR
should revise only when the rubric + cited evidence support the
change, not to hit a target ranking.

Flagged (with directional impact if revised upward):

  - Mubadala access 0.4 → arguably 0.5; transparency 0.6 → 0.7
    (haircut 0.12 → 0.175, +46% access × transparency product)
  - PIF access 0.4 → arguably 0.5; liquidity 0.4 → arguably 0.3
    (net small effect — opposite directions partially cancel)
  - KIA transparency 0.4 → arguably 0.5 (haircut +25%)
  - QIA access 0.4 → arguably 0.5; transparency 0.4 → arguably 0.5
    (haircut +56%)
  - GIC access 0.6 → arguably 0.7 (haircut +17%)

Not flagged: GPFG, ADIA, Temasek (all 9 coefficients align with
their rubric tiers).

Verified

- `npm run test:data` — 6694 pass / 0 fail (unchanged — pure docs PR)
- `npm run typecheck` / `typecheck:api` — green
- `npm run lint:md` — clean

Not in this PR

- Manifest coefficient changes (PR 4b)
- Cohort-sanity snapshot before/after (PR 4b)
- Live-data audit of IFSWF engagement + LM index current values
  (requires web fetch — not in scope for a doc PR)

* fix(resilience): PR 4a review — resolve GIC/ADIA rubric contradictions + flag-count

Addresses P1 + 2 P2 Greptile findings on #3376 (draft).

1. **P1 — GIC tier contradiction.** GIC was listed as a canonical 0.7
   ("Explicit stabilization with rule") precedent AND rated 0.6 in
   the alignment table with an "arguably 0.7" note. That inconsistency
   makes the rubric unusable as-is for PR 4b review. Removed GIC from
   the 0.7 precedent list and explicitly marked it as a 0.7 *candidate*
   (pending PR 4b evaluation), not a 0.7 *precedent*. KIA General
   Reserve Fund stays as the canonical 0.7 example; Norway GPFG
   remains the borderline case for fiscal-rule caps.

2. **P2 — ADIA liquidity midpoint inconsistency.** Methodology text
   said the rubric uses "midpoint" for ranged disclosures and cited
   ADIA 55-70% → 0.7 tier. But midpoint(55-70) = 62.5%, which sits
   in the 0.5 tier band (50-65%). Fixed the methodology to state the
   rubric uses the **upper-bound** of a disclosed range (fund's own
   statement of maximum public-market allocation), which keeps ADIA
   at 0.7 tier (70% upper bound fits 65-85% band). Added forward-
   compatibility note: if future ADIA disclosures tighten the range
   so the upper bound drops below 65%, the rubric directs the rating
   to 0.5.

3. **P2 — Flag-count header.** "(6 of 24 coefficients)" was wrong;
   the enumeration below lists 8 coefficients across 5 funds.
   Corrected to "8 coefficients across 5 funds" with the fund-by-fund
   count inline so the header math is self-verifying.

Verified

- `npm run lint:md` — clean
- `npm run typecheck` — green (pure docs PR, no behaviour change)

This PR remains in draft pending #3380 (PR 3A — net-imports denominator)
merge per the plan's PR 4 → after PR 3A sequencing.
2026-04-24 18:32:17 +04:00

World Monitor

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